San Diego State at Northern Illinois - 2025 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Northern Illinois HuskiesNorthern Illinois logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
San Diego State -1.5 (41.5) (-125)  Open: -2.5
San Diego State 6 - Northern Illinois: 3

 
Aztecs (7 - 1) (7 - 1 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 29 - 10 (22 - 12 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 1.7 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: San Diego State -17  (SP+ SDSU -23)
Projected Score: SDSU: 29 - NIU: 12 (40)
SDSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
SDSU Travel: 1671 miles, 2 hrs behind
Huskies (2 - 6) (2 - 6 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (31 - 38)
Avg Score : 13 - 22 (14 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 7.7 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
 
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+14.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.541.5W 6 - 3UY
Fri 10/3 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-6.542.5W 44 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State-3.046.5W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.042.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-7.050.5
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State-9
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-19.5
Fri 11/28 San Diego State at New Mexico-11

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross-13.548.5W 19 - 17UN
Fri 9/5 Northern Illinois at Maryland+17.044.5L 9 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Northern Illinois at Mississippi State+23.548.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 9/27 Northern Illinois vs San Diego State+1.541.5L 3 - 6UN
Sat 10/4 Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)+4.538.5L 14 - 25ON
Sat 10/11 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan-1.548.5L 10 - 16UN
Sat 10/18 Northern Illinois at Ohio+10.541.5L 21 - 48ON
Sat 10/25 Northern Illinois vs Ball State-6.541.5W 21 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Northern Illinois at Toledo+14.542.5
Wed 11/12 Northern Illinois at Massachusetts-14
Tue 11/18 Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+2
Fri 11/28 Northern Illinois vs Kent State-13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#60 (.19)45% (41)28.947% (36)3.49 (6)18642% (72)1823.98 (57)#1 (-.12)29% (2)1028% (1)30% (3)1.73 (2)60.90.81.5
NIU#133 (-)32% (135)13.435% (132)2.81 (72)17128% (136)1032.58 (133)#58 (.13)41% (71)22.143% (76)39% (53)2.98 (16)38.81.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
NIU#86 (.16)42% (79)44% (72)3.25 (33)20440% (86)1793.39 (113)#11 (.06)38% (19)41% (52)35% (9)3.08 (12)42.81.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense828.921.544.9%3.980.8193671861824.561%38%47%42%13%.19
NIU Defense822.113.841.4%2.981.1 - - - - - 58%41%43%39%12%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense81012.328.7%1.731.5 - - - - - 47%52%28%30%17%-.12
NIU Offense813.414.332.1%2.581.3142741711034.561%38%35%28%13%-

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State831:2718.534%50%6.660.90.81.54.92.4431.6
Northern Illinois828:3913.933%54%4.638.81.31.141.5126.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense861% (8)47% (36)41.41864.514 (70).14 (57)3.49 (6)76% (40)7% (18)0.76 (132)
NIU Defense858% (131)43% (76) - - - - .09 (81)2.58 (51)66% (40)7% (122)0.96 (67)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense847% (35)28% (1) - - - - -.1 (7)2.68 (59)62% (21)9% (96)0.9 (43)
NIU Offense861% (7)35% (132)38.1170.84.57 (122).04 (103)2.81 (72)73% (65)10% (93)1.08 (24)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense838% (130)42% (72)13.822181.98.313.28 (106)5 (7).31 (51)1.8 (6)27% (19)25% (120).2 (104)6% (73)1.9 (92)
NIU Defense841% (5)39% (53) - - - - - - 7 (55).16 (41)1.6 (81)29% (110)34% (119).43 (121)5% (110)2.1 (106)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense852% (102)30% (3) - - - - - - 10 (55)-.11 (1)1.5 (63)39% (4)19% (2)-.05 (2)8% (14)1.9 (52)
NIU Offense838% (129)28% (136)12.622.8103.14.58.25 (128)6 (60)- (134)1.6 (58)36% (127)21% (135).06 (130)3% (7)2 (63)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 10.20  #44
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 7.65  #77
San Diego State's Defense Rating: -2.55  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.3 - 1.7
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.2  #43
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #81
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1  #13

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 10.20   Northern Illinois: -7.715

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 8.2   Northern Illinois: -15.0




Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -7.715  #91
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 1.81  #116
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 7.24  #74
2025 Talent Rating: 526.00  #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Northern Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7
Northern Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.0  #121
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 9.8  #136
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #55

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 28.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.5
Defense: 10 PPG
Defense on Road: 12.3

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 29
Northern Illinois 12


Total Points: 40

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 22
San Diego State 20

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
San Diego State 22
Northern Illinois 13

Total Points: 35
Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 13.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 14.3
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.8

Northern Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 6
Record vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Northern Illinois3San Diego State6San Diego State -1.5San Diego State41.5Under
201709/30San Diego State34Northern Illinois28San Diego State -9.5Northern Illinois47.5Over
201609/17Northern Illinois28San Diego State42San Diego State -8San Diego State48.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northern Illinois012 Overs
San Diego State321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 20 - 30 - 10 - 2
Road Teams2 - 13 - 02 - 01 - 0

