Colorado State at Boise State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Colorado State logo Colorado State Rams at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID  (Mountain West)

 
Rams (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (16 - 20)
Avg Score : 21 - 28 (21 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
CSU 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Boise State -14.5   (SP+ BSU -16)

Projected Score: CSU: 21 - BSU: 35 (56)
BSU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
CSU Travel: 606 miles
Broncos (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (51 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 3.1 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.559.5
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-3
Sat 10/4 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.5
Sat 10/11 Colorado State vs Fresno State-1.5
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-4
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+3.5
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico-5
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+14.5
Sat 11/29 Colorado State vs Air Force-8

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-17
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+16.5
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-22
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-8.5
Sat 10/25 Boise State at Nevada-19
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State-7.5
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-14.5
Sat 11/29 Boise State at Utah State-14.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#87 (.15)47% (47)2157% (15)3.14 (51)15836% (110)1614.2 (57)#70 (.14)43% (94)27.543% (88)44% (97)3.93 (86)5731.5
BSU#75 (.19)47% (42)2954% (25)2.97 (71)22541% (89)2832.81 (120)#65 (.12)29% (9)2431% (16)27% (12)4.56 (107)561.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Offense2212146.6%4.23223181581614.353%45%57%36%18%.15
BSU Defense2241429.2%4.561 - - - - - 47%53%31%27%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Defense227.53843.1%3.931.5 - - - - - 60%40%43%44%16%.14
BSU Offense2295147.1%2.811.5245082252835.848%52%54%41%16%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Colorado State226:562235%50%7.55731.55.51.5029.8
Boise State232:2223.543%29%7561.5172.5033
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Offense253% (51)57% (15)36.5157.54.35 (62).12 (78)3.14 (51)75% (52)12% (111)0.73 (122)
BSU Defense247% (47)31% (16) - - - - .15 (102)2.85 (77)57% (28)13% (33)1.65 (135)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Defense260% (124)43% (88) - - - - .05 (65)2.45 (40)73% (77)10% (78)0.98 (77)
BSU Offense248% (84)54% (25)38.52255.85 (62).16 (60)2.97 (71)80% (36)10% (86)0.84 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Offense245% (89)36% (110)15.529.5160.55.410.41 (123)2 (60).27 (73)1.7 (31)33% (94)28% (94).36 (60)7% (111)2.6 (7)
BSU Defense253% (92)27% (12) - - - - - - 1 (87).1 (37)2 (129)50% (2)21% (30).2 (56)4% (104)2.8 (131)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Defense240% (13)44% (97) - - - - - - 1 (87).26 (87)1.6 (92)29% (106)28% (58).17 (46)7% (53)2.4 (123)
BSU Offense252% (51)41% (89)2238.5282.57.312.83 (90)0 (1).22 (81)1.4 (98)36% (115)35% (45).04 (120)6% (86)1 (136)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -2.18 #84
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 9.58 #83
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 11.77 #88
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #113
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -2.18   Boise State: 7.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -12.3   Boise State: 3.9




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 7.1 #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Boise State's Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 21 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 35
Colorado State 21


Total Points: 56

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 14

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/14Colorado State31Boise State30Colorado StateBoise State -7.5Colorado State60.0Over
202210/29Boise State49Colorado State10Boise StateBoise State -25Boise State42.5Over
202110/30Colorado State19Boise State28Boise StateBoise State -2Boise State51.5Under
202011/12Boise State52Colorado State21Boise StateBoise State -14.5Boise State62.0Over
201911/29Colorado State24Boise State31Boise StateBoise State -13.5Colorado State56.5Under
201810/19Boise State56Colorado State28Boise StateBoise State -24Boise State63.5Over
201711/11Colorado State52Boise State59Boise StateBoise State -6.5Boise State59.0Over
201610/15Boise State28Colorado State23Boise StateBoise State -25.5Colorado State59.5Under
201510/10Colorado State10Boise State41Boise StateBoise State -12Boise State60.0Under
201409/06Boise State37Colorado State24Boise StateBoise State -8Boise State0
201311/02Colorado State30Boise State42Boise StateBoise State -10Boise State0
201211/17Boise State42Colorado State14Boise State
201110/15Colorado State13Boise State63Boise State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State1285 Overs
Colorado State134 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 66 - 54 - 12 - 4
Road Teams6 - 75 - 64 - 21 - 4

