North Texas at Rice - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo

North Texas Mean Green at Rice Owls

Rice logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
North Texas -18.5 (57.0) (-1100)  Open: -18.0 | 54.5
North Texas 56 - Rice: 24  (American Athletic)

 
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
UNT 2nd straight Road Game
RICE coming off BYE
Our Line: North Texas -17.5  (SP+ UNT -28.5)

Projected Score: UNT: 39 - RICE: 21 (60)
UNT Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
UNT Travel: 262 miles
Owls (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Abell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 33 (24 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 7.9 (#85)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30North Texas vs Lamar-27.5W51–063.5W51–0UY
Sat 9/6North Texas at Western Michigan-12.0W33–3056.0W33–30ON
Sat 9/13North Texas vs Washington State-6.5W59–1057.5W59–10OY
Sat 9/20North Texas at Army-2.5W45–3850.5W45–38OY
Sat 9/27North Texas vs South Alabama-13.5W36–2263.5W36–22UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/10North Texas vs South Florida-2.5L36–6368.5L36–63ON
Sat 10/18North Texas vs UTSA-4.0W55–1764.5W55–17OY
Fri 10/24North Texas at Charlotte-25.5W54–2060.5W54–20OY
Sat 11/1North Texas vs Navy-6.5W31–1768.5W31–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15North Texas at UAB-17.5W53–2469.5W53–24OY
Sat 11/22North Texas at Rice-18.5W56–2457.0W56–24OY
Fri 11/28North Texas vs Temple-20.0W52–2565.5W52–25OY
Fri 12/5North Texas at Tulane-1.5L21–3466.5L21–34UN
Sat 12/27North Texas vs San Diego State-7.5W49–4755.5W49–47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 4, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Rice's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Rice at Louisiana+14.5W14–1249.5W14–12UY
Sat 9/6Rice vs Houston+13.5L9–3538.5L9–35ON
Sat 9/13Rice vs Prairie View A&M-29.5W38–1748.5W38–17ON
Thu 9/18Rice at Charlotte-1.5W28–1741.5W28–17OY
Sat 9/27Rice at Navy+14.0L13–2145.5L13–21UY
Sat 10/4Rice vs Florida Atlantic-4.5L21–2754.5L21–27UN
Sat 10/11Rice at UTSA+8.5L13–6148.5L13–61ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Rice vs UConn+10.5W37–3448.5W37–34OY
Fri 10/31Rice vs Memphis+13.5L14–3848.5L14–38ON
Sat 11/8Rice vs UAB+1.5W24–1751.5W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Rice vs North Texas+18.5L24–5657.0L24–56ON
Sat 11/29Rice at South Florida+28.5L3–5257.5L3–52UN
Fri 1/2Rice vs Texas State+19.5L10–4155.5L10–41UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Rice's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)45.140% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)26.547% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
RICE#126 (.05)35% (127)19.136% (127)2.7 (118)11535% (121)2393.27 (119)#60 (.16)37% (11)32.940% (37)34% (4)3.72 (62)57.41.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
RICE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1345.143.742.5%3.911.5224511532985.638%62%40%44%15%.23
RICE Defense1232.93237%3.721 - - - - - 55%45%40%34%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1326.528.344.3%4.031.1 - - - - - 54%46%47%42%11%.22
RICE Offense1219.123.935.5%3.271.8183541152394.637%62%36%35%20%.05

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1325:0522.136%48%6.352.51.51.14.51.7128.4
Rice1228:4018.335%35%7.157.41.816.32.7232.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1338% (129)40% (109)27.6153.25.622 (55).17 (44)2.75 (111)58% (128)9% (51)1.25 (4)
RICE Defense1255% (112)40% (37) - - - - .16 (85)3.06 (80)76% (83)11% (45)1.07 (103)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1354% (105)47% (106) - - - - .19 (102)3.29 (111)75% (74)7% (128)0.96 (54)
RICE Offense1237% (132)36% (127)24.8114.54.614 (98)-.03 (126)2.7 (118)86% (3)10% (63)1 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1362% (6)44% (39)25.239.82987.511.931 (6)12 (85).26 (64)1.6 (60)33% (88)34% (35).35 (64)6% (71)2 (93)
RICE Defense1245% (24)34% (4) - - - - - - 8 (93).16 (33)1.7 (109)34% (30)24% (4).19 (23)6% (70)2.1 (81)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1346% (26)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (66).29 (98)1.7 (94)31% (90)30% (72).31 (69)4% (128)2.1 (93)
RICE Offense1262% (4)35% (121)24.339.823969.817 (79)13 (103).11 (121)1.5 (97)38% (129)25% (119).17 (119)10% (133)1.9 (104)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -5.79  #81
North Texas's Offense Rating: 13.55  #65
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.34  #101
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #22
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.1  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 716.1

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -5.79   Rice: -13.535

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 13.8   Rice: -14.8




Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -13.535  #126
Rice's Offense Rating: 2.31  #128
Rice's Defense Rating: 19.58  #105
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00  #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Rice's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 7.9
Rice's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8  #120
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7  #119
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #112

