San Diego State at Hawai'i - 2025 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsHawai
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (11:00 PM EST)
San Diego State -6.5 (48.5) (-258)  Open: -2.5
Hawai'i 38 - San Diego State: 6  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 3.6 (#29)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Wind: 15 MPH
Our Line: San Diego State -7.5  (SP+ SDSU -5.5)

Projected Score: SDSU: 28 - HAW: 21 (49)
SDSU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
SDSU Travel: 2609 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+14.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.541.5W 6 - 3UY
Fri 10/3 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-6.542.5W 44 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State-3.046.5W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.042.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.548.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State-1.541.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-10.050.5W 25 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 San Diego State at New Mexico-1.541.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 San Diego State vs North Texas+7.555.5L 47 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.553.5W 31 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.555.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.548.5W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+2.564.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming-8.545.0W 27 - 7UY
Wed 12/24 Hawai'i vs California-1.550.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#94 (.13)42% (72)26.446% (40)3.38 (9)17436% (121)1423.42 (94)#4 (-.01)35% (9)15.438% (19)33% (4)2.42 (4)500.91.2
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (98)9844% (49)2673.77 (61)#72 (.17)42% (67)24.143% (74)40% (58)3.35 (41)61.51.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1326.418.241.9%3.420.9163151741424.661%37%46%36%13%.13
HAW Defense1324.11741.6%3.351.1 - - - - - 46%52%43%40%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1315.418.334.8%2.421.2 - - - - - 48%50%38%33%15%-.01
HAW Offense13293141.2%3.771.319365982673.737%62%38%44%12%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1328:101632%50%5.5500.91.24.62.5431.3
Hawai'i1329:3718.645%53%7.161.51.31.14.62.2329.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1361% (9)46% (40)38.2173.84.620 (70).16 (44)3.38 (9)81% (14)7% (23)0.87 (110)
HAW Defense1346% (26)43% (74) - - - - .1 (66)3.21 (119)81% (124)9% (82)0.97 (76)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1348% (44)38% (19) - - - - .05 (45)3.03 (98)62% (12)8% (113)0.98 (78)
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)26.397.53.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (98)59% (131)7% (13)0.91 (90)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1337% (128)36% (121)11.419.5142.17.312.59 (106)8 (7).09 (127)1.7 (19)30% (44)20% (136).04 (133)6% (50)1.8 (121)
HAW Defense1352% (110)40% (58) - - - - - - 8 (55).25 (71)1.6 (77)34% (36)31% (82).42 (124)7% (41)2.2 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1350% (90)33% (4) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.04 (2)1.4 (16)35% (17)23% (7).06 (3)7% (24)1.8 (13)
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)24.337.8267.47.11126 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (31).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (17)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 4.59  #54
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 2.04  #114
San Diego State's Defense Rating: -2.55  #24
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #50
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #100
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #15

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 4.59   Hawai'i: -1.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 6.2   Hawai'i: 0.9




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -1.96  #108
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.56  #118
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 11.38  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #75
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 28
Hawai'i 21


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
San Diego State 31
Hawai'i 25

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 23
San Diego State 21

Total Points: 44
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 7 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Hawai'i38San Diego State6San Diego State -6.5Hawai'i48.5Under
202410/05San Diego State27Hawai'i24San Diego State -1.5San Diego State47.5Over
202310/14Hawai'i34San Diego State41San Diego State -6San Diego State51.5Over
202210/08San Diego State16Hawai'i14San Diego State -23.5Hawai'i48.5Under
202111/06Hawai'i10San Diego State17San Diego State -7NA45.0Under
202011/14San Diego State34Hawai'i10San Diego State -9.5San Diego State51.0Under
201911/23Hawai'i14San Diego State11Hawai'i -1Hawai'i47.0Under
201811/24San Diego State30Hawai'i31San Diego State -18Hawai'i54.0Over
201710/28Hawai'i7San Diego State28San Diego State -8San Diego State54.0Under
201611/05San Diego State55Hawai'i0San Diego State -19.5San Diego State50.5Over
201510/10Hawai'i14San Diego State28San Diego State -2San Diego State47.0Under
201410/18San Diego State20Hawai'i10San Diego State -10.5Hawai'i0
201311/16Hawai'i21San Diego State28San Diego State -5San Diego State0
201210/06San Diego State52Hawai'i14
200512/03Hawai'i49San Diego State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i454 Overs
San Diego State1177 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 65 - 74 - 31 - 4
Road Teams6 - 97 - 54 - 13 - 4

