South Alabama at Georgia State - 2025 Matchup Preview

South Alabama Jaguars at Georgia State Panthers

Thursday, October 23rd 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
South Alabama -5.5 (54.5) (-215) Open: -6.5 | 53.5
South Alabama 38 - Georgia State: 31 (Sun Belt)

Jaguars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)

GAST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Alabama -5 (SP+ USA -12)
Projected Score: USA: 30 - GAST: 25 (55)
USA Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
USA Travel: 300 miles, 1 hrs behind

Panthers (1 - 11) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
GAST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	South Alabama vs Morgan State	-28.5	51.5	W 38 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/6	South Alabama vs Tulane	+13.5	51.5	L 31 - 33	O	Y
Sat 9/13	South Alabama at Auburn	+26.5	56.5	L 15 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/20	South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina	-14.5	51.5	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/27	South Alabama at North Texas	+13.5	63.5	L 22 - 36	U	N
Sat 10/4	South Alabama at Troy	-2.5	46.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	South Alabama vs Arkansas State	-8.5	57.5	L 14 - 15	U	N
Thu 10/23	South Alabama at Georgia State	-5.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/1	South Alabama vs Louisiana	-3.5	52.5	L 22 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-4.0	49.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/22	South Alabama vs Southern Miss	+2.5	53.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/29	South Alabama at Texas State	+9.5	62.5	L 26 - 49	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Georgia State at Ole Miss	+38.5	62.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/6	Georgia State vs Memphis	+14.5	57.5	L 16 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/13	Georgia State vs Murray State	-31.5	63.5	W 37 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/20	Georgia State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	53.5	L 21 - 70	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Georgia State vs James Madison	+19.5	52.5	L 7 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Georgia State vs App State	+3.0	55.5	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/18	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	+6.5	58.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Thu 10/23	Georgia State vs South Alabama	+5.5	54.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+7.0	56.5	L 27 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/15	Georgia State vs Marshall	+9.5	59.5	L 18 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/22	Georgia State at Troy	+9.5	51.0	L 19 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/29	Georgia State at Old Dominion	+29.0	58.5	L 10 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#5 (.34)	50% (9)	26.5	53% (4)	3.57 (6)	199	47% (18)	243	4.66 (13)	#58 (.15)	41% (58)	30.4	39% (28)	43% (96)	3.66 (56)	70.8	0.9	1.5
GAST	#92 (.15)	41% (90)	19.8	42% (92)	2.94 (86)	134	41% (79)	256	3.85 (76)	#121 (.28)	48% (123)	37.8	49% (119)	46% (118)	4.42 (120)	49.1	1.6	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	13	26.5	25.2	49.8%	4.66	0.9	22	442	199	243	5.8	51%	49%	53%	47%	14%	.34
GAST Defense	12	37.8	30.3	47.6%	4.42	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	49%	46%	14%	.28

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	13	30.4	32	40.9%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	39%	43%	16%	.15
GAST Offense	12	19.8	21.5	41.2%	3.85	1.6	21	390	134	256	4.5	42%	58%	42%	41%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	13	29:20	21.5	39%	68%	8.2	70.8	0.9	1.5	5.6	1.6	4	29.3
Georgia State	12	29:58	20.7	36%	37%	5.1	49.1	1.6	1.4	4	1.5	0	30.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	13	51% (67)	53% (4)	34.1	199.2	5.8	32 (14)	.33 (3)	3.57 (6)	82% (12)	10% (79)	1.06 (40)
GAST Defense	12	58% (130)	49% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (115)	3.36 (117)	79% (104)	8% (124)	0.95 (51)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	13	48% (38)	39% (28)	-	-	-	-	.09 (53)	2.78 (32)	71% (51)	10% (78)	1.05 (98)
GAST Offense	12	42% (118)	42% (92)	30	134	4.5	13 (105)	.06 (105)	2.94 (86)	67% (108)	10% (83)	0.95 (74)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	13	49% (68)	47% (18)	19.5	30	243.2	8.1	12.5	21 (51)	6 (10)	.36 (27)	1.5 (101)	29% (27)	33% (49)	.48 (15)	4% (14)	2.2 (14)
GAST Defense	12	42% (5)	46% (118)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.38 (124)	1.6 (80)	29% (108)	38% (125)	.46 (123)	6% (60)	1.8 (11)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	13	52% (98)	43% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.24 (73)	1.5 (32)	32% (69)	30% (55)	.15 (8)	6% (59)	1.7 (5)
GAST Offense	12	58% (15)	41% (79)	22.6	37.4	255.8	6.8	11.3	21 (51)	13 (103)	.24 (78)	1.6 (66)	33% (98)	32% (59)	.37 (54)	7% (114)	2.1 (53)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -11.71 #109
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 9.74 #89
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 21.45 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #114
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -11.71 Georgia State: -17.41

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -12.7 Georgia State: -24.5

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -17.41 #122
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 8.02 #100
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 23.34 #128
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.5 #133
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.6 #116
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.1 #134

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
South Alabama 30
Georgia State 25

