South Alabama at North Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Alabama logo South Alabama Jaguars at North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
North Texas -13.5 (63.5) (-500)  Open: -10.5
North Texas 36 - South Alabama: 22

 
Jaguars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
UNT is playing their 5th straight game
USA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: North Texas -24  (SP+ UNT -29)

Projected Score: USA: 20 - UNT: 44 (63)
UNT Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
USA Travel: 562 miles
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
 
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 South Alabama vs Morgan State-28.551.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 9/6 South Alabama vs Tulane+13.551.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 9/13 South Alabama at Auburn+26.556.5L 15 - 31UY
Sat 9/20 South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina-14.551.5L 20 - 38ON
Sat 9/27 South Alabama at North Texas+13.563.5L 22 - 36UN
Sat 10/4 South Alabama at Troy-2.546.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 South Alabama vs Arkansas State-8.557.5L 14 - 15UN
Thu 10/23 South Alabama at Georgia State-5.554.5W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 South Alabama vs Louisiana-3.552.5L 22 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Alabama at UL Monroe-4.049.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 South Alabama vs Southern Miss+2.553.0W 42 - 35OY
Sat 11/29 South Alabama at Texas State+9.562.5L 26 - 49ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#80 (.16)42% (83)26.543% (77)3.03 (55)20140% (94)1814.01 (40)#117 (.24)43% (88)30.447% (117)40% (47)4.35 (127)54.911.3
UNT#3 (.36)51% (4)45.153% (3)3.58 (2)16851% (8)2994.98 (3)#78 (.18)44% (93)26.548% (125)37% (29)3.93 (97)39.11.21.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#5 (.34)50% (9)53% (4)3.57 (6)19947% (18)2434.66 (13)#58 (.15)41% (58)39% (28)43% (96)3.66 (56)70.80.91.5
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Offense1226.525.241.5%4.011213822011814.660%38%43%40%13%.16
UNT Defense1426.52243.6%3.931.8 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Defense1230.43243.2%4.351.3 - - - - - 54%44%47%40%15%.24
UNT Offense1445.145.751.2%4.981.2244671682995.147%51%53%51%12%.36

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Alabama1231:0820.643%54%6.554.911.34.71028.6
North Texas1426:0323.546%69%4.939.11.21.851.6033.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Offense1260% (10)43% (77)44.3201.24.630 (60).14 (59)3.03 (55)76% (40)9% (54)1.02 (50)
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (110)3.23 (120)78% (114)9% (78)0.98 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Defense1254% (119)47% (117) - - - - .18 (111)3.15 (109)91% (136)8% (108)0.92 (51)
UNT Offense1447% (87)53% (3)33.1167.95.145 (1).33 (4)3.58 (2)73% (67)7% (12)1.11 (13)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Offense1238% (125)40% (94)17.725.8181.1710.313 (86)6 (34).23 (80)1.5 (81)31% (56)27% (102).28 (73)4% (19)2.1 (32)
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (29) - - - - - - 13 (31).21 (56)1.7 (113)29% (116)29% (62).27 (62)4% (127)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Defense1244% (19)40% (47) - - - - - - 6 (100).34 (113)1.8 (129)33% (40)29% (63).37 (105)6% (59)2.3 (129)
UNT Offense1451% (47)51% (8)21.330.6299.49.814.132 (8)7 (20).43 (17)1.6 (63)26% (12)39% (8).44 (21)5% (25)2 (73)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -11.94  #119
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 5.24  #89
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 17.18  #119
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00  #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9  #113
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #126

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -11.94   North Texas: 11.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -11.9   North Texas: 17.5




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 11.85  #65
North Texas's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
North Texas's Defense Rating: 15.78  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #67

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 44
South Alabama 20


Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 42
South Alabama 21

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 38
South Alabama 25

Total Points: 63
North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27North Texas36South Alabama22North Texas -13.5North Texas63.5Under
202408/31South Alabama38North Texas52South Alabama -6.0North Texas61.5Over
201211/10North Texas24South Alabama14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas321 Overs
South Alabama001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#119) USA at (#65) UNT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSAUNT
Power RatePwr #119 #65
SP+SP+ #113 #15
Perf GradeGrade #101 #8
OffenseOff #88 #3
DefenseDef #96 #27
Spec TeamsST #61 #54
TalentTal #103 #91
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
South Alabama Notes
(10/15) HC Applewhite & staff on thin ice after 0-6 streak
(10/15) Strange trend, 7 pts 1Q, 0 2Q in past 3 games
(9/21) Off bad, Def worse. Flags, TO's, not buttoned up
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama Injury Report
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
South Alabama on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
USA OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #88 #27
SuccessSuc #83 #93
ExplosiveExp #94 #43
PPAPPA #80 #78
PowerPwr #89 #115
SP+SP+ #80 #67
Pts POPPO #40 #97
HavocHav #30 #107
South Alabama Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
USA OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #10 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #77 #125
Run ExplRExp #50 #82
PPAExp #59 #110
Run BlockR Blk #133 -
OL YdsOLY #55 #120
Stuff RateStuff #26 #127
TackleTak -  #8
South Alabama Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
USA OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #107 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #94 #29
Pass ExplPExl #81 #113
PPAExp #80 #56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #51 #78
F7 HavocF7 #54 #78
DB HavocDB #19 #127
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffUSA Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #96
SuccessSuc #4 #88
ExplosiveExp #30 #72
PPAPPA #3 #117
PowerPwr #28 #119
SP+SP+ #1 #126
Pts POPPO #3 #127
HavocHav #9 #94
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffUSA Def
Run GameRun #5 #112
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #117
Run ExplRExp #13 #51
PPAExp #4 #111
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #109
Stuff RateStuff #9 #102
TackleTak -  #129
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffUSA Def
Pass GamePass #2 #31
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #47
Pass ExplPExl #63 #129
PPAExp #17 #113
Pass Block/RushP Blk #19 #130
F7 HavocF7 #12 #108
DB HavocDB #25 #59
Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

USA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 81° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 5
North Texas -13.5 (63.5)
North Texas won vs South Alabama this year (36-22)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat South Alabama last year (52-38)

  
USA's OC Paul Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bishop Davenport20029468%20721267.0
Jared Hollins121675%101106.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kentrel Bullock2181085145.064
Keenan Phillips12662234.954
Bishop Davenport11632692.856
PJ Martin6032625.438
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin67775411.665
Jeremy Scott24417417.474
Anthony Eager4033918.548
Miller McCrumby (Tr)1512808.532

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blayne Myrick846033
Christopher Wallace Jr.734000
Darius McKenzie714111
Tirrell Johnson Jr.546131
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Thomas163220
Nathan Jennings132200
E'Mauri Smiley151110
Emmanuel Waller (Tr)143120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Ty Goodwill355007
Jayvon Henderson (Tr)272005

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2301424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1129260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104