Air Force at Navy Game Matchup
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at Navy MidshipmenNavy logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD

 
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
NAVY 2nd straight Home Game
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Navy -9.5   (SP+ NAVY -6)
Projected Score: AFA: 21 - NAVY: 31 (48)
NAVY Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
AFA Travel: 1516 miles, 2 hrs behind
Midshipmen (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (39 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#43)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Air Force vs Bucknell-11.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-1.5
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+19
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i-2
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+9.5
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+9
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming-4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+6
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+9.5
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+10.5
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico-7
Sat 11/29 Air Force at Colorado State+4.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Navy vs VMI-19
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-12.5
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.5
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-9.5
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-11
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-11.5
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas-0.5
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+33
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+3
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-1

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)18.945% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)23.341% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)31.346% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)22.246% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1218.919.242.1%4.021.31831422590482%18%45%31%12%.13
NAVY Defense1322.225.641.2%3.481.8 - - - - - 51%48%46%37%14%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1223.328.841.7%3.971 - - - - - 56%44%41%43%15%.2
NAVY Offense1331.338.844.2%4.391.1163472311175.574%26%46%39%11%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:5817.942%64%3281.314.31.5028.6
Navy1327:4716.239%64%4.841.91.11.84.21.8331.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1282% (2)45% (60)55.7224.7424 (45).15 (60)3.03 (68)83% (11)9% (55)0.88 (112)
NAVY Defense1351% (77)46% (95) - - - - .16 (89)3.27 (107)77% (89)9% (101)0.92 (39)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1256% (120)41% (47) - - - - .1 (56)3.02 (73)66% (28)10% (63)1.07 (101)
NAVY Offense1374% (3)46% (43)42.3230.75.535 (8).29 (10)3.27 (32)82% (15)8% (28)1.2 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1218% (133)31% (131)5.211.589.87.817.45 (134)10 (63).09 (124)2.1 (1)27% (14)25% (124).18 (111)3% (2)2.1 (66)
NAVY Defense1348% (57)37% (24) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (8)1.5 (51)31% (85)25% (8).2 (30)5% (89)2.2 (112)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1244% (16)43% (89) - - - - - - 4 (125).33 (107)1.6 (63)31% (79)30% (54).3 (63)5% (120)2 (60)
NAVY Offense1326% (132)39% (101)7.112.8116.79.116.515 (98)6 (10).39 (15)2 (3)29% (26)27% (110).4 (37)3% (4)2.5 (2)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -16.28 #113
Air Force's Offense Rating: 7.76 #107
Air Force's Defense Rating: 24.04 #116
2025 Talent Rating: 176.00 #133
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.3 #94
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #116
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #59

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 506.67
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -16.28   Navy: -2.19

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -7.3   Navy: -1.0




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -2.19 #89
Navy's Offense Rating: 12.66 #78
Navy's Defense Rating: 21.04 #104
2025 Talent Rating: 108.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #68
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #71

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 532.14
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Navy 31
Air Force 21

Projected Total Points: 48
Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Air Force7Navy34NavyNavy -10Navy37.0Over
202310/21Navy6Air Force17Air ForceAir Force -11NA34.0Under
202210/01Air Force13Navy10Air ForceAir Force -14Navy38.0Under
202109/11Navy3Air Force23Air ForceAir Force -6Air Force40.0Under
202010/03Air Force40Navy7Air ForceNavy -6.5Air Force46.5Over
201910/05Navy34Air Force25NavyAir Force -3Navy46.5Over
201810/06Air Force35Navy7Air ForceNavy -2.5Air Force47.0Under
201710/07Navy48Air Force45NavyNavy -8.5Air Force53.5Over
201610/01Air Force28Navy14Air ForceAir Force -10.5Air Force50.5Under
201510/03Navy33Air Force11NavyNavy -6Navy49.5Under
201410/04Air Force30Navy21Air ForceNavy -4Air Force0
201310/05Navy28Air Force10NavyNavy -11Navy0
201210/06Air Force21Navy28Navy
201110/01Navy34Air Force35Air Force
201010/02Air Force14Navy6Air Force
200910/03Navy16Air Force13Navy
200810/04Air Force27Navy33Navy
200709/29Navy31Air Force20Navy
200610/07Air Force17Navy24Navy
200510/08Navy27Air Force24Navy
200409/30Air Force21Navy24Navy
200310/04Navy28Air Force25Navy
200210/05Air Force48Navy7Air Force
200110/06Navy18Air Force24Air Force
200010/06Air Force27Navy13Air Force
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy1354 Overs
Air Force1266 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 97 - 43 - 24 - 2
Road Teams9 - 164 - 72 - 42 - 3

(#113) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.28 #113
Offense Rating: 7.76 #107
Defense Rating: 24.04 #116
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.3 #94
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #116
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #59
Talent Rating: 176.00 #133
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Air Force Notes
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
(5/6) Started 0-7, finished 4-0 in 2024
(5/5) RB Carson/Allen back, FB Frew back. Avg
(5/5) WR top 2 back in Harris/Smith. Decent
(5/5) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Bad LY, jump?
(5/5) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. DL small
(5/5) Expect Calhoun to bounce back after down '24
Air Force     Ratings Matchup     Navy
Power #113
#89
Off #107
#78
Def #116
#104
Talent #133
#136
SP+ #94
#68
SP+ Off #116
#58
SP+ Def #59
#71

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Air Force last year (34-7)
Air Force beat Navy in 2023 (17-6)
Air Force beat Navy in 2022 (13-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | NAVY
Depth Chart: AFA | NAVY
Rosters: AFA | NAVY
(#89) Navy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.19 #89
Offense Rating: 12.66 #78
Defense Rating: 21.04 #104
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #68
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #71
Talent Rating: 108.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Navy Notes
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
(5/25) DL very light, overall D very light (usual for Navy)
(5/25) DBs return 1 CB, rest have <150 snaps. Unclear
(5/25) OC Cronic was a revelation LY, has Horvath back
(5/25) Newberry incredible job, near top AAC LY
(5/25) ND game cost them Rice game, check USF TY
(3/24) Def some exp, always play tough, but size/speed


  
Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Quentin Hayes254358%4553210.6
Josh Johnson61443%126139.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Quentin Hayes12646673.730
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843
James Roberson596119.245

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher375221
Daniel Grobe305113
Luke Fisher221000
Aidan Swartz223111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peyton Zdroik187330
Blake Fletcher375221
Aidan Swartz223111
Daniel Grobe305113
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Grobe305113
Kyle Chen212002
Blake Fletcher375221

Navy's OC Drew Cronic
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath8013958%13531349.7
Braxton Woodson183650%243226.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath1761254177.195
Alex Tecza12355684.565
Eli Heidenreich6544436.860
Brandon Chatman4825035.220
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich39671617.274
Brandon Chatman18257414.346
Alex Tecza12229219.146
Nathan Kent10222222.277

View Navy's Full Roster
Navy's DC P.J. Volker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Luke Pirris686351
Landon Robinson616570
Jaxson Campbell585324
Kenneth McShan341030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson616570
Luke Pirris686351
Jaxson Campbell585324
MarcAnthony Parker82200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxson Campbell585324
Andrew Duhart292004
Ira Oniha121003