Colorado State at San Diego State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Colorado State logo Colorado State Rams at San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Snapdragon Stadium - San Diego, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Rams (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (16 - 20)
Avg Score : 21 - 28 (21 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: San Diego State -4.5   (SP+ SDSU -3)
Projected Score: CSU: 25 - SDSU: 29 (54)
SDSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
CSU Travel: 855 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aztecs (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (42 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.559.5
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-3
Sat 10/4 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.5
Sat 10/11 Colorado State vs Fresno State-1.5
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-4
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+3.5
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico-5
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+14.5
Sat 11/29 Colorado State vs Air Force-8

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+12.548.5
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois+1
Sat 10/4 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.5
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State+2
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-2.5
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-1
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State+7.5
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-6
Sat 11/29 San Diego State at New Mexico-7

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#87 (.15)47% (47)2157% (15)3.14 (51)15836% (110)1614.2 (57)#70 (.14)43% (94)27.543% (88)44% (97)3.93 (86)5731.5
SDSU#90 (.14)40% (95)27.549% (44)3.25 (43)15531% (126)1854.36 (49)#28 ()33% (21)1838% (66)28% (14)3.78 (77)51.500
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Offense2212146.6%4.23223181581614.353%45%57%36%18%.15
SDSU Defense2181832.8%3.780 - - - - - 46%54%38%28%11%
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Defense227.53843.1%3.931.5 - - - - - 60%40%43%44%16%.14
SDSU Offense227.54240.4%4.360173341551853.754%45%49%31%13%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Colorado State226:562235%50%7.55731.55.51.5029.8
San Diego State231:091734%50%6.551.50041.5031.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Offense253% (51)57% (15)36.5157.54.35 (62).12 (78)3.14 (51)75% (52)12% (111)0.73 (122)
SDSU Defense246% (39)38% (66) - - - - .01 (51)2.89 (79)62% (39)6% (121)0.81 (38)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Defense260% (124)43% (88) - - - - .05 (65)2.45 (40)73% (77)10% (78)0.98 (77)
SDSU Offense254% (47)49% (44)421553.75 (62).18 (54)3.25 (43)80% (36)6% (27)0.79 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Offense245% (89)36% (110)15.529.5160.55.410.41 (123)2 (60).27 (73)1.7 (31)33% (94)28% (94).36 (60)7% (111)2.6 (7)
SDSU Defense254% (100)28% (14) - - - - - - 0-.01 (20)1.2 (12)34% (61)11% (4)-.1 (9)5% (91)1.7 (35)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Defense240% (13)44% (97) - - - - - - 1 (87).26 (87)1.6 (92)29% (106)28% (58).17 (46)7% (53)2.4 (123)
SDSU Offense245% (90)31% (126)15.529.5184.56.311.92 (102)0 (1).12 (111)2 (9)32% (92)30% (85).25 (88)6% (96)2.1 (51)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -2.18 #84
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 9.58 #83
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 11.77 #88
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #113
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -2.18   San Diego State: -2.86

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -12.3   San Diego State: -8.9




San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -2.86 #83
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 4.98 #104
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 6.79 #67
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.9 #95
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #121
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 21 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 29
Colorado State 25


Total Points: 54

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 42
Defense: 18 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/11Colorado State22San Diego State19Colorado StateColorado State -3.5San Diego State46.5Under
202012/05San Diego State29Colorado State17San Diego StateSan Diego State -7.5San Diego State45.0Over
201910/05Colorado State10San Diego State24San Diego StateSan Diego State -7.5San Diego State49.0Under
201611/26San Diego State31Colorado State63Colorado StateSan Diego State -12.5Colorado State53.5Over
201510/31Colorado State17San Diego State41San Diego StateSan Diego State -2San Diego State52.0Over
201210/13San Diego State38Colorado State14San Diego State
201111/12Colorado State15San Diego State18San Diego State
201011/06San Diego State24Colorado State19San Diego State
200910/24Colorado State28San Diego State42San Diego State
200810/25San Diego State34Colorado State38Colorado State
200710/06Colorado State20San Diego State24San Diego State
200612/02San Diego State17Colorado State6San Diego State
200511/12Colorado State10San Diego State30San Diego State
200410/16San Diego State17Colorado State21Colorado State
200311/15Colorado State21San Diego State6Colorado State
200109/22Colorado State7San Diego State14San Diego State
200010/27San Diego State22Colorado State34Colorado State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San Diego State1143 Overs
Colorado State612 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 111 - 41 - 20 - 2
Road Teams11 - 64 - 12 - 02 - 1

