Air Force at Colorado State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at Colorado State RamsColorado State logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Canvas Stadium - Fort Collins, CO  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
CSU is playing their 4th straight game
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -6   (SP+ AFA -1)
Projected Score: AFA: 21 - CSU: 27 (46)
CSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
AFA Travel: 109 miles
Rams (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (16 - 20)
Avg Score : 24 - 26 (27 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#79)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-0
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+20
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i-1
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+11
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+10.5
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+7
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+10.5
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+11.5
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico-6
Sat 11/29 Air Force at Colorado State+6

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+18.552.5
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-14
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+8
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-3
Sat 10/4 Colorado State at San Diego State-0
Sat 10/11 Colorado State vs Fresno State+0.5
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-4
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+2
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico-4.5
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+21.5
Sat 11/29 Colorado State vs Air Force-6

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)18.945% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)23.341% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)24.443% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)25.842% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1218.919.242.1%4.021.31831422590482%18%45%31%12%.13
CSU Defense1325.819.942.4%41.5 - - - - - 49%51%42%43%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1223.328.841.7%3.971 - - - - - 56%44%41%43%15%.2
CSU Offense1324.426.942.2%3.561.2163541621924.955%45%43%41%15%.16

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:5817.942%64%3281.314.31.5028.6
Colorado State1328:4416.535%64%5.847.31.21.54.21.1227.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1282% (2)45% (60)55.7224.7424 (45).15 (60)3.03 (68)83% (11)9% (55)0.88 (112)
CSU Defense1349% (51)42% (59) - - - - .1 (55)3.01 (70)69% (45)9% (91)1.02 (88)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1256% (120)41% (47) - - - - .1 (56)3.02 (73)66% (28)10% (63)1.07 (101)
CSU Offense1355% (30)43% (80)33.4161.84.919 (73).03 (115)2.88 (96)55% (133)9% (46)0.92 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1218% (133)31% (131)5.211.589.87.817.45 (134)10 (63).09 (124)2.1 (1)27% (14)25% (124).18 (111)3% (2)2.1 (66)
CSU Defense1351% (85)43% (94) - - - - - - 10 (66).22 (59)1.4 (16)30% (105)30% (64).27 (49)8% (22)1.9 (35)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1244% (16)43% (89) - - - - - - 4 (125).33 (107)1.6 (63)31% (79)30% (54).3 (63)5% (120)2 (60)
CSU Offense1345% (102)41% (81)16.226.4191.87.311.815 (98)8 (40).31 (43)1.7 (25)32% (75)34% (37).42 (33)7% (98)2 (92)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -18.74 #117
Air Force's Offense Rating: 5.28 #121
Air Force's Defense Rating: 24.02 #116
2025 Talent Rating: 176.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.3 #94
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #116
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #59

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -18.74   Colorado State: -7.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -7.3   Colorado State: -8.3




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -7.2 #95
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 11.27 #85
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 22.37 #106
2025 Talent Rating: 534.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #97
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #95
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #98

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Colorado State 27
Air Force 21

Projected Total Points: 46
Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 24.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.9
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.9

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Air Force13Colorado State21Colorado StateColorado State -6Colorado State43.5Under
202310/28Colorado State13Air Force30Air ForceAir Force -14.5Air Force47.0Under
202211/19Air Force24Colorado State12Air ForceAir Force -22Colorado State43.0Under
202111/13Colorado State21Air Force35Air ForceAir Force -3Air Force45.0Over
201911/16Colorado State21Air Force38Air ForceAir Force -11Air Force63.5Under
201811/22Air Force27Colorado State19Air ForceAir Force -14.5Colorado State64.0Under
201710/28Colorado State28Air Force45Air ForceColorado State -9.5Air Force68.5Over
201611/12Air Force49Colorado State46Air ForceAir Force -6Colorado State54.0Over
201510/17Colorado State38Air Force23Colorado StateAir Force -3.5Colorado State54.5Over
201411/28Air Force27Colorado State24Air ForceColorado State -5Air Force0
201311/30Colorado State58Air Force13Colorado StateColorado State -14Colorado State0
201209/29Air Force42Colorado State21Air Force
201111/26Colorado State21Air Force45Air Force
201010/09Air Force49Colorado State27Air Force
200910/31Colorado State16Air Force34Air Force
200811/08Air Force38Colorado State17Air Force
200710/13Colorado State21Air Force45Air Force
200610/12Air Force24Colorado State21Air Force
200509/29Colorado State41Air Force23Colorado State
200411/20Air Force47Colorado State17Air Force
200310/16Colorado State30Air Force20Colorado State
200210/31Air Force12Colorado State31Colorado State
200111/08Colorado State28Air Force21Colorado State
200011/10Air Force44Colorado State40Air Force
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State764 Overs
Air Force1755 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 93 - 81 - 42 - 4
Road Teams9 - 158 - 34 - 24 - 1

(#117) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.74 #117
Offense Rating: 5.28 #121
Defense Rating: 24.02 #116
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.3 #94
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #116
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #59
Talent Rating: 176.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Air Force Notes
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
(5/6) Started 0-7, finished 4-0 in 2024
(5/5) RB Carson/Allen back, FB Frew back. Avg
(5/5) WR top 2 back in Harris/Smith. Decent
(5/5) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Bad LY, jump?
(5/5) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. DL small
(5/5) Expect Calhoun to bounce back after down '24
Air Force     Ratings Matchup     Colorado State
Power #117
#95
Off #121
#85
Def #116
#106
Talent #134
#100
SP+ #94
#97
SP+ Off #116
#95
SP+ Def #59
#98

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Air Force last year (21-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2023 (30-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2022 (24-12)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | CSU
Depth Chart: AFA | CSU
Rosters: AFA | CSU
(#95) Colorado State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.2 #95
Offense Rating: 11.27 #85
Defense Rating: 22.37 #106
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #97
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #98
Talent Rating: 534.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.56 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Colorado State Notes
(4/29) WR rebuild, so far not much here. TE decent
(3/24) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG+. Depth inexp'd
(3/24) RB Marshall good #2 LY. Depth looks v light
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, decent LY. No portal adds
(3/24) Def bad LY, replacing a ton. 8 portal adds
(3/24) New DC Summers from WKU (DC), HC exp


  
Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Johnson61443%126139.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Christopher Frew4526015.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843
James Roberson596119.245

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher375221
Daniel Grobe305113
Luke Fisher221000
Aidan Swartz223111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peyton Zdroik187330
Blake Fletcher375221
Aidan Swartz223111
Daniel Grobe305113
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Grobe305113
Kyle Chen212002
Blake Fletcher375221

Colorado State's OC Matt Mumme
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi22737461%27551487.4
Jackson Brousseau3650%15012.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Justin Marshall15676744.942
Lloyd Avant (Tr)7625913.416
Keegan Holles159716.518
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi438041.923
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Armani Winfield3834129.062
Petey Tucker (Tr)30324010.829
Jordan Ross15218114.536
Tommy Maher499124.853

View Colorado State's Full Roster
Colorado State's DC Tyson Summers
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long441002
Jacob Ellis (Tr)415120
Ayden Hector405206
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji356351
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji356351
Ayden Hector405206
Kennedy McDowell82220
Jacob Ellis (Tr)415120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Hector405206
Dylan Phelps240004
Jahari Rogers (Tr)30003