Colorado State at San Diego State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Colorado State logo Colorado State Rams at San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State logo
Friday, October 3rd 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
San Diego State -4.5 (40.5) (-192)  Open: -5.5
San Diego State 45 - Colorado State: 24  (Mountain West)

 
Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Tyson Summers (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
Our Line: San Diego State -21  (SP+ SDSU -22)
Projected Score: CSU: 11 - SDSU: 32 (42)
SDSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
CSU Travel: 855 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aztecs (9 - 3) (9 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 25 - 13 (31 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#24)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.558.5L 16 - 17UY
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-4.548.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 10/3 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.540.5L 24 - 45ON
Fri 10/10 Colorado State vs Fresno State+5.547.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-2.553.5L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+5.546.5L 0 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+5.560.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico+15.553.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+17.546.5L 21 - 49ON
Fri 11/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+2.547.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 7, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+14.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.541.5W 6 - 3UY
Fri 10/3 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-6.542.5W 44 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State-3.046.5W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.042.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.548.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State-1.541.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-10.050.5W 25 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 San Diego State at New Mexico-1.541.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 San Diego State vs North Texas+3.056.0

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#94 (.13)40% (97)18.544% (66)2.97 (64)10838% (110)2163.52 (89)#113 (.24)45% (118)30.846% (108)46% (116)4.03 (101)56.31.71.3
SDSU#100 (.12)42% (77)24.746% (48)3.37 (11)18836% (119)1543.41 (97)#3 (-.04)33% (5)12.636% (9)31% (4)2.06 (2)54.211.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Offense1218.516.640.3%3.521.7183241082163.645%54%44%38%19%.13
SDSU Defense1212.66.833.3%2.061.3 - - - - - 47%51%36%31%16%-.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Defense1230.83645.3%4.031.3 - - - - - 57%42%46%46%13%.24
SDSU Offense1224.731.241.9%3.411173411881544.662%37%46%36%13%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Colorado State1226:5018.333%47%5.856.31.71.33.81.3126
San Diego State1230:3117.332%50%654.211.352.7431.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Offense1245% (107)44% (66)30.3108.33.613 (70).09 (77)2.97 (64)59% (131)12% (122)0.9 (91)
SDSU Defense1247% (41)36% (9) - - - - -.01 (17)2.92 (73)62% (14)9% (94)0.88 (25)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Defense1257% (131)46% (108) - - - - .17 (104)3.26 (123)77% (108)7% (128)0.94 (61)
SDSU Offense1262% (9)46% (48)41.4188.34.620 (70).14 (53)3.37 (11)81% (12)8% (27)0.84 (118)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Offense1254% (29)38% (110)20.332.8215.96.610.715 (103)12 (7).2 (96)1.5 (90)35% (128)28% (88).25 (91)7% (111)2 (86)
SDSU Defense1251% (93)31% (4) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.05 (2)1.5 (29)37% (10)22% (3).06 (2)7% (26)1.8 (16)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Defense1242% (7)46% (116) - - - - - - 8 (31).38 (119)1.7 (123)27% (129)35% (125).34 (92)6% (60)1.9 (30)
SDSU Offense1237% (128)36% (119)12.321.2153.97.312.59 (106)8 (7).08 (127)1.7 (14)30% (50)20% (136).06 (132)5% (45)1.9 (95)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -11.08  #113
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 5.98  #85
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 17.06  #118
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6  #125
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #121
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #106

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -11.08   San Diego State: 7.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -15.6   San Diego State: 6.2




San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 7.895  #54
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 2.04  #114
San Diego State's Defense Rating: -2.55  #24
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #50
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #100
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #15

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 32
Colorado State 11


Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
San Diego State 31
Colorado State 12

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
San Diego State 31
Colorado State 14

Total Points: 45
San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 24.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 12.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.8

