Air Force at San José State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at San José State SpartansSan José State logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Spartan Stadium - San Jose, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
SJSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: San José State -10.5   (SP+ SJSU -2)
Projected Score: AFA: 20 - SJSU: 30 (49)
SJSU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
AFA Travel: 931 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (29 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
 
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-0
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+20
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i-1
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+11
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+10.5
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+7
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+10.5
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+11.5
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico-6
Sat 11/29 Air Force at Colorado State+6

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-10.551.0
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+36
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-18.5
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+2
Sat 10/4 San José State vs New Mexico-14
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming-5.5
Sat 10/18 San José State at Utah State-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-9
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-10.5
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-10
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State-5
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State-4.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)18.945% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)23.341% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)28.441% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)27.542% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SJSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1218.919.242.1%4.021.31831422590482%18%45%31%12%.13
SJSU Defense1327.525.640.8%3.582.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1223.328.841.7%3.971 - - - - - 56%44%41%43%15%.2
SJSU Offense1328.42943.9%3.62.222410883223.637%63%41%46%18%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:5817.942%64%3281.314.31.5028.6
San José State1326:2321.740%53%761.52.22.27.21.9228.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1282% (2)45% (60)55.7224.7424 (45).15 (60)3.03 (68)83% (11)9% (55)0.88 (112)
SJSU Defense1353% (94)42% (66) - - - - .03 (21)2.71 (23)77% (96)11% (41)0.86 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1256% (120)41% (47) - - - - .1 (56)3.02 (73)66% (28)10% (63)1.07 (101)
SJSU Offense1337% (131)41% (98)24.687.93.613 (105)-.06 (131)2.27 (133)70% (91)9% (57)0.81 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1218% (133)31% (131)5.211.589.87.817.45 (134)10 (63).09 (124)2.1 (1)27% (14)25% (124).18 (111)3% (2)2.1 (66)
SJSU Defense1347% (43)39% (47) - - - - - - 21 (1).19 (48)1.7 (105)34% (36)29% (45).24 (38)6% (56)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1244% (16)43% (89) - - - - - - 4 (125).33 (107)1.6 (63)31% (79)30% (54).3 (63)5% (120)2 (60)
SJSU Offense1363% (3)46% (28)24.342.3321.87.613.231 (6)16 (124).33 (39)1.6 (74)30% (53)34% (46).38 (49)9% (131)2.1 (65)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -18.74 #117
Air Force's Offense Rating: 5.28 #121
Air Force's Defense Rating: 24.02 #116
2025 Talent Rating: 176.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.3 #94
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #116
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #59

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 858.6
Average FBS Talent: 681.96

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -18.74   San José State: -2.54

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -7.3   San José State: -5.2




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -2.54 #81
San José State's Offense Rating: 11.29 #84
San José State's Defense Rating: 16.17 #75
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.2 #83
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #81
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #92

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 858.6
Average FBS Talent: 681.96


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
San José State 30
Air Force 20

Projected Total Points: 49
San José State Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Air Force7San José State17San José StateAir Force -1.5San José State43.5Under
202309/22San José State20Air Force45Air ForceAir Force -6Air Force45.5Over
202010/24San José State17Air Force6San José StateAir Force -7.5San José State63.5Under
201909/27Air Force41San José State24Air ForceAir Force -19.5San José State58.5Over
201611/19San José State38Air Force41Air ForceAir Force -11San José State54.5Over
201509/12Air Force37San José State16Air ForceAir Force -7Air Force58.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State243 Overs
Air Force423 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 33 - 31 - 22 - 1
Road Teams3 - 33 - 31 - 22 - 1

(#117) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.74 #117
Offense Rating: 5.28 #121
Defense Rating: 24.02 #116
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.3 #94
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #116
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #59
Talent Rating: 176.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Air Force Notes
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
(5/6) Started 0-7, finished 4-0 in 2024
(5/5) RB Carson/Allen back, FB Frew back. Avg
(5/5) WR top 2 back in Harris/Smith. Decent
(5/5) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Bad LY, jump?
(5/5) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. DL small
(5/5) Expect Calhoun to bounce back after down '24
Air Force     Ratings Matchup     San José State
Power #117
#81
Off #121
#84
Def #116
#75
Talent #134
#107
SP+ #94
#83
SP+ Off #116
#81
SP+ Def #59
#92

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Air Force last year (17-7)
Air Force beat San José State in 2023 (45-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | SJSU
Depth Chart: AFA | SJSU
Rosters: AFA | SJSU
(#81) San José State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.54 #81
Offense Rating: 11.29 #84
Defense Rating: 16.17 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.2 #83
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #81
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #92
Talent Rating: 488.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.6 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Good Pass Success 46%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


San José State Notes
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) RB Chalk back, some depth. Better TY?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
(5/4) OL 4/5 back, grades are rough. No portals?
(5/4) Def bad LY, 5 portals, LB Pollard a machine
(5/4) Great job by Niumatalolo & staff with 8 W's


  
Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Johnson61443%126139.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Christopher Frew4526015.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843
James Roberson596119.245

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher375221
Daniel Grobe305113
Luke Fisher221000
Aidan Swartz223111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peyton Zdroik187330
Blake Fletcher375221
Aidan Swartz223111
Daniel Grobe305113
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Grobe305113
Kyle Chen212002
Blake Fletcher375221

San José State's OC Craig Stutzmann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget18832857%250413107.6
Xavier Ward1333%16015.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Floyd Chalk IV154721104.766
Jabari Bates5925414.331
Lamar Radcliffe3314114.318
Walker Eget299903.432
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)50650413.041
Matthew Coleman34401211.833
Jackson Canaan28314211.258
Cooper Hoch107607.617

View San José State's Full Roster
San José State's DC Derrick Odum
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard11514223
Taniela Latu717132
Isiah Revis716125
Noah McNeal-Franklin534120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Ward467341
Jordan Pollard11514223
Justin Stearns284220
Taniela Latu717132
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isiah Revis716125
Jordan Pollard11514223
Ethan Powell446133