Air Force at Navy - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Navy -13.5 (50.5) (-520) Open: -11.5
Navy 34 - Air Force: 31

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

NAVY 2nd straight Home Game
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Navy -7.5 (SP+ NAVY -9)
Projected Score: AFA: 24 - NAVY: 32 (56)
NAVY Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
AFA Travel: 1516 miles, 2 hrs behind

Midshipmen (11 - 2) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (38 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 2.8 (#20)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Air Force vs Bucknell	-31.0	54.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Air Force at Utah State	-4.0	51.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	Air Force vs Boise State	+10.5	51.5	L 37 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/27	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-7.0	52.5	L 35 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/4	Air Force at Navy	+13.5	50.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Air Force at UNLV	+7.0	65.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Air Force vs Wyoming	-4.0	56.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Air Force vs Army	+1.5	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/8	Air Force at San José State	+6.0	67.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Air Force at UConn	+7.5	64.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/22	Air Force vs New Mexico	+3.5	53.5	L 3 - 20	U	N
Fri 11/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-2.5	47.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Navy's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Navy vs VMI	-42.5	54.5	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Navy vs UAB	-20.5	59.0	W 38 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/13	Navy at Tulsa	-14.0	52.5	W 42 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Navy vs Rice	-14.0	45.5	W 21 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/4	Navy vs Air Force	-13.5	50.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/11	Navy at Temple	-10.0	52.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Navy vs Florida Atlantic	-14.5	63.5	W 42 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/1	Navy at North Texas	+6.5	68.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/8	Navy at Notre Dame	+30.5	54.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/15	Navy vs South Florida	+8.5	62.5	W 41 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27	Navy at Memphis	+3.5	57.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13	Navy vs Army	-6.0	38.0	W 17 - 16	U	N
Fri 1/2	Navy vs Cincinnati	-7.5	57.5	W 35 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)	29.8	45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)	30.3	41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
NAVY	#12 (.31)	44% (51)	31.5	46% (43)	3.27 (32)	231	39% (101)	117	4.39 (26)	#28 (.1)	41% (61)	25	46% (95)	37% (24)	3.48 (35)	41.9	1.1	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	12	29.8	32.2	42.1%	4.02	1.3	18	314	225	90	4	82%	18%	45%	31%	12%	.13
NAVY Defense	13	25	24.2	41.2%	3.48	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	46%	37%	14%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	12	30.3	32.8	41.7%	3.97	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	41%	43%	15%	.2
NAVY Offense	13	31.5	38	44.2%	4.39	1.1	16	347	231	117	5.5	74%	26%	46%	39%	11%	.31

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	12	33:58	17.9	42%	64%	3	28	1.3	1	4.3	1.5	0	28.6
Navy	13	27:47	16.2	39%	64%	4.8	41.9	1.1	1.8	4.2	1.8	3	31.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	12	82% (2)	45% (60)	55.7	224.7	4	24 (45)	.15 (60)	3.03 (68)	83% (11)	9% (55)	0.88 (112)
NAVY Defense	13	51% (77)	46% (95)	-	-	-	-	.16 (89)	3.27 (107)	77% (89)	9% (101)	0.92 (39)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	12	56% (120)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.1 (56)	3.02 (73)	66% (28)	10% (63)	1.07 (101)
NAVY Offense	13	74% (3)	46% (43)	42.3	230.7	5.5	35 (8)	.29 (10)	3.27 (32)	82% (15)	8% (28)	1.2 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	12	18% (133)	31% (131)	5.2	11.5	89.8	7.8	17.4	5 (134)	10 (63)	.09 (124)	2.1 (1)	27% (14)	25% (124)	.18 (111)	3% (2)	2.1 (66)
NAVY Defense	13	48% (57)	37% (24)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.07 (8)	1.5 (51)	31% (85)	25% (8)	.2 (30)	5% (89)	2.2 (112)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	12	44% (16)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.33 (107)	1.6 (63)	31% (79)	30% (54)	.3 (63)	5% (120)	2 (60)
NAVY Offense	13	26% (132)	39% (101)	7.1	12.8	116.7	9.1	16.5	15 (98)	6 (10)	.39 (15)	2 (3)	29% (26)	27% (110)	.4 (37)	3% (4)	2.5 (2)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -7.54 #90
Air Force's Offense Rating: 12.58 #72
Air Force's Defense Rating: 20.12 #110
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -7.54 Navy: 2.125

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.2 Navy: 6.2

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 2.125 #86
Navy's Offense Rating: 13.60 #64
Navy's Defense Rating: 20.55 #113
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 2.8
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2 #46
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #26
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Navy 32
Air Force 24

