Texas State at Rice - 2023 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, December 26th 2023 (5:30 PM EST)
Texas State -3.5 (58.5) (-195) Open: -4.5 | 60.0
Texas State 45 - Rice: 21 (SERVPRO First Responder Bowl)

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 33 (32 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Texas State -0.5 (SP+ TXST -4.5)
Projected Score: TXST: 31 - RICE: 31 (62)
TXST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 151 miles

Owls (6 - 7) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Bloomgren (18 - 40)
Avg Score : 30 - 28 (34 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
TXST Players
RICE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Rice's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Rice at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 10 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Rice vs Houston	+7.5	51.0	W 43 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Rice vs Texas Southern	-35.5	60.0	W 59 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Rice at South Florida	-2.5	56.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/30	Rice vs East Carolina	-3.5	47.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Rice vs UConn	-10.0	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/19	Rice at Tulsa	+3.0	56.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Rice vs Tulane	+10.0	55.0	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Rice vs SMU	+12.0	59.5	L 31 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Rice at UTSA	+13.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/18	Rice at Charlotte	+0.5	46.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Rice vs Florida Atlantic	-5.0	46.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Tue 12/26	Rice vs Texas State	+3.5	58.5	L 21 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#23 (.29)	47% (20)	36.7	46% (36)	3.19 (53)	188	48% (15)	271	4.55 (19)	#64 (.18)	40% (45)	32.8	39% (37)	42% (77)	3.7 (59)	68	1.8	1.7
RICE	#52 (.22)	44% (49)	29.5	43% (70)	3.01 (87)	110	45% (32)	252	4.81 (9)	#63 (.17)	41% (57)	28.1	44% (83)	39% (33)	3.61 (52)	49.4	2	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)		49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)		38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2
RICE	#126 (.05)	35% (127)		36% (127)	2.7 (118)	115	35% (121)	239	3.27 (119)	#60 (.16)	37% (11)		40% (37)	34% (4)	3.72 (62)	57.4	1.8	1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	13	36.7	31.5	46.7%	4.55	1.8	24	459	188	271	4.6	51%	48%	46%	48%	15%	.29
RICE Defense	13	28.1	27.1	41.2%	3.61	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	44%	39%	12%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	13	32.8	38.2	40.4%	3.7	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	39%	42%	19%	.18
RICE Offense	13	29.5	34.3	43.7%	4.81	2	19	363	110	252	3.7	41%	58%	43%	45%	17%	.22

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	13	29:04	23.9	44%	66%	7.2	68	1.8	1.7	7.7	2.6	4	29.1
Rice	13	30:59	18.8	38%	67%	5.8	49.4	2	0.9	3.8	1.3	1	28.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	13	51% (56)	46% (36)	40.5	187.8	4.6	33 (8)	.24 (21)	3.19 (53)	78% (31)	11% (84)	1.13 (15)
RICE Defense	13	52% (93)	44% (83)	-	-	-	-	.19 (99)	3.15 (80)	73% (66)	7% (125)	1.01 (79)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	13	50% (69)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	.12 (56)	2.87 (28)	54% (3)	14% (6)	1.21 (127)
RICE Offense	13	41% (120)	43% (70)	29.8	110.5	3.7	21 (54)	.12 (86)	3.01 (87)	65% (118)	10% (59)	0.96 (89)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	13	48% (73)	48% (15)	22.1	33	270.9	8.2	12.3	24 (41)	9 (40)	.36 (36)	1.5 (97)	32% (63)	36% (22)	.47 (24)	4% (8)	2 (80)
RICE Defense	13	48% (42)	39% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.21 (34)	1.6 (53)	33% (49)	29% (44)	.24 (34)	5% (109)	2 (53)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	13	49% (68)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.27 (66)	1.7 (109)	36% (10)	36% (123)	.42 (113)	5% (117)	2 (47)
RICE Offense	13	58% (13)	45% (32)	20.6	33.2	252.5	7.6	12.3	29 (18)	16 (121)	.34 (45)	1.6 (54)	32% (74)	32% (60)	.32 (71)	7% (103)	2.1 (47)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06 Rice: -3.59

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0 Rice: -8.3

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -3.59 #57
Rice's Offense Rating: 21.53 #29
Rice's Defense Rating: 10.32 #76
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Rice's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Rice's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #95
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #63
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #106

