North Texas at Rice - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo North Texas Mean Green at Rice OwlsRice logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Rice Stadium - Houston, TX  (American Athletic)

 
Mean Green (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 48 - 13 (33 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 2 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
UNT 2nd straight Road Game
RICE coming off BYE
Our Line: North Texas -12.5   (SP+ UNT -12.5)

Projected Score: UNT: 33 - RICE: 21 (54)
UNT Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
UNT Travel: 262 miles
Owls (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Scott Abell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 21 (24 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 7.2 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 3)
 
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-1.552.5
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-3.5
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-7
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-19
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-16.5
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-12.5
Sat 11/29 North Texas vs Temple-8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Rice's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Rice at Louisiana+14.549.5W 14 - 12UY
Sat 9/6 Rice vs Houston+13.538.5L 9 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Rice vs Prairie View A&M-29.548.5W 38 - 17ON
Thu 9/18 Rice at Charlotte-2.542.5
Sat 9/27 Rice at Navy+14.5
Sat 10/4 Rice vs Florida Atlantic-0.5
Sat 10/11 Rice at UTSA+13.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Rice vs UConn+11.5
Fri 10/31 Rice vs Memphis+23
Sat 11/8 Rice vs UAB-6.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Rice vs North Texas+12.5
Sat 11/29 Rice at South Florida+16.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Rice's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#18 (.4)46% (49)47.750% (40)3.45 (28)15945% (57)2675.7 (6)#14 (-.06)33% (26)13.335% (35)30% (19)2.25 (23)48.70.32.3
RICE#133 (-.03)38% (106)20.344% (76)2.94 (73)24321% (135)703.43 (99)#60 (.11)29% (10)21.333% (24)26% (8)3.38 (62)52.70.70.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
RICE#126 (.05)35% (127)36% (127)2.7 (118)11535% (121)2393.27 (119)#60 (.16)37% (11)40% (37)34% (4)3.72 (62)57.41.81



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense347.73346.5%5.70.3244261592674.841%57%50%45%12%.4
RICE Defense321.32629.3%3.380.7 - - - - - 54%44%33%26%14%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense313.33033.1%2.252.3 - - - - - 64%36%35%30%15%-.06
RICE Offense320.323.538.1%3.430.721313243704.477%21%44%21%13%-.03

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas328:2724.350%67%5.348.70.32.36.32.3039.1
Rice335:1020.737%43%552.70.70.762.7030.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense341% (121)50% (40)33.3159.34.89 (17).42 (9)3.45 (28)57% (114)8% (56)1.28 (20)
RICE Defense354% (102)33% (24) - - - - .09 (81)2.89 (80)55% (24)9% (92)1.31 (124)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense364% (130)35% (35) - - - - -.01 (44)2.44 (38)73% (75)11% (48)1.01 (82)
RICE Offense377% (3)44% (76)56243.34.46 (49)-.06 (124)2.94 (73)75% (52)11% (109)0.61 (132)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense357% (20)45% (57)23.733.7266.77.911.39 (13)0 (1).42 (40)1.6 (61)24% (18)46% (12).8 (10)4% (45)1.9 (88)
RICE Defense344% (32)26% (8) - - - - - - 1 (87).16 (53)2.1 (134)38% (22)32% (88).48 (112)6% (72)2.3 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense336% (7)30% (19) - - - - - - 4 (12)-.13 (12)1.4 (34)37% (29)30% (77).19 (55)3% (118)1.7 (39)
RICE Offense321% (134)21% (135)1013.7705.172 (102)1 (23).12 (113)1.7 (32)32% (81)14% (134)-.09 (133)2% (8)1.9 (81)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 8.28 #59
North Texas's Offense Rating: 13.27 #66
North Texas's Defense Rating: 4.99 #55
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 10.0 - 2.0
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #66
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #101

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 8.28   Rice: -7.93

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 1.2   Rice: -11.2




Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -7.93 #104
Rice's Offense Rating: -0.23 #133
Rice's Defense Rating: 9.43 #78
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Rice's 2025 Expected Record: 4.8 - 7.2
Rice's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.2 #109
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #125
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #83

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 47.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 33
Rice 21


Total Points: 54

Rice Scoring
Offense: 20.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.5
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

Rice's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202211/26North Texas21Rice17North TexasNorth Texas -14.5Rice57.0Under
202110/30Rice24North Texas30North TexasRice -1.5North Texas55.0Under
202011/21North Texas27Rice17North TexasNorth Texas -2.5North Texas65.5Under
201911/23Rice20North Texas14RiceNorth Texas -6.5Rice55.0Under
201810/27North Texas41Rice17North TexasNorth Texas -30Rice58.0Push
201711/25Rice14North Texas30North TexasNorth Texas -12.5North Texas62.5Under
201609/24Rice35North Texas42North TexasRice -7.5North Texas55.0Over
201509/19North Texas24Rice38RiceRice -6Rice54.0Over
201410/25Rice41North Texas21RiceRice -13Rice0
201310/31North Texas28Rice16North TexasNorth Texas -2.5North Texas0
201009/11North Texas31Rice32Rice
200809/27Rice77North Texas20Rice
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Rice552 Overs
North Texas755 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 54 - 63 - 41 - 2
Road Teams5 - 76 - 42 - 14 - 3

