South Alabama at Georgia State - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Alabama logo South Alabama Jaguars at Georgia State PanthersGeorgia State logo
Thursday, October 23rd 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Georgia State Stadium - Atlanta, GA  (Sun Belt)

 
Jaguars (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (15 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
GAST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Alabama -12.5   (SP+ USA -15.5)

Projected Score: USA: 33 - GAST: 21 (54)
USA Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
USA Travel: 300 miles, 1 hrs behind
Panthers (1 - 2) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 41 (27 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
 
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 South Alabama vs Morgan State-28.551.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 9/6 South Alabama vs Tulane+13.551.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 9/13 South Alabama at Auburn+26.556.5L 15 - 31UY
Sat 9/20 South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina-14.550.5
Sat 9/27 South Alabama at North Texas+13
Sat 10/4 South Alabama at Troy+1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 South Alabama vs Arkansas State-12.5
Thu 10/23 South Alabama at Georgia State-12.5
Sat 11/1 South Alabama vs Louisiana-7
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Alabama at UL Monroe-12
Sat 11/22 South Alabama vs Southern Miss-2
Sat 11/29 South Alabama at Texas State+6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia State at Ole Miss+38.562.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia State vs Memphis+14.557.5L 16 - 38UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia State vs Murray State-31.563.5W 37 - 21UN
Sat 9/20 Georgia State at Vanderbilt+26.553.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Georgia State vs James Madison+21.5
Sat 10/11 Georgia State vs App State+8
Sat 10/18 Georgia State at Georgia Southern+5
Thu 10/23 Georgia State vs South Alabama+12.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina+9
Sat 11/15 Georgia State vs Marshall+4.5
Sat 11/22 Georgia State at Troy+16
Sat 11/29 Georgia State at Old Dominion+22.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#64 (.22)44% (61)2844% (69)3.29 (37)17444% (64)1924.3 (52)#109 (.23)47% (117)28.351% (122)41% (76)5.38 (130)31.71.71.7
GAST#94 (.13)37% (116)2030% (131)2.11 (128)13542% (76)2321.17 (134)#128 (.39)54% (133)40.753% (128)59% (134)4.88 (117)80.71.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#5 (.34)50% (9)53% (4)3.57 (6)19947% (18)2434.66 (13)#58 (.15)41% (58)39% (28)43% (96)3.66 (56)70.80.91.5
GAST#92 (.15)41% (90)42% (92)2.94 (86)13441% (79)2563.85 (76)#121 (.28)48% (123)49% (119)46% (118)4.42 (120)49.11.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Offense3281544.2%4.31.7213661741924.264%36%44%44%13%.22
GAST Defense340.729.554%4.881 - - - - - 57%41%53%59%16%.39
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Defense328.33146.9%5.381.7 - - - - - 60%40%51%41%16%.23
GAST Offense32026.536.6%1.171.7163681352324.347%53%30%42%20%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Alabama327:4620.736%60%531.71.71.75.71.7029.7
Georgia State330:4815.732%56%1080.71.716.71.7026.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Offense364% (9)44% (69)41.3174.34.25 (62).13 (71)3.29 (37)78% (41)10% (93)0.91 (85)
GAST Defense357% (113)53% (128) - - - - .41 (133)3.42 (127)90% (123)10% (61)1.14 (105)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Defense360% (122)51% (122) - - - - .21 (111)3.12 (105)94% (125)10% (61)0.92 (68)
GAST Offense347% (88)30% (131)31.3135.34.32 (109)-.18 (134)2.11 (128)56% (118)12% (117)1.2 (29)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Offense336% (127)44% (64)1621.7191.78.9126 (34)1 (23).37 (53)1.7 (23)26% (32)30% (81).28 (83)3% (31)2.1 (54)
GAST Defense341% (17)59% (134) - - - - - - 2 (56).61 (130)1.6 (76)23% (133)42% (129).41 (99)6% (73)1.7 (42)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Defense340% (15)41% (76) - - - - - - 1 (87).26 (88)1.4 (39)30% (92)32% (90).27 (70)6% (66)1.7 (38)
GAST Offense353% (47)42% (76)20.732232.37.311.26 (34)4 (121).41 (43)1.8 (14)35% (109)33% (54).42 (50)7% (114)2.6 (10)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -7.76 #101
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 11.42 #76
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 19.18 #114
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3 #79
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #93

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -7.76   Georgia State: -18.005

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.3   Georgia State: -18.8




Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -18.005 #135
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 2.00 #121
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 26.96 #132
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.8 #127
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.1 #133

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense on Road: 15
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
South Alabama 33
Georgia State 21


