Air Force at San José State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at San José State SpartansSan José State logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (6:00 PM EST)
San José State -6 (67.5) (-250)  Open: -2.5
Air Force 26 - San José State: 16  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
SJSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Air Force -3  (SP+ AFA -10)

Projected Score: AFA: 34 - SJSU: 31 (66)
SJSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
AFA Travel: 931 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Spartans (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-31.054.5W 49 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-4.051.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+10.551.5L 37 - 49ON
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i-7.052.5L 35 - 44ON
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+13.550.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+7.065.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming-4.056.5W 24 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+1.548.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+6.067.5W 26 - 16UY
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+7.564.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico+3.553.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 11/28 Air Force at Colorado State-2.547.5W 42 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+3.049.5L 29 - 30OY
Fri 10/3 San José State vs New Mexico-1.558.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming-1.550.5L 28 - 35ON
Fri 10/17 San José State at Utah State+3.063.5L 25 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.555.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6.067.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-10.049.5L 10 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+10.050.5L 3 - 25UN
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+3.546.0L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#18 (.29)47% (20)29.848% (24)3.27 (18)26247% (21)1454.6 (13)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (123)31.310.8
SJSU#66 (.18)44% (55)21.447% (29)3.06 (44)12041% (73)2832.77 (130)#98 (.2)42% (78)32.542% (66)43% (82)4.04 (106)54.82.31.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)41% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)42% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1229.832.247.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29
SJSU Defense1232.529.542.1%4.041.2 - - - - - 54%44%42%43%12%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1230.332.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
SJSU Offense1221.425.843.5%2.772.3204031202834.638%60%47%41%15%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
San José State1227:4720.143%26%5.854.82.31.24.31.5127.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (24)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (18)79% (22)7% (9)0.96 (69)
SJSU Defense1254% (117)42% (66) - - - - .11 (69)3.02 (97)80% (121)8% (123)0.9 (37)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1249% (53)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
SJSU Offense1238% (132)47% (29)26.1120.14.614 (107).12 (66)3.06 (44)71% (78)6% (2)0.94 (78)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (21)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (3)2.1 (2)24% (4)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (63)
SJSU Defense1244% (21)43% (82) - - - - - - 7 (38).34 (110)1.8 (128)31% (85)28% (54).32 (84)5% (119)2.1 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1250% (85)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (127)2.3 (128)
SJSU Offense1260% (5)41% (73)22.840.6283.2712.517 (30)17 (34).22 (82)1.5 (106)32% (86)32% (47).29 (72)9% (135)1.8 (124)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -8.56  #101
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.77  #59
Air Force's Defense Rating: 19.33  #129
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00  #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5  #86
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #63
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -8.56   San José State: -8.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.5   San José State: -13.5




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -8.89  #106
San José State's Offense Rating: 4.69  #91
San José State's Defense Rating: 13.97  #104
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5  #116
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #107
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7  #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 34
San José State 31


Total Points: 66

Based on Last 4 Games
San José State 37
Air Force 34

Total Points: 71

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 31
San José State 28

Total Points: 59
San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.8
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08San José State16Air Force26San José State -6Air Force67.5Under
202409/07Air Force7San José State17Air Force -1.5San José State43.5Under
202309/22San José State20Air Force45Air Force -6Air Force45.5Over
202010/24San José State17Air Force6Air Force -7.5San José State63.5Under
201909/27Air Force41San José State24Air Force -19.5San José State58.5Over
201611/19San José State38Air Force41Air Force -11San José State54.5Over
201509/12Air Force37San José State16Air Force -7Air Force58.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State243 Overs
Air Force534 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 43 - 41 - 32 - 1
Road Teams4 - 34 - 31 - 23 - 1

(#101) AFA at (#106) SJSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFASJSU
Power RatePwr #101 #106
SP+SP+ #86 #116
Perf GradeGrade #54 #109
OffenseOff #10 #115
DefenseDef #124 #74
Spec TeamsST #66 #29
TalentTal #134 #117
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Air Force Notes
(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report
San José State Notes
(11/21) DC Derrick Odum fired after Nevada blowout
(10/18) Box score W in L @ USU, 534 yds, 8 flags + 1 TO diff
(10/18) Pass Def awful, torched for 300+ in 5 of last 6 games
(10/12) Loss @ Wyoming may end goals. Regressing hard
(9/6) Cannot kick FG, cost them opener vs CMU
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
San José State Injury Report
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffSJSU Def
Perf GradePerf #10 #74
SuccessSuc #20 #78
ExplosiveExp #89 #100
PPAPPA #18 #98
PowerPwr #59 #104
SP+SP+ #63 #115
Pts POPPO #13 #106
HavocHav #2 #129
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffSJSU Def
Run GameRun #64 #27
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #66
Run ExplRExp #69 #37
PPAExp #18 #69
Run BlockR Blk #6 -
OL YdsOLY #18 #97
Stuff RateStuff #2 #128
TackleTak -  #81
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePass #43 #121
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #82
Pass ExplPExl #2 #128
PPAExp #3 #110
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #98 #84
F7 HavocF7 #9 #123
DB HavocDB #3 #119
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatSJSU OffAFA Def
Perf GradePerf #115 #124
SuccessSuc #55 #134
ExplosiveExp #59 #123
PPAPPA #66 #136
PowerPwr #91 #129
SP+SP+ #107 #101
Pts POPPO #130 #123
HavocHav #69 #133
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #61 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #29 #110
Run ExplRExp #78 #133
PPAExp #66 #136
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #44 #127
Stuff RateStuff #84 #133
TackleTak -  #43
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatSJSU OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #100 #134
Pass SuccessPSuc #73 #136
Pass ExplPExl #106 #31
PPAExp #82 #135
Pass Block/RushP Blk #128 #57
F7 HavocF7 #2 #135
DB HavocDB #135 #127
Program Comparison
SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 74°
Rematch from Week 11
San José State -6.0 (67.5)
Air Force won at San José State this year (26-16)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Air Force last year (17-7)
Air Force beat San José State in 2023 (45-20)

  
AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Dylan Carson9141944.664
Cade Harris6132145.349
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris35584216.774
Bruin Fleischmann21370617.668
Quin Smith15358423.952
Jonah Dawson12260121.753

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Peyton Zdroik366191
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Jackson Adams174332
Grady Forsythe22200
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget23239359%30581797.8
Tama Amisone265052%205034.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Steve Chavez-Soto8744875.166
Lamar Radcliffe6634015.230
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Tama Amisone3416014.723
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)8812971014.772
Kyri Shoels59768213.043
Leland Smith (Tr)43695316.245
Jackson Canaan3331509.544

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Bojay Filimoeatu (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard1085344
Taniela Latu656113
Noah McNeal-Franklin636132
Jaylen Thomas591006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)347471
Gafa Faga476350
Jordan Pollard1085344
Quincy Likio415210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Thomas591006
Jalen Bainer441105
Jordan Pollard1085344