(#59) North Texas Info
Power Rating: 8.28 #59
Offense Rating: 13.27 #66
Defense Rating: 4.99 #55
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #27
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #101
Talent Rating: 618.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 10.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.7 PPO
Good Run Success 50%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 33%
Good in Scoring Position 2.25 PPO
Good Run Def Success 35%
Great Pass Def Success 30%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

North Texas has lost 7 straight
North Texas has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

North Texas Notes
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
(7/23) QB Poffenbarger big time @ FCS Albany '23-'24
(3/23) RB rebuild, McGill/Sibley? 3 Portal adds
(3/23) WR rebuild, have 5 exp options. Evans (SHSU)
(3/23) Def bad LY, 9 DL, 7 DB portal adds, new DC
(3/23) New DC Cassity was SHSU DC, Alb Chr before
(3/22) 8 portals from SHSU (4 starters) with DC

North Texas Highlights
North Texas in Undefeated

North Texas offense is explosive (#20)
North Texas has a top Offensive Line (#28)
North Texas offense is good in red zone (#6)
North Texas offense is good on 3rd downs
North Texas has a really good defense (#26)
North Texas defense is really good in red zone (#23)
North Texas has a good pass defense (#19)
North Texas has a great TO Margin (#11)
North Texas defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

North Texas Deficiencies

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatRICEUNT
OverallOver#65#10
OffenseOff#55#27
DefenseDef#76#14
Special TeamsST#81#39
PassingPass#48#8
RushingRush#61#25
Run BlockRBLK#51#47
Pass BlockPBLK#101#45
Route RunningWR Rt#58#46
TacklingTkl#26#4
Run DefenseR Def#97#18
Pass Rush DefPRush#40#68
Coverage DefCov#55#14

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Rice in 2022 (21-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNT | RICE
Depth Chart: UNT | RICE
Rosters: UNT | RICE
(#104) Rice Info
Power Rating: -7.93 #104
Offense Rating: -0.23 #133
Defense Rating: 9.43 #78
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.2 #109
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #125
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #83
Talent Rating: 554.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 4.8 - 7.2

Team Profile
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.43 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Awful Pass Success 21%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.38 PPO
Good Run Def Success 33%
Great Pass Def Success 26%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Rice has lost 7 straight
Rice has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Rice Notes
(8/25) QB1 Chase Jenkins starter, was WR LY at times
(6/6) RB Balthazar (CCU) hurt LY, but will be a factor
(6/6) Pass rush huge ? Have LBs, DB looks decent.
(6/6) QB - Warner left (Fresno). Who can run option?
(6/6) Def was bad, have some exp. 4 portal adds
(6/6) Really hard job, minimal portal. Option great idea
(3/24) HC Abell ran a gun-option system @ Davidson
(3/24) RB - Jackson/Atkins some exp. #1 left (Hou)
(3/24) WR rebuild. Welker/Dickman some exp
(3/24) OL 3/5 back. Bad LY. Took 1 portal

Rice Highlights
Rice has Really Good Running Game (#9)
Rice has a really good defense (#10)
Rice has a good run defense (#24)
Rice has a good pass defense (#8)
Rice has a great TO Margin (#28)

Rice Deficiencies
Rice has a really bad Offense
Rice offense is really bad (#106)
Rice offense is not Explosive (#136)
Rice pass game is really bad (#135)
Rice gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#133)
Rice Does Not Stuff Runs (#115)


  
North Texas's OC Jordan Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker669470%764908.1
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makenzie McGill3117035.527
Jayden Becks (Tr)167824.916
Kiefer Sibley137625.830
Caleb Hawkins136815.216
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young10160216.046
Cameron Dorner9121213.425
Miles Coleman1110809.824
Simeon Evans (Tr)790012.930

View North Texas's Full Roster
North Texas's DC Skyler Cassity
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shane Whitter251030
Trey Fields (Tr)192000
Ethan Wesloski164100
Ethan Day (Tr)122210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)43300
Ethan Day (Tr)122210
Zhaiylen Scott81120
Joshua Pierce (Tr)21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinton Hammonds101001
Bryan Allen Jr.40001
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)81001

Rice's OC Vince Munch
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chase Jenkins273773%182114.9
Drew Devillier3475%28107.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Jackson4621324.617
Daelen Alexander3214904.716
Chase Jenkins4714423.121
Aaron Turner889211.152
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Drayden Dickmann118407.623
Landon Ransom-Goelz457114.334
Aaron Turner73304.713
Tyson Thompson32919.722

View Rice's Full Roster
Rice's DC Jon Kay
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Anthony Morris202100
Andrew Awe183100
Jack Kane (Tr)150001
Peyton Stevenson132000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Daley63202
Joseph Mutombo32210
Ty Anthony Morris202100
Cooper King31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khary Crump80004
Michael Daley63202
Omari Porter60002