Rice at Navy - 2025 Matchup Preview
Rice logo Rice Owls at Navy MidshipmenNavy logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Navy -14 (45.5) (-600)  Open: -14.0
Navy 21 - Rice: 13  (American Athletic)

 
Owls (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Abell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 32 (14 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 7.9 (#85)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Heavy Rain Predicted
RICE 2nd straight Road Game
NAVY coming off BYE
RICE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Navy -15.5  (SP+ NAVY -18)

Projected Score: RICE: 17 - NAVY: 32 (49)
NAVY Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
RICE Travel: 1250 miles, 1 hrs behind
Midshipmen (10 - 2) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 26 (38 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 2.8 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
 
Rice's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Rice at Louisiana+14.549.5W 14 - 12UY
Sat 9/6 Rice vs Houston+13.538.5L 9 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Rice vs Prairie View A&M-29.548.5W 38 - 17ON
Thu 9/18 Rice at Charlotte-1.541.5W 28 - 17OY
Sat 9/27 Rice at Navy+14.045.5L 13 - 21UY
Sat 10/4 Rice vs Florida Atlantic-4.554.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 Rice at UTSA+8.548.5L 13 - 61ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Rice vs UConn+10.548.5W 37 - 34OY
Fri 10/31 Rice vs Memphis+13.548.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Rice vs UAB+1.551.5W 24 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Rice vs North Texas+18.557.0L 24 - 56ON
Sat 11/29 Rice at South Florida+28.557.5L 3 - 52UN
Fri 1/2 Rice vs Texas State+16.555.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Rice's Schedule
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.045.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-13.550.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-10.052.5W 32 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-14.563.5W 42 - 32ON
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+6.568.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+30.554.5L 10 - 49ON
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+8.562.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+3.557.5W 28 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-6.038.0W 17 - 16UN
Fri 1/2 Navy vs Cincinnati-4.054.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
RICE#114 (.09)38% (113)19.840% (101)2.84 (86)21334% (132)983.33 (106)#119 (.25)40% (52)32.341% (55)40% (48)3.8 (82)48.90.70.5
NAVY#16 (.31)49% (11)31.251% (5)3.44 (5)29043% (57)1324.13 (36)#115 (.23)42% (71)2640% (45)45% (111)4.24 (121)51.51.11.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
RICE#126 (.05)35% (127)36% (127)2.7 (118)11535% (121)2393.27 (119)#60 (.16)37% (11)40% (37)34% (4)3.72 (62)57.41.81
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
RICE Offense1219.814.238.3%3.330.718311213984.371%28%40%34%17%.09
NAVY Defense122624.241.9%4.241.1 - - - - - 51%47%40%45%13%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
RICE Defense1232.332.640%3.80.5 - - - - - 48%50%41%40%13%.25
NAVY Offense1231.23848.8%4.131.1204222901325.975%23%51%43%10%.31

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Rice1232:5417.536%55%4.848.90.70.54.81.8026.6
Navy1232:3120.351%67%651.51.11.14.52.2031.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
RICE Offense1271% (4)40% (101)50.3213.34.320 (60).08 (84)2.84 (86)75% (55)13% (131)1 (57)
NAVY Defense1251% (84)40% (45) - - - - .12 (87)2.9 (74)76% (102)8% (111)1.02 (95)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
RICE Defense1248% (49)41% (55) - - - - .15 (94)2.96 (79)64% (19)8% (115)1.15 (132)
NAVY Offense1275% (3)51% (5)49.3289.85.939 (4).3 (7)3.44 (5)80% (17)7% (18)1.09 (24)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
RICE Offense1228% (133)34% (132)11.316.997.95.88.710 (121)3 (7).12 (121)1.6 (37)31% (62)22% (134).09 (130)3% (9)2.1 (41)
NAVY Defense1247% (49)45% (111) - - - - - - 6 (100).41 (127)1.6 (104)31% (88)31% (81).31 (73)4% (127)2 (52)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
RICE Defense1250% (92)40% (48) - - - - - - 3 (100).38 (118)1.9 (135)33% (49)31% (84).44 (128)5% (90)2.5 (135)
NAVY Offense1223% (134)43% (57)8.113.9131.89.516.310 (106)6 (20).45 (13)2 (3)24% (2)33% (40).52 (9)2% (2)2.4 (2)

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -13.50  #124
Rice's Offense Rating: 0.57  #123
Rice's Defense Rating: 14.07  #106
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00  #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Rice's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 7.9
Rice's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3  #119
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.6  #119
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #104

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Rice: -13.50   Navy: 1.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Rice: -14.3   Navy: 4.1




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 1.405  #92
Navy's Offense Rating: 12.11  #51
Navy's Defense Rating: 18.40  #125
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 2.8
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #27
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #89

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Rice Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.6

