South Alabama at Auburn - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (12:45 PM EDT)
Auburn -26.5 (56.5) (-3600) Open: 0.0
Auburn 31 - South Alabama: 15

Jaguars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)

AUB 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Auburn -29 (SP+ AUB -24)
Projected Score: USA: 12 - AUB: 41 (54)
AUB Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
USA Travel: 200 miles

Tigers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (26 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
AUB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	South Alabama vs Morgan State	-28.5	51.5	W 38 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/6	South Alabama vs Tulane	+13.5	51.5	L 31 - 33	O	Y
Sat 9/13	South Alabama at Auburn	+26.5	56.5	L 15 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/20	South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina	-14.5	51.5	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/27	South Alabama at North Texas	+13.5	63.5	L 22 - 36	U	N
Sat 10/4	South Alabama at Troy	-2.5	46.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	South Alabama vs Arkansas State	-8.5	57.5	L 14 - 15	U	N
Thu 10/23	South Alabama at Georgia State	-5.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/1	South Alabama vs Louisiana	-3.5	52.5	L 22 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-4.0	49.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/22	South Alabama vs Southern Miss	+2.5	53.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/29	South Alabama at Texas State	+9.5	62.5	L 26 - 49	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Auburn's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Auburn at Baylor	-1.5	57.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Auburn vs Ball State	-43.0	52.5	W 42 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/13	Auburn vs South Alabama	-26.5	56.5	W 31 - 15	U	N
Sat 9/20	Auburn at Oklahoma	+6.5	47.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/27	Auburn at Texas A&M	+6.5	51.5	L 10 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Auburn vs Georgia	+4.5	45.5	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/18	Auburn vs Missouri	+1.5	43.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/25	Auburn at Arkansas	+2.5	55.5	W 33 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Auburn vs Kentucky	-11.5	44.5	L 3 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/8	Auburn at Vanderbilt	+6.0	46.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Auburn vs Mercer	-26.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Auburn vs Alabama	+6.5	48.5	L 20 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#5 (.34)	50% (9)	26.5	53% (4)	3.57 (6)	199	47% (18)	243	4.66 (13)	#58 (.15)	41% (58)	30.4	39% (28)	43% (96)	3.66 (56)	70.8	0.9	1.5
AUB	#42 (.24)	45% (40)	26.8	48% (21)	3.32 (23)	166	42% (67)	264	3.42 (110)	#21 (.09)	38% (20)	20.7	38% (19)	38% (34)	3.35 (25)	49.3	1.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AUB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	13	26.5	25.2	49.8%	4.66	0.9	22	442	199	243	5.8	51%	49%	53%	47%	14%	.34
AUB Defense	12	20.7	16.4	37.8%	3.35	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	38%	38%	15%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	13	30.4	32	40.9%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	39%	43%	16%	.15
AUB Offense	12	26.8	26.4	44.9%	3.42	1.8	21	430	166	264	5	48%	52%	48%	42%	17%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	13	29:20	21.5	39%	68%	8.2	70.8	0.9	1.5	5.6	1.6	4	29.3
Auburn	12	27:13	20.9	41%	47%	5.8	49.3	1.8	1.1	5.7	2.3	1	27.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	13	51% (67)	53% (4)	34.1	199.2	5.8	32 (14)	.33 (3)	3.57 (6)	82% (12)	10% (79)	1.06 (40)
AUB Defense	12	53% (98)	38% (19)	-	-	-	-	-.02 (7)	2.49 (6)	80% (108)	10% (81)	0.93 (44)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	13	48% (38)	39% (28)	-	-	-	-	.09 (53)	2.78 (32)	71% (51)	10% (78)	1.05 (98)
AUB Offense	12	48% (85)	48% (21)	33.4	165.7	5	13 (105)	.16 (55)	3.32 (23)	69% (95)	10% (67)	0.92 (89)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	13	49% (68)	47% (18)	19.5	30	243.2	8.1	12.5	21 (51)	6 (10)	.36 (27)	1.5 (101)	29% (27)	33% (49)	.48 (15)	4% (14)	2.2 (14)
AUB Defense	12	47% (42)	38% (34)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.22 (63)	1.7 (104)	35% (19)	28% (34)	.21 (31)	6% (77)	2.1 (85)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	13	52% (98)	43% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.24 (73)	1.5 (32)	32% (69)	30% (55)	.15 (8)	6% (59)	1.7 (5)
AUB Offense	12	52% (47)	42% (67)	19.2	30.8	263.9	8.6	13.8	27 (20)	13 (103)	.31 (45)	1.6 (39)	31% (55)	32% (69)	.41 (34)	7% (113)	1.9 (101)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -11.71 #109
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 9.74 #89
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 21.45 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #114
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -11.71 Auburn: 16.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -12.7 Auburn: 11.6

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 16.64 #16
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.79 #48
Auburn's Defense Rating: 0.11 #10
2025 Talent Rating: 988.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Auburn's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Auburn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #29
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #16

