Texas State at Rice - 2023 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, December 26th 2023 (5:30 PM EST)
Texas State -3.5 (58.5) (-195) Open: -4.5 | 60.0
Texas State 45 - Rice: 21 (SERVPRO First Responder Bowl)

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Texas State -0.5 (SP+ TXST -4.5)
Projected Score: TXST: 30 - RICE: 29 (59)
TXST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 214 miles

Owls (6 - 7) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Bloomgren (18 - 40)
Avg Score : 19 - 33 (24 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
TXST Players
RICE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Rice's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Rice at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 10 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Rice vs Houston	+7.5	51.0	W 43 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Rice vs Texas Southern	-35.5	60.0	W 59 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Rice at South Florida	-2.5	56.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/30	Rice vs East Carolina	-3.5	47.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Rice vs UConn	-10.0	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/19	Rice at Tulsa	+3.0	56.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Rice vs Tulane	+10.0	55.0	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Rice vs SMU	+12.0	59.5	L 31 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Rice at UTSA	+13.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/18	Rice at Charlotte	+0.5	46.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Rice vs Florida Atlantic	-5.0	46.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Tue 12/26	Rice vs Texas State	+3.5	58.5	L 21 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	29	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1
RICE	.16	42%	19.1	41%	2.99	141	44%	233	3.56	.32	44%	32.9	45%	44%	4.38	53.7	2.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
RICE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	34.2	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11
RICE Defense	13	32.9	32	44.1%	4.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	45%	44%	15%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	29	32.8	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13
RICE Offense	13	19.1	23.9	41.9%	3.56	2.5	20	374	141	233	4	51%	47%	41%	44%	20%	.16

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9
Rice	13	32:49	20.1	42%	44%	6.1	53.7	2.5	1.5	4.1	1.5	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84
RICE Defense	13	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.28	3.47	67%	9%	1.22

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95
RICE Offense	13	51%	41%	35.4	141.4	4	17	.15	2.99	83%	11%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2
RICE Defense	13	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.41	1.8	31%	33%	.43	6%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8
RICE Offense	13	47%	44%	17.9	31	232.8	7.5	13	23	20	.23	1.6	33%	32%	.28	9%	2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 484.79 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06 Rice: -3.59

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0 Rice: -8.3

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -3.59 #57
Rice's Offense Rating: 21.53 #29
Rice's Defense Rating: 10.32 #76
2023 Talent Rating: 466.78 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Rice's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Rice's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #95
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #63
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #106

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 30
Rice 29

Projected Total Points: 59

Rice Scoring
Offense: 19.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.9
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32

Rice's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	01/02	Texas State	41	Rice	10	Texas State -19.5	Texas State	55.5	Under
2023	12/26	Rice	21	Texas State	45	Texas State -3.5	Texas State	58.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Rice	0	0	1 Overs
Texas State	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

Texas State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Responder Bowl	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21

Rice Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Responder Bowl	Rice vs Texas State	+3.5	58.5	L 21 - 45
2022	Lendingtree Bowl	Rice vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	L 24 - 38

(#77) TXST at (#57) RICE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	RICE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#77	#57
SP+SP+	#79	#95
Perf GradeGrade	#45	#91
OffenseOff	#48	#102
DefenseDef	#51	#73
Spec TeamsST	#53	#90
TalentTal	#94	#100
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Texas State Injury Report

Rice Injury Report

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	RICE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#48	#73
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#21	#76
SP+SP+	#47	#106
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	RICE Def
Run GameRun	#53	#94
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#62

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	RICE Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Rice on Offense


CategoryCat	RICE Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#102	#51
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#29	#91
SP+SP+	#63	#114
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Rice Run Game


CategoryCat	RICE Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#84	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#122

Rice Pass Game


CategoryCat	RICE Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#109	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#127	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
RICE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Texas State 3.5 (58.5)
Texas State won at Rice this year (45-21)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Rice last year (41-10)
Texas State beat Rice in 2023 (45-21)

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	279	414	67%	3439	24	8	8.3
Malik Hornsby	8	15	53%	83	0	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	223	1331	10	6.0	65
Donerio Davenport	91	461	2	5.1	43
Malik Hornsby	35	229	6	6.5	31
Jahmyl Jeter	41	173	9	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	76	895	8	11.8	83
Ashtyn Hawkins	55	874	3	15.9	48
Kole Wilson (Tr)	66	747	8	11.3	77
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	20	275	1	13.8	89

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Holloway	105	16	2	8	0
Shawn Holton (Tr)	92	0	0	0	1
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	0	5
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6
Tavian Coleman (Tr)	28	8	4	1
Deven Wright (Tr)	19	4	3	2
Sam Latham (Tr)	15	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	22	1	0	8
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)	32	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	5

RICE's OC Marques Tuiasosopo (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JT Daniels (Tr)	181	287	63%	2443	21	7	8.5
AJ Padgett	71	117	61%	721	8	6	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors	121	771	7	6.4	57
Juma Otoviano	92	326	4	3.5	24
Luke McCaffrey	15	117	0	7.8	40
Ari Broussard	29	91	0	3.1	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke McCaffrey	71	992	13	14.0	51
Dean Connors	43	403	3	9.4	80
Boden Groen	39	383	3	9.8	31
Landon Ransom-Goelz	26	380	3	14.6	44

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Brian Smith (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myron Morrison	68	3	1	4	0
Plae Wyatt	65	3	1	2	5
Gabe Taylor	46	1	1	2	8
Chris Conti	45	3	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chike Anigbogu	18	3	2	0	0
De'Braylon Carroll	38	8	2	5	0
Jonathan Jean	34	4	2	0	1
DJ Arkansas	31	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Shon Devones	38	2	0	0	9
Gabe Taylor	46	1	1	2	8
Tyson Flowers	23	2	1	0	5