San Diego State at Northern Illinois - 2025 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Northern Illinois HuskiesNorthern Illinois logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
San Diego State -1.5 (41.5) (-125)  Open: -2.5
San Diego State 6 - Northern Illinois: 3

 
Aztecs (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 3.6 (#29)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Wind: 12.4 MPH
Our Line: San Diego State -17  (SP+ SDSU -22.5)

Projected Score: SDSU: 29 - NIU: 12 (42)
SDSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
SDSU Travel: 1671 miles, 2 hrs behind
Huskies (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (31 - 38)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (18 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
 
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+14.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.541.5W 6 - 3UY
Fri 10/3 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-6.542.5W 44 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State-3.046.5W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.042.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.548.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State-1.541.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-10.050.5W 25 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 San Diego State at New Mexico-1.541.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 San Diego State vs North Texas+7.555.5L 47 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross-13.548.5W 19 - 17UN
Fri 9/5 Northern Illinois at Maryland+17.044.5L 9 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Northern Illinois at Mississippi State+23.548.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 9/27 Northern Illinois vs San Diego State+1.541.5L 3 - 6UN
Sat 10/4 Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)+4.538.5L 14 - 25ON
Sat 10/11 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan-1.548.5L 10 - 16UN
Sat 10/18 Northern Illinois at Ohio+10.541.5L 21 - 48ON
Sat 10/25 Northern Illinois vs Ball State-6.541.5W 21 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Northern Illinois at Toledo+14.542.5L 3 - 42ON
Wed 11/12 Northern Illinois at Massachusetts-8.543.5W 45 - 3OY
Tue 11/18 Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+7.039.5L 19 - 35ON
Fri 11/28 Northern Illinois vs Kent State-5.045.0L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#94 (.13)42% (72)26.446% (40)3.38 (9)17436% (121)1423.42 (94)#4 (-.01)35% (9)15.438% (19)33% (4)2.42 (4)500.91.2
NIU#126 (.04)34% (132)17.138% (116)2.84 (84)18628% (136)993.04 (121)#86 (.19)44% (101)24.346% (113)41% (66)3.45 (52)380.91.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
NIU#86 (.16)42% (79)44% (72)3.25 (33)20440% (86)1793.39 (113)#11 (.06)38% (19)41% (52)35% (9)3.08 (12)42.81.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1326.418.241.9%3.420.9163151741424.661%37%46%36%13%.13
NIU Defense1224.320.844.1%3.451.1 - - - - - 58%40%46%41%11%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1315.418.334.8%2.421.2 - - - - - 48%50%38%33%15%-.01
NIU Offense1217.117.834.5%3.040.915284186994.565%34%38%28%13%.04

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1328:101632%50%5.5500.91.24.62.5431.3
Northern Illinois1229:131532%59%4.3380.91.13.31.2127.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1361% (9)46% (40)38.2173.84.620 (70).16 (44)3.38 (9)81% (14)7% (23)0.87 (110)
NIU Defense1258% (132)46% (113) - - - - .17 (106)3.18 (117)72% (78)7% (134)0.95 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1348% (44)38% (19) - - - - .05 (45)3.03 (98)62% (12)8% (113)0.98 (78)
NIU Offense1265% (6)38% (116)41.4185.64.516 (122).11 (74)2.84 (84)69% (86)10% (86)1.11 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1337% (128)36% (121)11.419.5142.17.312.59 (106)8 (7).09 (127)1.7 (19)30% (44)20% (136).04 (133)6% (50)1.8 (121)
NIU Defense1240% (5)41% (66) - - - - - - 9 (55).19 (47)1.5 (57)28% (122)36% (130).5 (134)5% (115)2.1 (107)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1350% (90)33% (4) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.04 (2)1.4 (16)35% (17)23% (7).06 (3)7% (24)1.8 (13)
NIU Offense1234% (131)28% (136)10.820.398.84.99.28 (128)6 (60) (134)1.6 (30)34% (117)23% (132).13 (127)3% (6)2.1 (46)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 4.59  #54
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 2.04  #114
San Diego State's Defense Rating: -2.55  #24
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #50
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #100
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #15

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 4.59   Northern Illinois: -11.455

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 6.2   Northern Illinois: -16.5




Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -11.455  #116
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 1.81  #116
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.22  #101
2025 Talent Rating: 526.00  #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Northern Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Northern Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.5  #128
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.4  #135
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #77

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 29
Northern Illinois 12


Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 24
San Diego State 22

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
San Diego State 22
Northern Illinois 17

Total Points: 39
Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.8

Northern Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Northern Illinois3San Diego State6San Diego State -1.5San Diego State41.5Under
201709/30San Diego State34Northern Illinois28San Diego State -9.5Northern Illinois47.5Over
201609/17Northern Illinois28San Diego State42San Diego State -8San Diego State48.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northern Illinois012 Overs
San Diego State321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 20 - 30 - 10 - 2
Road Teams2 - 13 - 02 - 01 - 0

