Air Force at Colorado State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo   Air Force Falcons at Colorado State Rams  Colorado State logo
Friday, November 28th 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
Air Force -2.5 (47.5) (-135)  Open: -2.5 | 50.5
Air Force 42 - Colorado State: 21  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
CSU is playing their 4th straight game
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -5.5  (SP+ AFA -12.5)

Projected Score: AFA: 28 - CSU: 23 (51)
AFA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 109 miles
Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (16 - 20)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-31.054.5W 49 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-4.051.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+10.551.5L 37 - 49ON
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i-7.052.5L 35 - 44ON
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+13.550.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+7.065.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming-4.056.5W 24 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+1.548.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+6.067.5W 26 - 16UY
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+7.564.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico+3.553.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 11/28 Air Force at Colorado State-2.547.5W 42 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 6, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 6, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 5, Poor: 1

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.558.5L 16 - 17UY
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-4.548.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 10/3 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.540.5L 24 - 45ON
Fri 10/10 Colorado State vs Fresno State+5.547.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-2.553.5L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+5.546.5L 0 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+5.560.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico+15.553.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+17.546.5L 21 - 49ON
Fri 11/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+2.547.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 7, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 7, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 6, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)29.845% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)30.341% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)18.543% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)30.842% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1229.832.242.1%4.021.31831422590482%18%45%31%12%.13
CSU Defense1330.827.142.4%41.5 - - - - - 49%51%42%43%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1230.332.841.7%3.971 - - - - - 56%44%41%43%15%.2
CSU Offense1318.519.942.2%3.561.2163541621924.955%45%43%41%15%.16

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:5817.942%64%3281.314.31.5028.6
Colorado State1328:4416.535%64%5.847.31.21.54.21.1227.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1282% (2)45% (60)55.7224.7424 (45).15 (60)3.03 (68)83% (11)9% (55)0.88 (112)
CSU Defense1349% (51)42% (59) - - - - .1 (55)3.01 (70)69% (45)9% (91)1.02 (88)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1256% (120)41% (47) - - - - .1 (56)3.02 (73)66% (28)10% (63)1.07 (101)
CSU Offense1355% (30)43% (80)33.4161.84.919 (73).03 (115)2.88 (96)55% (133)9% (46)0.92 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1218% (133)31% (131)5.211.589.87.817.45 (134)10 (63).09 (124)2.1 (1)27% (14)25% (124).18 (111)3% (2)2.1 (66)
CSU Defense1351% (85)43% (94) - - - - - - 10 (66).22 (59)1.4 (16)30% (105)30% (64).27 (49)8% (22)1.9 (35)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1244% (16)43% (89) - - - - - - 4 (125).33 (107)1.6 (63)31% (79)30% (54).3 (63)5% (120)2 (60)
CSU Offense1345% (102)41% (81)16.226.4191.87.311.815 (98)8 (40).31 (43)1.7 (25)32% (75)34% (37).42 (33)7% (98)2 (92)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -7.54  #90
Air Force's Offense Rating: 12.58  #72
Air Force's Defense Rating: 20.12  #110
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00  #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -7.54   Colorado State: -10.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.2   Colorado State: -15.6




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -10.895  #106
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 11.48  #77
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 22.67  #126
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6  #124
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #120
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #105

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 28
Colorado State 23


Projected Total Points: 51
Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/28Colorado State21Air Force42Air Force -2.5Air Force47.5Over
202410/19Air Force13Colorado State21Colorado State -6Colorado State43.5Under
202310/28Colorado State13Air Force30Air Force -14.5Air Force47.0Under
202211/19Air Force24Colorado State12Air Force -22Colorado State43.0Under
202111/13Colorado State21Air Force35Air Force -3Air Force45.0Over
201911/16Colorado State21Air Force38Air Force -11Air Force63.5Under
201811/22Air Force27Colorado State19Air Force -14.5Colorado State64.0Under
201710/28Colorado State28Air Force45Colorado State -9.5Air Force68.5Over
201611/12Air Force49Colorado State46Air Force -6Colorado State54.0Over
201510/17Colorado State38Air Force23Air Force -3.5Colorado State54.5Over
201411/28Air Force27Colorado State24Colorado State -5Air Force0
201311/30Colorado State58Air Force13Colorado State -14Colorado State0
201209/29Air Force42Colorado State21
201111/26Colorado State21Air Force45
201010/09Air Force49Colorado State27
200910/31Colorado State16Air Force34
200811/08Air Force38Colorado State17
200710/13Colorado State21Air Force45
200610/12Air Force24Colorado State21
200509/29Colorado State41Air Force23
200411/20Air Force47Colorado State17
200310/16Colorado State30Air Force20
200210/31Air Force12Colorado State31
200111/08Colorado State28Air Force21
200011/10Air Force44Colorado State40
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State765 Overs
Air Force1865 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 103 - 91 - 42 - 5
Road Teams10 - 159 - 35 - 24 - 1

(#90) AFA at (#106) CSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFACSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #90 #106
SP+SP+ #80 #124
Perf GradeGrade #40 #135
OffenseOff #8 #124
DefenseDef #117 #135
Spec TeamsST #57 #132
TalentTal #134 #87
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Air Force Notes
(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report
Colorado State Notes
(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffCSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #8 #135
SuccessSuc #77 #78
ExplosiveExp #134 #49
PPAPPA #103 #61
PowerPwr #72 #126
SP+SP+ #59 #105
Pts POPPO #56 #88
HavocHav #16 #59
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #71 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #60 #59
Run ExplRExp #112 #88
PPAExp #60 #55
Run BlockR Blk #7 -
OL YdsOLY #68 #70
Stuff RateStuff #21 #93
TackleTak -  #61
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #39 #115
Pass SuccessPSuc #131 #94
Pass ExplPExl #1 #16
PPAExp #124 #59
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #96 #135
F7 HavocF7 #55 #91
DB HavocDB #2 #22
Colorado State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatCSU OffAFA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #124 #117
SuccessSuc #76 #68
ExplosiveExp #85 #84
PPAPPA #90 #88
PowerPwr #77 #110
SP+SP+ #120 #101
Pts POPPO #98 #84
HavocHav #59 #86
Colorado State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #97 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #47
Run ExplRExp #87 #101
PPAExp #115 #56
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLY #96 #73
Stuff RateStuff #112 #82
TackleTak -  #46
Colorado State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatCSU OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #121 #131
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #89
Pass ExplPExl #25 #63
PPAExp #43 #107
Pass Block/RushP Blk #124 #52
F7 HavocF7 #46 #63
DB HavocDB #98 #120
Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 14
Air Force 2.5 (47.5)
Air Force won at Colorado State this year (42-21)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Colorado State last year (42-21)
Colorado State beat Air Force in 2024 (21-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2023 (30-13)

  
AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Dylan Carson9141944.664
Cade Harris6132145.349
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris35584216.774
Bruin Fleischmann21370617.668
Quin Smith15358423.952
Jonah Dawson12260121.753

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Peyton Zdroik366191
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Jackson Adams174332
Grady Forsythe22200
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Brousseau12820164%1354936.7
Darius Curry7010765%740576.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree10250825.031
Lloyd Avant (Tr)9041754.623
Justin Marshall4926015.373
Javion Kinnard125604.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)31388712.548
Tommy Maher32358011.235
Tay Lanier3531529.039
Armani Winfield22276212.549

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long1485205
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)725111
Jace Bellah581020
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Owen Long1485205
Jeremy Naborne354220
Paul Tangelo (Tr)193241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Jahari Rogers (Tr)314118
Owen Long1485205