Air Force at UConn - 2025 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at UConn HuskiesUConn logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Rentschler Field - East Hartford, CT

 
Falcons (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 40 - 31 (30 - 49 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.2 - 7.8 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)
AFA 2nd straight Road Game
CONN 3rd straight Home Game
CONN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UConn -18.5   (SP+ CONN -9)

Projected Score: AFA: 27 - CONN: 46 (73)
CONN Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
AFA Travel: 1697 miles, 2 hrs behind
Huskies (1 - 2) (1 - 1 - 1)
Coach Jim L. Mora (17 - 20)
Avg Score : 40 - 28 (59 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.9 - 4.1 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-31.054.5W 49 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-4.051.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i+1.5
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+16.5
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+13.5
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+3.5
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+6
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+18.5
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico-4.5
Sat 11/29 Air Force at Colorado State+8

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
UConn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UConn vs Central Connecticut-29.551.5W 59 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 UConn at Syracuse+7.057.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 9/13 UConn at Delaware-8.552.5L 41 - 44ON
Sat 9/20 UConn vs Ball State-21.052.5
Sat 9/27 UConn at Buffalo-6
Sat 10/4 UConn vs Florida International-14
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 UConn at Boston College+6.5
Sat 10/25 UConn at Rice-11.5
Sat 11/1 UConn vs UAB-20.5
Sat 11/8 UConn vs Duke-1
Sat 11/15 UConn vs Air Force-18.5
Sat 11/22 UConn at Florida Atlantic-9.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for UConn's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#30 (.34)53% (21)39.557% (13)3.48 (27)26741% (83)1696.08 (4)#124 (.33)47% (116)3140% (76)54% (130)5.33 (128)45.51.51
CONN#24 (.37)48% (39)4046% (57)1.8 (135)14550% (32)2214.46 (47)#54 (.09)42% (79)2846% (101)38% (60)2.36 (29)36.700.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
CONN#67 (.19)42% (82)43% (82)3.07 (58)18440% (84)1874.09 (51)#25 (.1)39% (37)42% (63)37% (23)3.36 (26)50.41.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense239.53052.8%6.081.5234362671694.872%28%57%41%9%.34
CONN Defense3281341.6%2.360.7 - - - - - 42%58%46%38%20%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense2314946.9%5.331 - - - - - 52%48%40%54%14%.33
CONN Offense3405948.2%4.460153661452216.745%55%46%50%15%.37

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force234:542352%100%4.545.51.515.54.5026.4
UConn320:2015.348%40%436.700.74.71.3027.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense272% (5)57% (13)56266.54.88 (26).35 (22)3.48 (27)77% (45)5% (10)0.9 (87)
CONN Defense342% (20)46% (101) - - - - -.08 (26)1.91 (7)38% (4)11% (54)0.7 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense252% (92)40% (76) - - - - .3 (127)3.29 (123)60% (34)10% (65)1.32 (125)
CONN Offense345% (98)46% (57)21.71456.75 (62).34 (24)1.8 (135)71% (67)7% (38)1.3 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense228% (132)41% (83)8.51616910.619.92 (102)2 (60).31 (65)1.7 (33)26% (30)22% (118)-.04 (128)4% (35)1.1 (133)
CONN Defense358% (120)38% (60) - - - - - - 1 (87).22 (69)1.5 (73)27% (125)33% (95).59 (123)9% (12)2.1 (77)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense248% (49)54% (130) - - - - - - 1 (87).38 (112)1.5 (57)29% (107)50% (134).89 (134)3% (116)2.1 (83)
CONN Offense355% (35)50% (32)17.327.3220.78.112.75 (54)0 (1).4 (46)1.3 (115)33% (97)24% (111).24 (90)8% (119)2 (63)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -16.01 #119
Air Force's Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -16.01   UConn: 6.09

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -9.2   UConn: -0.3




UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: 6.09 #63
UConn's Offense Rating: 16.24 #44
UConn's Defense Rating: 8.76 #76
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
UConn's 2025 Expected Record: 7.9 - 4.1
UConn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #57
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 833
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 39.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 49

