Wyoming at Air Force - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 18th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -4 (56.5) (-180) Open: -6.0
Air Force 24 - Wyoming: 21 (Mountain West)

Cowboys (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jay Sawvel (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 16 - 21 (11 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)

AFA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -3 (SP+ AFA -7)
Projected Score: WYO: 27 - AFA: 30 (57)
AFA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
WYO Travel: 164 miles

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
WYO Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Wyoming's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Wyoming at Akron	-8.5	49.5	W 10 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Wyoming vs Northern Iowa	-14.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Wyoming vs Utah	+24.5	47.5	L 6 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/20	Wyoming at Colorado	+12.5	45.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Wyoming vs UNLV	+4.5	50.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/11	Wyoming vs San José State	+1.5	50.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Wyoming at Air Force	+4.0	56.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Wyoming vs Colorado State	-5.5	46.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Wyoming at San Diego State	+10.0	42.5	L 7 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Wyoming at Fresno State	+3.0	40.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/22	Wyoming vs Nevada	-6.0	39.5	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/29	Wyoming at Hawai'i	+8.5	45.0	L 7 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wyoming's Schedule

Air Force's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Air Force vs Bucknell	-31.0	54.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Air Force at Utah State	-4.0	51.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	Air Force vs Boise State	+10.5	51.5	L 37 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/27	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-7.0	52.5	L 35 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/4	Air Force at Navy	+13.5	50.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Air Force at UNLV	+7.0	65.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Air Force vs Wyoming	-4.0	56.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Air Force vs Army	+1.5	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/8	Air Force at San José State	+6.0	67.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Air Force at UConn	+7.5	64.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/22	Air Force vs New Mexico	+3.5	53.5	L 3 - 20	U	N
Fri 11/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-2.5	47.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WYO	#122 (.05)	38% (116)	16	38% (117)	2.74 (110)	132	39% (101)	183	2.9 (127)	#23 (.07)	38% (23)	20.5	40% (46)	37% (26)	2.77 (12)	56.3	1.5	1.3
AFA	#18 (.29)	47% (23)	29.8	48% (28)	3.27 (19)	262	47% (26)	145	4.6 (18)	#136 (.41)	50% (134)	30.3	46% (110)	54% (136)	4.28 (122)	31.3	1	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WYO	#127 (.05)	36% (126)		39% (111)	2.64 (122)	138	34% (125)	189	3.07 (126)	#102 (.23)	44% (96)		43% (70)	45% (113)	3.97 (86)	49.6	1.3	0.9
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WYO Offense	12	16	11.3	38.1%	2.9	1.5	18	315	132	183	4.1	47%	51%	38%	39%	19%	.05
AFA Defense	12	30.3	27.8	49.8%	4.28	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	46%	54%	11%	.41

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WYO Defense	12	20.5	22.7	38%	2.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	40%	37%	13%	.07
AFA Offense	12	29.8	27.5	47.3%	4.6	1	22	407	262	145	4.8	77%	21%	48%	47%	9%	.29

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Wyoming	12	28:31	17.7	34%	52%	6.6	56.3	1.5	1.3	4.4	1.3	3	25.5
Air Force	12	33:52	22	51%	71%	3.6	31.3	1	0.8	3.3	1.3	0	28.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WYO Offense	12	47% (94)	38% (117)	32.4	131.8	4.1	9 (107)	.02 (118)	2.74 (110)	56% (135)	10% (90)	0.96 (68)
AFA Defense	12	49% (53)	46% (110)	-	-	-	-	.31 (136)	3.3 (127)	76% (103)	6% (135)	1.21 (133)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WYO Defense	12	55% (121)	40% (46)	-	-	-	-	.09 (59)	3 (94)	74% (96)	8% (123)	0.93 (55)
AFA Offense	12	77% (2)	48% (28)	54.4	261.5	4.8	33 (1)	.23 (19)	3.27 (19)	79% (22)	7% (10)	0.96 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WYO Offense	12	51% (50)	39% (101)	17.9	32	183	5.7	10.2	13 (86)	12 (108)	.12 (122)	1.4 (130)	35% (122)	25% (116)	.16 (119)	9% (131)	1.8 (121)
AFA Defense	12	50% (86)	54% (136)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (75)	.51 (135)	1.5 (33)	28% (128)	40% (136)	.73 (136)	4% (127)	2.3 (126)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WYO Defense	12	44% (17)	37% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (75)	.13 (21)	1.6 (93)	34% (26)	27% (30)	.17 (23)	6% (86)	1.9 (44)
AFA Offense	12	21% (135)	47% (26)	8.1	13.7	145.2	10.6	18	13 (75)	7 (34)	.55 (3)	2.1 (2)	24% (5)	33% (42)	.39 (40)	2% (3)	2 (63)