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.5
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.2

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 31
Rice 31

Total Points: 62

Rice Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.3
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Rice's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/26	Rice	21	Texas State	45	Texas State	Texas State -3.5	Texas State	58.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Rice	0	0	1 Overs
Texas State	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

Texas State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Responder Bowl	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21

Rice Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Responder Bowl	Rice vs Texas State	+3.5	58.5	L 21 - 45
2022	Lendingtree Bowl	Rice vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	L 24 - 38

(#77) Texas State Info
Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20

Texas State has played in 2 Bowls in the last 5 years (2 - 0)
Texas State has played in 2 Bowls since 2000 (2 - 0)

Texas State Highlights
Texas State has Really Good Running Game (#16)
Texas State offense is efficent (#32)
Texas State offense is good in red zone (#30)
Texas State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Texas State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#41)
Texas State Defensive Line is very good (#119)
Texas State Front 7 is disruptive (#80)

Texas State Deficiencies
Texas State has a bad TO Margin (#54)
Texas State Fumbles a Lot (#89)
Texas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
Texas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Texas State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#123)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	RICE	TXST
OverallOver	#75	#37
OffenseOff	#86	#45
DefenseDef	#58	#43
Special TeamsST	#71	#45
PassingPass	#92	#28
RushingRush	#60	#38
Run BlockRBLK	#72	#79
Pass BlockPBLK	#110	#67
Route RunningWR Rt	#32	#35
TacklingTkl	#54	#104
Run DefenseR Def	#80	#66
Pass Rush DefPRush	#70	#9
Coverage DefCov	#37	#39

Rematch from Week 1
Texas State 3.5 (58.5)
Texas State won at Rice this year (45-21)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Rice in 2023 (45-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | RICE
Depth Chart: TXST | RICE
Rosters: TXST | RICE

(#57) Rice Info
Power Rating: -3.59 #57
Offense Rating: 21.53 #29
Defense Rating: 10.32 #76
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #95
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #63
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #106
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90

Rice has played in 2 Bowls in the last 5 years (0 - 2)
Rice has played in 7 Bowls since 2000 (3 - 4)

Rice Highlights
Rice offense is good in red zone (#99)

Rice Deficiencies
Rice has a bad TO Margin (#28)
Rice Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Rice Can Not Run the Ball (#9)
Rice throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
Rice does not Sack the QB (#31)

Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	279	414	67%	3439	24	8	8.3
Malik Hornsby	8	15	53%	83	0	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	223	1331	10	6.0	65
Donerio Davenport	91	461	2	5.1	43
Malik Hornsby	35	229	6	6.5	31
Jahmyl Jeter	41	173	9	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	76	895	8	11.8	83
Ashtyn Hawkins	55	874	3	15.9	48
Kole Wilson (Tr)	66	747	8	11.3	77
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	20	275	1	13.8	89

View Texas State's Full Roster

Texas State's DC Jonathan Patke

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Holloway	105	16	2	8	0
Shawn Holton (Tr)	92	0	0	0	1
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	0	5
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6
Tavian Coleman (Tr)	28	8	4	1
Deven Wright (Tr)	19	4	3	2
Sam Latham (Tr)	15	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	22	1	0	8
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)	32	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	5

Rice's OC Marques Tuiasosopo

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JT Daniels (Tr)	181	287	63%	2443	21	7	8.5
AJ Padgett	71	117	61%	721	8	6	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors	121	771	7	6.4	57
Juma Otoviano	92	326	4	3.5	24
Luke McCaffrey	15	117	0	7.8	40
Ari Broussard	29	91	0	3.1	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke McCaffrey	71	992	13	14.0	51
Dean Connors	43	403	3	9.4	80
Boden Groen	39	383	3	9.8	31
Landon Ransom-Goelz	26	380	3	14.6	44

View Rice's Full Roster

Rice's DC Brian Smith

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myron Morrison	68	3	1	4	0
Plae Wyatt	65	3	1	2	5
Gabe Taylor	46	1	1	2	8
Chris Conti	45	3	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chike Anigbogu	18	3	2	0	0
De'Braylon Carroll	38	8	2	5	0
Jonathan Jean	34	4	2	0	1
DJ Arkansas	31	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Shon Devones	38	2	0	0	9
Gabe Taylor	46	1	1	2	8
Tyson Flowers	23	2	1	0	5