Texas State at Rice - 2023 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, December 26th 2023 (5:30 PM EST)
Texas State -3.5 (58.5) (-195) Open: -4.5 | 60.0
Texas State 45 - Rice: 21 (SERVPRO First Responder Bowl)

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Texas State -0.5 (SP+ TXST -4.5)
Projected Score: TXST: 28 - RICE: 28 (54)
TXST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 151 miles

Owls (6 - 7) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Bloomgren (18 - 40)
Avg Score : 22 - 25 (32 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
TXST Players
RICE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Rice's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Rice at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 10 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Rice vs Houston	+7.5	51.0	W 43 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Rice vs Texas Southern	-35.5	60.0	W 59 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Rice at South Florida	-2.5	56.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/30	Rice vs East Carolina	-3.5	47.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Rice vs UConn	-10.0	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/19	Rice at Tulsa	+3.0	56.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Rice vs Tulane	+10.0	55.0	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Rice vs SMU	+12.0	59.5	L 31 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Rice at UTSA	+13.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/18	Rice at Charlotte	+0.5	46.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Rice vs Florida Atlantic	-5.0	46.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Tue 12/26	Rice vs Texas State	+3.5	58.5	L 21 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	24.5	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1
RICE	.16	42%	22.2	41%	2.99	141	44%	233	3.56	.32	44%	25.4	45%	44%	4.38	53.7	2.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
RICE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	33.8	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11
RICE Defense	13	25.4	21.2	44.1%	4.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	45%	44%	15%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	24.5	24	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13
RICE Offense	13	22.2	31.8	41.9%	3.56	2.5	20	374	141	233	4	51%	47%	41%	44%	20%	.16

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9
Rice	13	32:49	20.1	42%	44%	6.1	53.7	2.5	1.5	4.1	1.5	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84
RICE Defense	13	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.28	3.47	67%	9%	1.22

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95
RICE Offense	13	51%	41%	35.4	141.4	4	17	.15	2.99	83%	11%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2
RICE Defense	13	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.41	1.8	31%	33%	.43	6%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8
RICE Offense	13	47%	44%	17.9	31	232.8	7.5	13	23	20	.23	1.6	33%	32%	.28	9%	2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 140.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06 Rice: -3.59

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0 Rice: -8.3

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -3.59 #57
Rice's Offense Rating: 21.53 #29
Rice's Defense Rating: 10.32 #76
2023 Talent Rating: 498.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Rice's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Rice's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #95
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #63
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #106

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 492.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 28
Rice 28

Projected Total Points: 54

Rice Scoring
Offense: 22.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.8
Defense: 25.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.2

Rice's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/26	Rice	21	Texas State	45	Texas State	Texas State -3.5	Texas State	58.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Rice	0	0	1 Overs
Texas State	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

Texas State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Responder Bowl	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21

Rice Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Responder Bowl	Rice vs Texas State	+3.5	58.5	L 21 - 45
2022	Lendingtree Bowl	Rice vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	L 24 - 38

(#77) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114
Talent Rating: 140.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20

Team Profile

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Texas State has played in 2 Bowls in the last 5 years (2 - 0)
Texas State has played in 2 Bowls since 2000 (2 - 0)

Texas State Ratings Matchup Rice

Power #77

#57

Off #21

#29

Def #91

#76

Talent #131

#89

SP+ #79

#95

SP+ Off #47

#63

SP+ Def #114

#106

Rematch from Week 1
Texas State 3.5 (58.5)
Texas State won at Rice this year (45-21)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Rice in 2023 (45-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 53° - Wind: 9 mph

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | RICE
Depth Chart: TXST | RICE
Rosters: TXST | RICE

(#57) Rice Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.59 #57
Offense Rating: 21.53 #29
Defense Rating: 10.32 #76
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #95
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #63
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #106
Talent Rating: 498.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90

Team Profile

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Rice has played in 2 Bowls in the last 5 years (0 - 2)
Rice has played in 7 Bowls since 2000 (3 - 4)

Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donerio Davenport	31	107	1	3.5	12
Malik Hornsby	5	86	1	17.2	73
TJ Finley	11	20	0	1.8	8
Joey Hobert (Tr)	3	6	0	2.0	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	70	680	8	9.7	40
Ashtyn Hawkins	45	567	5	12.6	35
Konner Fox (Tr)	14	143	1	10.2	23
Drew Donley (Tr)	1	60	1	60.0	60

View Texas State's Full Roster

Texas State's DC Jonathan Patke

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kenny Haynes	35	2	0	0
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	29	1	0	0
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Kenny Haynes	35	2	0	0
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	29	1	0	0
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3
Ronnie Hamrick II	5	0	0	1

Rice's OC Marques Tuiasosopo

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG
Christian Francisco	19	78	4.1	14
Kobie Campbell	1	40	40.0	40
Matt Sykes (Tr)	2	-4	-2.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matt Sykes (Tr)	65	795	5	12.2	37
Kobie Campbell	32	372	1	11.6	33
Elijah Mojarro	22	215	3	9.8	41
Boden Groen	12	94	0	7.8	21

View Rice's Full Roster

Rice's DC Brian Smith

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sean Fresch	47	1	0	0	8
Gabe Taylor	45	7	3	0	6
Josh Pearcy	35	6	4	4	0
Myron Morrison	29	6	2	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josh Pearcy	35	6	4	4	0
Gabe Taylor	45	7	3	0	6
Michael Larbie	9	4	2	4	0
Myron Morrison	29	6	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sean Fresch	47	1	0	0	8
Gabe Taylor	45	7	3	0	6
Chike Anigbogu	10	3	1	2	2