Air Force at UConn - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
UConn -7.5 (64.5) (-305) Open: -7.0
UConn 26 - Air Force: 16

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

AFA 2nd straight Road Game
CONN 3rd straight Home Game
CONN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UConn -12 (SP+ CONN -10)
Projected Score: AFA: 26 - CONN: 38 (64)
CONN Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 1697 miles, 2 hrs behind

Huskies (9 - 4) (6 - 5 - 2)
Coach Jim L. Mora (17 - 20)
Avg Score : 35 - 27 (40 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
CONN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Air Force vs Bucknell	-31.0	54.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Air Force at Utah State	-4.0	51.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	Air Force vs Boise State	+10.5	51.5	L 37 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/27	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-7.0	52.5	L 35 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/4	Air Force at Navy	+13.5	50.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Air Force at UNLV	+7.0	65.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Air Force vs Wyoming	-4.0	56.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Air Force vs Army	+1.5	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/8	Air Force at San José State	+6.0	67.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Air Force at UConn	+7.5	64.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/22	Air Force vs New Mexico	+3.5	53.5	L 3 - 20	U	N
Fri 11/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-2.5	47.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 2

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

UConn's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UConn vs Central Connecticut	-29.5	51.5	W 59 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	UConn at Syracuse	+7.0	57.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/13	UConn at Delaware	-8.5	52.5	L 41 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/20	UConn vs Ball State	-21.0	53.5	W 31 - 25	O	N
Sat 9/27	UConn at Buffalo	-3.0	51.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/4	UConn vs Florida International	-7.0	52.5	W 51 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	UConn at Boston College	-2.5	58.5	W 38 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/25	UConn at Rice	-10.5	48.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/1	UConn vs UAB	-10.0	61.5	W 38 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/8	UConn vs Duke	+7.5	63.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/15	UConn vs Air Force	-7.5	64.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/22	UConn at Florida Atlantic	-6.0	64.0	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/27	UConn vs Army	+5.5	41.5	L 16 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3

Predictions for UConn's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#18 (.29)	47% (20)	29.8	48% (24)	3.27 (18)	262	47% (21)	145	4.6 (13)	#136 (.41)	50% (134)	30.3	46% (110)	54% (136)	4.28 (123)	31.3	1	0.8
CONN	#13 (.31)	46% (29)	35.3	46% (46)	2.93 (70)	151	47% (25)	277	4.58 (16)	#112 (.22)	47% (126)	27	50% (133)	43% (89)	3.8 (81)	45.5	0.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
CONN	#67 (.19)	42% (82)		43% (82)	3.07 (58)	184	40% (84)	187	4.09 (51)	#25 (.1)	39% (37)		42% (63)	37% (23)	3.36 (26)	50.4	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	12	29.8	32.2	47.3%	4.6	1	22	407	262	145	4.8	77%	21%	48%	47%	9%	.29
CONN Defense	13	27	19.5	46.6%	3.8	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	50%	43%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	12	30.3	32.8	49.8%	4.28	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	46%	54%	11%	.41
CONN Offense	13	35.3	40.3	46%	4.58	0.2	20	428	151	277	5.3	45%	54%	46%	47%	12%	.31

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	12	33:52	22	51%	71%	3.6	31.3	1	0.8	3.3	1.3	0	28.2
UConn	13	27:00	20.1	42%	72%	4.5	45.5	0.2	1.2	5.8	2.6	0	30.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	12	77% (2)	48% (24)	54.4	261.5	4.8	33 (1)	.23 (18)	3.27 (18)	79% (22)	7% (9)	0.96 (69)
CONN Defense	13	55% (121)	50% (133)	-	-	-	-	.21 (123)	3.37 (132)	67% (33)	10% (68)	0.95 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	12	49% (53)	46% (110)	-	-	-	-	.31 (136)	3.3 (127)	76% (102)	6% (135)	1.21 (133)
CONN Offense	13	45% (111)	46% (46)	28.6	150.6	5.3	24 (36)	.21 (28)	2.93 (70)	82% (9)	6% (3)	1.04 (39)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	12	21% (135)	47% (21)	8.1	13.7	145.2	10.6	18	13 (75)	7 (34)	.55 (3)	2.1 (2)	24% (4)	33% (39)	.39 (39)	2% (3)	2 (63)
CONN Defense	13	44% (18)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (55)	.28 (85)	1.6 (69)	26% (132)	33% (116)	.4 (115)	5% (95)	2 (80)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	12	50% (85)	54% (136)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (75)	.51 (135)	1.5 (31)	28% (128)	40% (136)	.73 (136)	4% (127)	2.3 (128)
CONN Offense	13	54% (25)	47% (25)	22.8	33.4	277.4	8.3	12.2	30 (14)	1 (1)	.44 (14)	1.6 (51)	32% (74)	29% (84)	.48 (14)	6% (59)	2.5 (1)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -8.56 #101
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.77 #59
Air Force's Defense Rating: 19.33 #129
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #86
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #63
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -8.56 UConn: 6.04