(#44) SDSU at (#91) NIU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUNIU
Power RatePwr #44 #91
SP+SP+ #43 #121
Perf GradeGrade #9 #118
OffenseOff #46 #128
DefenseDef #3 #72
Spec TeamsST #27 #84
TalentTal #95 #113
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
San Diego State Notes
(10/28) New DC Aurich leading #2 Def in all CFB. 10.4 ppg
(10/22) Top 3 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/4) Killed CSU, most total yards since '20. 250+ Pass/Run
(9/28) Def great, 3 points in last 2 games. Red Zone D tops
(9/23) CB Chris Johnson a lockdown, #2 Phillips good too
(9/21) Beat the brakes off Cal. Forced 3 TOs, Great win
(9/21) Defense is good, Offense is really bad. QBs bad
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
(7/12) WR Kitt-Denton (FCS) avg'd 18.1 ypc at NW St
San Diego State Injury Report
Northern Illinois Notes
(10/31) Off is worst in CFB, QBs awful, RB Johnson OK
(10/31) DL good, Def good but Off #'s are just ass
(10/19) Lost 6 straight, worst Off Success #'s in all CFB
(10/19) Program is regressing fast. OC Beschorner must go
(9/29) QB Holst benched, QB2 Davidson immediately picked
(9/25) Off poss worst in CFB, have no QB, rush Off worse
(8/30) Slog W over Holy Cross. 3.7 ypc, 4.5 ypp. Woof
(5/5) Portal QB Proctor (Dart) exciting, joins in summer
(5/5) QB1 Holst won spring, started 3 games LY
(5/5) WR Bryant, Pardridge and Givens top 3 spring
(5/5) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 2 more w/ exp. Lost 5 Srs
(4/27) Staff high on Fr QB Brady Davidson, best croot
Northern Illinois Injury Report
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffNIU Def
Perf GradePerf #46 #72
SuccessSuc #41 #71
ExplosiveExp #121 #65
PPAPPA #60 #58
PowerPwr #77 #74
SP+SP+ #81 #55
Pts POPPO #57 #16
HavocHav #38 #127
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffNIU Def
Run GameRun #36 #60
Run SuccessRSuc #36 #76
Run ExplRExp #132 #67
PPAExp #57 #81
Run BlockR Blk #54 -
OL YdsOLY #6 #51
Stuff RateStuff #6 #113
TackleTak -  #13
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffNIU Def
Pass GamePass #65 #82
Pass SuccessPSuc #72 #53
Pass ExplPExl #6 #81
PPAExp #51 #41
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #61 #110
F7 HavocF7 #18 #122
DB HavocDB #73 #110
Northern Illinois on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCatNIU OffSDSU Def
Perf GradePerf #128 #3
SuccessSuc #135 #2
ExplosiveExp #69 #61
PPAPPA #133 #1
PowerPwr #116 #20
SP+SP+ #136 #13
Pts POPPO #133 #2
HavocHav #38 #59
Northern Illinois Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
NIU OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #86 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #132 #1
Run ExplRExp #24 #43
PPAExp #103 #7
Run BlockR Blk #99 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #59
Stuff RateStuff #86 #85
TackleTak -  #21
Northern Illinois Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCatNIU OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #136 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #136 #3
Pass ExplPExl #58 #63
PPAExp #134 #1
Pass Block/RushP Blk #95 #41
F7 HavocF7 #93 #96
DB HavocDB #7 #14
Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
San Diego State 1.5 (41.5)
San Diego State won at Northern Illinois this year (6-3)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)10516763%1418858.5
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)5863%37004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton15381585.350
Byron Cardwell4023215.822
Christian Washington (Tr)5422324.127
Jayden Denegal (Tr)439012.129
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier45613213.680
Donovan Brown19260113.745
Jacob Bostick (Tr)11157314.335
Byron Cardwell5108121.654

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Rob Aurich (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Chambliss636214
Dalesean Staley401007
Chris Johnson382025
Trey White308671
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White308671
Ryan Henderson125441
August Salvati (Tr)64400
Niles King164310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley401007
Chris Johnson382025
Owen Chambliss636214

NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Holst7311762%602435.1
Brady Davidson265944%215133.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Telly Johnson Jr.9355936.080
Chavon Wright12249124.045
Josh Holst4714113.036
Lazaro Rogers2012716.476
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DeAree Rogers38439311.650
Gary Givens III10110011.021
Telly Johnson Jr.127005.817
George Dimopoulos115805.319

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinton Urwiler966220
Filip Maciorowski564302
Jasper Beeler511102
Muhammed Jammeh471011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Filip Maciorowski564302
Jay'Shon Thomas133220
Roy Williams3332110
Quinton Urwiler966220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dev'ion Reynolds120003
Donte Harrison242003
Jake Gassaway50002