App State at Boise State - 2025 Matchup Preview
App State logo App State Mountaineers at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

 
Mountaineers (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Dowell Loggains (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 21 (22 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
APP coming off BYE
Our Line: Boise State -17   (SP+ BSU -14)

Projected Score: APP: 20 - BSU: 37 (57)
BSU Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
APP Travel: 1884 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Broncos (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (51 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 3.1 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
App State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 App State vs Charlotte-8.553.5W 34 - 11UY
Sat 9/6 App State vs Lindenwood-31.556.0W 20 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 App State at Southern Miss-3.055.5L 22 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 App State at Boise State+17
Sat 10/4 App State vs Oregon State+4.5
Sat 10/11 App State at Georgia State-8
Sat 10/18 App State vs Coastal Carolina-6.5
Sat 10/25 App State at Old Dominion+11.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 App State vs Georgia Southern-10.5
Sat 11/15 App State at James Madison+16
Sat 11/22 App State vs Marshall-6
Sat 11/29 App State vs Arkansas State-8

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for App State's Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-17
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+16.5
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-22
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-8.5
Sat 10/25 Boise State at Nevada-19
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State-7.5
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-14.5
Sat 11/29 Boise State at Utah State-14.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
APP#105 (.1)48% (38)25.358% (11)3.44 (29)16241% (85)3573.21 (109)#78 (.15)39% (69)20.741% (81)38% (60)4.23 (96)812.71.7
BSU#75 (.19)47% (42)2954% (25)2.97 (71)22541% (89)2832.81 (120)#65 (.12)29% (9)2431% (16)27% (12)4.56 (107)561.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
APP#57 (.21)44% (60)45% (58)3.01 (75)15743% (62)2733.89 (71)#123 (.3)49% (127)51% (130)47% (119)4.78 (132)5721.2
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
APP Offense325.32248.4%3.212.7265191623574.544%56%58%41%15%.1
BSU Defense2241429.2%4.561 - - - - - 47%53%31%27%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
APP Defense320.73839.3%4.231.7 - - - - - 44%56%41%38%27%.15
BSU Offense2295147.1%2.811.5245082252835.848%52%54%41%16%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
App State331:4826.341%50%8.3812.71.79.33028
Boise State232:2223.543%29%7561.5172.5033
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
APP Offense344% (105)58% (11)36.31624.53 (95).11 (83)3.44 (29)74% (62)6% (25)0.54 (134)
BSU Defense247% (47)31% (16) - - - - .15 (102)2.85 (77)57% (28)13% (33)1.65 (135)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
APP Defense344% (26)41% (81) - - - - .02 (53)2.35 (32)78% (100)17% (5)0.84 (45)
BSU Offense248% (84)54% (25)38.52255.85 (62).16 (60)2.97 (71)80% (36)10% (86)0.84 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
APP Offense356% (29)41% (85)27.745.3357.37.912.96 (34)4 (121).1 (117)1.5 (76)31% (77)36% (38).34 (67)9% (131)1.8 (98)
BSU Defense253% (92)27% (12) - - - - - - 1 (87).1 (37)2 (129)50% (2)21% (30).2 (56)4% (104)2.8 (131)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
APP Defense356% (110)38% (60) - - - - - - 4 (12).28 (95)1.7 (107)37% (24)30% (72).37 (95)10% (8)2.2 (100)
BSU Offense252% (51)41% (89)2238.5282.57.312.83 (90)0 (1).22 (81)1.4 (98)36% (115)35% (45).04 (120)6% (86)1 (136)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -10.05 #106
App State's Offense Rating: 6.10 #98
App State's Defense Rating: 16.15 #105
2025 Talent Rating: 650.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
App State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
App State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.6 #100
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #100
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #100

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: -10.05   Boise State: 7.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: -9.6   Boise State: 3.9




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 7.1 #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Boise State's Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