Projected Total Points: 55

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/23	Georgia State	31	South Alabama	38	South Alabama -5.5	South Alabama	54.5	Over
2020	11/21	South Alabama	14	Georgia State	31	Georgia State -3.5	Georgia State	58.5	Under
2019	11/23	Georgia State	28	South Alabama	15	Georgia State -9.5	Georgia State	57.0	Under
2017	10/26	Georgia State	21	South Alabama	13	Georgia State -1	Georgia State	50.5	Under
2016	10/29	South Alabama	13	Georgia State	10	South Alabama -3.5	Georgia State	47.5	Under
2015	11/21	Georgia State	24	South Alabama	10	Georgia State -1	Georgia State	60.5	Under
2014	10/18	South Alabama	30	Georgia State	27	South Alabama -17	Georgia State	0
2013	11/30	Georgia State	17	South Alabama	38	South Alabama -9	South Alabama	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia State	4	6	1 Overs
South Alabama	4	2	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 3	3 - 5	3 - 2	0 - 3
Road Teams	3 - 5	5 - 3	3 - 0	2 - 3

(#109) USA at (#122) GAST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	GAST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#109	#122
SP+SP+	#114	#133
Perf GradeGrade	#110	#130
OffenseOff	#92	#128
DefenseDef	#112	#122
Spec TeamsST	#94	#90
TalentTal	#103	#94
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#56

South Alabama Notes(10/15) HC Applewhite & staff on thin ice after 0-6 streak
(10/15) Strange trend, 7 pts 1Q, 0 2Q in past 3 games
(9/21) Off bad, Def worse. Flags, TO's, not buttoned up
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama Injury Report

Georgia State Notes(10/23) QB Cameran Brown taken over for TJ Finley (awful)
(10/23) This defense is shameful, DC Travis Pearson no good
(10/20) Most penalized team in CFB, have had 4 gms of 13+
(10/12) Too many paycheck games & now killed by App? Oof
(9/30) 3 paycheck games + FCS, know nothing about GSU
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
Georgia State Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	GAST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#92	#122
SuccessSuc	#9	#123
ExplosiveExp	#76	#46
PPAPPA	#5	#121
PowerPwr	#89	#128
SP+SP+	#82	#134
Pts POPPO	#13	#120
HavocHav	#39	#109

South Alabama Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#6	#111
Run SuccessRSuc	#4	#119
Run ExplRExp	#40	#51
PPAExp	#3	#115
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	#6	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#18	#111
TackleTak	-	#45

South Alabama Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	#18	#118
Pass ExplPExl	#101	#80
PPAExp	#27	#124
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#78	#109
F7 HavocF7	#79	#124
DB HavocDB	#14	#60

Georgia State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#128	#112
SuccessSuc	#90	#58
ExplosiveExp	#46	#80
PPAPPA	#92	#58
PowerPwr	#100	#119
SP+SP+	#116	#125
Pts POPPO	#76	#56
HavocHav	#108	#70

Georgia State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#127	#131
Run SuccessRSuc	#92	#28
Run ExplRExp	#74	#98
PPAExp	#105	#53
Run BlockR Blk	#130	-
OL YdsOLY	#86	#32
Stuff RateStuff	#94	#85
TackleTak	-	#124

Georgia State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#63	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#79	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#66	#32
PPAExp	#78	#73
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#132	#131
F7 HavocF7	#83	#78
DB HavocDB	#114	#59

Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
South Alabama 5.5 (54.5)
South Alabama won at Georgia State this year (38-31)

Previous Matchups
South Alabama beat Georgia State last year (38-31)

USA's OC Rob Ezell (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bishop Davenport	200	294	68%	2072	12	6	7.0
Jared Hollins	12	16	75%	101	1	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kentrel Bullock	218	1085	14	5.0	64
Keenan Phillips	126	622	3	4.9	54
Bishop Davenport	116	326	9	2.8	56
PJ Martin	60	326	2	5.4	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Voisin	67	775	4	11.6	65
Jeremy Scott	24	417	4	17.4	74
Anthony Eager	40	339	1	8.5	48
Miller McCrumby (Tr)	15	128	0	8.5	32

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blayne Myrick	84	6	0	3	3
Christopher Wallace Jr.	73	4	0	0	0
Darius McKenzie	71	4	1	1	1
Tirrell Johnson Jr.	54	6	1	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Thomas	16	3	2	2	0
Nathan Jennings	13	2	2	0	0
Achilles Woods	12	2	1	1	0
Darius McKenzie	71	4	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)	31	3	13
Ty Goodwill	35	5	7
Jayvon Henderson (Tr)	27	2	5

GAST's OC Jim Chaney (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley (Tr)	127	201	63%	1244	6	7	6.2
Cameran Brown (Tr)	119	184	65%	1259	13	1	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Simmons	97	543	2	5.6	92
Cameran Brown (Tr)	61	284	4	4.7	22
Rashad Amos (Tr)	63	267	2	4.2	29
Branson Robinson (Tr)	46	148	1	3.2	47

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ted Hurst	71	1004	6	14.1	70
Javon Robinson (Tr)	58	599	4	10.3	46
Grant Hollier	21	288	4	13.7	52
Jordan Simmons	28	192	1	6.9	32

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Travis Pearson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josiah Robinson	96	8	2	1	1
Jaylen Jones	66	5	0	0	1
Kedrick Walker	57	7	3	1	0
D-Icey Hopkins	51	3	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jartavius Flounoy	22	6	3	1	1
Kedrick Walker	57	7	3	1	0
Josiah Robinson	96	8	2	1	1
Richard Kramer (Tr)	13	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Bernard Causey III (Tr)	19	2	1	6
D-Icey Hopkins	51	3	1	5
Jordan Huff (Tr)	47	1	0	4