South Alabama at Auburn - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Alabama logo South Alabama Jaguars at Auburn Tigers(#24)Auburn logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (12:45 PM EDT)
Auburn -26.5 (56.5) (-3600)  Open: 0.0
Auburn 31 - South Alabama: 15

 
Jaguars (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (15 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
AUB 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Auburn -32.5   (SP+ AUB -20)

Projected Score: USA: 10 - AUB: 43 (53)
AUB Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
USA Travel: 200 miles
Tigers (3 - 0) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 37 - 14 (37 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#29)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 6) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 South Alabama vs Morgan State-28.551.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 9/6 South Alabama vs Tulane+13.551.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 9/13 South Alabama at Auburn+26.556.5L 15 - 31UY
Sat 9/20 South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina-14.550.5
Sat 9/27 South Alabama at North Texas+13
Sat 10/4 South Alabama at Troy+1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 South Alabama vs Arkansas State-12.5
Thu 10/23 South Alabama at Georgia State-12.5
Sat 11/1 South Alabama vs Louisiana-7
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Alabama at UL Monroe-12
Sat 11/22 South Alabama vs Southern Miss-2
Sat 11/29 South Alabama at Texas State+6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Auburn at Baylor-1.557.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Auburn vs Ball State-43.052.5W 42 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 Auburn vs South Alabama-26.556.5W 31 - 15UN
Sat 9/20 Auburn at Oklahoma+6.548.5
Sat 9/27 Auburn at Texas A&M+1
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Auburn vs Georgia-0
Sat 10/18 Auburn vs Missouri-2.5
Sat 10/25 Auburn at Arkansas-6
Sat 11/1 Auburn vs Kentucky-18
Sat 11/8 Auburn at Vanderbilt-3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Auburn vs Mercer-48
Sat 11/29 Auburn vs Alabama+2

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#64 (.22)44% (61)2844% (69)3.29 (37)17444% (64)1924.3 (52)#109 (.23)47% (117)28.351% (122)41% (76)5.38 (130)31.71.71.7
AUB#33 (.33)55% (14)3757% (14)3.61 (21)24252% (25)1745.63 (8)#58 (.11)31% (16)1423% (3)39% (64)3.38 (63)63.70.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#5 (.34)50% (9)53% (4)3.57 (6)19947% (18)2434.66 (13)#58 (.15)41% (58)39% (28)43% (96)3.66 (56)70.80.91.5
AUB#42 (.24)45% (40)48% (21)3.32 (23)16642% (67)2643.42 (110)#21 (.09)38% (20)38% (19)38% (34)3.35 (25)49.31.81.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Offense3281544.2%4.31.7213661741924.264%36%44%44%13%.22
AUB Defense314931.3%3.381 - - - - - 47%53%23%39%19%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Defense328.33146.9%5.381.7 - - - - - 60%40%51%41%16%.23
AUB Offense33736.555.3%5.630.3244162421745.861%39%57%52%12%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Alabama327:4620.736%60%531.71.71.75.71.7029.7
Auburn330:3223.753%100%763.70.318.73.7128.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Offense364% (9)44% (69)41.3174.34.25 (62).13 (71)3.29 (37)78% (41)10% (93)0.91 (85)
AUB Defense347% (48)23% (3) - - - - -.1 (19)1.89 (6)88% (118)15% (14)1.14 (104)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Defense360% (122)51% (122) - - - - .21 (111)3.12 (105)94% (125)10% (61)0.92 (68)
AUB Offense361% (14)57% (14)41.72425.810 (10).35 (23)3.61 (21)96% (12)9% (69)0.94 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Offense336% (127)44% (64)1621.7191.78.9126 (34)1 (23).37 (53)1.7 (23)26% (32)30% (81).28 (83)3% (31)2.1 (54)
AUB Defense353% (91)39% (64) - - - - - - 1 (87).3 (101)1.9 (120)39% (11)27% (55).3 (79)3% (120)2.3 (112)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Defense340% (15)41% (76) - - - - - - 1 (87).26 (88)1.4 (39)30% (92)32% (90).27 (70)6% (66)1.7 (38)
AUB Offense339% (123)52% (25)16.724.7173.7710.44 (72)0 (1).3 (66)1.2 (128)18% (2)30% (77).16 (108)4% (35)1.5 (121)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -7.76 #101
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 11.42 #76
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 19.18 #114
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3 #79
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #93

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -7.76   Auburn: 26.98

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.3   Auburn: 16.9




Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 26.98 #6
Auburn's Offense Rating: 28.70 #8
Auburn's Defense Rating: -5.55 #8
2025 Talent Rating: 988.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Auburn's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
Auburn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9 #19
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #13

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense on Road: 15
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 43
South Alabama 10