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 41
South Alabama 12

Projected Total Points: 54

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.4

Auburn's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Auburn	31	South Alabama	15	Auburn -26.5	South Alabama	56.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Auburn	1	0	0 Overs
South Alabama	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#109) USA at (#16) AUB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	AUB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#109	#16
SP+SP+	#114	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#110	#81
OffenseOff	#92	#95
DefenseDef	#112	#48
Spec TeamsST	#94	#91
TalentTal	#103	#12
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#12

South Alabama Notes(10/15) HC Applewhite & staff on thin ice after 0-6 streak
(10/15) Strange trend, 7 pts 1Q, 0 2Q in past 3 games
(9/21) Off bad, Def worse. Flags, TO's, not buttoned up
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama Injury Report

Auburn Notes(12/2) DC D. J. Durkin will remain on Golesh staff in '26
(11/30) Hired Alex Golesh (S Florida, former Tenn OC).
(11/20) QB1 Fr Deuce Knight will start vs Mercer, Bama
(11/2) HC Hugh Freeze fired after UK loss
(11/1) Home L to UK w/ 241 total yds. Freeze done
(10/31) Ashton Daniels will start vs UK, Arnold benched
(10/25) WR Coleman & Singleton both hurt vs Ark
(10/24) QB1 battle in week 9, Arnold still the starter. Yikes
(10/23) Auburn on a 3-11 run vs P4 teams since '24
(10/22) K A McPherson bad, longest FG is 34 yards
(10/20) Top OL Center Connor Lew out for season (ACL)
(10/13) RB2 Damari Alston left team, will transfer
Auburn Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	AUB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#92	#48
SuccessSuc	#9	#20
ExplosiveExp	#76	#74
PPAPPA	#5	#21
PowerPwr	#89	#10
SP+SP+	#82	#16
Pts POPPO	#13	#25
HavocHav	#39	#79

South Alabama Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#6	#11
Run SuccessRSuc	#4	#19
Run ExplRExp	#40	#44
PPAExp	#3	#7
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	#6	#6
Stuff RateStuff	#18	#20
TackleTak	-	#65

South Alabama Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#18	#34
Pass ExplPExl	#101	#104
PPAExp	#27	#63
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#78	#46
F7 HavocF7	#79	#81
DB HavocDB	#14	#77

Auburn on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#95	#112
SuccessSuc	#40	#58
ExplosiveExp	#71	#80
PPAPPA	#42	#58
PowerPwr	#48	#119
SP+SP+	#59	#125
Pts POPPO	#110	#56
HavocHav	#94	#70

Auburn Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#46	#131
Run SuccessRSuc	#21	#28
Run ExplRExp	#89	#98
PPAExp	#55	#53
Run BlockR Blk	#55	-
OL YdsOLY	#23	#32
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#85
TackleTak	-	#124

Auburn Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#67	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#39	#32
PPAExp	#45	#73
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#74	#131
F7 HavocF7	#67	#78
DB HavocDB	#113	#59

Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

USA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
Auburn -26.5 (56.5)
Auburn won vs South Alabama this year (31-15)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat South Alabama last year (31-15)

USA's OC Rob Ezell (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bishop Davenport	200	294	68%	2072	12	6	7.0
Jared Hollins	12	16	75%	101	1	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kentrel Bullock	218	1085	14	5.0	64
Keenan Phillips	126	622	3	4.9	54
Bishop Davenport	116	326	9	2.8	56
PJ Martin	60	326	2	5.4	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Voisin	67	775	4	11.6	65
Jeremy Scott	24	417	4	17.4	74
Anthony Eager	40	339	1	8.5	48
Miller McCrumby (Tr)	15	128	0	8.5	32

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blayne Myrick	84	6	0	3	3
Christopher Wallace Jr.	73	4	0	0	0
Darius McKenzie	71	4	1	1	1
Tirrell Johnson Jr.	54	6	1	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Thomas	16	3	2	2	0
Nathan Jennings	13	2	2	0	0
Achilles Woods	12	2	1	1	0
Darius McKenzie	71	4	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)	31	3	13
Ty Goodwill	35	5	7
Jayvon Henderson (Tr)	27	2	5

AUB's OC Derrick Nix (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)	136	215	63%	1309	6	2	6.1
Ashton Daniels (Tr)	68	119	57%	797	3	2	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Cobb	175	969	5	5.5	46
Jackson Arnold (Tr)	112	311	8	2.8	56
Ashton Daniels (Tr)	63	280	2	4.4	26
Deuce Knight	13	178	4	13.7	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Coleman	57	725	5	12.7	46
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)	58	534	3	9.2	48
Malcolm Simmons	25	457	2	18.3	91
Perry Thompson	17	154	0	9.1	34

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)	84	17	9	7	1
Robert Woodyard Jr.	67	7	2	5	1
Kaleb Harris	50	2	1	0	1
Keyron Crawford	36	10	5	10	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)	84	17	9	7	1
Keyron Crawford	36	10	5	10	0
Chris Murray (Tr)	15	4	4	1	0
Keldric Faulk	27	5	2	6	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kayin Lee	31	0	0	0	4
Jay Crawford	15	1	0	0	4
Keldric Faulk	27	5	2	6	4