Projected Total Points: 56

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Navy	34	Air Force	31	Navy -13.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2024	10/05	Air Force	7	Navy	34	Navy -10	Navy	37.0	Over
2023	10/21	Navy	6	Air Force	17	Air Force -11	NA	34.0	Under
2022	10/01	Air Force	13	Navy	10	Air Force -14	Navy	38.0	Under
2021	09/11	Navy	3	Air Force	23	Air Force -6	Air Force	40.0	Under
2020	10/03	Air Force	40	Navy	7	Navy -6.5	Air Force	46.5	Over
2019	10/05	Navy	34	Air Force	25	Air Force -3	Navy	46.5	Over
2018	10/06	Air Force	35	Navy	7	Navy -2.5	Air Force	47.0	Under
2017	10/07	Navy	48	Air Force	45	Navy -8.5	Air Force	53.5	Over
2016	10/01	Air Force	28	Navy	14	Air Force -10.5	Air Force	50.5	Under
2015	10/03	Navy	33	Air Force	11	Navy -6	Navy	49.5	Under
2014	10/04	Air Force	30	Navy	21	Navy -4	Air Force	0
2013	10/05	Navy	28	Air Force	10	Navy -11	Navy	0
2012	10/06	Air Force	21	Navy	28
2011	10/01	Navy	34	Air Force	35
2010	10/02	Air Force	14	Navy	6
2009	10/03	Navy	16	Air Force	13
2008	10/04	Air Force	27	Navy	33
2007	09/29	Navy	31	Air Force	20
2006	10/07	Air Force	17	Navy	24
2005	10/08	Navy	27	Air Force	24
2004	09/30	Air Force	21	Navy	24
2003	10/04	Navy	28	Air Force	25
2002	10/05	Air Force	48	Navy	7
2001	10/06	Navy	18	Air Force	24
2000	10/06	Air Force	27	Navy	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	14	5	5 Overs
Air Force	12	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	17 - 9	7 - 5	3 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 17	5 - 7	2 - 4	3 - 3

(#90) AFA at (#86) NAVY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	NAVY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#90	#86
SP+SP+	#80	#46
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#62
OffenseOff	#8	#29
DefenseDef	#117	#111
Spec TeamsST	#57	#82
TalentTal	#134	#136
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Air Force Notes(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report

Navy Notes(11/28) A gauntlet November ends w/ 2-2 record. Impressive
(11/28) 2 straight wins w/ impressive Def improvement.
(11/16) Run over by ND, Horvath didn't play. Def ugly
(11/16) Come back and kill USF? Mids are wild, AAC threat
(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
Navy Injury Report

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#8	#111
SuccessSuc	#77	#61
ExplosiveExp	#134	#28
PPAPPA	#103	#28
PowerPwr	#72	#113
SP+SP+	#59	#72
Pts POPPO	#56	#35
HavocHav	#16	#104

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#71	#107
Run SuccessRSuc	#60	#95
Run ExplRExp	#112	#39
PPAExp	#60	#89
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#107
Stuff RateStuff	#21	#122
TackleTak	-	#133

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#24
Pass ExplPExl	#1	#51
PPAExp	#124	#8
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#55
F7 HavocF7	#55	#101
DB HavocDB	#2	#89

Navy on Offense

Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#29	#117
SuccessSuc	#51	#68
ExplosiveExp	#11	#84
PPAPPA	#12	#88
PowerPwr	#64	#110
SP+SP+	#26	#101
Pts POPPO	#26	#84
HavocHav	#6	#86

Navy Run Game

Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#25	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#47
Run ExplRExp	#7	#101
PPAExp	#10	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#32	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#82
TackleTak	-	#46

Navy Pass Game

Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#3	#63
PPAExp	#15	#107
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#115	#52
F7 HavocF7	#28	#63
DB HavocDB	#4	#120

Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Navy -13.5 (50.5)
Navy won vs Air Force this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Air Force last year (34-31)
Navy beat Air Force in 2024 (34-7)
Air Force beat Navy in 2023 (17-6)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Liam Szarka	75	120	63%	1294	9	5	10.8
Josh Johnson	16	28	57%	374	4	2	13.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Liam Szarka	190	922	13	4.9	64
Owen Allen	131	749	5	5.7	43
Dylan Carson	91	419	4	4.6	64
Cade Harris	61	321	4	5.3	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	35	584	2	16.7	74
Bruin Fleischmann	21	370	6	17.6	68
Quin Smith	15	358	4	23.9	52
Jonah Dawson	12	260	1	21.7	53

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Fletcher	108	1	0	5	2
Roger Jones Jr.	76	1	0	1	0
Dallas Daley	45	1	0	1	3
Peyton Zdroik	36	6	1	9	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Hubert	30	11	5	7	1
Jackson Adams	17	4	3	3	2
Grady Forsythe	2	2	2	0	0
Jaylin Reese	10	1	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Korey Johnson	34	0	0	4
Dallas Daley	45	1	1	3
Blake Fletcher	108	1	5	2

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Horvath	97	159	61%	1580	12	6	9.9
Braxton Woodson	9	19	47%	110	0	0	5.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Horvath	224	1200	16	5.4	59
Alex Tecza	158	902	10	5.7	76
Eli Heidenreich	77	499	3	6.5	25
Brandon Chatman	57	431	3	7.6	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	51	941	6	18.5	82
Brandon Chatman	17	159	0	9.4	27
Luke Hutchison	5	134	3	26.8	63
Cody Howard	4	128	1	32.0	65

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MarcAnthony Parker	97	7	2	4	0
Giuseppe Sessi	81	1	0	0	0
Luke Pirris	78	7	4	4	3
Coleman Cauley	78	3	0	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Robinson	64	8	6	7	0
Julian Moutome	42	8	4	2	3
Adam Klenk	33	5	4	5	1
Luke Pirris	78	7	4	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ira Oniha	24	1	0	0	7
Justin Ross	32	2	1	3	4
Luke Pirris	78	7	4	4	3