(#84) Colorado State Info
Power Rating: -2.18 #84
Offense Rating: 9.58 #83
Defense Rating: 11.77 #88
Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #113
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #113
Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 47%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.2 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Poor Pass Success 36%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.93 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Colorado State has lost 8 straight
Colorado State has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Colorado State Notes
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
(8/1) RB Marshall OK LY, passed by L Avant in spring
(8/1) WR returns #2, 3 portal adds, TE big ?
(8/1) Def bad LY, replacing a ton. 10 portal adds
(8/1) New DC Summers (WKU), Takeaway king
(8/1) Direction of Offense a big ? under OC Mumme
(8/1) Too many ?s for me, lack identity w/o big WR
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, decent LY. No portal adds

Colorado State Highlights
Colorado State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#28)

Colorado State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#20)

Colorado State Deficiencies
Colorado State has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Colorado State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
Colorado State Can Not Run the Ball (#120)
Colorado State offense is not Explosive (#116)
Colorado State pass game is really bad (#110)
Colorado State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Colorado State does not Sack the QB (#112)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBSUCSU
OverallOver#53#101
OffenseOff#40#63
DefenseDef#62#107
Special TeamsST#85#110
PassingPass#64#106
RushingRush#21#30
Run BlockRBLK#17#10
Pass BlockPBLK#72#42
Route RunningWR Rt#72#97
TacklingTkl#110#16
Run DefenseR Def#66#107
Pass Rush DefPRush#64#101
Coverage DefCov#51#97

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Boise State in 2023 (31-30)
Boise State beat Colorado State in 2022 (49-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: CSU | BSU
Depth Chart: CSU | BSU
Rosters: CSU | BSU
(#67) Boise State Info
Power Rating: 7.1 #67
Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.81 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.56 PPO
Great Run Def Success 31%
Great Pass Def Success 27%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Boise State has lost 8 straight
Boise State has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Boise State Notes
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
(7/31) Def tackling was a big issue LY, not a fan of DC
(6/8) RB Sherrod had 960 yds rush, 44/260 rec in '23
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs

Boise State Highlights
Boise State is Undefeated at Home
Boise State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Boise State has a really good defense (#9)
Boise State has a good run defense (#16)
Boise State has a good pass defense (#12)

Boise State Deficiencies
Boise State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Boise State offense is not Explosive (#112)
Boise State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#126)
Boise State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#120)
Boise State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#136)
Boise State has a bad red zone defense (#107)


  
Colorado State's OC Matt Mumme
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi305753%312125.5
Tay Lanier11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree2815015.420
Lloyd Avant (Tr)158025.320
Justin Marshall83704.67
Javion Kinnard222011.021
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaxxon Warren795113.627
Armani Winfield449012.317
Tommy Maher53807.615
Lavon Brown336012.016

View Colorado State's Full Roster
Colorado State's DC Tyson Summers
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long241000
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)122001
Lemondre Joe (Tr)112213
Robert Edmonson101100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)112213
Robert Edmonson101100
Gabe Jones (Tr)31100
Owen Long241000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)112213
Jahari Rogers (Tr)60002
Drew Rodriguez10001

Boise State's OC Nate Potter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen417257%532307.4
Max Cutforth3560%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley13143111.077
Sire Gaines2314216.246
Malik Sherrod (Tr)186913.820
Maddux Madsen156614.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Marshall6151125.246
Ben Ford7126218.060
Matt Lauter880010.020
Latrell Caples569013.816

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield153000
Marco Notarainni131040
Jeremiah Earby111100
Zion Washington110001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braxton Fely82200
Lopez Sanusi21100
Dion Washington (Tr)31100
Max Stege31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy10002
Zion Washington110001
Travis Anderson10001