(#54) SDSU at (#116) NIU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUNIU
Power RatePwr #54 #116
SP+SP+ #50 #128
Perf GradeGrade #12 #113
OffenseOff #63 #127
DefenseDef #8 #91
Spec TeamsST #43 #92
TalentTal #95 #113
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
San Diego State Notes
(11/28) Great season goes thud w/ meltdown in 20T vs N Mex
(10/28) New DC Aurich leading #2 Def in all CFB. 10.4 ppg
(10/22) Top 3 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/4) Killed CSU, most total yards since '20. 250+ Pass/Run
(9/28) Def great, 3 points in last 2 games. Red Zone D tops
(9/23) CB Chris Johnson a lockdown, #2 Phillips good too
(9/21) Beat the brakes off Cal. Forced 3 TOs, Great win
(9/21) Defense is good, Offense is really bad. QBs bad
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
San Diego State Injury Report
Northern Illinois Notes
(11/20) QB play abysmal, Rush Def mauled vs WMU
(11/5) Last MAC year, no bowl. No Offense. Grim outlook
(10/31) Off is worst in CFB, QBs awful, RB Johnson OK
(10/31) DL good, Def good but Off #'s are just ass
(10/19) Lost 6 straight, worst Off Success #'s in all CFB
(10/19) Program is regressing fast. OC Beschorner must go
(9/29) QB Holst benched, QB2 Davidson immediately picked
(9/25) Off poss worst in CFB, have no QB, rush Off worse
(8/30) Slog W over Holy Cross. 3.7 ypc, 4.5 ypp. Woof
(5/5) Portal QB Proctor (Dart) exciting, joins in summer
(5/5) QB1 Holst won spring, started 3 games LY
(5/5) WR Bryant, Pardridge and Givens top 3 spring
Northern Illinois Injury Report
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffNIU Def
Perf GradePerf #63 #91
SuccessSuc #72 #101
ExplosiveExp #123 #39
PPAPPA #94 #86
PowerPwr #114 #101
SP+SP+ #100 #77
Pts POPPO #94 #52
HavocHav #27 #132
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffNIU Def
Run GameRun #34 #85
Run SuccessRSuc #40 #113
Run ExplRExp #110 #62
PPAExp #44 #106
Run BlockR Blk #49 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #117
Stuff RateStuff #13 #119
TackleTak -  #15
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffNIU Def
Pass GamePass #105 #82
Pass SuccessPSuc #121 #66
Pass ExplPExl #19 #57
PPAExp #127 #47
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #51 #94
F7 HavocF7 #23 #134
DB HavocDB #50 #115
Northern Illinois on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCatNIU OffSDSU Def
Perf GradePerf #127 #8
SuccessSuc #132 #9
ExplosiveExp #58 #30
PPAPPA #126 #4
PowerPwr #116 #24
SP+SP+ #135 #15
Pts POPPO #121 #4
HavocHav #30 #75
Northern Illinois Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #72 #17
Run SuccessRSuc #116 #19
Run ExplRExp #15 #78
PPAExp #74 #45
Run BlockR Blk #85 -
OL YdsOLY #84 #98
Stuff RateStuff #60 #108
TackleTak -  #16
Northern Illinois Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCatNIU OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #136 #8
Pass SuccessPSuc #136 #4
Pass ExplPExl #30 #16
PPAExp #134 #2
Pass Block/RushP Blk #106 #35
F7 HavocF7 #86 #113
DB HavocDB #6 #24
Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 84° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 5
San Diego State 1.5 (41.5)
San Diego State won at Northern Illinois this year (6-3)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)14324459%1810987.4
Kyle Crum142948%169125.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington (Tr)9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3227328.572
Byron Cardwell4826715.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Donovan Brown33518215.752
Nathan Acevedo (Tr)16190011.942
Jacob Bostick (Tr)11157314.335

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Rob Aurich (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Chambliss909445
Dalesean Staley701008
Dwayne McDougle (Tr)472003
Trey White47117121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White47117121
Ryan Henderson219741
Niles King2910720
Owen Chambliss909445
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Eric Butler391036

NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Holst7813060%689435.3
Brady Davidson408746%384334.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chavon Wright19687554.545
Telly Johnson Jr.12469045.680
Jalen Macon4521654.836
Lazaro Rogers3318915.776
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DeAree Rogers46506311.050
Gary Givens III12145112.131
Rickey Taylor Jr.9134114.941
Telly Johnson Jr.169706.117

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinton Urwiler1278221
Filip Maciorowski766302
Jasper Beeler741102
Muhammed Jammeh571011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Filip Maciorowski766302
Jay'Shon Thomas193250
Roy Williams3332110
Quinton Urwiler1278221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Finley571007
Donte Harrison302005
Dev'ion Reynolds130003