Air Force at Navy - 2025 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at Navy MidshipmenNavy logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD

 
Falcons (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 40 - 31 (30 - 49 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.2 - 7.8 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)
NAVY 2nd straight Home Game
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Navy -16.5   (SP+ NAVY -17)
Projected Score: AFA: 26 - NAVY: 43 (69)
NAVY Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
AFA Travel: 1516 miles, 2 hrs behind
Midshipmen (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 44 - 18 (45 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#40)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
 
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-31.054.5W 49 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-4.051.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i+1.5
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+16.5
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+13.5
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+3.5
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+6
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+18.5
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico-4.5
Sat 11/29 Air Force at Colorado State+8

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.5
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-16.5
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-12.5
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+5.5
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+19.5
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida-0.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+16
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-10.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#30 (.34)53% (21)39.557% (13)3.48 (27)26741% (83)1696.08 (4)#124 (.33)47% (116)3140% (76)54% (130)5.33 (128)45.51.51
NAVY#11 (.46)60% (5)4462% (4)3.87 (7)37750% (32)1185.05 (31)#74 (.14)38% (61)1833% (23)43% (89)3.73 (73)5711.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense239.53052.8%6.081.5234362671694.872%28%57%41%9%.34
NAVY Defense31815.538.1%3.731.7 - - - - - 43%56%33%43%17%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense2314946.9%5.331 - - - - - 52%48%40%54%14%.33
NAVY Offense3444559.8%5.051244953771186.883%17%62%50%9%.46

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force234:542352%100%4.545.51.515.54.5026.4
Navy334:1123.763%75%5.35711.75.33034.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense272% (5)57% (13)56266.54.88 (26).35 (22)3.48 (27)77% (45)5% (10)0.9 (87)
NAVY Defense343% (25)33% (23) - - - - .05 (64)2.44 (37)70% (71)10% (71)1.3 (123)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense252% (92)40% (76) - - - - .3 (127)3.29 (123)60% (34)10% (65)1.32 (125)
NAVY Offense383% (2)62% (4)55.7377.36.815 (1).45 (5)3.87 (7)86% (21)8% (47)1.03 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense228% (132)41% (83)8.51616910.619.92 (102)2 (60).31 (65)1.7 (33)26% (30)22% (118)-.04 (128)4% (35)1.1 (133)
NAVY Defense356% (113)43% (89) - - - - - - 3 (28).26 (86)1.3 (31)33% (70)31% (83).11 (31)7% (41)1.5 (18)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense248% (49)54% (130) - - - - - - 1 (87).38 (112)1.5 (57)29% (107)50% (134).89 (134)3% (116)2.1 (83)
NAVY Offense317% (135)50% (32)710.711811.116.93 (90)2 (60).49 (23)1.7 (24)19% (3)37% (34).47 (45)2% (4)1.9 (83)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -16.01 #119
Air Force's Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -16.01   Navy: 4.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -9.2   Navy: 7.8




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 4.135 #90
Navy's Offense Rating: 13.87 #62
Navy's Defense Rating: 18.40 #112
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #57

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 39.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 49

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Navy 43
Air Force 26

Total Points: 69

Navy Scoring
Offense: 44 PPG
Offense at Home: 45
Defense: 18 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.5

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Air Force7Navy34NavyNavy -10Navy37.0Over
202310/21Navy6Air Force17Air ForceAir Force -11NA34.0Under
202210/01Air Force13Navy10Air ForceAir Force -14Navy38.0Under
202109/11Navy3Air Force23Air ForceAir Force -6Air Force40.0Under
202010/03Air Force40Navy7Air ForceNavy -6.5Air Force46.5Over
201910/05Navy34Air Force25NavyAir Force -3Navy46.5Over
201810/06Air Force35Navy7Air ForceNavy -2.5Air Force47.0Under
201710/07Navy48Air Force45NavyNavy -8.5Air Force53.5Over
201610/01Air Force28Navy14Air ForceAir Force -10.5Air Force50.5Under
201510/03Navy33Air Force11NavyNavy -6Navy49.5Under
201410/04Air Force30Navy21Air ForceNavy -4Air Force0
201310/05Navy28Air Force10NavyNavy -11Navy0
201210/06Air Force21Navy28Navy
201110/01Navy34Air Force35Air Force
201010/02Air Force14Navy6Air Force
200910/03Navy16Air Force13Navy
200810/04Air Force27Navy33Navy
200709/29Navy31Air Force20Navy
200610/07Air Force17Navy24Navy
200510/08Navy27Air Force24Navy
200409/30Air Force21Navy24Navy
200310/04Navy28Air Force25Navy
200210/05Air Force48Navy7Air Force
200110/06Navy18Air Force24Air Force
200010/06Air Force27Navy13Air Force
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy1354 Overs
Air Force1266 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 97 - 43 - 24 - 2
Road Teams9 - 164 - 72 - 42 - 3

