Colorado State at Boise State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Colorado State logo Colorado State Rams at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Boise State -17.5 (46.5) (-1000)  Open: -16.5 | 45.5
Boise State 49 - Colorado State: 21  (Mountain West)

 
Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (16 - 20)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
CSU 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Boise State -17.5  (SP+ BSU -19)

Projected Score: CSU: 16 - BSU: 34 (50)
BSU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
CSU Travel: 606 miles
Broncos (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.558.5L 16 - 17UY
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-4.548.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 10/3 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.540.5L 24 - 45ON
Fri 10/10 Colorado State vs Fresno State+5.547.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-2.553.5L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+5.546.5L 0 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+5.560.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico+15.553.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+17.546.5L 21 - 49ON
Fri 11/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+2.547.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 7, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 6, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.551.5W 49 - 37OY
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-16.559.5W 47 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+21.563.5L 7 - 28UY
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-14.558.5W 41 - 25OY
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-12.560.5W 56 - 31OY
Fri 10/24 Boise State at Nevada-20.551.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-17.547.5L 7 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State+1.541.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-17.546.5W 49 - 21OY
Fri 11/28 Boise State at Utah State-1.554.5W 25 - 24UN
Fri 12/5 Boise State vs UNLV-6.060.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 12/13 Boise State vs Washington+9.555.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)18.543% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)30.842% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)29.949% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)24.139% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Offense1318.516.642.2%3.561.2163541621924.955%45%43%41%15%.16
BSU Defense1424.122.338.2%3.331.1 - - - - - 43%57%39%37%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Defense1330.83642.4%41.5 - - - - - 49%51%42%43%17%.16
BSU Offense1429.941.348.3%4.830.6224372342046.555%44%49%48%12%.36

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Colorado State1328:4416.535%64%5.847.31.21.54.21.1227.8
Boise State1429:2521.649%71%4.539.80.61.17.43.6330.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Offense1355% (30)43% (80)33.4161.84.919 (73).03 (115)2.88 (96)55% (133)9% (46)0.92 (87)
BSU Defense1443% (3)39% (33) - - - - .13 (72)2.8 (34)62% (12)15% (3)1.1 (113)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Defense1349% (51)42% (59) - - - - .1 (55)3.01 (70)69% (45)9% (91)1.02 (88)
BSU Offense1455% (31)49% (17)36.2233.56.542 (3).32 (6)3.22 (39)86% (3)7% (10)1.22 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Offense1345% (102)41% (81)16.226.4191.87.311.815 (98)8 (40).31 (43)1.7 (25)32% (75)34% (37).42 (33)7% (98)2 (92)
BSU Defense1457% (133)37% (29) - - - - - - 7 (104).18 (42)1.7 (96)36% (10)30% (62).41 (105)6% (83)2.3 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Defense1351% (85)43% (94) - - - - - - 10 (66).22 (59)1.4 (16)30% (105)30% (64).27 (49)8% (22)1.9 (35)
BSU Offense1444% (103)48% (12)1727.1203.97.51222 (46)4 (1).41 (12)1.5 (119)29% (23)35% (28).37 (55)6% (58)1.9 (111)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -11.19  #105
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 11.48  #77
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 22.67  #125
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6  #124
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #120
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #105

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -11.19   Boise State: 4.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -15.6   Boise State: 3.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 4.335  #66
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.41  #68
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.84  #60
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 34
Colorado State 16


