App State at Boise State - 2025 Matchup Preview
App State logo App State Mountaineers at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Boise State -16.5 (59.5) (-900)  Open: -17.5
Boise State 47 - App State: 14

 
Mountaineers (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dowell Loggains (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (22 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
APP coming off BYE
Our Line: Boise State -16  (SP+ BSU -15)

Projected Score: APP: 21 - BSU: 37 (59)
BSU Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
APP Travel: 1884 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Broncos (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
App State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 App State vs Charlotte-8.553.5W 34 - 11UY
Sat 9/6 App State vs Lindenwood-31.556.0W 20 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 App State at Southern Miss-3.055.5L 22 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 App State at Boise State+16.559.5L 14 - 47ON
Sat 10/4 App State vs Oregon State-1.553.5W 27 - 23UY
Sat 10/11 App State at Georgia State-3.055.5W 41 - 20OY
Sat 10/18 App State vs Coastal Carolina-10.548.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 10/25 App State at Old Dominion+12.560.5L 21 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 App State vs Georgia Southern-4.562.5L 23 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 App State at James Madison+21.053.5L 10 - 58ON
Sat 11/22 App State vs Marshall+3.557.5W 26 - 24UY
Sat 11/29 App State vs Arkansas State-1.054.5L 29 - 30ON
Mon 12/29 App State vs Georgia Southern+10.058.5L 10 - 29UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for App State's Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.551.5W 49 - 37OY
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-16.559.5W 47 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+21.563.5L 7 - 28UY
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-14.558.5W 41 - 25OY
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-12.560.5W 56 - 31OY
Fri 10/24 Boise State at Nevada-20.551.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-17.547.5L 7 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State+1.541.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-17.546.5W 49 - 21OY
Fri 11/28 Boise State at Utah State-1.554.5W 25 - 24UN
Fri 12/5 Boise State vs UNLV-6.060.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 12/13 Boise State vs Washington+9.555.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
APP#93 (.13)41% (85)24.243% (73)2.99 (58)11440% (85)2423.69 (71)#77 (.18)45% (109)29.845% (97)45% (114)4.18 (116)58.91.41.4
BSU#52 (.2)42% (84)29.942% (84)3.1 (39)17940% (87)2453.7 (67)#52 (.12)36% (13)24.141% (53)33% (7)4.14 (111)59.41.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
APP#57 (.21)44% (60)45% (58)3.01 (75)15743% (62)2733.89 (71)#123 (.3)49% (127)51% (130)47% (119)4.78 (132)5721.2
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
APP Offense1324.221.641.5%3.691.4193561142423.942%56%43%40%17%.13
BSU Defense1424.122.336.4%4.141.6 - - - - - 52%46%41%33%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
APP Defense1329.837.444.7%4.181.4 - - - - - 45%53%45%45%17%.18
BSU Offense1429.941.341.5%3.71.5224241792454.651%48%42%40%14%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
App State1326:0119.533%63%6.358.91.41.45.42.2128
Boise State1432:5122.146%51%6.959.41.51.662330.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
APP Offense1342% (121)43% (73)291143.911 (99).07 (92)2.99 (58)67% (96)8% (29)0.77 (131)
BSU Defense1452% (95)41% (53) - - - - .19 (119)2.98 (90)67% (39)11% (26)1.22 (134)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
APP Defense1345% (16)45% (97) - - - - .05 (44)2.8 (55)70% (57)10% (57)0.82 (10)
BSU Offense1451% (56)42% (84)39.3179.44.629 (30).15 (49)3.1 (39)79% (23)8% (34)1 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
APP Offense1356% (15)40% (85)21.836.8241.86.611.123 (33)11 (108).23 (79)1.6 (60)33% (99)33% (35).33 (59)9% (133)1.9 (107)
BSU Defense1446% (42)33% (7) - - - - - - 14 (22).08 (7)1.7 (117)37% (6)28% (46).21 (32)6% (81)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
APP Defense1353% (122)45% (114) - - - - - - 12 (22).31 (96)1.5 (52)32% (55)32% (93).36 (103)7% (24)2.2 (116)
BSU Offense1448% (79)40% (87)19.633.7244.97.312.523 (22)14 (88).25 (65)1.6 (46)33% (102)31% (62).26 (84)6% (67)1.8 (126)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -11.03  #112
App State's Offense Rating: 3.41  #105
App State's Defense Rating: 14.44  #108
2025 Talent Rating: 650.00  #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
App State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
App State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.6  #108
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #92
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: -11.03   Boise State: 5.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: -10.6   Boise State: 4.7




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.2  #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 8.28  #70
Boise State's Defense Rating: 7.58  #66
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7  #55
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #56
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1  #47