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 716.1


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 39
Rice 21


Projected Total Points: 60
Rice Scoring
Offense: 19.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.9
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32

Rice's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Rice24North Texas56North Texas -18.5North Texas57.0Over
202211/26North Texas21Rice17North Texas -14.5Rice57.0Under
202110/30Rice24North Texas30Rice -1.5North Texas55.0Under
202011/21North Texas27Rice17North Texas -2.5North Texas65.5Under
201911/23Rice20North Texas14North Texas -6.5Rice55.0Under
201810/27North Texas41Rice17North Texas -30Rice58.0Push
201711/25Rice14North Texas30North Texas -12.5North Texas62.5Under
201609/24Rice35North Texas42Rice -7.5North Texas55.0Over
201509/19North Texas24Rice38Rice -6Rice54.0Over
201410/25Rice41North Texas21Rice -13Rice0
201310/31North Texas28Rice16North Texas -2.5North Texas0
201009/11North Texas31Rice32
200809/27Rice77North Texas20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Rice553 Overs
North Texas865 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 64 - 73 - 41 - 3
Road Teams6 - 77 - 43 - 14 - 3

(#81) UNT at (#126) RICE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTRICE
Game ControlGC #91 #71
Momentum ControlMC #94 #34
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #81 #126
SP+SP+ #22 #120
Perf GradeGrade #9 #123
OffenseOff #3 #107
DefenseDef #39 #124
Spec TeamsST #55 #96
TalentTal #91 #107
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
Rice Notes
(10/25) Huge W over UConn, 300 yds rushing, 4 TDs
(10/24) Down to QB4? Won't know QB1 till UConn game
(9/18) Option team w/ a good punter. Love 'em
(9/18) Team is really undersized, but play hard
(9/18) QB Jenkins can scoot, but passing not strong
(8/30) 200+ yds rushing in huge W over Louisiana
(8/25) QB1 Chase Jenkins starter, was WR LY at times
(6/6) RB Balthazar (CCU) hurt LY, but will be a factor
(6/6) Pass rush huge ? Have LBs, DB looks decent.
(6/6) QB - Warner left (Fresno). Who can run option?
(6/6) Def was bad, have some exp. 4 portal adds
(6/6) Really hard job, minimal portal. Option great idea
Rice Injury Report
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffRICE Def
Game ControlGC #96 #83
Momentum ControlMC #85 #7
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #3 #124
SuccessSuc #70 #11
ExplosiveExp #4 #99
PPAPPA #45 #60
PowerPwr #65 #105
SP+SP+ #1 #112
Pts POPPO #69 #62
HavocHav #47 #55
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffRICE Def
Run GameRun #4 #101
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #37
Run ExplRExp #4 #103
PPAExp #44 #85
Run BlockR Blk #11 -
OL YdsOLY #111 #80
Stuff RateStuff #107 #110
TackleTak -  #115
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffRICE Def
Pass GamePass #11 #130
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #4
Pass ExplPExl #60 #109
PPAExp #64 #33
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #17 #76
F7 HavocF7 #51 #45
DB HavocDB #71 #70
Rice on Offense
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCatRICE OffUNT Def
Game ControlGC #53 #89
Momentum ControlMC #91 #90
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #107 #39
SuccessSuc #127 #98
ExplosiveExp #36 #62
PPAPPA #126 #98
PowerPwr #128 #101
SP+SP+ #119 #78
Pts POPPO #119 #93
HavocHav #123 #133
Rice Run Game
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #129 #75
Run SuccessRSuc #127 #106
Run ExplRExp #55 #54
PPAExp #126 #102
Run BlockR Blk #90 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #111
Stuff RateStuff #81 #116
TackleTak -  #3
Rice Pass Game
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCatRICE OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #77 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #121 #79
Pass ExplPExl #97 #94
PPAExp #121 #98
Pass Block/RushP Blk #112 #83
F7 HavocF7 #63 #128
DB HavocDB #133 #128
Program Comparison
RICE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rice Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 74° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 13
North Texas 18.5 (57.0)
North Texas won at Rice this year (56-24)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Rice last year (56-24)

  
UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2311424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1139260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104

RICE's OC Vince Munch (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chase Jenkins11917269%1025926.0
Drew Devillier102148%123105.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Jackson18088964.973
Chase Jenkins15153153.534
Daelen Alexander7439235.357
DAndre Hardeman Jr.7630224.036
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aaron Turner6339846.355
Drayden Dickmann3732338.746
Tyson Thompson8105213.137
Payton Matthews493023.354

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Jon Kay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Awe939432
Ty Anthony Morris799333
Tony Anyanwu638731
Marcus Williams614015
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tony Anyanwu638731
Michael Daley155522
Andrew Awe939432
Ty Anthony Morris799333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omari Porter311018
Khary Crump140006
Marcus Williams614015