App State at Boise State Game Matchup

App State Mountaineers at Boise State Broncos

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

Mountaineers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dowell Loggains (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 33 (24 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

APP coming off BYE
Our Line: Boise State -26.5 (SP+ BSU -18)
Projected Score: APP: 18 - BSU: 44 (60)
BSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
APP Travel: 1884 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.4 - 1.6 (#6)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
BSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	App State vs Charlotte	-8.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	App State vs Lindenwood	-9
Sat 9/13	App State at Southern Miss	+8
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	App State at Boise State	+26.5
Sat 10/4	App State vs Oregon State	+8.5
Sat 10/11	App State at Georgia State	+0
Sat 10/18	App State vs Coastal Carolina	+0.5
Sat 10/25	App State at Old Dominion	+6.5
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	App State vs Georgia Southern	+8
Sat 11/15	App State at James Madison	+18.5
Sat 11/22	App State vs Marshall	-5.5
Sat 11/29	App State vs Arkansas State	+0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for App State's Schedule

Boise State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Boise State at South Florida	-9.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	Boise State vs Eastern Washington	-33
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Boise State at Air Force	-19
Sat 9/27	Boise State vs App State	-26.5
Sat 10/4	Boise State at Notre Dame	+19
Sat 10/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-28.5
Sat 10/18	Boise State vs UNLV	-17
Sat 10/25	Boise State at Nevada	-24.5
Sat 11/1	Boise State vs Fresno State	-18.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Boise State at San Diego State	-19.5
Sat 11/22	Boise State vs Colorado State	-21.5
Sat 11/29	Boise State at Utah State	-23

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)	26.6	45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)	32.9	51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)	37.3	49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)	22.6	39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	11	26.6	24.3	43.6%	3.89	2	24	430	157	273	4.5	48%	51%	45%	43%	16%	.21
BSU Defense	14	22.6	19.7	38.2%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	39%	37%	20%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	11	32.9	39.7	49%	4.78	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	51%	47%	12%	.3
BSU Offense	14	37.3	43.1	48.3%	4.83	0.6	22	437	234	204	6.5	55%	44%	49%	48%	12%	.36

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	11	30:06	23.9	43%	59%	6	57	2	1.2	4.3	2.1	1	27.6
Boise State	14	29:25	21.6	49%	71%	4.5	39.8	0.6	1.1	7.4	3.6	3	30.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	11	48% (81)	45% (58)	34.9	157.4	4.5	13 (105)	.1 (89)	3.01 (75)	80% (21)	7% (15)	0.89 (104)
BSU Defense	14	43% (3)	39% (33)	-	-	-	-	.13 (72)	2.8 (34)	62% (12)	15% (3)	1.1 (113)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	11	56% (124)	51% (130)	-	-	-	-	.26 (128)	3.41 (125)	77% (94)	9% (89)	1.04 (94)
BSU Offense	14	55% (31)	49% (17)	36.2	233.5	6.5	42 (3)	.32 (6)	3.22 (39)	86% (3)	7% (10)	1.22 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	11	51% (53)	43% (62)	19.8	35.6	272.9	7.7	13.8	23 (41)	16 (124)	.32 (41)	1.8 (13)	35% (122)	37% (15)	.46 (19)	9% (130)	2.2 (18)
BSU Defense	14	57% (133)	37% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.18 (42)	1.7 (96)	36% (10)	30% (62)	.41 (105)	6% (83)	2.3 (124)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	11	44% (10)	47% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.37 (119)	1.5 (46)	26% (133)	35% (115)	.38 (100)	2% (134)	2 (62)
BSU Offense	14	44% (103)	48% (12)	17	27.1	203.9	7.5	12	22 (46)	4 (1)	.41 (12)	1.5 (119)	29% (23)	35% (28)	.37 (55)	6% (58)	1.9 (111)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -19.76 #123
App State's Offense Rating: 6.35 #114
App State's Defense Rating: 26.11 #124
2025 Talent Rating: 548.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
App State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
App State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #94
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #103

