Hawai'i at Air Force - 2025 Matchup Preview
Hawai Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -7 (52.5) (-278)  Open: -5.5
Hawai'i 44 - Air Force: 35  (Mountain West)

 
Rainbow Warriors (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (26 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
Wind: 17.4 MPH
AFA 2nd straight Home Game
HAW is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -1  (SP+ HAW -4.5)

Projected Score: HAW: 26 - AFA: 27 (53)
AFA Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
HAW Travel: 3341 miles, 3 hrs behind
Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
 
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.553.5W 31 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.555.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.548.5W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+2.564.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming-8.545.0W 27 - 7UY
Wed 12/24 Hawai'i vs California-1.550.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 6, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-31.054.5W 49 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-4.051.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+10.551.5L 37 - 49ON
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i-7.052.5L 35 - 44ON
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+13.550.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+7.065.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming-4.056.5W 24 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+1.548.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+6.067.5W 26 - 16UY
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+7.564.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico+3.553.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 11/28 Air Force at Colorado State-2.547.5W 42 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (98)9844% (49)2673.77 (61)#72 (.17)42% (67)24.143% (74)40% (58)3.35 (41)61.51.31.1
AFA#18 (.29)47% (20)29.848% (24)3.27 (18)26247% (21)1454.6 (13)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (123)31.310.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Offense132925.841.2%3.771.319365982673.737%62%38%44%12%.18
AFA Defense1230.327.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Defense1324.135.441.6%3.351.1 - - - - - 46%52%43%40%16%.17
AFA Offense1229.827.547.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Hawai'i1329:3718.645%53%7.161.51.31.14.62.2329.9
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)26.397.53.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (98)59% (131)7% (13)0.91 (90)
AFA Defense1249% (53)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Defense1346% (26)43% (74) - - - - .1 (66)3.21 (119)81% (124)9% (82)0.97 (76)
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (24)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (18)79% (22)7% (9)0.96 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)24.337.8267.47.11126 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (31).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (17)
AFA Defense1250% (85)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (127)2.3 (128)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Defense1352% (110)40% (58) - - - - - - 8 (55).25 (71)1.6 (77)34% (36)31% (82).42 (124)7% (41)2.2 (118)
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (21)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (3)2.1 (2)24% (4)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (63)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -9.82  #108
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.56  #118
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 11.38  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #75
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -9.82   Air Force: -3.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: 0.9   Air Force: -3.5




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -3.53  #101
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.77  #59
Air Force's Defense Rating: 19.33  #129
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00  #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5  #86
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #63
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.4

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 27
Hawai'i 26


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 25
Hawai'i 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 29
Hawai'i 28

Total Points: 57
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Air Force35Hawai'i44Air Force -7Hawai'i52.5Over
202311/11Hawai'i27Air Force13Air Force -22.5Hawai'i47.5Under
201910/19Hawai'i26Air Force56Air Force -4.5Air Force66.5Over
201610/22Air Force27Hawai'i34Air Force -17.5Hawai'i58.0Over
201510/31Hawai'i7Air Force58Air Force -7.5Air Force50.0Over
201211/16Air Force21Hawai'i7
200111/24Hawai'i52Air Force30
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force324 Overs
Hawai'i431 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 41 - 40 - 21 - 2
Road Teams4 - 34 - 12 - 12 - 0

(#108) HAW at (#101) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHAWAFA
Power RatePwr #108 #101
SP+SP+ #68 #86
Perf GradeGrade #100 #54
OffenseOff #107 #10
DefenseDef #96 #124
Spec TeamsST #71 #66
TalentTal #125 #134
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Hawai'i Notes
(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report
Air Force Notes
(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffAFA Def
Perf GradePerf #107 #124
SuccessSuc #88 #134
ExplosiveExp #29 #123
PPAPPA #62 #136
PowerPwr #118 #129
SP+SP+ #75 #101
Pts POPPO #61 #123
HavocHav #16 #133
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #111 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #110
Run ExplRExp #90 #133
PPAExp #118 #136
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #98 #127
Stuff RateStuff #98 #133
TackleTak -  #43
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #45 #134
Pass SuccessPSuc #49 #136
Pass ExplPExl #61 #31
PPAExp #47 #135
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #109 #57
F7 HavocF7 #13 #135
DB HavocDB #39 #127
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffHAW Def
Perf GradePerf #10 #96
SuccessSuc #20 #67
ExplosiveExp #89 #87
PPAPPA #18 #72
PowerPwr #59 #87
SP+SP+ #63 #65
Pts POPPO #13 #41
HavocHav #2 #63
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #64 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #74
Run ExplRExp #69 #76
PPAExp #18 #66
Run BlockR Blk #6 -
OL YdsOLY #18 #119
Stuff RateStuff #2 #117
TackleTak -  #128
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #43 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #58
Pass ExplPExl #2 #77
PPAExp #3 #71
Pass Block/RushP Blk #98 #29
F7 HavocF7 #9 #82
DB HavocDB #3 #41
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77° - Wind: 17 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Air Force -7.0 (52.5)
Hawai'i won at Air Force this year (44-35)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Air Force in 2023 (27-13)

  
HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Luke Weaver6310560%628636.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims12255934.643
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Christian Vaughn199705.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)499631219.778
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Brandon White (Tr)38399210.546
Karsyn Pupunu3330609.322

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma733117
Jalen Smith543102
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III288730
De'jon Benton (Tr)299670
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Qwyn Williams (Tr)285320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Peter Manuma733117
Virdel Edwards311006

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Dylan Carson9141944.664
Cade Harris6132145.349
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris35584216.774
Bruin Fleischmann21370617.668
Quin Smith15358423.952
Jonah Dawson12260121.753

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Peyton Zdroik366191
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Jackson Adams174332
Grady Forsythe22200
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052