Stanford at Hawai'i - 2025 Matchup Preview
Stanford logo Stanford Cardinal at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsHawai
Saturday, August 23rd 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Hawai'i -1.5 (53.5) (-118)  Open: -1.5 | 53.5
Hawai'i 23 - Stanford: 20

 
Cardinal (2 - 4) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Frank Reich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 30 (13 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.1 - 8.9 (#124)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Wind: 23.9 MPH
Our Line: Hawai'i -2.5  (SP+ HAW -5)

Projected Score: STAN: 26 - HAW: 29 (55)
HAW Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
STAN Travel: 2400 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (5 - 2) (5 - 2 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 28 - 24 (30 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.552.5
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+36
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+18.5
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+5
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+30.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+3.052.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State-1
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+14
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+9
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming-1

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#109 (.11)38% (120)18.838% (114)2.6 (116)9538% (106)2412.96 (129)#108 (.23)46% (115)30.246% (112)45% (108)3.39 (42)62.51.30.8
HAW#98 (.14)41% (99)28.338% (119)2.73 (97)10242% (72)2953.84 (80)#53 (.13)40% (46)23.942% (69)38% (40)3.55 (55)641.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)41% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)45% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Offense618.813.338.2%2.961.31833695241348%52%38%38%17%.11
HAW Defense723.918.439.6%3.551 - - - - - 49%50%42%38%17%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Defense630.23345.8%3.390.8 - - - - - 39%61%46%45%12%.23
HAW Offense728.329.640.7%3.841.7223971022953.735%65%38%42%15%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Stanford630:3718.233%69%762.51.30.842123.7
Hawai'i732:3322.143%62%7.1641.715.12.1129
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Offense648% (88)38% (114)31.794.735 (115).01 (118)2.6 (116)79% (31)11% (102)0.89 (102)
HAW Defense749% (67)42% (69) - - - - .07 (58)3.14 (112)82% (121)11% (50)1.02 (91)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Defense639% (2)46% (112) - - - - .04 (40)3.06 (102)80% (114)7% (126)0.8 (15)
HAW Offense735% (136)38% (119)27.9101.93.74 (125)-.01 (126)2.73 (97)60% (120)8% (46)0.88 (107)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Offense652% (49)38% (106)19.332.8240.87.312.56 (110)4 (50).23 (87)1.6 (62)32% (78)25% (112).16 (113)6% (87)1.7 (129)
HAW Defense750% (62)38% (40) - - - - - - 5 (46).23 (65)1.5 (47)32% (60)28% (56).39 (105)6% (63)2.1 (90)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Defense661% (135)45% (108) - - - - - - 1 (128).35 (113)1.5 (74)33% (59)35% (118).32 (84)5% (106)1.7 (15)
HAW Offense765% (1)42% (72)29.146.1295.16.410.114 (22)8 (125).23 (89)1.5 (100)34% (119)31% (72).3 (78)7% (97)2.1 (46)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -3.32  #85
Stanford's Offense Rating: 5.99  #96
Stanford's Defense Rating: 9.31  #75
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 3.1 - 8.9
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2  #108
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #106
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -3.32   Hawai'i: -4.285

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -10.2   Hawai'i: -4.8




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -4.285  #104
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.22  #122
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 9.99  #78
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.8  #84
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.9  #97
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #73

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 13.3
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 29
Stanford 26


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Hawai'i 33
Stanford 30

Total Points: 63

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 30
Stanford 18

Total Points: 48
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.4

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/23Hawai'i23Stanford20Hawai'i -1.5Hawai'i53.5Under
202309/01Hawai'i24Stanford37Stanford -2Stanford54.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i111 Overs
Stanford111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1

(#85) STAN at (#104) HAW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSTANHAW
Power RatePwr #85 #104
SP+SP+ #108 #84
Perf GradeGrade #116 #106
OffenseOff #87 #121
DefenseDef #130 #56
Spec TeamsST #26 #98
TalentTal #39 #125
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #101

Stanford Notes
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
(6/14) QB Brown, Rizk (UCF) some exp, #1 Daniels left
(5/2) TE Roush a reliable target, 70 catches past 2 yrs
(4/1) New HC Reich a one year interim HC
(3/25) HC Taylor fired by Luck for behavior issues

Hawai'i Notes
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
(4/7) OL 4/5 back, good LY, some size/depth
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffHAW Def
Perf GradePerf #87 #56
SuccessSuc #120 #46
ExplosiveExp #67 #57
PPAPPA #109 #53
PowerPwr #96 #78
SP+SP+ #106 #73
Pts POPPO #129 #55
HavocHav #100 #51
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #62 #97
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #69
Run ExplRExp #102 #91
PPAExp #118 #58
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #112
Stuff RateStuff #83 #99
TackleTak -  #98
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #101 #28
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #40
Pass ExplPExl #62 #47
PPAExp #87 #65
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #111 #49
F7 HavocF7 #102 #50
DB HavocDB #87 #63
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 65%, Run: 35%
CategoryCatHAW OffSTAN Def
Perf GradePerf #121 #130
SuccessSuc #99 #115
ExplosiveExp #58 #66
PPAPPA #98 #108
PowerPwr #122 #75
SP+SP+ #97 #99
Pts POPPO #80 #42
HavocHav #65 #124
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 65%, Run: 35%
CategoryCat
HAW OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #118 #118
Run SuccessRSuc #119 #112
Run ExplRExp #107 #15
PPAExp #126 #40
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLY #97 #102
Stuff RateStuff #76 #109
TackleTak -  #115
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 65%, Run: 35%
CategoryCatHAW OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #92 #121
Pass SuccessPSuc #72 #108
Pass ExplPExl #100 #74
PPAExp #89 #113
Pass Block/RushP Blk #122 #107
F7 HavocF7 #46 #126
DB HavocDB #97 #106
Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 83° - Wind: 24 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Hawai'i -1.5 (53.5)
Hawai'i won vs Stanford this year (23-20)

Previous Matchups
Stanford beat Hawai'i in 2023 (37-24)

  
STAN's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)11619659%1445647.4
Micah Ford010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford9140034.475
Cole Tabb3919415.017
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Sedrick Irvin155213.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams36412111.436
Bryce Farrell19381120.168
Sam Roush18219212.269
Caden High (Tr)15190012.734

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Jaivion Green241003
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson144331
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green241003
Matt Rose474112
Collin Wright220002

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado14221865%1456956.7
Luke Weaver6110260%600535.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims6932324.743
Cam Barfield3313414.127
Luke Weaver277302.713
Micah Alejado455311.230
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Pofele Ashlock46468610.247
Jackson Harris (Tr)24358314.974
Brandon White (Tr)24255110.646
Landon Sims2320418.928

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma381114
Jamih Otis322020
Jalen Smith301001
Elijah Palmer294005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III134430
De'jon Benton (Tr)176340
Qwyn Williams (Tr)185310
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina205230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer294005
Peter Manuma381114
Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen180003