South Alabama at Georgia State - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Alabama logo South Alabama Jaguars at Georgia State PanthersGeorgia State logo
Thursday, October 23rd 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
South Alabama -5.5 (54.5) (-215)  Open: -6.5 | 53.5
South Alabama 38 - Georgia State: 31  (Sun Belt)

 
Jaguars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
GAST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Alabama -4.5  (SP+ USA -12)

Projected Score: USA: 29 - GAST: 25 (54)
USA Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
USA Travel: 300 miles, 1 hrs behind
Panthers (1 - 11) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
 
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 South Alabama vs Morgan State-28.551.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 9/6 South Alabama vs Tulane+13.551.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 9/13 South Alabama at Auburn+26.556.5L 15 - 31UY
Sat 9/20 South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina-14.551.5L 20 - 38ON
Sat 9/27 South Alabama at North Texas+13.563.5L 22 - 36UN
Sat 10/4 South Alabama at Troy-2.546.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 South Alabama vs Arkansas State-8.557.5L 14 - 15UN
Thu 10/23 South Alabama at Georgia State-5.554.5W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 South Alabama vs Louisiana-3.552.5L 22 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Alabama at UL Monroe-4.049.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 South Alabama vs Southern Miss+2.553.0W 42 - 35OY
Sat 11/29 South Alabama at Texas State+9.562.5L 26 - 49ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia State at Ole Miss+38.562.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia State vs Memphis+14.557.5L 16 - 38UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia State vs Murray State-31.563.5W 37 - 21UN
Sat 9/20 Georgia State at Vanderbilt+27.553.5L 21 - 70ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Georgia State vs James Madison+19.552.5L 7 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Georgia State vs App State+3.055.5L 20 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 Georgia State at Georgia Southern+6.558.5L 24 - 41ON
Thu 10/23 Georgia State vs South Alabama+5.554.5L 31 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina+7.056.5L 27 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Georgia State vs Marshall+9.559.5L 18 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Georgia State at Troy+9.551.0L 19 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Georgia State at Old Dominion+29.058.5L 10 - 27UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#80 (.16)42% (83)26.543% (77)3.03 (55)20140% (94)1814.01 (40)#117 (.24)43% (88)30.447% (117)40% (47)4.35 (127)54.911.3
GAST#88 (.14)41% (90)19.843% (74)2.89 (78)12440% (88)2543.39 (100)#126 (.27)46% (122)37.845% (104)47% (122)4.45 (128)67.91.40.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#5 (.34)50% (9)53% (4)3.57 (6)19947% (18)2434.66 (13)#58 (.15)41% (58)39% (28)43% (96)3.66 (56)70.80.91.5
GAST#92 (.15)41% (90)42% (92)2.94 (86)13441% (79)2563.85 (76)#121 (.28)48% (123)49% (119)46% (118)4.42 (120)49.11.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Offense1226.525.241.5%4.011213822011814.660%38%43%40%13%.16
GAST Defense1237.830.345.5%4.450.5 - - - - - 56%42%45%47%13%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Defense1230.43243.2%4.351.3 - - - - - 54%44%47%40%15%.24
GAST Offense1219.821.541%3.391.4203781242544.143%56%43%40%16%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Alabama1231:0820.643%54%6.554.911.34.71028.6
Georgia State1230:1019.639%44%8.667.91.40.54.81.5025.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Offense1260% (10)43% (77)44.3201.24.630 (60).14 (59)3.03 (55)76% (40)9% (54)1.02 (50)
GAST Defense1256% (128)45% (104) - - - - .18 (113)3.17 (114)77% (110)8% (120)0.97 (75)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Defense1254% (119)47% (117) - - - - .18 (111)3.15 (109)91% (136)8% (108)0.92 (51)
GAST Offense1243% (119)43% (74)30.5123.84.19 (122).06 (94)2.89 (78)63% (119)9% (69)0.87 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Offense1238% (125)40% (94)17.725.8181.1710.313 (86)6 (34).23 (80)1.5 (81)31% (56)27% (102).28 (73)4% (19)2.1 (32)
GAST Defense1242% (8)47% (122) - - - - - - 3 (123).43 (130)1.6 (109)28% (125)37% (134).48 (131)5% (104)2 (73)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Defense1244% (19)40% (47) - - - - - - 6 (100).34 (113)1.8 (129)33% (40)29% (63).37 (105)6% (59)2.3 (129)
GAST Offense1256% (16)40% (88)2439.6254.46.410.622 (42)11 (60).24 (71)1.6 (58)33% (107)32% (50).32 (62)7% (102)2 (76)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -11.94  #119
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 5.24  #89
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 17.18  #119
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00  #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9  #113
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #126

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -11.94   Georgia State: -16.44

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -11.9   Georgia State: -23.8




Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -16.44  #126
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 4.33  #97
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 18.41  #126
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00  #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.8  #133
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #117
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.8  #134

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
South Alabama 29
Georgia State 25


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
South Alabama 28
Georgia State 24

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
South Alabama 30
Georgia State 26