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/03San Diego State45Colorado State24San Diego State -4.5San Diego State40.5Over
202311/11Colorado State22San Diego State19Colorado State -3.5San Diego State46.5Under
202012/05San Diego State29Colorado State17San Diego State -7.5San Diego State45.0Over
201910/05Colorado State10San Diego State24San Diego State -7.5San Diego State49.0Under
201611/26San Diego State31Colorado State63San Diego State -12.5Colorado State53.5Over
201510/31Colorado State17San Diego State41San Diego State -2San Diego State52.0Over
201210/13San Diego State38Colorado State14
201111/12Colorado State15San Diego State18
201011/06San Diego State24Colorado State19
200910/24Colorado State28San Diego State42
200810/25San Diego State34Colorado State38
200710/06Colorado State20San Diego State24
200612/02San Diego State17Colorado State6
200511/12Colorado State10San Diego State30
200410/16San Diego State17Colorado State21
200311/15Colorado State21San Diego State6
200109/22Colorado State7San Diego State14
200010/27San Diego State22Colorado State34
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San Diego State1254 Overs
Colorado State612 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 112 - 42 - 20 - 2
Road Teams11 - 74 - 22 - 02 - 2

(#113) CSU at (#54) SDSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCSUSDSU
Power RatePwr #113 #54
SP+SP+ #125 #50
Perf GradeGrade #135 #12
OffenseOff #124 #63
DefenseDef #136 #8
Spec TeamsST #130 #43
TalentTal #87 #95
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
Colorado State Notes
(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report
San Diego State Notes
(11/28) Great season goes thud w/ meltdown in 20T vs N Mex
(10/28) New DC Aurich leading #2 Def in all CFB. 10.4 ppg
(10/22) Top 3 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/4) Killed CSU, most total yards since '20. 250+ Pass/Run
(9/28) Def great, 3 points in last 2 games. Red Zone D tops
(9/23) CB Chris Johnson a lockdown, #2 Phillips good too
(9/21) Beat the brakes off Cal. Forced 3 TOs, Great win
(9/21) Defense is good, Offense is really bad. QBs bad
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
San Diego State Injury Report
Colorado State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffSDSU Def
Perf GradePerf #124 #8
SuccessSuc #97 #5
ExplosiveExp #98 #11
PPAPPA #94 #3
PowerPwr #85 #24
SP+SP+ #121 #15
Pts POPPO #89 #2
HavocHav #125 #64
Colorado State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #89 #17
Run SuccessRSuc #66 #9
Run ExplRExp #91 #25
PPAExp #77 #17
Run BlockR Blk #78 -
OL YdsOLY #64 #73
Stuff RateStuff #76 #86
TackleTak -  #16
Colorado State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #124 #8
Pass SuccessPSuc #110 #4
Pass ExplPExl #90 #29
PPAExp #96 #2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #118 #35
F7 HavocF7 #122 #94
DB HavocDB #111 #26
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCatSDSU OffCSU Def
Perf GradePerf #63 #136
SuccessSuc #77 #118
ExplosiveExp #125 #78
PPAPPA #100 #113
PowerPwr #114 #118
SP+SP+ #100 #106
Pts POPPO #97 #101
HavocHav #24 #114
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #34 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #48 #108
Run ExplRExp #118 #61
PPAExp #53 #104
Run BlockR Blk #49 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #123
Stuff RateStuff #13 #121
TackleTak -  #66
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCatSDSU OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #105 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #119 #116
Pass ExplPExl #14 #123
PPAExp #127 #119
Pass Block/RushP Blk #51 #135
F7 HavocF7 #27 #128
DB HavocDB #45 #60
Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
San Diego State -4.5 (40.5)
San Diego State won vs Colorado State this year (45-24)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat San Diego State in 2023 (22-19)

  
CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Brousseau12820164%1354936.7
Darius Curry7010765%740576.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree10250825.031
Lloyd Avant (Tr)9041754.623
Justin Marshall4926015.373
Javion Kinnard125604.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)31388712.548
Tommy Maher32358011.235
Tay Lanier3531529.039
Armani Winfield22276212.549

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long1485205
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)725111
Jace Bellah581020
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Owen Long1485205
Jeremy Naborne354220
Paul Tangelo (Tr)193241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Jahari Rogers (Tr)314118
Owen Long1485205

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)14324459%1810987.4
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)5956%37004.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2381232105.250
Christian Washington (Tr)8748335.641
Byron Cardwell4726115.622
Jayden Denegal (Tr)6710341.529
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Donovan Brown30475215.852
Jacob Bostick (Tr)11157314.335
Mikey Welsh12129010.844

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Rob Aurich (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Chambliss869445
Dalesean Staley571007
Chris Johnson473127
Trey White43117111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White43117111
Ryan Henderson209741
Niles King2610720
Owen Chambliss869445
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley571007
Chris Johnson473127
Eric Butler371035