San José State at Stanford - 2025 Matchup Preview
San José State logo San José State Spartans at Stanford CardinalStanford logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Stanford -3 (49.5) (-148)  Open: -1.5
Stanford 30 - San José State: 29

 
Spartans (2 - 4) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 24 - 29 (21 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#102)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
STAN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Stanford -6  (SP+ SJSU -1)

Projected Score: SJSU: 22 - STAN: 28 (50)
STAN Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
SJSU Travel: 18 miles
Cardinal (2 - 4) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Frank Reich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 30 (30 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.1 - 8.9 (#124)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+3.049.5L 29 - 30OY
Fri 10/3 San José State vs New Mexico-1.558.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming-1.550.5L 28 - 35ON
Fri 10/17 San José State at Utah State+3.563.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i+1
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force+3
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-6
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+22.5
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+1

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.552.5
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+36
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+18.5
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+5
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+30.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#64 (.2)44% (59)2444% (62)2.62 (112)10244% (57)3113.03 (127)#105 (.22)43% (94)29.242% (81)44% (100)4.08 (91)53.51.81.7
STAN#109 (.11)38% (120)18.838% (114)2.6 (116)9538% (106)2412.96 (129)#108 (.23)46% (115)30.246% (112)45% (108)3.39 (42)62.51.30.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)41% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)42% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)41% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)45% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Offense62421.344%3.031.820413102311438%62%44%44%15%.2
STAN Defense630.224.545.8%3.390.8 - - - - - 39%61%46%45%12%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Defense629.234.343.4%4.081.7 - - - - - 48%52%42%44%15%.22
STAN Offense618.83038.2%2.961.31833695241348%52%38%38%17%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San José State629:2220.344%33%6.253.51.81.742027.7
Stanford630:3718.233%69%762.51.30.842123.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense638% (132)44% (62)25.5101.746 (107).03 (109)2.62 (112)70% (87)7% (21)0.89 (101)
STAN Defense639% (2)46% (112) - - - - .04 (40)3.06 (102)80% (114)7% (126)0.8 (15)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense648% (48)42% (81) - - - - .1 (73)3.01 (91)70% (65)7% (124)0.91 (45)
STAN Offense648% (88)38% (114)31.794.735 (115).01 (118)2.6 (116)79% (31)11% (102)0.89 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense662% (5)44% (57)25.241.7310.87.512.413 (27)4 (50).33 (44)1.5 (91)33% (99)31% (65).2 (106)7% (116)1.6 (132)
STAN Defense661% (135)45% (108) - - - - - - 1 (128).35 (113)1.5 (74)33% (59)35% (118).32 (84)5% (106)1.7 (15)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense652% (93)44% (100) - - - - - - 6 (29).34 (109)1.7 (105)32% (68)27% (44).36 (92)7% (31)2.1 (104)
STAN Offense652% (49)38% (106)19.332.8240.87.312.56 (110)4 (50).23 (87)1.6 (62)32% (78)25% (112).16 (113)6% (87)1.7 (129)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -11.51  #117
San José State's Offense Rating: 7.36  #88
San José State's Defense Rating: 18.87  #120
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3  #103
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #84
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #117

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -11.51   Stanford: -4.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -9.3   Stanford: -10.2




Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -4.26  #85
Stanford's Offense Rating: 5.99  #96
Stanford's Defense Rating: 9.31  #75
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 3.1 - 8.9
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2  #108
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #106
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


San José State Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.3
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.3

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Stanford 28
San José State 22


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Stanford 29
San José State 20

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Stanford 28
San José State 25

Total Points: 53
Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.5

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Stanford30San José State29Stanford -3San José State49.5Over
202411/29San José State34Stanford31San José State -2.5San José State54.5Over
201309/07Stanford34San José State13Stanford -20Stanford0
201208/31Stanford20San José State17
201109/03Stanford57San José State3
200909/19Stanford42San José State17
200809/20Stanford23San José State10
200709/15Stanford37San José State0
200609/09San José State35Stanford34
200409/04Stanford43San José State3
200309/06Stanford31San José State10
200209/14Stanford63San José State26
200112/01San José State14Stanford41
200009/08Stanford27San José State40
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Stanford1112 Overs
San José State320 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 22 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams2 - 121 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#117) SJSU at (#85) STAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSJSUSTAN
Power RatePwr #117 #85
SP+SP+ #103 #108
Perf GradeGrade #109 #116
OffenseOff #102 #87
DefenseDef #98 #130
Spec TeamsST #48 #26
TalentTal #117 #39
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #42

San José State Notes
(10/12) Loss @ Wyoming may end goals. Regressing hard
(9/6) Cannot kick FG, cost them opener vs CMU
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
(5/4) OL 4/5 back, grades are rough. No portals?
(5/4) Def bad LY, 5 portals, LB Pollard a machine

Stanford Notes
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
(6/14) QB Brown, Rizk (UCF) some exp, #1 Daniels left
(5/2) TE Roush a reliable target, 70 catches past 2 yrs
(4/1) New HC Reich a one year interim HC
(3/25) HC Taylor fired by Luck for behavior issues
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffSTAN Def
Perf GradePerf #102 #130
SuccessSuc #59 #115
ExplosiveExp #61 #66
PPAPPA #64 #108
PowerPwr #88 #75
SP+SP+ #84 #99
Pts POPPO #127 #42
HavocHav #63 #124
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #76 #118
Run SuccessRSuc #62 #112
Run ExplRExp #101 #15
PPAExp #109 #40
Run BlockR Blk #135 -
OL YdsOLY #112 #102
Stuff RateStuff #126 #109
TackleTak -  #115
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #52 #121
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #108
Pass ExplPExl #91 #74
PPAExp #44 #113
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #113 #107
F7 HavocF7 #21 #126
DB HavocDB #116 #106
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatSTAN OffSJSU Def
Perf GradePerf #87 #98
SuccessSuc #120 #94
ExplosiveExp #67 #101
PPAPPA #109 #105
PowerPwr #96 #120
SP+SP+ #106 #117
Pts POPPO #129 #91
HavocHav #100 #101
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffSJSU Def
Run GameRun #62 #44
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #81
Run ExplRExp #102 #45
PPAExp #118 #73
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #91
Stuff RateStuff #83 #127
TackleTak -  #91
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatSTAN OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePass #101 #129
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #100
Pass ExplPExl #62 #105
PPAExp #87 #109
Pass Block/RushP Blk #111 #82
F7 HavocF7 #102 #124
DB HavocDB #87 #31
Program Comparison
STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stanford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 77°
Rematch from Week 5
Stanford -3.0 (49.5)
Stanford won vs San José State this year (30-29)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Stanford last year (34-31)

  
SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget14323162%18201337.9
Xavier Ward31030%15011.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Floyd Chalk IV3514124.016
Lamar Radcliffe3412403.616
Steve Chavez-Soto269623.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)50851817.072
Kyri Shoels34374211.035
Leland Smith (Tr)20277213.939
Jackson Canaan20209010.544

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard491142
Taniela Latu344112
Noah McNeal-Franklin322022
Jalen Apalit-Williams290013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)185431
Quincy Likio182200
Taniela Latu344112
Jireh Moe81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Thomas281005
Jalen Bainer241104
Jalen Apalit-Williams290013

STAN's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)11619659%1445647.4
Micah Ford010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford9140034.475
Cole Tabb3919415.017
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Sedrick Irvin155213.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams36412111.436
Bryce Farrell19381120.168
Sam Roush18219212.269
Caden High (Tr)15190012.734

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Jaivion Green241003
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson144331
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green241003
Matt Rose474112
Collin Wright220002