Colorado State at Boise State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Colorado State logo Colorado State Rams at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Boise State -17.5 (46.5) (-1000)  Open: -16.5 | 45.5
Boise State 49 - Colorado State: 21  (Mountain West)

 
Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Tyson Summers (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
CSU 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Boise State -18.5  (SP+ BSU -20)

Projected Score: CSU: 15 - BSU: 33 (48)
BSU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
CSU Travel: 606 miles
Broncos (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (41 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#24)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.558.5L 16 - 17UY
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-4.548.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 10/3 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.540.5L 24 - 45ON
Fri 10/10 Colorado State vs Fresno State+5.547.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-2.553.5L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+5.546.5L 0 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+5.560.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico+15.553.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+17.546.5L 21 - 49ON
Fri 11/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+2.547.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 7, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 6, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.551.5W 49 - 37OY
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-16.559.5W 47 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+21.563.5L 7 - 28UY
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-14.558.5W 41 - 25OY
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-12.560.5W 56 - 31OY
Fri 10/24 Boise State at Nevada-20.551.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-17.547.5L 7 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State+1.541.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-17.546.5W 49 - 21OY
Fri 11/28 Boise State at Utah State-1.554.5W 25 - 24UN
Fri 12/5 Boise State vs UNLV-6.060.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 12/13 Boise State vs Washington+8.551.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#94 (.13)40% (97)18.544% (66)2.97 (64)10838% (110)2163.52 (89)#113 (.24)45% (118)30.846% (108)46% (116)4.03 (101)56.31.71.3
BSU#38 (.22)42% (70)31.443% (74)3.12 (37)18941% (77)2443.88 (59)#46 (.11)36% (12)2340% (49)32% (5)4.11 (107)61.71.21.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Offense1218.516.640.3%3.521.7183241082163.645%54%44%38%19%.13
BSU Defense132322.336%4.111.7 - - - - - 52%46%40%32%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Defense1230.83645.3%4.031.3 - - - - - 57%42%46%46%13%.24
BSU Offense1331.441.342.3%3.881.2234331892444.752%47%43%41%14%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Colorado State1226:5018.333%47%5.856.31.71.33.81.3126
Boise State1332:5422.647%52%761.71.21.75.91.8330.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Offense1245% (107)44% (66)30.3108.33.613 (70).09 (77)2.97 (64)59% (131)12% (122)0.9 (91)
BSU Defense1352% (101)40% (49) - - - - .19 (115)2.95 (81)67% (38)11% (33)1.22 (134)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Defense1257% (131)46% (108) - - - - .17 (104)3.26 (123)77% (108)7% (128)0.94 (61)
BSU Offense1352% (50)43% (74)40.2188.84.729 (30).17 (42)3.12 (37)79% (21)8% (43)1.01 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Offense1254% (29)38% (110)20.332.8215.96.610.715 (103)12 (7).2 (96)1.5 (90)35% (128)28% (88).25 (91)7% (111)2 (86)
BSU Defense1346% (41)32% (5) - - - - - - 14 (22).06 (6)1.7 (110)37% (7)27% (34).21 (33)6% (79)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Defense1242% (7)46% (116) - - - - - - 8 (31).38 (119)1.7 (123)27% (129)35% (125).34 (92)6% (60)1.9 (30)
BSU Offense1347% (81)41% (77)19.433244.27.412.622 (22)9 (88).28 (57)1.6 (41)33% (94)32% (58).3 (74)5% (40)1.8 (121)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -11.08  #113
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 5.98  #85
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 17.06  #118
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6  #125
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #121
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #106

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -11.08   Boise State: 5.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -15.6   Boise State: 4.7




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.2  #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 8.28  #70
Boise State's Defense Rating: 7.58  #66
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7  #55
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #56
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1  #47

