Air Force at San José State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at San José State SpartansSan José State logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Spartan Stadium - San Jose, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 40 - 31 (30 - 49 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.2 - 7.8 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)
SJSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: San José State -6   (SP+ AFA -2.5)

Projected Score: AFA: 24 - SJSU: 30 (54)
SJSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
AFA Travel: 931 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Spartans (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 11 - 27 (14 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#84)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-31.054.5W 49 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-4.051.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i+1.5
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+16.5
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+13.5
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+3.5
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+6
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+18.5
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico-4.5
Sat 11/29 Air Force at Colorado State+8

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.5
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+10
Sat 10/4 San José State vs New Mexico-8
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming+6
Sat 10/18 San José State at Utah State-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-5.5
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+6
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#30 (.34)53% (21)39.557% (13)3.48 (27)26741% (83)1696.08 (4)#124 (.33)47% (116)3140% (76)54% (130)5.33 (128)45.51.51
SJSU#132 (-.02)40% (102)10.544% (70)2.81 (86)8038% (102)2481.4 (132)#83 (.16)42% (81)2744% (93)38% (56)3.13 (55)273.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)41% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)42% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense239.53052.8%6.081.5234362671694.872%28%57%41%9%.34
SJSU Defense2271642%3.131 - - - - - 67%33%44%38%13%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense2314946.9%5.331 - - - - - 52%48%40%54%14%.33
SJSU Offense210.51439.7%1.43.51832880248336%63%44%38%19%-.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force234:542352%100%4.545.51.515.54.5026.4
San José State228:0017.539%0%3.5273.513.50.5027
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense272% (5)57% (13)56266.54.88 (26).35 (22)3.48 (27)77% (45)5% (10)0.9 (87)
SJSU Defense267% (135)44% (93) - - - - .08 (76)3.08 (101)63% (43)7% (114)0.78 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense252% (92)40% (76) - - - - .3 (127)3.29 (123)60% (34)10% (65)1.32 (125)
SJSU Offense236% (134)44% (70)26.58031 (127)-.16 (132)2.81 (86)50% (124)7% (40)0.39 (136)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense228% (132)41% (83)8.51616910.619.92 (102)2 (60).31 (65)1.7 (33)26% (30)22% (118)-.04 (128)4% (35)1.1 (133)
SJSU Defense233% (3)38% (56) - - - - - - 1 (87).32 (103)1.9 (122)33% (66)14% (9).14 (41)6% (76)2.4 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense248% (49)54% (130) - - - - - - 1 (87).38 (112)1.5 (57)29% (107)50% (134).89 (134)3% (116)2.1 (83)
SJSU Offense263% (6)38% (102)22.5432485.8112 (102)3 (92).13 (109)1.3 (117)32% (88)21% (123)-.08 (132)11% (136)1.3 (131)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -16.01 #119
Air Force's Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -16.01   San José State: -6.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -9.2   San José State: -11.8




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -6.53 #96
San José State's Offense Rating: 3.95 #111
San José State's Defense Rating: 10.21 #83
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8 #111
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 39.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 49

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
San José State 30
Air Force 24


Total Points: 54

San José State Scoring
Offense: 10.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 14
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 16

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Air Force7San José State17San José StateAir Force -1.5San José State43.5Under
202309/22San José State20Air Force45Air ForceAir Force -6Air Force45.5Over
202010/24San José State17Air Force6San José StateAir Force -7.5San José State63.5Under
201909/27Air Force41San José State24Air ForceAir Force -19.5San José State58.5Over
201611/19San José State38Air Force41Air ForceAir Force -11San José State54.5Over
201509/12Air Force37San José State16Air ForceAir Force -7Air Force58.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State243 Overs
Air Force423 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 33 - 31 - 22 - 1
Road Teams3 - 33 - 31 - 22 - 1

(#119) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -16.01 #119
Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8

Team Profile
Option Offense 72%, Pass: 28%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 6.08 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.33 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Awful Pass Def Success 54%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Air Force has lost 7 straight
Air Force has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Air Force Notes
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
(5/6) Started 0-7, finished 4-0 in 2024
(5/5) RB Carson/Allen back, FB Frew back. Avg
(5/5) WR top 2 back in Harris/Smith. Decent

Air Force Highlights
Air Force offense is efficent (#21)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good in red zone (#4)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force has a bad defense (#116)
Air Force gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#109)
Air Force Does Not Stuff Runs (#117)
Air Force has a bad defensive line (#123)
Air Force has a bad red zone defense (#128)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatSJSUAFA
OverallOver#109#60
OffenseOff#108#21
DefenseDef#97#88
Special TeamsST#37#74
PassingPass#93#66
RushingRush#102#44
Run BlockRBLK#102#6
Pass BlockPBLK#118#61
Route RunningWR Rt#89#82
TacklingTkl#75#85
Run DefenseR Def#75#60
Pass Rush DefPRush#82#74
Coverage DefCov#115#107

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Air Force last year (17-7)
Air Force beat San José State in 2023 (45-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | SJSU
Depth Chart: AFA | SJSU
Rosters: AFA | SJSU
(#96) San José State Info
Power Rating: -6.53 #96
Offense Rating: 3.95 #111
Defense Rating: 10.21 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106
Talent Rating: 504.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 36%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.4 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Awful OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.13 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

San José State has lost 8 straight
San José State has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

San José State Notes
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
(5/4) OL 4/5 back, grades are rough. No portals?
(5/4) Def bad LY, 5 portals, LB Pollard a machine
(5/4) Great job by Niumatalolo & staff with 8 W's

San José State Highlights
San José State commits very few Penalties (#1)

San José State Deficiencies
San José State has a really bad Offense
San José State has a really bad Offense at Home
San José State has a bad TO Margin (#125)
San José State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
San José State Can Not Run the Ball (#134)
San José State offense is really bad (#102)
San José State offense is not Explosive (#134)
San José State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#132)
San José State pass game is really bad (#102)
San José State does not Sack the QB (#130)
San José State has a bad defensive line (#101)


  
Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Johnson91656%2242114.0
Liam Szarka81650%114017.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris1613828.649
Dylan Carson1910515.517
Christopher Frew660010.014
Owen Allen175613.314
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris5146129.262
Quin Smith385128.340
James Roberson480020.029
Bruin Fleischmann31906.37

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher220020
Roger Jones Jr.120000
Luke Fisher90010
Nick Beckwith90001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert64310
Jackson Adams52200
Grady Forsythe22200
Lukia Rawls Jr.52100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Beckwith90001
Houston Hendrix60001
Korey Johnson50001

San José State's OC Craig Stutzmann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget458553%496235.8
Tama Amisone010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Floyd Chalk IV208304.211
Jabari Bates104414.413
Lamar Radcliffe123102.68
Tama Amisone52304.610
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)16255115.946
Kyri Shoels108708.716
Leland Smith (Tr)250125.039
Jackson Canaan63906.512

View San José State's Full Roster
San José State's DC Derrick Odum
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard200012
Taniela Latu153001
Jalen Apalit-Williams140011
Noah McNeal-Franklin132000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)82121
Jordan Pollard200012
Justin Stearns50000
Dejon Roney10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard200012
Jalen Apalit-Williams140011
Isiah Revis80001