Army at Air Force - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Army -1.5 (48.5) (-110) Open: -1.5
Army 20 - Air Force: 17

Black Knights (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Monken (81 - 57)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (21 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)

ARMY coming off BYE
AFA coming off BYE
Our Line: Air Force -0.5 (SP+ ARMY -4)
Projected Score: ARMY: 25 - AFA: 25 (50)
ARMY Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ARMY Travel: 1630 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
ARMY Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Army's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Army vs Tarleton State	-14.5	47.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/6	Army at Kansas State	+17.0	48.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Army vs North Texas	+2.5	50.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Thu 9/25	Army at East Carolina	+3.5	52.5	L 6 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/4	Army at UAB	-6.5	55.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Army vs Charlotte	-17.5	45.5	W 24 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/18	Army at Tulane	+10.0	44.5	L 17 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Army at Air Force	-1.5	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Army vs Temple	-7.5	45.5	W 14 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Army vs Tulsa	-10.0	43.5	L 25 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/29	Army at UTSA	+8.5	50.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13	Army vs Navy	+6.0	38.0	L 16 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/27	Army vs UConn	-5.5	41.5	W 41 - 16	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Army's Schedule

Air Force's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Air Force vs Bucknell	-31.0	54.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Air Force at Utah State	-4.0	51.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	Air Force vs Boise State	+10.5	51.5	L 37 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/27	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-7.0	52.5	L 35 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/4	Air Force at Navy	+13.5	50.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Air Force at UNLV	+7.0	65.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Air Force vs Wyoming	-4.0	56.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Air Force vs Army	+1.5	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/8	Air Force at San José State	+6.0	67.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Air Force at UConn	+7.5	64.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/22	Air Force vs New Mexico	+3.5	53.5	L 3 - 20	U	N
Fri 11/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-2.5	47.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARMY	#10 (.32)	51% (6)	23.8	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	278	43% (52)	76	4.47 (19)	#39 (.12)	43% (89)	21.6	45% (87)	43% (88)	2.57 (2)	30.5	0.6	1.4
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)	29.8	45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)	30.3	41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARMY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARMY Offense	14	23.8	20.8	50.7%	4.47	0.6	19	354	278	76	5.6	86%	14%	52%	43%	8%	.32
AFA Defense	12	30.3	27.8	41.7%	3.97	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	41%	43%	15%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARMY Defense	14	21.6	21.2	43.4%	2.57	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	43%	14%	.12
AFA Offense	12	29.8	27.5	42.1%	4.02	1.3	18	314	225	90	4	82%	18%	45%	31%	12%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Army	14	32:46	19.1	49%	77%	3.1	30.5	0.6	1.4	3.9	1.4	0	29.4
Air Force	12	33:58	17.9	42%	64%	3	28	1.3	1	4.3	1.5	0	28.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARMY Offense	14	86% (1)	52% (7)	49.9	277.8	5.6	44 (2)	.3 (9)	3.57 (5)	86% (3)	6% (2)	0.98 (60)
AFA Defense	12	56% (120)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.1 (56)	3.02 (73)	66% (28)	10% (63)	1.07 (101)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARMY Defense	14	47% (32)	45% (87)	-	-	-	-	.14 (79)	3.22 (100)	67% (29)	9% (92)	0.94 (46)
AFA Offense	12	82% (2)	45% (60)	55.7	224.7	4	24 (45)	.15 (60)	3.03 (68)	83% (11)	9% (55)	0.88 (112)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARMY Offense	14	14% (134)	43% (52)	4.6	8.1	75.9	9.4	16.6	10 (127)	4 (1)	.43 (8)	1.9 (4)	23% (1)	32% (56)	.31 (80)	2% (1)	1.7 (134)
AFA Defense	12	44% (16)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.33 (107)	1.6 (63)	31% (79)	30% (54)	.3 (63)	5% (120)	2 (60)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARMY Defense	14	52% (99)	43% (88)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.15 (30)	1.5 (25)	32% (68)	30% (57)	.29 (60)	5% (96)	2.1 (91)
AFA Offense	12	18% (133)	31% (131)	5.2	11.5	89.8	7.8	17.4	5 (134)	10 (63)	.09 (124)	2.1 (1)	27% (14)	25% (124)	.18 (111)	3% (2)	2.1 (66)

Army's Power Ratings
Army's Power Rating: -7.35 #86
Army's Offense Rating: 8.78 #94
Army's Defense Rating: 16.13 #88
2025 Talent Rating: 146.00 #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Army's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Army's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.8 #74
Army's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #85
Army's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Army: -7.35 Air Force: -2.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Army: 0.8 Air Force: -3.2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -2.87 #89
Air Force's Offense Rating: 12.58 #72
Air Force's Defense Rating: 20.12 #109
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Army Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.2