Wyoming's Power Ratings
Wyoming's Power Rating: -2.78 #80
Wyoming's Offense Rating: 1.98 #115
Wyoming's Defense Rating: 4.76 #43
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Wyoming's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Wyoming's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
Wyoming's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3 #131
Wyoming's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #55

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Wyoming: -2.78 Air Force: -3.57

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wyoming: -10.5 Air Force: -3.5

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -3.57 #100
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.77 #59
Air Force's Defense Rating: 19.41 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #86
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #63
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Wyoming Scoring
Offense: 16 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.3
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.7

Wyoming's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 30
Wyoming 27

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 36
Wyoming 33

Total Points: 68

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 25
Wyoming 21

Total Points: 46

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Air Force	24	Wyoming	21	Air Force -4	Wyoming	56.5	Under
2024	09/28	Wyoming	31	Air Force	19	Air Force -4	Wyoming	33.5	Over
2023	10/14	Air Force	34	Wyoming	27	Air Force -12.5	Wyoming	42.0	Over
2022	09/16	Wyoming	17	Air Force	14	Air Force -16.5	Wyoming	47.0	Under
2021	10/09	Air Force	24	Wyoming	14	Air Force -5.5	Air Force	46.5	Under
2019	11/30	Air Force	20	Wyoming	6	Air Force -13.5	Air Force	41.5	Under
2018	11/17	Wyoming	35	Air Force	27	Wyoming -3	Wyoming	42.5	Over
2017	11/11	Air Force	14	Wyoming	28	Air Force -2.5	Wyoming	51.0	Under
2016	10/08	Wyoming	35	Air Force	26	Air Force -13.5	Wyoming	50.0	Over
2015	10/10	Air Force	31	Wyoming	17	Air Force -21.5	Wyoming	57.0	Under
2014	09/06	Wyoming	17	Air Force	13	Wyoming -1	Wyoming	0
2013	09/21	Air Force	23	Wyoming	56	Wyoming -2.5	Wyoming	0
2012	10/13	Wyoming	27	Air Force	28
2011	11/12	Air Force	17	Wyoming	25
2010	09/25	Wyoming	14	Air Force	20
2009	10/17	Air Force	10	Wyoming	0
2008	09/06	Wyoming	3	Air Force	23
2007	10/20	Air Force	20	Wyoming	12
2006	09/23	Wyoming	24	Air Force	31
2005	09/17	Air Force	28	Wyoming	29
2004	10/30	Wyoming	43	Air Force	26
2003	09/20	Air Force	35	Wyoming	29
2002	10/26	Wyoming	34	Air Force	26
2001	10/13	Air Force	24	Wyoming	13
2000	10/13	Wyoming	34	Air Force	51

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	14	2	4 Overs
Wyoming	11	10	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 9	7 - 5	4 - 4	3 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 16	5 - 7	1 - 3	4 - 4

(#80) WYO at (#100) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WYO	AFA
Power RatePwr	#80	#100
SP+SP+	#107	#86
Perf GradeGrade	#117	#54
OffenseOff	#130	#10
DefenseDef	#52	#124
Spec TeamsST	#132	#66
TalentTal	#103	#134
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Wyoming Notes(8/1) OL was awful LY, but 4/5 back. No portals?
(8/1) Def was awful, lost a ton, added 12 portals
(8/1) Back 7 of Def has almost no exp. Pass D awful
(5/2) QB K Anderson likely. JAG- so far, depth??
(5/2) RB Scott back, Kellman (Char) added. Meh
(5/2) WR Sargent electric, Durr back as well. C+
(5/2) HC Sawvel awful 1st year. Doesn't look better TY
(5/2) TE Gyllenborg a nice target w/ 55 career rec
Wyoming Injury Report