(#84) Colorado State Info
Power Rating: -2.18 #84
Offense Rating: 9.58 #83
Defense Rating: 11.77 #88
Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #113
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #113
Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 47%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.2 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Poor Pass Success 36%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.93 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Colorado State has lost 2 straight
Colorado State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Colorado State Notes
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
(8/1) RB Marshall OK LY, passed by L Avant in spring
(8/1) WR returns #2, 3 portal adds, TE big ?
(8/1) Def bad LY, replacing a ton. 10 portal adds
(8/1) New DC Summers (WKU), Takeaway king
(8/1) Direction of Offense a big ? under OC Mumme
(8/1) Too many ?s for me, lack identity w/o big WR
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, decent LY. No portal adds

Colorado State Highlights
Colorado State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#28)

Colorado State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#20)

Colorado State Deficiencies
Colorado State has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Colorado State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
Colorado State Can Not Run the Ball (#120)
Colorado State offense is not Explosive (#116)
Colorado State pass game is really bad (#110)
Colorado State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Colorado State does not Sack the QB (#112)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatSDSUCSU
OverallOver#39#101
OffenseOff#61#63
DefenseDef#26#107
Special TeamsST#62#110
PassingPass#60#106
RushingRush#52#30
Run BlockRBLK#46#10
Pass BlockPBLK#90#42
Route RunningWR Rt#56#97
TacklingTkl#40#16
Run DefenseR Def#27#107
Pass Rush DefPRush#42#101
Coverage DefCov#40#97

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat San Diego State in 2023 (22-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: CSU | SDSU
Depth Chart: CSU | SDSU
Rosters: CSU | SDSU
(#83) San Diego State Info
Power Rating: -2.86 #83
Offense Rating: 4.98 #104
Defense Rating: 6.79 #67
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.9 #95
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #121
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.36 PPO
Good Run Success 49%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 33%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Great Pass Def Success 28%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

San Diego State has lost 3 straight
San Diego State has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

San Diego State Notes
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
(7/12) WR Kitt-Denton (FCS) avg'd 18.1 ypc at NW St
(5/23) New DC Aurich (DC @ Idaho) an improvement
(5/23) Portals look decent, losses mostly went down
(5/2) RB light, Washington (CCU) decent add.
(5/2) WR Napier back, v good. Some depth
(3/29) QB Dengal (Mich) vs Emanuel Jr (CMU)

San Diego State Highlights
San Diego State is Undefeated at Home
San Diego State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

San Diego State has a really good defense (#21)
San Diego State defense does not give up big plays (#10)
San Diego State has a good pass defense (#14)
San Diego State has a great TO Margin (#1)
San Diego State commits very few Penalties (#30)
San Diego State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

San Diego State Deficiencies
San Diego State Can Not Run the Ball (#121)
San Diego State pass game is really bad (#126)
San Diego State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
San Diego State does not Sack the QB (#112)


  
Colorado State's OC Matt Mumme
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi305753%312125.5
Tay Lanier11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree2815015.420
Lloyd Avant (Tr)158025.320
Justin Marshall83704.67
Javion Kinnard222011.021
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaxxon Warren795113.627
Armani Winfield449012.317
Tommy Maher53807.615
Lavon Brown336012.016

View Colorado State's Full Roster
Colorado State's DC Tyson Summers
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long241000
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)122001
Lemondre Joe (Tr)112213
Robert Edmonson101100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)112213
Robert Edmonson101100
Gabe Jones (Tr)31100
Owen Long241000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)112213
Jahari Rogers (Tr)60002
Drew Rodriguez10001

San Diego State's OC Sean Lewis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)285551%340206.2
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3475%29007.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton3818824.920
Christian Washington (Tr)104914.927
Byron Cardwell72804.014
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)62604.310
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob Bostick (Tr)6101216.835
Jordan Napier108708.723
Mikey Welsh144044.044
Donovan Brown54308.644

View San Diego State's Full Roster
San Diego State's DC Rob Aurich
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tano Letuli190020
Owen Chambliss152111
Chris Johnson90022
Bryce Phillips80000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
August Salvati (Tr)32200
Owen Chambliss152111
Jared Badie11110
Tano Letuli190020
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley61003
Chris Johnson90022
Owen Chambliss152111