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

App State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 37
App State 21


Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 35
App State 22

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 35
App State 23

Total Points: 58
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Boise State47App State14Boise State -16.5Boise State59.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State111 Overs
App State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#112) APP at (#67) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAPPBSU
Power RatePwr #112 #67
SP+SP+ #108 #55
Perf GradeGrade #90 #83
OffenseOff #98 #80
DefenseDef #53 #73
Spec TeamsST #36 #64
TalentTal #84 #77
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
App State Notes
(10/19) Horrific home loss to C Car, Run Def mauled 240+
(10/19) So QB JJ Kohl taken over for Swann (was injured)
(9/22) App has lost 5 straight road games into Boise St
(8/30) Swann great vs Char, Run game decent, Def imp
(8/1) Poss worst DL in SBC, 7 portal adds are meh
(8/1) Entire new team, portals meh, no bowl TY
(8/1) Def bottomed out LY. DL weak. LB avg, CB OK
(8/1) Don't love Loggains hire, SC was done w/ him
(7/13) WR rebuild, Stroman exp'd, 4 portal adds
(6/3) Watch WR J Barnes (A Peay) 1k yds, slot guy
(6/3) QB JJ Kohl (ISU) had best spring, Swann (LSU)?
(6/3) OL 3/5 back, bad LY. 8 portals, weak in spring
App State Injury Report
Boise State Notes
(12/13) Could not physically compete with Washington & ND
(12/6) MWC champs after beating UNLV
(12/6) RB duo of Riley & Gaines proved incredible late
(12/6) HC Danielson won MWC in every year he coached
(11/28) Cutforth 340 yds, Run Off ok in W over Utah St
(11/28) Run Def has been bad, Utah St 221 yds, 6.5 ypc
(11/3) QB1 Maddux Madsen carted off in Fresno loss
(11/3) QB2 Max Cutforth awful vs Fresno (< 50%, 2 Int)
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
Boise State Injury Report
App State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffBSU Def
Perf GradePerf #98 #73
SuccessSuc #85 #13
ExplosiveExp #97 #128
PPAPPA #93 #52
PowerPwr #105 #66
SP+SP+ #92 #47
Pts POPPO #71 #111
HavocHav #99 #50
App State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #87 #125
Run SuccessRSuc #73 #53
Run ExplRExp #131 #134
PPAExp #92 #119
Run BlockR Blk #99 -
OL YdsOLY #58 #90
Stuff RateStuff #27 #66
TackleTak -  #132
App State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #74 #19
Pass SuccessPSuc #85 #7
Pass ExplPExl #60 #117
PPAExp #79 #7
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #115 #83
F7 HavocF7 #29 #26
DB HavocDB #133 #81
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffAPP Def
Perf GradePerf #80 #53
SuccessSuc #84 #109
ExplosiveExp #49 #44
PPAPPA #52 #77
PowerPwr #70 #108
SP+SP+ #56 #119
Pts POPPO #67 #116
HavocHav #48 #42
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffAPP Def
Run GameRun #27 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #97
Run ExplRExp #56 #10
PPAExp #49 #44
Run BlockR Blk #36 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #55
Stuff RateStuff #34 #78
TackleTak -  #61
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffAPP Def
Pass GamePass #97 #105
Pass SuccessPSuc #87 #114
Pass ExplPExl #46 #52
PPAExp #65 #96
Pass Block/RushP Blk #119 #9
F7 HavocF7 #34 #57
DB HavocDB #67 #24
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 83° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Boise State -16.5 (59.5)
Boise State won vs App State this year (47-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
APP's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann (Tr)13022259%14941086.7
J.J. Kohl (Tr)13321662%14651226.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)17486845.039
Jaquari Lewis12456364.527
J.J. Kohl (Tr)305011.732
Khamani Alexander72804.06
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Barnes (Tr)55608711.159
Dalton Stroman32569417.872
Davion Dozier (Tr)20448522.468
Izayah Cummings (Tr)37374110.130

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC D. J. Smith (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colton Phares899223
Zyeir Gamble663004
DJ Burks652005
Elijah Mc-Cantos521002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Abrams-Verwayne397552
Aiden Benton345460
Caleb Sandstrom (Tr)194432
Thomas Davis256320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Johnson4010011
DJ Burks652005
Emory Floyd Jr. (Tr)471004

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1961125105.777
Sire Gaines16181485.146
Malik Sherrod (Tr)8441645.044
Maddux Madsen578141.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Latrell Caples51616312.134
Chris Marshall30574219.146
Chase Penry30394113.146
Matt Lauter3733028.920

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield1059013
Marco Notarainni787482
Boen Phelps664150
Zion Washington653112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braxton Fely247650
Jayden Virgin55125120
Marco Notarainni787482
Sterling Lane63310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Earby602109
Sherrod Smith131006
Jaden Mickey (Tr)387115