Total Points: 56
Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/23Georgia State31South Alabama38South Alabama -5.5South Alabama54.5Over
202011/21South Alabama14Georgia State31Georgia State -3.5Georgia State58.5Under
201911/23Georgia State28South Alabama15Georgia State -9.5Georgia State57.0Under
201710/26Georgia State21South Alabama13Georgia State -1Georgia State50.5Under
201610/29South Alabama13Georgia State10South Alabama -3.5Georgia State47.5Under
201511/21Georgia State24South Alabama10Georgia State -1Georgia State60.5Under
201410/18South Alabama30Georgia State27South Alabama -17Georgia State0
201311/30Georgia State17South Alabama38South Alabama -9South Alabama0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia State461 Overs
South Alabama425 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 33 - 53 - 20 - 3
Road Teams3 - 55 - 33 - 02 - 3

(#119) USA at (#126) GAST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSAGAST
Power RatePwr #119 #126
SP+SP+ #113 #133
Perf GradeGrade #101 #128
OffenseOff #88 #129
DefenseDef #96 #114
Spec TeamsST #61 #81
TalentTal #103 #94
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #56
South Alabama Notes
(10/15) HC Applewhite & staff on thin ice after 0-6 streak
(10/15) Strange trend, 7 pts 1Q, 0 2Q in past 3 games
(9/21) Off bad, Def worse. Flags, TO's, not buttoned up
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama Injury Report
Georgia State Notes
(10/23) QB Cameran Brown taken over for TJ Finley (awful)
(10/23) This defense is shameful, DC Travis Pearson no good
(10/20) Most penalized team in CFB, have had 4 gms of 13+
(10/12) Too many paycheck games & now killed by App? Oof
(9/30) 3 paycheck games + FCS, know nothing about GSU
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
Georgia State Injury Report
South Alabama on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
USA OffGAST Def
Perf GradePerf #88 #114
SuccessSuc #83 #122
ExplosiveExp #94 #81
PPAPPA #80 #126
PowerPwr #89 #126
SP+SP+ #80 #134
Pts POPPO #40 #128
HavocHav #30 #121
South Alabama Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
USA OffGAST Def
Run GameRun #10 #100
Run SuccessRSuc #77 #104
Run ExplRExp #50 #75
PPAExp #59 #113
Run BlockR Blk #133 -
OL YdsOLY #55 #114
Stuff RateStuff #26 #126
TackleTak -  #46
South Alabama Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
USA OffGAST Def
Pass GamePass #107 #100
Pass SuccessPSuc #94 #122
Pass ExplPExl #81 #109
PPAExp #80 #130
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #51 #108
F7 HavocF7 #54 #120
DB HavocDB #19 #104
Georgia State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatGAST OffUSA Def
Perf GradePerf #129 #96
SuccessSuc #90 #88
ExplosiveExp #64 #72
PPAPPA #88 #117
PowerPwr #97 #119
SP+SP+ #117 #126
Pts POPPO #100 #127
HavocHav #79 #94
Georgia State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
GAST OffUSA Def
Run GameRun #124 #112
Run SuccessRSuc #74 #117
Run ExplRExp #111 #51
PPAExp #94 #111
Run BlockR Blk #135 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #109
Stuff RateStuff #96 #102
TackleTak -  #129
Georgia State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatGAST OffUSA Def
Pass GamePass #58 #31
Pass SuccessPSuc #88 #47
Pass ExplPExl #58 #129
PPAExp #71 #113
Pass Block/RushP Blk #130 #130
F7 HavocF7 #69 #108
DB HavocDB #102 #59
Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 62°
Rematch from Week 9
South Alabama 5.5 (54.5)
South Alabama won at Georgia State this year (38-31)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
USA's OC Paul Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bishop Davenport20029468%20721267.0
Jared Hollins121675%101106.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kentrel Bullock2181085145.064
Keenan Phillips12662234.954
Bishop Davenport11632692.856
PJ Martin6032625.438
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin67775411.665
Jeremy Scott24417417.474
Anthony Eager4033918.548
Miller McCrumby (Tr)1512808.532

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blayne Myrick846033
Christopher Wallace Jr.734000
Darius McKenzie714111
Tirrell Johnson Jr.546131
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Thomas163220
Nathan Jennings132200
E'Mauri Smiley151110
Emmanuel Waller (Tr)143120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Ty Goodwill355007
Jayvon Henderson (Tr)272005

GAST's OC Hue Jackson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley (Tr)12720163%1244676.2
Cameran Brown (Tr)11918465%12591316.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Simmons9754325.692
Cameran Brown (Tr)6128444.722
Rashad Amos (Tr)6326724.229
Branson Robinson (Tr)4614813.247
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ted Hurst711004614.170
Javon Robinson (Tr)58599410.346
Grant Hollier21288413.752
Jordan Simmons2819216.932

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Travis Pearson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson968211
Jaylen Jones665001
Kedrick Walker577310
D-Icey Hopkins513105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jartavius Flounoy226311
Kedrick Walker577310
Josiah Robinson968211
Richard Kramer (Tr)132200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bernard Causey III (Tr)192106
D-Icey Hopkins513105
Jordan Huff (Tr)471004