Total Points: 53

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 37 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.5
Defense: 14 PPG
Defense at Home: 9

Auburn's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Auburn31South Alabama15AuburnAuburn -26.5South Alabama56.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Auburn100 Overs
South Alabama011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#101) South Alabama Info
Power Rating: -7.76 #101
Offense Rating: 11.42 #76
Defense Rating: 19.18 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #93
Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.3 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Poor OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

South Alabama has lost 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

South Alabama Notes
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Running more of a balanced, pro style offense
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot

South Alabama Highlights
South Alabama does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#26)

South Alabama defense does not give up big plays (#28)

South Alabama Deficiencies
South Alabama has a bad TO Margin (#107)
South Alabama Fumbles a Lot (#128)
South Alabama has a bad defense (#117)
South Alabama has a bad defensive line (#105)
South Alabama has a bad red zone defense (#130)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatAUBUSA
OverallOver#32#82
OffenseOff#33#72
DefenseDef#50#90
Special TeamsST#83#61
PassingPass#94#69
RushingRush#9#32
Run BlockRBLK#20#97
Pass BlockPBLK#63#105
Route RunningWR Rt#61#33
TacklingTkl#91#117
Run DefenseR Def#6#104
Pass Rush DefPRush#36#89
Coverage DefCov#104#48

Rematch from Week 3
Auburn -26.5 (56.5)
Auburn won vs South Alabama this year (31-15)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USA | AUB
Depth Chart: USA | AUB
Rosters: USA | AUB
(#6) Auburn Info
Power Rating: 26.98 #6
Offense Rating: 28.70 #8
Defense Rating: -5.55 #8
Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9 #19
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #13
Talent Rating: 988.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
Great Offense Success Rate of 55%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.63 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Good Pass Success 52%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 31%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.38 PPO
Great Run Def Success 23%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Auburn has won 2 straight
Auburn has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Auburn Notes
(8/29) Arnold much better, run off great, pass D awful
(8/16) WTF is calling plays? Hate what I'm hearing
(7/16) WR2 (LY) Simmons arrested on serious charges
(7/8) Freeze is 2-6 at home in SEC games
(6/6) OL returns 5/5, plus portal adds. PFF top 10 unit
(5/23) DE Faulk a star, duo w/ Crawford top unit
(5/23) Aub was 1-3 in 1 score games LY (1-3 in '23)
(5/23) Safeties Harris & Smith a top duo in CFB
(5/11) SEC most exp'd line, 67% returning, 33% portals
(4/4) QB Arnold (OU) likely starter, Daniels/Knight #2?

Auburn Highlights
Auburn in Undefeated
Auburn is Undefeated at Home

Auburn has Really Good Running Game (#11)
Auburn offense is efficent (#14)
Auburn has a top Offensive Line (#21)
Auburn offense is good in red zone (#8)
Auburn offense is good on 3rd downs
Auburn does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#13)

Auburn Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Auburn has a really good defense (#16)
Auburn has a good run defense (#3)
Auburn Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#9)
Auburn Defensive Line is very good (#6)
Auburn Front 7 is disruptive (#14)
Auburn has a great TO Margin (#11)

Auburn Deficiencies
Auburn offense is not Explosive (#125)
Auburn gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#131)


  
South Alabama's OC Paul Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bishop Davenport476473%567618.9
Jared Hollins11100%8008.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kentrel Bullock6329134.620
PJ Martin228814.016
Bishop Davenport227913.616
Keenan Phillips155803.912
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin19266414.065
Anthony Eager1211519.634
Jeremy Scott574114.834
Miller McCrumby (Tr)561012.232

View South Alabama's Full Roster
South Alabama's DC Will Windham
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Dozier (Tr)200000
Darius McKenzie190000
Christopher Wallace Jr.173000
Wesley Miller170001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathan Jennings22200
Tirrell Johnson Jr.114100
Dominic Wiseman31100
E'Mauri Smiley51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Goodwill142005
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)70003
Wesley Miller170001

Auburn's OC Derrick Nix
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)486970%501407.3
Deuce Knight2540%20004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Cobb4631446.846
Jackson Arnold (Tr)3519245.527
Damari Alston168415.311
Durell Robinson (Tr)357119.054
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)13149211.530
Cam Coleman10149114.932
Horatio Fields (Tr)108818.814
Malcolm Simmons563012.626

View Auburn's Full Roster
Auburn's DC D. J. Durkin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford165310
Xavier Atkins (Tr)124210
Kaleb Harris121000
Sylvester Smith111000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford165310
Xavier Atkins (Tr)124210
Jared Smith33200
Keldric Faulk82112
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keldric Faulk82112
Demarcus Riddick61101
Champ Anthony20001