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
UConn 46
Air Force 27


Total Points: 73

UConn Scoring
Offense: 40 PPG
Offense at Home: 59
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

UConn's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UConn000 Overs
Air Force000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#119) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -16.01 #119
Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8

Team Profile
Option Offense 72%, Pass: 28%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 6.08 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.33 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Awful Pass Def Success 54%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Air Force has lost 8 straight
Air Force has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Air Force Notes
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
(5/6) Started 0-7, finished 4-0 in 2024
(5/5) RB Carson/Allen back, FB Frew back. Avg
(5/5) WR top 2 back in Harris/Smith. Decent

Air Force Highlights
Air Force offense is efficent (#21)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good in red zone (#4)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force has a bad defense (#116)
Air Force gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#109)
Air Force Does Not Stuff Runs (#117)
Air Force has a bad defensive line (#123)
Air Force has a bad red zone defense (#128)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCONNAFA
OverallOver#22#60
OffenseOff#16#21
DefenseDef#49#88
Special TeamsST#47#74
PassingPass#21#66
RushingRush#37#44
Run BlockRBLK#7#6
Pass BlockPBLK#36#61
Route RunningWR Rt#51#82
TacklingTkl#30#85
Run DefenseR Def#40#60
Pass Rush DefPRush#29#74
Coverage DefCov#78#107

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rentschler Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | CONN
Depth Chart: AFA | CONN
Rosters: AFA | CONN
(#63) UConn Info
Power Rating: 6.09 #63
Offense Rating: 16.24 #44
Defense Rating: 8.76 #76
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #57
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86
Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Expected Record: 7.9 - 4.1

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Good Offense Success Rate of 48%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Avg Run Success 46%
Good Pass Success 50%
Good OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Good in Scoring Position 2.36 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

UConn has lost 9 straight
UConn has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

UConn Notes
(9/1) Fagano good, Off 600+ yds vs FCS. Good start
(3/21) QB Evers started last 1/2 LY. JAG
(3/21) RB Edwards back, Brown good depth
(3/21) WR Sheffield/Bell good combo. Added depth
(3/21) Def OK LY, considering. 12 portal adds.
(3/21) HC Mora great job LY. Tough job, doing well

UConn Highlights
UConn is Undefeated at Home
UConn is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

UConn offense is good on 3rd downs
UConn defense is really good in red zone (#29)
UConn Defensive Line is very good (#7)
UConn Secondary is very good (#12)
UConn has a great TO Margin (#1)
UConn commits very few Penalties (#25)

UConn Deficiencies


  
Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Johnson91656%2242114.0
Liam Szarka81650%114017.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris1613828.649
Dylan Carson1910515.517
Christopher Frew660010.014
Owen Allen175613.314
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris5146129.262
Quin Smith385128.340
James Roberson480020.029
Bruin Fleischmann31906.37

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher220020
Roger Jones Jr.120000
Luke Fisher90010
Nick Beckwith90001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert64310
Jackson Adams52200
Grady Forsythe22200
Lukia Rawls Jr.52100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Beckwith90001
Houston Hendrix60001
Korey Johnson50001

UConn's OC Gordon Sammis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joe Fagnano7010666%865508.2
Nick Evers81173%83107.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Camryn Edwards5030636.173
Jayden Brown1615919.949
Victor Rosa880210.031
Oliver Lundberg-Coleman53607.29
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Skyler Bell22332215.180
Reymello Murphy (Tr)11128211.627
Louis Hansen887010.919
John Neider563012.629

View UConn's Full Roster
UConn's DC Matt Brock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryun Parham (Tr)247500
Oumar Diomande213110
Tyquan King (Tr)193201
Cam Chadwick171001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryun Parham (Tr)247500
Tyquan King (Tr)193201
Donovan Branch101120
Oumar Diomande213110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Mon Brinson151004
Tyrece Mills (Tr)122013
Lee Molette III120002