South Alabama at North Texas Game Matchup
South Alabama logo South Alabama Jaguars at North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Apogee Stadium - Denton, TX

 
Jaguars (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (26 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 4.4 (#40)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
UNT is playing their 5th straight game
USA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: South Alabama -2.5   (SP+ USA -4)
Projected Score: USA: 31 - UNT: 28 (63)
USA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
USA Travel: 562 miles
Mean Green (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 34 - 34 (33 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)
 
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 South Alabama vs Morgan State-20.5
Sat 9/6 South Alabama vs Tulane+4
Sat 9/13 South Alabama at Auburn+22.5
Sat 9/20 South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina-11
Sat 9/27 South Alabama at North Texas-2.5
Sat 10/4 South Alabama at Troy+1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 South Alabama vs Arkansas State-11
Thu 10/23 South Alabama at Georgia State-11.5
Sat 11/1 South Alabama vs Louisiana-6.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Alabama at UL Monroe-9.5
Sat 11/22 South Alabama vs Southern Miss-8.5
Sat 11/29 South Alabama at Texas State+0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 North Texas vs Lamar-15.5
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-7
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-4.5
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army+7
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama+2.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida+6
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA+6
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-10
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-4
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-6.5
Sat 11/29 North Texas vs Temple-13

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#5 (.34)50% (9)34.453% (4)3.57 (6)19947% (18)2434.66 (13)#58 (.15)41% (58)25.239% (28)43% (96)3.66 (56)70.80.91.5
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)33.540% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)34.247% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Offense1334.425.549.8%4.660.9224421992435.851%49%53%47%14%.34
UNT Defense1334.22644.3%4.031.1 - - - - - 54%46%47%42%11%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Defense1325.222.840.9%3.661.5 - - - - - 48%52%39%43%16%.15
UNT Offense1333.533.242.5%3.911.5224511532985.638%62%40%44%15%.23

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Alabama1329:2021.539%68%8.270.80.91.55.61.6429.3
North Texas1325:0522.136%48%6.352.51.51.14.51.7128.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Offense1351% (67)53% (4)34.1199.25.832 (14).33 (3)3.57 (6)82% (12)10% (79)1.06 (40)
UNT Defense1354% (105)47% (106) - - - - .19 (102)3.29 (111)75% (74)7% (128)0.96 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Defense1348% (38)39% (28) - - - - .09 (53)2.78 (32)71% (51)10% (78)1.05 (98)
UNT Offense1338% (129)40% (109)27.6153.25.622 (55).17 (44)2.75 (111)58% (128)9% (51)1.25 (4)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Offense1349% (68)47% (18)19.530243.28.112.521 (51)6 (10).36 (27)1.5 (101)29% (27)33% (49).48 (15)4% (14)2.2 (14)
UNT Defense1346% (26)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (66).29 (98)1.7 (94)31% (90)30% (72).31 (69)4% (128)2.1 (93)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Defense1352% (98)43% (96) - - - - - - 16 (10).24 (73)1.5 (32)32% (69)30% (55).15 (8)6% (59)1.7 (5)
UNT Offense1362% (6)44% (39)25.239.82987.511.931 (6)12 (85).26 (64)1.6 (60)33% (88)34% (35).35 (64)6% (71)2 (93)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -2.23 #70
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 16.39 #50
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 18.62 #94
2025 Talent Rating: 550.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 4.4
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #76
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #74
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 527
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -2.23   North Texas: -5.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.4   North Texas: -7.2




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -5.4 #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 9.28 #98
North Texas's Defense Rating: 17.88 #87
2025 Talent Rating: 592.00 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #37
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #127

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 532.14
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
South Alabama 31
North Texas 28

Projected Total Points: 63
North Texas Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.2
Defense: 34.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/31South Alabama38North Texas52North TexasSouth Alabama -6.0North Texas61.5Over
201211/10North Texas24South Alabama14North Texas
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas211 Overs
South Alabama000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#70) South Alabama Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.23 #70
Offense Rating: 16.39 #50
Defense Rating: 18.62 #94
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #76
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #74
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81
Talent Rating: 550.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 7.6 - 4.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Great Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


South Alabama Notes
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/17) Davenport likely QB1, #2 LY, started Ohio game
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 4 portals. Looks good
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama     Ratings Matchup     North Texas
Power #70
#90
Off #50
#98
Def #94
#87
Talent #96
#85
SP+ #76
#92
SP+ Off #74
#37
SP+ Def #81
#127

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat South Alabama last year (52-38)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USA | UNT
Depth Chart: USA | UNT
Rosters: USA | UNT
(#90) North Texas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.4 #90
Offense Rating: 9.28 #98
Defense Rating: 17.88 #87
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #127
Talent Rating: 592.00 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.91 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.03 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


North Texas Notes
(3/23) QB Mestemaker/Poffenbarger(UM)/Jimerson(Fr)
(3/23) RB rebuild, McGill/Sibley? 3 Portal adds
(3/23) WR rebuild, have 5 exp options. Evans (SHSU)
(3/23) Def bad LY, 9 DL, 7 DB portal adds, new DC
(3/23) New DC Cassity was SHSU DC, Alb Chr before
(3/22) 8 portals from SHSU (4 starters) with DC


  
South Alabama's OC Paul Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bishop Davenport487961%604317.6
Zach Pyron (Tr)356554%409236.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kentrel Bullock15283275.559
Bishop Davenport3716114.450
Zach Pyron (Tr)3611543.220
PJ Martin139817.545
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin34407012.028
Kentrel Bullock15153110.228
Anthony Eager10133213.338
Miller McCrumby (Tr)117907.213

View South Alabama's Full Roster
South Alabama's DC Will Windham
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blayne Myrick1018232
Darius McKenzie724104
Wesley Miller592004
Ed Smith IV234230
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Shattuck113301
Tyler Thomas194300
Blayne Myrick1018232
Ed Smith IV234230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darius McKenzie724104
Wesley Miller592004
Blayne Myrick1018232

North Texas's OC Jordan Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker304665%4622210.0
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)6786%20002.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makenzie McGill78470106.075
Kiefer Sibley4420604.719
Ashaad Clayton2719817.328
Drew Mestemaker148716.270
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Simeon Evans (Tr)43474511.064
Miles Coleman36378210.549
Dalton Carnes29371212.834
Wyatt Young18295216.475

View North Texas's Full Roster
North Texas's DC Skyler Cassity
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Fields (Tr)726121
Ethan Wesloski575321
Quinton Hammonds522011
Shane Whitter492023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Briceon Hayes (Tr)267532
Richard Outland155330
Ethan Wesloski575321
Fatafehi Vailea344320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)332006
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)262004
Taylor Starling202004