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 33
Colorado State 15


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 27
Colorado State 18

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 35
Colorado State 20

Total Points: 55
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 31.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Boise State49Colorado State21Boise State -17.5Boise State46.5Over
202310/14Colorado State31Boise State30Boise State -7.5Colorado State60.0Over
202210/29Boise State49Colorado State10Boise State -25Boise State42.5Over
202110/30Colorado State19Boise State28Boise State -2Boise State51.5Under
202011/12Boise State52Colorado State21Boise State -14.5Boise State62.0Over
201911/29Colorado State24Boise State31Boise State -13.5Colorado State56.5Under
201810/19Boise State56Colorado State28Boise State -24Boise State63.5Over
201711/11Colorado State52Boise State59Boise State -6.5Boise State59.0Over
201610/15Boise State28Colorado State23Boise State -25.5Colorado State59.5Under
201510/10Colorado State10Boise State41Boise State -12Boise State60.0Under
201409/06Boise State37Colorado State24Boise State -8Boise State0
201311/02Colorado State30Boise State42Boise State -10Boise State0
201211/17Boise State42Colorado State14
201110/15Colorado State13Boise State63
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State1396 Overs
Colorado State134 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 67 - 55 - 12 - 4
Road Teams6 - 85 - 74 - 21 - 5

(#113) CSU at (#67) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCSUBSU
Power RatePwr #113 #67
SP+SP+ #125 #55
Perf GradeGrade #135 #83
OffenseOff #124 #80
DefenseDef #136 #73
Spec TeamsST #130 #64
TalentTal #87 #77
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
Colorado State Notes
(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report
Boise State Notes
(12/6) MWC champs after beating UNLV
(12/6) RB duo of Riley & Gaines proved incredible late
(12/6) HC Danielson won MWC in every year he coached
(11/28) Cutforth 340 yds, Run Off ok in W over Utah St
(11/28) Run Def has been bad, Utah St 221 yds, 6.5 ypc
(11/3) QB1 Maddux Madsen carted off in Fresno loss
(11/3) QB2 Max Cutforth awful vs Fresno (< 50%, 2 Int)
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
(7/31) Def tackling was a big issue LY, not a fan of DC
Boise State Injury Report
Colorado State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffBSU Def
Perf GradePerf #124 #73
SuccessSuc #97 #12
ExplosiveExp #98 #128
PPAPPA #94 #46
PowerPwr #85 #66
SP+SP+ #121 #47
Pts POPPO #89 #107
HavocHav #125 #51
Colorado State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #89 #125
Run SuccessRSuc #66 #49
Run ExplRExp #91 #134
PPAExp #77 #115
Run BlockR Blk #78 -
OL YdsOLY #64 #81
Stuff RateStuff #76 #64
TackleTak -  #132
Colorado State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #124 #19
Pass SuccessPSuc #110 #5
Pass ExplPExl #90 #110
PPAExp #96 #6
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #118 #83
F7 HavocF7 #122 #33
DB HavocDB #111 #79
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffCSU Def
Perf GradePerf #80 #136
SuccessSuc #70 #118
ExplosiveExp #44 #78
PPAPPA #38 #113
PowerPwr #70 #118
SP+SP+ #56 #106
Pts POPPO #59 #101
HavocHav #42 #114
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #27 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #74 #108
Run ExplRExp #56 #61
PPAExp #42 #104
Run BlockR Blk #36 -
OL YdsOLY #37 #123
Stuff RateStuff #40 #121
TackleTak -  #66
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #97 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #116
Pass ExplPExl #41 #123
PPAExp #57 #119
Pass Block/RushP Blk #119 #135
F7 HavocF7 #43 #128
DB HavocDB #40 #60
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Boise State -17.5 (46.5)
Boise State won vs Colorado State this year (49-21)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Boise State in 2023 (31-30)
Boise State beat Colorado State in 2022 (49-10)

  
CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Brousseau12820164%1354936.7
Darius Curry7010765%740576.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree10250825.031
Lloyd Avant (Tr)9041754.623
Justin Marshall4926015.373
Javion Kinnard125604.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)31388712.548
Tommy Maher32358011.235
Tay Lanier3531529.039
Armani Winfield22276212.549

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long1485205
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)725111
Jace Bellah581020
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Owen Long1485205
Jeremy Naborne354220
Paul Tangelo (Tr)193241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Jahari Rogers (Tr)314118
Owen Long1485205

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen16928659%22821878.0
Max Cutforth8014057%857326.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1851091105.977
Sire Gaines15379685.246
Malik Sherrod (Tr)8140645.044
Maddux Madsen548041.525
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Latrell Caples46546311.934
Chris Marshall25477219.146
Chase Penry27363113.446
Ben Ford21325515.560

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield989012
Marco Notarainni695372
Boen Phelps613040
Zion Washington593111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braxton Fely227650
Jayden Virgin52104120
Marco Notarainni695372
Malakai Williams (Tr)114360
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Earby552109
Sherrod Smith121005
Jaden Mickey (Tr)337115