Rice's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Navy 32
Rice 17


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Navy 30
Rice 19

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Navy 34
Rice 21

Total Points: 55
Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 2
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Navy21Rice13Navy -14Rice45.5Under
202411/02Rice24Navy10Navy -12.5Rice49.0Under
200910/10Rice14Navy63
200510/22Rice9Navy41
200410/23Navy14Rice13
200310/18Rice6Navy38
200210/12Navy10Rice17
200110/13Navy13Rice21
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy500 Overs
Rice322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 51 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams5 - 31 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#124) RICE at (#92) NAVY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatRICENAVY
Power RatePwr #124 #92
SP+SP+ #119 #57
Perf GradeGrade #124 #66
OffenseOff #100 #28
DefenseDef #128 #121
Spec TeamsST #94 #71
TalentTal #107 #136
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Rice Notes
(10/25) Huge W over UConn, 300 yds rushing, 4 TDs
(10/24) Down to QB4? Won't know QB1 till UConn game
(9/18) Option team w/ a good punter. Love 'em
(9/18) Team is really undersized, but play hard
(9/18) QB Jenkins can scoot, but passing not strong
(8/30) 200+ yds rushing in huge W over Louisiana
(8/25) QB1 Chase Jenkins starter, was WR LY at times
(6/6) RB Balthazar (CCU) hurt LY, but will be a factor
(6/6) Pass rush huge ? Have LBs, DB looks decent.
(6/6) QB - Warner left (Fresno). Who can run option?
(6/6) Def was bad, have some exp. 4 portal adds
(6/6) Really hard job, minimal portal. Option great idea
Rice Injury Report
Navy Notes
(11/28) A gauntlet November ends w/ 2-2 record. Impressive
(11/28) 2 straight wins w/ impressive Def improvement.
(11/16) Run over by ND, Horvath didn't play. Def ugly
(11/16) Come back and kill USF? Mids are wild, AAC threat
(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
Navy Injury Report
Rice on Offense
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffNAVY Def
Perf GradePerf #100 #121
SuccessSuc #113 #71
ExplosiveExp #127 #110
PPAPPA #114 #115
PowerPwr #123 #125
SP+SP+ #119 #89
Pts POPPO #106 #121
HavocHav #92 #125
Rice Run Game
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #112 #119
Run SuccessRSuc #101 #45
Run ExplRExp #57 #95
PPAExp #84 #87
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLY #86 #74
Stuff RateStuff #69 #83
TackleTak -  #134
Rice Pass Game
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #88 #124
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #111
Pass ExplPExl #37 #104
PPAExp #121 #127
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #127 #73
F7 HavocF7 #131 #111
DB HavocDB #9 #127
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCatNAVY OffRICE Def
Perf GradePerf #28 #128
SuccessSuc #11 #52
ExplosiveExp #54 #136
PPAPPA #16 #119
PowerPwr #51 #106
SP+SP+ #27 #104
Pts POPPO #36 #82
HavocHav #4 #113
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffRICE Def
Run GameRun #17 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #5 #55
Run ExplRExp #24 #132
PPAExp #7 #94
Run BlockR Blk #37 -
OL YdsOLY #5 #79
Stuff RateStuff #1 #84
TackleTak -  #77
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCatNAVY OffRICE Def
Pass GamePass #33 #132
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #48
Pass ExplPExl #3 #135
PPAExp #13 #118
Pass Block/RushP Blk #113 #66
F7 HavocF7 #18 #115
DB HavocDB #2 #90
Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

RICE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain
Temp: 73° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.091
Rematch from Week 5
Navy -14.0 (45.5)
Navy won vs Rice this year (21-13)

Previous Matchups
Rice beat Navy last year (24-10)

  
RICE's OC Vince Munch (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chase Jenkins11917269%1025926.0
Drew Devillier102148%123105.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Jackson16481164.973
Chase Jenkins15153153.534
Daelen Alexander7439235.357
DAndre Hardeman Jr.7229624.136
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aaron Turner5337437.155
Drayden Dickmann3732338.746
Tyson Thompson8105213.137
Quinton Jackson474118.575

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Jon Kay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Awe887322
Ty Anthony Morris738332
Marcus Williams614015
Tony Anyanwu527531
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tony Anyanwu527531
Michael Daley155522
Andrew Awe887322
Ty Anthony Morris738332
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omari Porter301018
Khary Crump140006
Marcus Williams614015

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath8814461%147210610.2
Braxton Woodson91947%110005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath2081147155.559
Alex Tecza14282295.876
Eli Heidenreich6743736.525
Brandon Chatman5541537.536
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich46877519.182
Brandon Chatman1615809.927
Cody Howard4128132.065
Alex Tecza12123110.329

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker937230
Giuseppe Sessi761000
Luke Pirris757443
Coleman Cauley683020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson588670
Julian Moutome375423
Adam Klenk305451
Luke Pirris757443
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha241007
Justin Ross322134
Luke Pirris757443