Projected Total Points: 50
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Boise State49Colorado State21Boise State -17.5Boise State46.5Over
202310/14Colorado State31Boise State30Boise State -7.5Colorado State60.0Over
202210/29Boise State49Colorado State10Boise State -25Boise State42.5Over
202110/30Colorado State19Boise State28Boise State -2Boise State51.5Under
202011/12Boise State52Colorado State21Boise State -14.5Boise State62.0Over
201911/29Colorado State24Boise State31Boise State -13.5Colorado State56.5Under
201810/19Boise State56Colorado State28Boise State -24Boise State63.5Over
201711/11Colorado State52Boise State59Boise State -6.5Boise State59.0Over
201610/15Boise State28Colorado State23Boise State -25.5Colorado State59.5Under
201510/10Colorado State10Boise State41Boise State -12Boise State60.0Under
201409/06Boise State37Colorado State24Boise State -8Boise State0
201311/02Colorado State30Boise State42Boise State -10Boise State0
201211/17Boise State42Colorado State14
201110/15Colorado State13Boise State63
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State1396 Overs
Colorado State134 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 67 - 55 - 12 - 4
Road Teams6 - 85 - 74 - 21 - 5

(#105) CSU at (#66) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCSUBSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #105 #66
SP+SP+ #124 #64
Perf GradeGrade #135 #86
OffenseOff #124 #81
DefenseDef #135 #77
Spec TeamsST #132 #54
TalentTal #87 #77
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
Colorado State Notes
(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report
Boise State Notes
(12/13) Could not physically compete with Washington & ND
(12/6) MWC champs after beating UNLV
(12/6) RB duo of Riley & Gaines proved incredible late
(12/6) HC Danielson won MWC in every year he coached
(11/28) Cutforth 340 yds, Run Off ok in W over Utah St
(11/28) Run Def has been bad, Utah St 221 yds, 6.5 ypc
(11/3) QB1 Maddux Madsen carted off in Fresno loss
(11/3) QB2 Max Cutforth awful vs Fresno (< 50%, 2 Int)
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
Boise State Injury Report
Colorado State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffBSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #124 #77
SuccessSuc #76 #27
ExplosiveExp #85 #119
PPAPPA #90 #59
PowerPwr #77 #60
SP+SP+ #120 #60
Pts POPPO #98 #24
HavocHav #59 #7
Colorado State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #97 #123
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #33
Run ExplRExp #87 #113
PPAExp #115 #72
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLY #96 #34
Stuff RateStuff #112 #21
TackleTak -  #134
Colorado State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #121 #19
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #29
Pass ExplPExl #25 #96
PPAExp #43 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #124 #82
F7 HavocF7 #46 #3
DB HavocDB #98 #83
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffCSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #81 #135
SuccessSuc #12 #78
ExplosiveExp #37 #49
PPAPPA #3 #61
PowerPwr #68 #125
SP+SP+ #55 #105
Pts POPPO #4 #88
HavocHav #20 #59
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #23 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #59
Run ExplRExp #5 #88
PPAExp #6 #55
Run BlockR Blk #39 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #70
Stuff RateStuff #58 #93
TackleTak -  #61
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #92 #115
Pass SuccessPSuc #12 #94
Pass ExplPExl #119 #16
PPAExp #12 #59
Pass Block/RushP Blk #116 #135
F7 HavocF7 #10 #91
DB HavocDB #58 #22
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 45° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 13
Boise State -17.5 (46.5)
Boise State won vs Colorado State this year (49-21)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Colorado State last year (49-21)
Colorado State beat Boise State in 2023 (31-30)

  
CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Brousseau12820164%1354936.7
Darius Curry7010765%740576.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree10250825.031
Lloyd Avant (Tr)9041754.623
Justin Marshall4926015.373
Javion Kinnard125604.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)31388712.548
Tommy Maher32358011.235
Tay Lanier3531529.039
Armani Winfield22276212.549

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long1485205
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)725111
Jace Bellah581020
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Owen Long1485205
Jeremy Naborne354220
Paul Tangelo (Tr)193241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Jahari Rogers (Tr)314118
Owen Long1485205

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Malik Sherrod (Tr)8541844.944
Maddux Madsen578141.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Latrell Caples51616312.134
Chris Marshall30574219.146
Chase Penry30394113.146
Matt Lauter3733028.920

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield1059013
Marco Notarainni776382
Zion Washington663112
Boen Phelps664150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Braxton Fely247650
Sterling Lane63310
Malakai Williams (Tr)114370
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Earby602109
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey (Tr)387115