App State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

App State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 37
App State 20


Total Points: 57

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 14

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State000 Overs
App State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#106) App State Info
Power Rating: -10.05 #106
Offense Rating: 6.10 #98
Defense Rating: 16.15 #105
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.6 #100
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #100
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #100
Talent Rating: 650.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Good Offense Success Rate of 48%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.21 PPO
Great Run Success 58%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 39%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.23 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 41%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

App State has lost 1 straight
App State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

App State Notes
(8/1) Poss worst DL in SBC, 7 portal adds are meh
(8/1) Entire new team, portals meh, no bowl TY
(8/1) Def bottomed out LY. DL weak. LB avg, CB OK
(8/1) Don't love Loggains hire, SC was done w/ him
(7/13) WR rebuild, Stroman exp'd, 4 portal adds
(6/3) Watch WR J Barnes (A Peay) 1k yds, slot guy
(6/3) QB JJ Kohl (ISU) had best spring, Swann (LSU)?
(6/3) OL 3/5 back, bad LY. 8 portals, weak in spring
(3/23) RB rebuild. Dubinion (Ark), Keith (Tenn) added
(3/23) Loggains will OC, DC Smith co-DC @ Mizzu

App State Highlights
App State has a top Offensive Line (#29)
App State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#15)

App State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

App State Front 7 is disruptive (#5)
App State Secondary is very good (#8)
App State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

App State Deficiencies
App State has a bad TO Margin (#131)
App State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
App State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#121)
App State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
App State offense is not Explosive (#127)
App State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#109)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBSUAPP
OverallOver#53#56
OffenseOff#40#62
DefenseDef#62#41
Special TeamsST#85#93
PassingPass#64#45
RushingRush#21#24
Run BlockRBLK#17#70
Pass BlockPBLK#72#95
Route RunningWR Rt#72#62
TacklingTkl#110#78
Run DefenseR Def#66#18
Pass Rush DefPRush#64#26
Coverage DefCov#51#57

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: APP | BSU
Depth Chart: APP | BSU
Rosters: APP | BSU
(#67) Boise State Info
Power Rating: 7.1 #67
Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.81 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.56 PPO
Great Run Def Success 31%
Great Pass Def Success 27%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Boise State has lost 1 straight
Boise State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Boise State Notes
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
(7/31) Def tackling was a big issue LY, not a fan of DC
(6/8) RB Sherrod had 960 yds rush, 44/260 rec in '23
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs

Boise State Highlights
Boise State is Undefeated at Home
Boise State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Boise State has a really good defense (#9)
Boise State has a good run defense (#16)
Boise State has a good pass defense (#12)

Boise State Deficiencies
Boise State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Boise State offense is not Explosive (#112)
Boise State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#126)
Boise State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#120)
Boise State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#136)
Boise State has a bad red zone defense (#107)


  
App State's OC Vacant
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann (Tr)6510363%878548.5
Noah Gillon112446%109004.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)7140025.626
Jaquari Lewis114814.410
AJ Swann (Tr)94605.119
Khamani Alexander41403.56
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Barnes (Tr)24337314.059
Dalton Stroman15294119.672
Izayah Cummings (Tr)16172010.830
William Fowles574014.819

View App State's Full Roster
App State's DC D. J. Smith
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colton Phares214001
Dylan Hasz (Tr)141001
Thomas Davis134210
Ja'Den Mcburrows (Tr)112011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thomas Davis134210
Caleb Sandstrom (Tr)52210
Aiden Benton62210
Kevin Abrams-Verwayne102222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Johnson71004
Zyeir Gamble81002
Kevin Abrams-Verwayne102222

Boise State's OC Nate Potter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen417257%532307.4
Max Cutforth3560%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley13143111.077
Sire Gaines2314216.246
Malik Sherrod (Tr)186913.820
Maddux Madsen156614.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Marshall6151125.246
Ben Ford7126218.060
Matt Lauter880010.020
Latrell Caples569013.816

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield153000
Marco Notarainni131040
Jeremiah Earby111100
Zion Washington110001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braxton Fely82200
Lopez Sanusi21100
Dion Washington (Tr)31100
Max Stege31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy10002
Zion Washington110001
Travis Anderson10001