San José State at Stanford - 2025 Matchup Preview
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San José State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal

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Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Stanford -3 (49.5) (-148)  Open: -1.5
Stanford 30 - San José State: 29

 
Spartans (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
STAN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Stanford -8.5  (SP+ STAN -3)

Projected Score: SJSU: 21 - STAN: 29 (50)
STAN Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
SJSU Travel: 18 miles
Cardinal (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (6 - 18)
Avg Score : 19 - 29 (25 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+3.049.5L 29 - 30OY
Fri 10/3 San José State vs New Mexico-1.558.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming-1.550.5L 28 - 35ON
Fri 10/17 San José State at Utah State+3.063.5L 25 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.555.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6.067.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-10.049.5L 10 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+10.050.5L 3 - 25UN
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+3.546.0L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.555.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+28.545.5L 7 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5L 20 - 35ON
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+8.541.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+4.547.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+32.550.5L 20 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)21.441% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)32.542% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)18.841% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)29.245% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
STAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Offense1321.41743.9%3.62.222410883223.637%63%41%46%18%.18
STAN Defense1229.22646.6%4.531.3 - - - - - 43%57%45%48%14%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Defense1332.535.540.8%3.582.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%17%.1
STAN Offense1218.825.240.1%3.671.8193251341913.750%50%41%39%22%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San José State1326:2321.740%53%761.52.22.27.21.9228.5
Stanford1231:4118.535%56%5.4491.81.35.32.1228.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense1337% (131)41% (98)24.687.93.613 (105)-.06 (131)2.27 (133)70% (91)9% (57)0.81 (127)
STAN Defense1243% (4)45% (92) - - - - .11 (62)2.92 (53)68% (39)10% (58)0.99 (70)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense1353% (94)42% (66) - - - - .03 (21)2.71 (23)77% (96)11% (41)0.86 (16)
STAN Offense1250% (71)41% (95)36.3133.83.711 (116).08 (97)2.72 (116)66% (111)15% (131)1.01 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense1363% (3)46% (28)24.342.3321.87.613.231 (6)16 (124).33 (39)1.6 (74)30% (53)34% (46).38 (49)9% (131)2.1 (65)
STAN Defense1257% (131)48% (124) - - - - - - 9 (76).4 (125)1.6 (69)30% (96)34% (113).33 (85)4% (129)2 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense1347% (43)39% (47) - - - - - - 21 (1).19 (48)1.7 (105)34% (36)29% (45).24 (38)6% (56)2.1 (87)
STAN Offense1250% (64)39% (98)18.730.8191.36.210.318 (68)17 (127).13 (111)1.5 (120)32% (82)26% (116).22 (106)7% (102)2.1 (29)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -8.77  #95
San José State's Offense Rating: 10.64  #84
San José State's Defense Rating: 19.41  #103
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3  #118
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -8.77   Stanford: -2.995

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -14.3   Stanford: -11.8




Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -2.995  #66
Stanford's Offense Rating: 9.61  #90
Stanford's Defense Rating: 8.80  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8  #112
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4  #117
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Stanford 29
San José State 21


Projected Total Points: 50
Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.2
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Stanford30San José State29Stanford -3San José State49.5Over
202411/29San José State34Stanford31San José State -2.5San José State54.5Over
201309/07Stanford34San José State13Stanford -20Stanford0
201208/31Stanford20San José State17
201109/03Stanford57San José State3
200909/19Stanford42San José State17
200809/20Stanford23San José State10
200709/15Stanford37San José State0
200609/09San José State35Stanford34
200409/04Stanford43San José State3
200309/06Stanford31San José State10
200209/14Stanford63San José State26
200112/01San José State14Stanford41
200009/08Stanford27San José State40
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Stanford1112 Overs
San José State320 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 22 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams2 - 121 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#95) SJSU at (#66) STAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSJSUSTAN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #95 #66
SP+SP+ #118 #112
Perf GradeGrade #116 #120
OffenseOff #114 #121
DefenseDef #91 #109
Spec TeamsST #44 #36
TalentTal #117 #39
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #42
San José State Notes
(11/21) DC Derrick Odum fired after Nevada blowout
(10/18) Box score W in L @ USU, 534 yds, 8 flags + 1 TO diff
(10/18) Pass Def awful, torched for 300+ in 5 of last 6 games
(10/12) Loss @ Wyoming may end goals. Regressing hard
(9/6) Cannot kick FG, cost them opener vs CMU
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
San José State Injury Report
Stanford Notes
(11/28) Hired HC Tavita Pritchard, was QBC for Wash/NFL
(11/28) Great W over Cal, run defense great. Off was enough
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/22) QB Gulbranson inj vs FSU, ? for Miami game
(10/19) Huge W vs FSU, box score L but held on. 3-2 run now
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
Stanford Injury Report
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffSTAN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #114 #109
SuccessSuc #56 #119
ExplosiveExp #54 #103
PPAPPA #71 #120
PowerPwr #84 #36
SP+SP+ #108 #78
Pts POPPO #96 #124
HavocHav #110 #94
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #76 #66
Run SuccessRSuc #98 #92
Run ExplRExp #127 #70
PPAExp #131 #62
Run BlockR Blk #132 -
OL YdsOLY #133 #53
Stuff RateStuff #134 #29
TackleTak -  #116
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #102 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #124
Pass ExplPExl #74 #69
PPAExp #39 #125
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #117 #119
F7 HavocF7 #57 #58
DB HavocDB #131 #129
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSTAN OffSJSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #121 #91
SuccessSuc #101 #57
ExplosiveExp #98 #48
PPAPPA #114 #27
PowerPwr #90 #103
SP+SP+ #117 #115
Pts POPPO #92 #44
HavocHav #132 #47
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffSJSU Def
Run GameRun #73 #40
Run SuccessRSuc #95 #66
Run ExplRExp #52 #16
PPAExp #97 #21
Run BlockR Blk #120 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #23
Stuff RateStuff #127 #30
TackleTak -  #107
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSTAN OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePass #125 #127
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #47
Pass ExplPExl #120 #105
PPAExp #111 #48
Pass Block/RushP Blk #127 #96
F7 HavocF7 #131 #41
DB HavocDB #102 #56
Program Comparison
STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stanford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Stanford -3.0 (49.5)
Stanford won vs San José State this year (30-29)

Previous Matchups
Stanford beat San José State last year (30-29)
San José State beat Stanford in 2024 (34-31)

  
SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget23239359%30581797.8
Tama Amisone265052%205034.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Steve Chavez-Soto8744875.166
Lamar Radcliffe6634015.230
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Tama Amisone3416014.723
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)8812971014.772
Kyri Shoels59768213.043
Leland Smith (Tr)43695316.245
Jackson Canaan3331509.544

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard1085344
Taniela Latu656113
Noah McNeal-Franklin636132
Jaylen Thomas591006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)347471
Jordan Pollard1085344
Gafa Faga476350
Quincy Likio415210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Thomas591006
Jalen Bainer441105
Jordan Pollard1085344

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)14826057%18139107.0
Elijah Brown7412758%829426.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford14564344.475
Cole Tabb11444533.928
Sedrick Irvin4111812.915
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams60757612.636
Sam Roush49545211.169
Bryce Farrell28447216.068
Caden High (Tr)37414111.234

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose1068333
Scotty Edwards544311
Jahsiah Galvan502012
Jaivion Green383016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson336461
Matt Rose1068333
Ernest Cooper235301
Scotty Edwards544311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green383016
Brandon Nicholson271106
Collin Wright331004