Air Force at Colorado State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at Colorado State RamsColorado State logo
Friday, November 28th 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
Air Force -2.5 (47.5) (-135)  Open: -2.5 | 50.5
Air Force 42 - Colorado State: 21  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
CSU is playing their 4th straight game
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -5  (SP+ AFA -12)

Projected Score: AFA: 27 - CSU: 22 (48)
AFA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 109 miles
Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Tyson Summers (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-31.054.5W 49 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-4.051.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+10.551.5L 37 - 49ON
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i-7.052.5L 35 - 44ON
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+13.550.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+7.065.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming-4.056.5W 24 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+1.548.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+6.067.5W 26 - 16UY
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+7.564.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico+3.553.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 11/28 Air Force at Colorado State-2.547.5W 42 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 6, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 6, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 5, Poor: 1

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.558.5L 16 - 17UY
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-4.548.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 10/3 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.540.5L 24 - 45ON
Fri 10/10 Colorado State vs Fresno State+5.547.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-2.553.5L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+5.546.5L 0 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+5.560.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico+15.553.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+17.546.5L 21 - 49ON
Fri 11/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+2.547.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 7, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 7, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 6, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#18 (.29)47% (20)29.848% (24)3.27 (18)26247% (21)1454.6 (13)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (123)31.310.8
CSU#96 (.13)40% (98)18.544% (65)2.97 (63)10838% (111)2163.52 (86)#116 (.24)45% (118)30.846% (107)46% (117)4.03 (103)56.31.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1229.832.247.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29
CSU Defense1230.827.145.3%4.031.3 - - - - - 57%42%46%46%13%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1230.332.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
CSU Offense1218.519.940.3%3.521.7183241082163.645%54%44%38%19%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
Colorado State1226:5018.333%47%5.856.31.71.33.81.3126
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (24)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (18)79% (22)7% (9)0.96 (69)
CSU Defense1257% (131)46% (107) - - - - .17 (105)3.26 (123)77% (108)7% (129)0.94 (60)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1249% (53)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
CSU Offense1245% (107)44% (65)30.3108.33.613 (70).09 (79)2.97 (63)59% (132)12% (122)0.9 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (21)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (3)2.1 (2)24% (4)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (63)
CSU Defense1242% (7)46% (117) - - - - - - 8 (31).38 (119)1.7 (123)27% (129)35% (126).34 (95)6% (59)1.9 (32)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1250% (85)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (127)2.3 (128)
CSU Offense1254% (28)38% (111)20.332.8215.96.610.715 (103)12 (7).2 (96)1.5 (91)35% (127)28% (87).25 (91)7% (110)2 (85)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -8.56  #101
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.77  #59
Air Force's Defense Rating: 19.33  #129
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00  #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5  #86
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #63
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -8.56   Colorado State: -10.84

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.5   Colorado State: -15.6




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -10.84  #113
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 5.98  #85
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 17.06  #118
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6  #125
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #121
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #106

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 27
Colorado State 22


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 28
Colorado State 16

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 30
Colorado State 25

Total Points: 55
Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/28Colorado State21Air Force42Air Force -2.5Air Force47.5Over
202410/19Air Force13Colorado State21Colorado State -6Colorado State43.5Under
202310/28Colorado State13Air Force30Air Force -14.5Air Force47.0Under
202211/19Air Force24Colorado State12Air Force -22Colorado State43.0Under
202111/13Colorado State21Air Force35Air Force -3Air Force45.0Over
201911/16Colorado State21Air Force38Air Force -11Air Force63.5Under
201811/22Air Force27Colorado State19Air Force -14.5Colorado State64.0Under
201710/28Colorado State28Air Force45Colorado State -9.5Air Force68.5Over
201611/12Air Force49Colorado State46Air Force -6Colorado State54.0Over
201510/17Colorado State38Air Force23Air Force -3.5Colorado State54.5Over
201411/28Air Force27Colorado State24Colorado State -5Air Force0
201311/30Colorado State58Air Force13Colorado State -14Colorado State0
201209/29Air Force42Colorado State21
201111/26Colorado State21Air Force45
201010/09Air Force49Colorado State27
200910/31Colorado State16Air Force34
200811/08Air Force38Colorado State17
200710/13Colorado State21Air Force45
200610/12Air Force24Colorado State21
200509/29Colorado State41Air Force23
200411/20Air Force47Colorado State17
200310/16Colorado State30Air Force20
200210/31Air Force12Colorado State31
200111/08Colorado State28Air Force21
200011/10Air Force44Colorado State40
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State765 Overs
Air Force1865 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 103 - 91 - 42 - 5
Road Teams10 - 159 - 35 - 24 - 1

(#101) AFA at (#113) CSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFACSU
Power RatePwr #101 #113
SP+SP+ #86 #125
Perf GradeGrade #54 #135
OffenseOff #10 #124
DefenseDef #124 #136
Spec TeamsST #66 #130
TalentTal #134 #87
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Air Force Notes
(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report
Colorado State Notes
(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffCSU Def
Perf GradePerf #10 #136
SuccessSuc #20 #118
ExplosiveExp #89 #78
PPAPPA #18 #116
PowerPwr #59 #118
SP+SP+ #63 #106
Pts POPPO #13 #103
HavocHav #2 #116
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #64 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #107
Run ExplRExp #69 #60
PPAExp #18 #105
Run BlockR Blk #6 -
OL YdsOLY #18 #123
Stuff RateStuff #2 #122
TackleTak -  #66
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #43 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #117
Pass ExplPExl #2 #123
PPAExp #3 #119
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #98 #135
F7 HavocF7 #9 #129
DB HavocDB #3 #59
Colorado State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatCSU OffAFA Def
Perf GradePerf #124 #124
SuccessSuc #98 #134
ExplosiveExp #98 #123
PPAPPA #96 #136
PowerPwr #85 #129
SP+SP+ #121 #101
Pts POPPO #86 #123
HavocHav #125 #133
Colorado State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #89 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #65 #110
Run ExplRExp #94 #133
PPAExp #79 #136
Run BlockR Blk #78 -
OL YdsOLY #63 #127
Stuff RateStuff #76 #133
TackleTak -  #43
Colorado State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatCSU OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #124 #134
Pass SuccessPSuc #111 #136
Pass ExplPExl #91 #31
PPAExp #96 #135
Pass Block/RushP Blk #118 #57
F7 HavocF7 #122 #135
DB HavocDB #110 #127
Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 50°
Rematch from Week 14
Air Force 2.5 (47.5)
Air Force won at Colorado State this year (42-21)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Air Force last year (21-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2023 (30-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2022 (24-12)

  
AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Dylan Carson9141944.664
Cade Harris6132145.349
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris35584216.774
Bruin Fleischmann21370617.668
Quin Smith15358423.952
Jonah Dawson12260121.753

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Peyton Zdroik366191
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Jackson Adams174332
Grady Forsythe22200
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Brousseau12820164%1354936.7
Darius Curry7010765%740576.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree10250825.031
Lloyd Avant (Tr)9041754.623
Justin Marshall4926015.373
Javion Kinnard125604.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)31388712.548
Tommy Maher32358011.235
Tay Lanier3531529.039
Armani Winfield22276212.549

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long1485205
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)725111
Jace Bellah581020
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Owen Long1485205
Jeremy Naborne354220
Paul Tangelo (Tr)193241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Jahari Rogers (Tr)314118
Owen Long1485205