(#54) SDSU at (#108) HAW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUHAW
Power RatePwr #54 #108
SP+SP+ #50 #68
Perf GradeGrade #12 #100
OffenseOff #63 #107
DefenseDef #8 #96
Spec TeamsST #43 #71
TalentTal #95 #125
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
San Diego State Notes
(11/28) Great season goes thud w/ meltdown in 20T vs N Mex
(10/28) New DC Aurich leading #2 Def in all CFB. 10.4 ppg
(10/22) Top 3 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/4) Killed CSU, most total yards since '20. 250+ Pass/Run
(9/28) Def great, 3 points in last 2 games. Red Zone D tops
(9/23) CB Chris Johnson a lockdown, #2 Phillips good too
(9/21) Beat the brakes off Cal. Forced 3 TOs, Great win
(9/21) Defense is good, Offense is really bad. QBs bad
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
San Diego State Injury Report
Hawai'i Notes
(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffHAW Def
Perf GradePerf #63 #96
SuccessSuc #72 #67
ExplosiveExp #123 #87
PPAPPA #94 #72
PowerPwr #114 #87
SP+SP+ #100 #65
Pts POPPO #94 #41
HavocHav #27 #63
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #34 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #40 #74
Run ExplRExp #110 #76
PPAExp #44 #66
Run BlockR Blk #49 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #119
Stuff RateStuff #13 #117
TackleTak -  #128
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #105 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #121 #58
Pass ExplPExl #19 #77
PPAExp #127 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #51 #29
F7 HavocF7 #23 #82
DB HavocDB #50 #41
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffSDSU Def
Perf GradePerf #107 #8
SuccessSuc #88 #9
ExplosiveExp #29 #30
PPAPPA #62 #4
PowerPwr #118 #24
SP+SP+ #75 #15
Pts POPPO #61 #4
HavocHav #16 #75
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #111 #17
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #19
Run ExplRExp #90 #78
PPAExp #118 #45
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #98 #98
Stuff RateStuff #98 #108
TackleTak -  #16
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #45 #8
Pass SuccessPSuc #49 #4
Pass ExplPExl #61 #16
PPAExp #47 #2
Pass Block/RushP Blk #109 #35
F7 HavocF7 #13 #113
DB HavocDB #39 #24
Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 75° - Wind: 15 mph
Rematch from Week 11
San Diego State 6.5 (48.5)
Hawai'i won vs San Diego State this year (38-6)

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Hawai'i last year (27-24)
San Diego State beat Hawai'i in 2023 (41-34)
San Diego State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (16-14)

  
SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)14324459%1810987.4
Kyle Crum142948%169125.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington (Tr)9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3227328.572
Byron Cardwell4826715.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Donovan Brown33518215.752
Nathan Acevedo (Tr)16190011.942
Jacob Bostick (Tr)11157314.335

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Rob Aurich (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Chambliss909445
Dalesean Staley701008
Dwayne McDougle (Tr)472003
Trey White47117121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White47117121
Ryan Henderson219741
Niles King2910720
Owen Chambliss909445
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Eric Butler391036

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Luke Weaver6310560%628636.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims12255934.643
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Christian Vaughn199705.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)499631219.778
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Brandon White (Tr)38399210.546
Karsyn Pupunu3330609.322

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma733117
Jalen Smith543102
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III288730
De'jon Benton (Tr)299670
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Qwyn Williams (Tr)285320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Peter Manuma733117
Virdel Edwards311006