Boise State at Air Force - 2025 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo Boise State Broncos at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Falcon Stadium - Colorado Springs, CO  (Mountain West)

 
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (34 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.4 - 1.6 (#6)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
BSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Boise State -20   (SP+ BSU -16.5)
Projected Score: BSU: 35 - AFA: 15 (51)
BSU Win prob: 93% | Cover: 53%
BSU Travel: 669 miles
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
 
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-9.063.5
Sat 9/6 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-20
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-26
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+19
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-28.5
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-17
Sat 10/25 Boise State at Nevada-24.5
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State-19.5
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-21.5
Sat 11/29 Boise State at Utah State-23

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-0
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+20
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i-1
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+11
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+10.5
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+7
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+10.5
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+11.5
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico-6
Sat 11/29 Air Force at Colorado State+6

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)37.349% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)22.639% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)18.945% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)23.341% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense1437.334.348.3%4.830.6224372342046.555%44%49%48%12%.36
AFA Defense1223.317.741.7%3.971 - - - - - 56%44%41%43%15%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense1422.624.538.2%3.331.1 - - - - - 43%57%39%37%20%.16
AFA Offense1218.918.742.1%4.021.31831422590482%18%45%31%12%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State1429:2521.649%71%4.539.80.61.17.43.6330.1
Air Force1233:5817.942%64%3281.314.31.5028.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense1455% (31)49% (17)36.2233.56.542 (3).32 (6)3.22 (39)86% (3)7% (10)1.22 (5)
AFA Defense1256% (120)41% (47) - - - - .1 (56)3.02 (73)66% (28)10% (63)1.07 (101)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense1443% (3)39% (33) - - - - .13 (72)2.8 (34)62% (12)15% (3)1.1 (113)
AFA Offense1282% (2)45% (60)55.7224.7424 (45).15 (60)3.03 (68)83% (11)9% (55)0.88 (112)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense1444% (103)48% (12)1727.1203.97.51222 (46)4 (1).41 (12)1.5 (119)29% (23)35% (28).37 (55)6% (58)1.9 (111)
AFA Defense1244% (16)43% (89) - - - - - - 4 (125).33 (107)1.6 (63)31% (79)30% (54).3 (63)5% (120)2 (60)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense1457% (133)37% (29) - - - - - - 7 (104).18 (42)1.7 (96)36% (10)30% (62).41 (105)6% (83)2.3 (124)
AFA Offense1218% (133)31% (131)5.211.589.87.817.45 (134)10 (63).09 (124)2.1 (1)27% (14)25% (124).18 (111)3% (2)2.1 (66)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 9.78 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 22.10 #24
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.32 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 712.00 #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #15
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #53

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 9.78   Air Force: -10.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 9.2   Air Force: -7.3




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -10.52 #117
Air Force's Offense Rating: 5.28 #121
Air Force's Defense Rating: 24.02 #116
2025 Talent Rating: 176.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.3 #94
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #116
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #59

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.5

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 35
Air Force 15

Projected Total Points: 51
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/24Boise State27Air Force19Boise StateBoise State -6.5Boise State44.5Over
202210/22Air Force14Boise State19Boise StateAir Force -2.5Boise State46.5Under
202110/16Boise State17Air Force24Air ForceBoise State -3Air Force52.0Under
202010/31Air Force30Boise State49Boise StateBoise State -10.5Boise State0
201909/20Boise State30Air Force19Boise StateBoise State -7.5Boise State53.0Under
201810/27Air Force38Boise State48Boise StateBoise State -10NA58.0Over
201711/18Boise State44Air Force19Boise StateBoise State -17.5Boise State60.5Over
201611/25Air Force27Boise State20Air ForceBoise State -9Air Force63.5Under
201511/20Boise State30Air Force37Air ForceBoise State -14.5Air Force55.0Over
201409/27Air Force28Boise State14Air ForceBoise State -15Air Force0
201309/13Boise State42Air Force20Boise StateBoise State -24Air Force0
201110/22Boise State37Air Force26Boise State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force454 Overs
Boise State854 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 55 - 53 - 42 - 1
Road Teams5 - 75 - 51 - 24 - 3

(#37) Boise State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.78 #37
Offense Rating: 22.10 #24
Defense Rating: 12.32 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #15
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #53
Talent Rating: 712.00 #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.83 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Boise State Notes
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs
(3/22) DE Vergin-Morgan, CB McCoy, S Benefield good
(3/22) OC Potter promoted after Koetter retired
(3/22) HC Danielson lost 1 game outside of bowls
Boise State     Ratings Matchup     Air Force
Power #37
#117
Off #24
#121
Def #56
#116
Talent #68
#134
SP+ #33
#94
SP+ Off #15
#116
SP+ Def #53
#59

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Air Force in 2023 (27-19)
Boise State beat Air Force in 2022 (19-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BSU | AFA
Depth Chart: BSU | AFA
Rosters: BSU | AFA
(#117) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -10.52 #117
Offense Rating: 5.28 #121
Defense Rating: 24.02 #116
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.3 #94
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #116
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #59
Talent Rating: 176.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Air Force Notes
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
(5/6) Started 0-7, finished 4-0 in 2024
(5/5) RB Carson/Allen back, FB Frew back. Avg
(5/5) WR top 2 back in Harris/Smith. Decent
(5/5) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Bad LY, jump?
(5/5) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. DL small
(5/5) Expect Calhoun to bounce back after down '24


  
Boise State's OC Nate Potter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen24739662%30182367.6
Max Cutforth22100%13006.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Maddux Madsen5722153.949
Malik Sherrod (Tr)6019643.348
Sire Gaines2015617.838
Dylan Riley2213526.164
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matt Lauter48629713.153
Latrell Caples38473512.436
Austin Bolt16196412.344
Chase Penry14164011.742

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield825013
Zion Washington674006
A'Marion McCoy6020112
Marco Notarainni608433
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin40161050
Braxton Fely249610
Marco Notarainni608433
Max Stege145300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy6020112
Jeremiah Earby341006
Zion Washington674006

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Johnson61443%126139.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Christopher Frew4526015.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843
James Roberson596119.245

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher375221
Daniel Grobe305113
Luke Fisher221000
Aidan Swartz223111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peyton Zdroik187330
Blake Fletcher375221
Aidan Swartz223111
Daniel Grobe305113
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Grobe305113
Kyle Chen212002
Blake Fletcher375221