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.5 UConn: 6.7

UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: 6.04 #70
UConn's Offense Rating: 17.68 #25
UConn's Defense Rating: 17.30 #120
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
UConn's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
UConn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7 #45
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #31
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #71

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 827
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
UConn 38
Air Force 26

Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
UConn 34
Air Force 30

Total Points: 64

Based on Entire Season
UConn 35
Air Force 27

Total Points: 62

UConn Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

UConn's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	UConn	26	Air Force	16	UConn -7.5	UConn	64.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UConn	1	1	0 Overs
Air Force	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#101) AFA at (#70) CONN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	CONN
Power RatePwr	#101	#70
SP+SP+	#86	#45
Perf GradeGrade	#54	#33
OffenseOff	#10	#12
DefenseDef	#124	#98
Spec TeamsST	#66	#84
TalentTal	#134	#95
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#65

Air Force Notes(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report

UConn Notes(12/6) Hires Jason Candle (Toledo HC), Mora to Col St
(10/25) Bad L vs Rice, Def mauled for 300 yds rushing
(10/18) Great W at BC, QB Fagano balled out, 5-2 and rolling
(9/1) Fagano good, Off 600+ yds vs FCS. Good start
(3/21) QB Evers started last 1/2 LY. JAG
(3/21) RB Edwards back, Brown good depth
(3/21) WR Sheffield/Bell good combo. Added depth
(3/21) Def OK LY, considering. 12 portal adds.
(3/21) HC Mora great job LY. Tough job, doing well
UConn Injury Report

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	CONN Def
Perf GradePerf	#10	#98
SuccessSuc	#20	#126
ExplosiveExp	#89	#40
PPAPPA	#18	#112
PowerPwr	#59	#120
SP+SP+	#63	#71
Pts POPPO	#13	#81
HavocHav	#2	#89

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	CONN Def
Run GameRun	#64	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#24	#133
Run ExplRExp	#69	#68
PPAExp	#18	#123
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#18	#132
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#135
TackleTak	-	#109

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	CONN Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#68
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#2	#69
PPAExp	#3	#85
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#98	#87
F7 HavocF7	#9	#68
DB HavocDB	#3	#95

UConn on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	AFA Def
Perf GradePerf	#12	#124
SuccessSuc	#29	#134
ExplosiveExp	#27	#123
PPAPPA	#13	#136
PowerPwr	#25	#129
SP+SP+	#31	#101
Pts POPPO	#16	#123
HavocHav	#13	#133

UConn Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#45	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#110
Run ExplRExp	#39	#133
PPAExp	#28	#136
Run BlockR Blk	#5	-
OL YdsOLY	#70	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#39	#133
TackleTak	-	#43

UConn Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#136
Pass ExplPExl	#51	#31
PPAExp	#14	#135
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#71	#57
F7 HavocF7	#3	#135
DB HavocDB	#59	#127

Program Comparison
CONN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rentschler Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 45°

Rematch from Week 12
UConn -7.5 (64.5)
UConn won vs Air Force this year (26-16)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Liam Szarka	75	120	63%	1294	9	5	10.8
Josh Johnson	16	28	57%	374	4	2	13.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Liam Szarka	190	922	13	4.9	64
Owen Allen	131	749	5	5.7	43
Dylan Carson	91	419	4	4.6	64
Cade Harris	61	321	4	5.3	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	35	584	2	16.7	74
Bruin Fleischmann	21	370	6	17.6	68
Quin Smith	15	358	4	23.9	52
Jonah Dawson	12	260	1	21.7	53

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Fletcher	108	1	0	5	2
Roger Jones Jr.	76	1	0	1	0
Dallas Daley	45	1	0	1	3
Peyton Zdroik	36	6	1	9	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Hubert	30	11	5	7	1
Jackson Adams	17	4	3	3	2
Grady Forsythe	2	2	2	0	0
Jaylin Reese	10	1	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Korey Johnson	34	0	0	4
Dallas Daley	45	1	1	3
Blake Fletcher	108	1	5	2

CONN's OC Gordon Sammis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joe Fagnano	284	412	69%	3441	28	1	8.4
Ksaan Farrar	11	18	61%	84	0	0	4.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Camryn Edwards	210	1240	15	5.9	73
Jayden Brown	32	262	2	8.2	49
Victor Rosa	30	155	2	5.2	31
Oliver Lundberg-Coleman	23	138	1	6.0	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Skyler Bell	101	1276	13	12.6	80
Reymello Murphy (Tr)	39	446	3	11.4	61
John Neider	27	422	2	15.6	45
Javonte Vereen (Tr)	21	305	5	14.5	50

View UConn's Full Roster

CONN's DC Matt Brock (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryun Parham (Tr)	125	15	10	1	1
Oumar Diomande	116	8	5	5	1
Malachi McLean	79	2	1	1	2
Cam Chadwick	66	3	1	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryun Parham (Tr)	125	15	10	1	1
Oumar Diomande	116	8	5	5	1
Donovan Branch	30	5	4	7	1
Tyquan King (Tr)	41	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Mon Brinson	59	7	0	0	6
Tyrece Mills (Tr)	25	2	0	1	5
Cam Chadwick	66	3	1	2	4