Total Points: 54

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 40.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202011/21South Alabama14Georgia State31Georgia StateGeorgia State -3.5Georgia State58.5Under
201911/23Georgia State28South Alabama15Georgia StateGeorgia State -9.5Georgia State57.0Under
201710/26Georgia State21South Alabama13Georgia StateGeorgia State -1Georgia State50.5Under
201610/29South Alabama13Georgia State10South AlabamaSouth Alabama -3.5Georgia State47.5Under
201511/21Georgia State24South Alabama10Georgia StateGeorgia State -1Georgia State60.5Under
201410/18South Alabama30Georgia State27South AlabamaSouth Alabama -17Georgia State0
201311/30Georgia State17South Alabama38South AlabamaSouth Alabama -9South Alabama0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia State460 Overs
South Alabama315 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 23 - 43 - 20 - 2
Road Teams2 - 54 - 32 - 02 - 3

(#101) South Alabama Info
Power Rating: -7.76 #101
Offense Rating: 11.42 #76
Defense Rating: 19.18 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #93
Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.3 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Poor OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

South Alabama has lost 6 straight
South Alabama has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

South Alabama Notes
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Running more of a balanced, pro style offense
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot

South Alabama Highlights
South Alabama does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#26)

South Alabama defense does not give up big plays (#28)

South Alabama Deficiencies
South Alabama has a bad TO Margin (#107)
South Alabama Fumbles a Lot (#128)
South Alabama has a bad defense (#117)
South Alabama has a bad defensive line (#105)
South Alabama has a bad red zone defense (#130)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatGASTUSA
OverallOver#93#82
OffenseOff#80#72
DefenseDef#93#90
Special TeamsST#104#61
PassingPass#49#69
RushingRush#74#32
Run BlockRBLK#96#97
Pass BlockPBLK#104#105
Route RunningWR Rt#44#33
TacklingTkl#59#117
Run DefenseR Def#93#104
Pass Rush DefPRush#95#89
Coverage DefCov#84#48

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USA | GAST
Depth Chart: USA | GAST
Rosters: USA | GAST
(#135) Georgia State Info
Power Rating: -18.005 #135
Offense Rating: 2.00 #121
Defense Rating: 26.96 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.8 #127
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.1 #133
Talent Rating: 596.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.17 PPO
Awful Run Success 30%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 54%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.88 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 53%
Awful Pass Def Success 59%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Georgia State has lost 4 straight
Georgia State has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Georgia State Notes
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
(3/24) QB Veilleux back, JAG. 2 portals added.
(3/24) New OC Jackson former Browns HC (NFL)
(3/24) New DC Pearson 1st time FBS DC.

Georgia State Highlights
Georgia State offense is explosive (#7)

Georgia State Deficiencies
Georgia State has a really bad Offense
Georgia State has a bad TO Margin (#107)
Georgia State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)
Georgia State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Georgia State offense is really bad (#116)
Georgia State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#131)
Georgia State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#134)
Georgia State run game is really bad (#131)
Georgia State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Georgia State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Georgia State has a bad defense (#133)
Georgia State Does Not Stuff Runs (#127)
Georgia State has a bad defensive line (#127)
Georgia State has a bad red zone defense (#117)


  
South Alabama's OC Paul Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bishop Davenport476473%567618.9
Jared Hollins11100%8008.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kentrel Bullock6329134.620
PJ Martin228814.016
Bishop Davenport227913.616
Keenan Phillips155803.912
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin19266414.065
Anthony Eager1211519.634
Jeremy Scott574114.834
Miller McCrumby (Tr)561012.232

View South Alabama's Full Roster
South Alabama's DC Will Windham
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Dozier (Tr)200000
Darius McKenzie190000
Christopher Wallace Jr.173000
Wesley Miller170001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathan Jennings22200
Tirrell Johnson Jr.114100
Dominic Wiseman31100
E'Mauri Smiley51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Goodwill142005
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)70003
Wesley Miller170001

Georgia State's OC Hue Jackson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley (Tr)324768%351137.5
Cameran Brown (Tr)253768%257406.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)2614015.429
Branson Robinson (Tr)187904.447
Cameran Brown (Tr)135814.522
TJ Peyton455013.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ted Hurst18275215.352
Javon Robinson (Tr)10146214.644
Leo Blackburn (Tr)75818.321
Camden Overton (Tr)552110.420

View Georgia State's Full Roster
Georgia State's DC Travis Pearson
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson204100
Jordan Huff (Tr)151002
Deuce Fillmore140001
Deuce Walker130000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson204100
Alex Mullings21100
D-Icey Hopkins103100
Marlin Dean (Tr)103120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damaine Wilson110003
Jordan Huff (Tr)151002
Bernard Causey III (Tr)62102