(#119) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -16.01 #119
Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8

Team Profile
Option Offense 72%, Pass: 28%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 6.08 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.33 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Awful Pass Def Success 54%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Air Force has lost 3 straight
Air Force has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Air Force Notes
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
(5/6) Started 0-7, finished 4-0 in 2024
(5/5) RB Carson/Allen back, FB Frew back. Avg
(5/5) WR top 2 back in Harris/Smith. Decent

Air Force Highlights
Air Force offense is efficent (#21)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good in red zone (#4)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force has a bad defense (#116)
Air Force gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#109)
Air Force Does Not Stuff Runs (#117)
Air Force has a bad defensive line (#123)
Air Force has a bad red zone defense (#128)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNAVYAFA
OverallOver#27#60
OffenseOff#20#21
DefenseDef#44#88
Special TeamsST#35#74
PassingPass#72#66
RushingRush#1#44
Run BlockRBLK#81#6
Pass BlockPBLK#14#61
Route RunningWR Rt#37#82
TacklingTkl#87#85
Run DefenseR Def#52#60
Pass Rush DefPRush#18#74
Coverage DefCov#50#107

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Air Force last year (34-7)
Air Force beat Navy in 2023 (17-6)
Air Force beat Navy in 2022 (13-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | NAVY
Depth Chart: AFA | NAVY
Rosters: AFA | NAVY
(#90) Navy Info
Power Rating: 4.135 #90
Offense Rating: 13.87 #62
Defense Rating: 18.40 #112
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #57
Talent Rating: 116.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9

Team Profile
Option Offense 83%, Pass: 17%
Great Offense Success Rate of 60%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.05 PPO
Great Run Success 62%
Good Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Good Run Def Success 33%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Navy has lost 1 straight
Navy has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Navy Notes
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
(5/25) DL very light, overall D very light (usual for Navy)
(5/25) DBs return 1 CB, rest have <150 snaps. Unclear
(5/25) OC Cronic was a revelation LY, has Horvath back
(5/25) Newberry incredible job, near top AAC LY
(5/25) ND game cost them Rice game, check USF TY
(3/24) Def some exp, always play tough, but size/speed

Navy Highlights
Navy in Undefeated
Navy is Undefeated at Home

Navy has Really Good Running Game (#1)
Navy offense is efficent (#5)
Navy has a top Offensive Line (#7)
Navy offense is good on 3rd downs
Navy does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#5)

Navy Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Navy has a good run defense (#23)
Navy defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Navy Deficiencies
Navy offense is not Explosive (#102)


  
Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Johnson91656%2242114.0
Liam Szarka81650%114017.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris1613828.649
Dylan Carson1910515.517
Christopher Frew660010.014
Owen Allen175613.314
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris5146129.262
Quin Smith385128.340
James Roberson480020.029
Bruin Fleischmann31906.37

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher220020
Roger Jones Jr.120000
Luke Fisher90010
Nick Beckwith90001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert64310
Jackson Adams52200
Grady Forsythe22200
Lukia Rawls Jr.52100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Beckwith90001
Houston Hendrix60001
Korey Johnson50001

Navy's OC Drew Cronic
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath182572%3283213.1
Braxton Woodson3743%26003.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Alex Tecza4527246.039
Blake Horvath4124536.035
Eli Heidenreich2420938.725
Braxton Woodson10194219.474
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich10126112.635
Luke Hutchison370223.363
Cody Howard165065.065
Joshua Guerin135035.035

View Navy's Full Roster
Navy's DC P.J. Volker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker204200
Landon Robinson194310
Luke Pirris192110
Griffen Willis141101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson194310
MarcAnthony Parker204200
Julian Moutome122221
Kendall Whiteside21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha70003
Justin Ross101102
Phillip Hamilton80002