Army's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 25
Army 25

Projected Total Points: 50

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Air Force	17	Army	20	Army -1.5	Army	48.5	Under
2024	11/02	Army	20	Air Force	3	Army -18	Air Force	38.5	Under
2023	11/04	Air Force	3	Army	23	Air Force -18.5	Army	32.0	Under
2022	11/05	Army	7	Air Force	13	Air Force -7	Army	40.5	Under
2021	11/06	Air Force	14	Army	21	Air Force -2.5	Army	37.5	Under
2020	12/19	Army	10	Air Force	7	Air Force -3	Army	37.0	Under
2019	11/02	Air Force	17	Army	13	Air Force -17	Army	44.5	Under
2018	11/03	Army	17	Air Force	14	Army -4.5	Air Force	41.5	Under
2017	11/04	Air Force	0	Army	21	Air Force -6.5	Army	54.5	Under
2016	11/05	Army	12	Air Force	31	Air Force -3	Air Force	46.5	Under
2015	11/07	Air Force	20	Army	3	Air Force -17.5	Army	50.5	Under
2014	11/01	Army	6	Air Force	23	Air Force -5.5	Air Force	0
2013	11/02	Air Force	42	Army	28	Air Force -1.5	Air Force	0
2012	11/03	Army	41	Air Force	21
2011	11/05	Air Force	24	Army	14
2010	11/06	Army	22	Air Force	42
2009	11/07	Air Force	35	Army	7
2008	11/01	Army	7	Air Force	16
2007	11/03	Air Force	30	Army	10
2006	11/03	Army	7	Air Force	43
2005	11/05	Air Force	24	Army	27
2004	11/06	Army	22	Air Force	31
2003	11/08	Air Force	31	Army	3
2002	11/09	Army	30	Air Force	49
2001	11/03	Air Force	34	Army	24
2000	11/03	Army	27	Air Force	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	17	5	0 Overs
Army	9	8	11 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 14	3 - 10	1 - 7	2 - 3
Road Teams	14 - 12	10 - 3	3 - 2	7 - 1

(#86) ARMY at (#89) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARMY	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#86	#89
SP+SP+	#74	#80
Perf GradeGrade	#48	#40
OffenseOff	#11	#8
DefenseDef	#115	#117
Spec TeamsST	#58	#57
TalentTal	#135	#134
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Army Notes(11/29) Great win at UTSA to get bowl eligible. Navy game left
(8/30) Off decent, Def meh, mistakes in bad L vs Tar St
(8/24) QB1 D Coleman starter after E Washington inj
(5/19) QB Coleman, Hellums or Washington?
(5/17) Def returns a lot, but offense replacing most
(3/24) QB rebuild, Coleman some exp
(3/24) RB rebuild, Udoh gone (ASU). Have options
(3/24) WR rebuild, 3 career Rec. return.
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, depth some exp. Great LY
(3/24) Def was great LY, returns a lot. DL some size
(3/24) HC Monken incredible, 12 wins, AAC champs LY
Army Injury Report

Air Force Notes(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report

Army on Offense

Option Offense 85%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCat	ARMY Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#11	#117
SuccessSuc	#6	#68
ExplosiveExp	#132	#84
PPAPPA	#10	#88
PowerPwr	#94	#109
SP+SP+	#85	#101
Pts POPPO	#19	#84
HavocHav	#1	#86

Army Run Game

Option Offense 85%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCat	ARMY Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#99	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#47
Run ExplRExp	#60	#101
PPAExp	#9	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#1	#82
TackleTak	-	#46

Army Pass Game

Option Offense 85%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCat	ARMY Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#48	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	#52	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#4	#63
PPAExp	#8	#107
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#111	#52
F7 HavocF7	#2	#63
DB HavocDB	#1	#120

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	ARMY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#8	#115
SuccessSuc	#77	#89
ExplosiveExp	#134	#40
PPAPPA	#103	#39
PowerPwr	#72	#88
SP+SP+	#59	#53
Pts POPPO	#56	#2
HavocHav	#16	#100

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	ARMY Def
Run GameRun	#71	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	#60	#87
Run ExplRExp	#112	#46
PPAExp	#60	#79
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#100
Stuff RateStuff	#21	#92
TackleTak	-	#87

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	ARMY Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#98
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#88
Pass ExplPExl	#1	#25
PPAExp	#124	#30
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#96	#113
F7 HavocF7	#55	#92
DB HavocDB	#2	#96

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

ARMY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 44°

Rematch from Week 10
Army 1.5 (48.5)
Army won at Air Force this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Army beat Air Force last year (20-17)
Army beat Air Force in 2024 (20-3)
Army beat Air Force in 2023 (23-3)

ARMY's OC Cody Worley (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cale Hellums	47	87	54%	694	4	3	8.0
Dewayne Coleman	19	36	53%	273	2	2	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cale Hellums	305	1215	18	4.0	50
Noah Short	98	571	1	5.8	81
Hayden Reed	74	335	3	4.5	37
Dewayne Coleman	85	297	3	3.5	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Short	32	438	2	13.7	44
Bradyn Anderson	14	381	2	27.2	68
Samari Howard	11	133	1	12.1	41
Parker Poloskey	4	54	1	13.5	26

View Army's Full Roster

ARMY's DC Nate Woody (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andon Thomas	112	4	1	3	5
Kalib Fortner	83	8	2	8	0
Collin Matteson	79	2	0	2	7
Casey Larkin	69	3	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eric Ford	52	8	5	7	2
Jack Bousum	28	7	4	5	1
Cole Searight	23	4	2	0	1
Kalib Fortner	83	8	2	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Collin Matteson	79	2	0	2	7
Andon Thomas	112	4	1	3	5
Casey Larkin	69	3	0	1	3

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Liam Szarka	75	120	63%	1294	9	5	10.8
Josh Johnson	16	28	57%	374	4	2	13.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Liam Szarka	190	922	13	4.9	64
Owen Allen	131	749	5	5.7	43
Dylan Carson	91	419	4	4.6	64
Cade Harris	61	321	4	5.3	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	35	584	2	16.7	74
Bruin Fleischmann	21	370	6	17.6	68
Quin Smith	15	358	4	23.9	52
Jonah Dawson	12	260	1	21.7	53

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Fletcher	108	1	0	5	2
Roger Jones Jr.	76	1	0	1	0
Dallas Daley	45	1	0	1	3
Peyton Zdroik	36	6	1	9	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Hubert	30	11	5	7	1
Jackson Adams	17	4	3	3	2
Grady Forsythe	2	2	2	0	0
Jaylin Reese	10	1	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Korey Johnson	34	0	0	4
Dallas Daley	45	1	1	3
Blake Fletcher	108	1	5	2