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 526.43
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: -19.76 Boise State: 11.99

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: -8.8 Boise State: 9.2

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 11.99 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 22.10 #24
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.32 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 712.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #15
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #53

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 506.67
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

App State Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.3
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.7

App State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 44
App State 18

Projected Total Points: 60

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boise State	0	0	0 Overs
App State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#123) App State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -19.76 #123
Offense Rating: 6.35 #114
Defense Rating: 26.11 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #94
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #103
Talent Rating: 548.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.78 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

App State Notes
(3/27) QB portals Swann (LSU) or Kohl (ISU)?
(3/23) RB rebuild. Dubinion (Ark), Keith (Tenn) added
(3/23) WR rebuild, Stroman exp'd, 3 portal adds
(3/23) OL 3/5 back, bad LY. 5 portal adds (3 FBS)
(3/23) Def bad LY, return some. DL weak. CB's good?
(3/23) Loggains was S Car OC, in for fired S. Clark
(3/23) Loggains will OC, DC Smith co-DC @ Mizzu

App State Ratings Matchup Boise State

Power #123

#37

Off #114

#24

Def #124

#56

Talent #98

#70

SP+ #98

#33

SP+ Off #94

#15

SP+ Def #103

#53

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: APP | BSU
Depth Chart: APP | BSU
Rosters: APP | BSU

(#37) Boise State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.99 #37
Offense Rating: 22.10 #24
Defense Rating: 12.32 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #15
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #53
Talent Rating: 712.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.83 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Boise State Notes
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs
(3/22) DE Vergin-Morgan, CB McCoy, S Benefield good
(3/22) OC Potter promoted after Koetter retired
(3/22) HC Danielson lost 1 game outside of bowls

App State's OC Vacant

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann (Tr)	2	4	50%	10	0	0	2.5
Billy Wiles	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)	56	335	2	6.0	23
Khalifa Keith (Tr)	21	100	1	4.8	23
Jaylon Calhoun	1	2	0	2.0	2

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dalton Stroman	20	307	5	15.4	47
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)	16	122	0	7.6	23
Kanen Hamlett	4	35	2	8.8	19
Izayah Cummings (Tr)	3	33	0	11.0	19

View App State's Full Roster

App State's DC D. J. Smith

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyle Arnholt	54	2	0	2	0
DJ Burks	52	3	0	0	0
Thomas Davis	35	6	4	1	0
Jordan Favors	33	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Thomas Davis	35	6	4	1	0
Shawn Collins	16	3	2	4	1
Rondarius Porter (Tr)	7	1	1	0	0
Kevin Abrams-Verwayne	9	1	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Favors	33	1	0	4
Cristian Conyer (Tr)	9	0	0	3
Ethan Johnson	22	0	1	2

Boise State's OC Nate Potter

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	247	396	62%	3018	23	6	7.6
Max Cutforth	2	2	100%	13	0	0	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Maddux Madsen	57	221	5	3.9	49
Malik Sherrod (Tr)	60	196	4	3.3	48
Sire Gaines	20	156	1	7.8	38
Dylan Riley	22	135	2	6.1	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matt Lauter	48	629	7	13.1	53
Latrell Caples	38	473	5	12.4	36
Austin Bolt	16	196	4	12.3	44
Chase Penry	14	164	0	11.7	42

View Boise State's Full Roster

Boise State's DC Erik Chinander

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	82	5	0	1	3
Zion Washington	67	4	0	0	6
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	0	1	12
Marco Notarainni	60	8	4	3	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Virgin	40	16	10	5	0
Braxton Fely	24	9	6	1	0
Marco Notarainni	60	8	4	3	3
Max Stege	14	5	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	1	12
Jeremiah Earby	34	1	0	6
Zion Washington	67	4	0	6