Air Force Notes(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report

Wyoming on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
Perf GradePerf	#130	#124
SuccessSuc	#116	#134
ExplosiveExp	#114	#122
PPAPPA	#122	#136
PowerPwr	#115	#130
SP+SP+	#131	#101
Pts POPPO	#127	#122
HavocHav	#125	#133

Wyoming Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#98	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#110
Run ExplRExp	#68	#133
PPAExp	#118	#136
Run BlockR Blk	#58	-
OL YdsOLY	#110	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#133
TackleTak	-	#43

Wyoming Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#136
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#33
PPAExp	#122	#135
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#101	#57
F7 HavocF7	#90	#135
DB HavocDB	#131	#127

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
Perf GradePerf	#10	#52
SuccessSuc	#23	#23
ExplosiveExp	#89	#49
PPAPPA	#18	#23
PowerPwr	#59	#43
SP+SP+	#63	#55
Pts POPPO	#18	#12
HavocHav	#2	#118

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
Run GameRun	#64	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	#28	#46
Run ExplRExp	#69	#55
PPAExp	#19	#59
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#19	#94
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#106
TackleTak	-	#56

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#45
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#26
Pass ExplPExl	#2	#93
PPAExp	#3	#21
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#98	#112
F7 HavocF7	#10	#123
DB HavocDB	#3	#86

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

WYO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Air Force -4.0 (56.5)
Air Force won vs Wyoming this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Wyoming beat Air Force last year (31-19)
Air Force beat Wyoming in 2023 (34-27)
Wyoming beat Air Force in 2022 (17-14)

WYO's OC Jay Johnson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaden Anderson	189	336	56%	1971	12	10	5.9
Mason Drube	20	38	53%	187	0	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Samuel Harris	100	552	1	5.5	50
Sam Scott	89	408	2	4.6	37
Terron Kellman (Tr)	65	331	4	5.1	33
Landon Sims	15	97	1	6.5	37

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Durr Jr.	46	513	4	11.2	49
Jaylen Sargent	20	240	0	12.0	29
Michael Fitzgerald (Tr)	16	228	3	14.3	35
Johnmichael Gyllenborg	24	217	1	9.0	24

View Wyoming's Full Roster

WYO's DC Aaron Bohl (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brayden Johnson (Tr)	74	5	0	1	3
Evan Eller	62	7	2	2	1
Jones Thomas	46	1	0	0	4
Andrew Johnson	43	2	1	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ben Florentine	33	6	4	1	3
Brayden Wilson (Tr)	22	4	2	1	0
Tyce Westland	43	8	2	4	2
Evan Eller	62	7	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Desman Hearns (Tr)	28	3	5
Tyrese Boss	36	0	5
Dainsus Miller	25	3	5

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Liam Szarka	75	120	63%	1294	9	5	10.8
Josh Johnson	16	28	57%	374	4	2	13.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Liam Szarka	190	922	13	4.9	64
Owen Allen	131	749	5	5.7	43
Dylan Carson	91	419	4	4.6	64
Cade Harris	61	321	4	5.3	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	35	584	2	16.7	74
Bruin Fleischmann	21	370	6	17.6	68
Quin Smith	15	358	4	23.9	52
Jonah Dawson	12	260	1	21.7	53

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Fletcher	108	1	0	5	2
Roger Jones Jr.	76	1	0	1	0
Dallas Daley	45	1	0	1	3
Peyton Zdroik	36	6	1	9	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Hubert	30	11	5	7	1
Jackson Adams	17	4	3	3	2
Grady Forsythe	2	2	2	0	0
Jaylin Reese	10	1	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Korey Johnson	34	0	0	4
Dallas Daley	45	1	1	3
Blake Fletcher	108	1	5	2