North Texas at San Diego State - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo (#24)North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State logo
Saturday, December 27th 2025 (5:45 PM EST)
North Texas -7.5 (55.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
North Texas 49 - San Diego State: 47  (Isleta New Mexico Bowl)

 
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Light Rain Predicted
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: North Texas -4  (SP+ UNT -11.5)

Projected Score: UNT: 29 - SDSU: 25 (54)
UNT Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UNT Travel: 1156 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Aztecs (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (31 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 3.6 (#29)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 5, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+14.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.541.5W 6 - 3UY
Fri 10/3 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-6.542.5W 44 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State-3.046.5W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.042.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.548.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State-1.541.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-10.050.5W 25 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 San Diego State at New Mexico-1.541.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 San Diego State vs North Texas+7.555.5L 47 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#3 (.36)51% (4)45.153% (3)3.58 (2)16851% (8)2994.98 (3)#78 (.18)44% (93)26.548% (125)37% (29)3.93 (97)39.11.21.8
SDSU#94 (.13)42% (72)26.446% (40)3.38 (9)17436% (121)1423.42 (94)#4 (-.01)35% (9)15.438% (19)33% (4)2.42 (4)500.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1445.143.751.2%4.981.2244671682995.147%51%53%51%12%.36
SDSU Defense1315.46.834.8%2.421.2 - - - - - 48%50%38%33%15%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1426.528.343.6%3.931.8 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
SDSU Offense1326.431.241.9%3.420.9163151741424.661%37%46%36%13%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1426:0323.546%69%4.939.11.21.851.6033.6
San Diego State1328:101632%50%5.5500.91.24.62.5431.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1447% (87)53% (3)33.1167.95.145 (1).33 (4)3.58 (2)73% (67)7% (12)1.11 (13)
SDSU Defense1348% (44)38% (19) - - - - .05 (45)3.03 (98)62% (12)8% (113)0.98 (78)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (110)3.23 (120)78% (114)9% (78)0.98 (82)
SDSU Offense1361% (9)46% (40)38.2173.84.620 (70).16 (44)3.38 (9)81% (14)7% (23)0.87 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1451% (47)51% (8)21.330.6299.49.814.132 (8)7 (20).43 (17)1.6 (63)26% (12)39% (8).44 (21)5% (25)2 (73)
SDSU Defense1350% (90)33% (4) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.04 (2)1.4 (16)35% (17)23% (7).06 (3)7% (24)1.8 (13)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (29) - - - - - - 13 (31).21 (56)1.7 (113)29% (116)29% (62).27 (62)4% (127)1.9 (30)
SDSU Offense1337% (128)36% (121)11.419.5142.17.312.59 (106)8 (7).09 (127)1.7 (19)30% (44)20% (136).04 (133)6% (50)1.8 (121)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 1.20  #65
North Texas's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
North Texas's Defense Rating: 15.78  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #67

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 1.20   San Diego State: 5.395

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 17.5   San Diego State: 6.2




San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 5.395  #54
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 2.04  #114
San Diego State's Defense Rating: -2.55  #24
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #50
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #100
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #15

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 29
San Diego State 25


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 28
San Diego State 23

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 28
San Diego State 28

Total Points: 56
San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.8

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/27San Diego State47North Texas49North Texas -7.5San Diego State55.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San Diego State011 Overs
North Texas100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

North Texas Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Mexico Bowl North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47
2024Responder Bowl North Texas vs Texas State+15.567.5L 28 - 30
2022Frisco Bowl North Texas vs Boise State+12.063.0L 32 - 35
2021Frisco Football Classic North Texas vs Miami (OH)+2.056.5L 14 - 27
2020Beach Bowl North Texas vs App State+21.567.5L 28 - 56
San Diego State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Mexico Bowl San Diego State vs North Texas+7.555.5L 47 - 49
2022I Bowl San Diego State vs Middle Tennessee-7.047.0L 23 - 25
2021Frisco Bowl San Diego State vs UTSA-3.048.0W 38 - 24
2019Mexico Bowl San Diego State vs Central Michigan-4.040.0W 48 - 11
  
(#65) UNT at (#54) SDSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTSDSU
Power RatePwr #65 #54
SP+SP+ #15 #50
Perf GradeGrade #8 #12
OffenseOff #3 #63
DefenseDef #27 #8
Spec TeamsST #54 #43
TalentTal #91 #95
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
San Diego State Notes
(11/28) Great season goes thud w/ meltdown in 20T vs N Mex
(10/28) New DC Aurich leading #2 Def in all CFB. 10.4 ppg
(10/22) Top 3 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/4) Killed CSU, most total yards since '20. 250+ Pass/Run
(9/28) Def great, 3 points in last 2 games. Red Zone D tops
(9/23) CB Chris Johnson a lockdown, #2 Phillips good too
(9/21) Beat the brakes off Cal. Forced 3 TOs, Great win
(9/21) Defense is good, Offense is really bad. QBs bad
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
San Diego State Injury Report
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffSDSU Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #8
SuccessSuc #4 #9
ExplosiveExp #30 #30
PPAPPA #3 #4
PowerPwr #28 #24
SP+SP+ #1 #15
Pts POPPO #3 #4
HavocHav #9 #75
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #5 #17
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #19
Run ExplRExp #13 #78
PPAExp #4 #45
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #98
Stuff RateStuff #9 #108
TackleTak -  #16
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #2 #8
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #4
Pass ExplPExl #63 #16
PPAExp #17 #2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #19 #35
F7 HavocF7 #12 #113
DB HavocDB #25 #24
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCatSDSU OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #63 #27
SuccessSuc #72 #93
ExplosiveExp #123 #43
PPAPPA #94 #78
PowerPwr #114 #115
SP+SP+ #100 #67
Pts POPPO #94 #97
HavocHav #27 #107
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #34 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #40 #125
Run ExplRExp #110 #82
PPAExp #44 #110
Run BlockR Blk #49 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #120
Stuff RateStuff #13 #127
TackleTak -  #8
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCatSDSU OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #105 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #121 #29
Pass ExplPExl #19 #113
PPAExp #127 #56
Pass Block/RushP Blk #51 #78
F7 HavocF7 #23 #78
DB HavocDB #50 #127
Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 51°
Rematch from Week 1
North Texas 7.5 (55.5)
North Texas won at San Diego State this year (49-47)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2301424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1129260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)14324459%1810987.4
Kyle Crum142948%169125.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington (Tr)9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3227328.572
Byron Cardwell4826715.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Donovan Brown33518215.752
Nathan Acevedo (Tr)16190011.942
Jacob Bostick (Tr)11157314.335

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Rob Aurich (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Chambliss909445
Dalesean Staley701008
Dwayne McDougle (Tr)472003
Trey White47117121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White47117121
Ryan Henderson219741
Niles King2910720
Owen Chambliss909445
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Eric Butler391036