New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana Tech logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Louisiana Tech -10 (42.5) (-345)  Open: 0.0 | 42.5
Louisiana Tech 49 - New Mexico State: 14  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Temp: 93.9° (37% Hum)
Our Line: Louisiana Tech -11.5  (SP+ LT -14)

Projected Score: NMSU: 18 - LT: 30 (48)
LT Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
NMSU Travel: 821 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bulldogs (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (11 - 25)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (37 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.553.5L 20 - 38ON
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.553.5W 37 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.548.5L 27 - 30OY
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.551.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.553.5L 16 - 35UN
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.552.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.559.5L 9 - 42UY
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+4.044.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.552.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.550.5W 24 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.549.5L 7 - 23UY
Sat 9/13 Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.042.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 9/20 Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.051.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 9/27 Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.548.5W 30 - 11UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.546.5L 7 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.549.5L 27 - 28ON
Fri 10/31 Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.548.0W 55 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.557.5L 24 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.043.5L 3 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.545.5W 34 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.545.0W 42 - 30OY
Tue 12/30 Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.051.0W 23 - 14UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)27.643% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
LT#130 (.02)37% (119)27.337% (122)2.62 (125)10938% (111)2113.09 (124)#26 (.1)37% (13)20.839% (36)35% (11)3.72 (61)46.71.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.62039.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08
LT Defense1320.817.337.2%3.721.2 - - - - - 56%43%39%35%15%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1227.637.541.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
LT Offense1327.336.537.5%3.091.5173191092113.149%51%37%38%17%.02

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Louisiana Tech1329:3417.240%35%4.946.71.51.25.21.6033.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)
LT Defense1356% (121)39% (36) - - - - .09 (54)2.9 (50)70% (48)11% (52)1.01 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
LT Offense1349% (78)37% (122)35.2108.53.114 (98)-.09 (134)2.62 (125)66% (114)12% (116)0.69 (134)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)
LT Defense1343% (9)35% (11) - - - - - - 5 (117).15 (26)1.6 (72)35% (20)29% (46).28 (56)5% (112)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
LT Offense1351% (56)38% (111)18.829.8210.97.111.218 (68)7 (26).13 (115)1.7 (35)33% (103)26% (117).15 (127)5% (22)2.1 (27)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -18.16  #127
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60  #126
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 20.76  #114
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.5  #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7  #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -18.16   Louisiana Tech: -5.565

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.5   Louisiana Tech: -1.3




Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -5.565  #118
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 4.42  #119
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 19.25  #99
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00  #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3  #77
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #77
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0  #68

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Louisiana Tech 30
New Mexico State 18


Projected Total Points: 48
Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.5
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Louisiana Tech49New Mexico State14Louisiana Tech -10Louisiana Tech42.5Over
202410/15New Mexico State33Louisiana Tech30Louisiana Tech -12.5New Mexico State49.0Over
202310/24Louisiana Tech24New Mexico State27Louisiana Tech -3New Mexico State55.0Under
201210/27New Mexico State14Louisiana Tech28
201111/26Louisiana Tech44New Mexico State0
201011/13New Mexico State20Louisiana Tech41
200910/17Louisiana Tech45New Mexico State7
200811/22New Mexico State31Louisiana Tech35
200710/13Louisiana Tech22New Mexico State21
200612/02New Mexico State50Louisiana Tech23
200510/01Louisiana Tech34New Mexico State14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisiana Tech812 Overs
New Mexico State321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 42 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams4 - 71 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#127) NMSU at (#118) LT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSULT
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #127 #118
SP+SP+ #123 #77
Perf GradeGrade #112 #83
OffenseOff #127 #108
DefenseDef #76 #37
Spec TeamsST #23 #32
TalentTal #132 #122
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79
New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report
Louisiana Tech Notes
(11/10) QB1 Blake Baker out for season (torn ACL)
(10/22) Criminal clock management costly vs WKU
(10/22) QB Baker torched WKU for 340 yds and 49 rushing
(10/22) Most penalized team in CUSA, Def good but leaking
(10/21) QB1 Blake Baker, JAG w/ some mobility
(10/10) Give Cumbie 2 weeks he gets routed by Kennesaw St
(10/9) Lead CFB w/ 13 TOs & 5 Def TD. Allow 14 ppg
(9/21) Shockingly good start, box score ugly vs SMiss
(9/21) Off 2-13 on 3rd down, 2.7 ypc vs S Miss and won?
(9/17) Played hard vs LSU, Def great in red zone early
(5/20) OC Franklin - a legend of tempo, simplicity
(5/2) TE Eli Finley a good target, best on team
Louisiana Tech Injury Report
New Mexico State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLT Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #127 #37
SuccessSuc #106 #13
ExplosiveExp #95 #57
PPAPPA #119 #26
PowerPwr #126 #99
SP+SP+ #112 #68
Pts POPPO #82 #61
HavocHav #112 #76
New Mexico State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLT Def
Run GameRun #135 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #41 #36
Run ExplRExp #61 #82
PPAExp #81 #54
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #50
Stuff RateStuff #28 #41
TackleTak -  #80
New Mexico State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLT Def
Pass GamePass #99 #25
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #11
Pass ExplPExl #17 #72
PPAExp #128 #26
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #123 #108
F7 HavocF7 #103 #52
DB HavocDB #104 #112
Louisiana Tech on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLT OffNMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #108 #76
SuccessSuc #119 #64
ExplosiveExp #113 #127
PPAPPA #130 #115
PowerPwr #119 #114
SP+SP+ #77 #120
Pts POPPO #124 #60
HavocHav #83 #128
Louisiana Tech Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LT OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #33 #98
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #69
Run ExplRExp #134 #95
PPAExp #134 #98
Run BlockR Blk #128 -
OL YdsOLY #125 #93
Stuff RateStuff #119 #66
TackleTak -  #42
Louisiana Tech Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLT OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #120 #63
Pass SuccessPSuc #111 #68
Pass ExplPExl #35 #132
PPAExp #115 #118
Pass Block/RushP Blk #67 #57
F7 HavocF7 #116 #134
DB HavocDB #22 #78
Program Comparison
LT 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joe Aillet Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 94°
Rematch from Week 3
Louisiana Tech -10.0 (42.5)
Louisiana Tech won vs New Mexico State this year (49-14)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana Tech beat New Mexico State last year (49-14)
New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech in 2024 (33-30)
New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (27-24)

  
NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)20336156%223211126.2
Adam Damante7010467%711546.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)11745033.829
Dijon Stanley (Tr)7329724.157
Isaiah Rudison4215823.836
Tyler King (Tr)81802.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donovan Faupel61661710.855
Tyler King (Tr)41588314.364
Gavin Harris (Tr)36514114.334
Glynn Johnson Jr27335312.440

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Tory Gethers875312
Sone Aupiu686134
Jamall Thompson618440
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)41115102
Jamall Thompson618440
Tory Gethers875312
Ta'Avili Tuitama194230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown173006
Stilton McKelvey182005

LT's OC Tony Franklin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Baker10215566%1252538.1
Trey Kukuk6710663%644346.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Clay Thevenin13163484.850
Trey Kukuk9860956.258
Andrew Burnette9448695.298
Omiri Wiggins9746844.837
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Finley38445011.773
Marlion Jackson20370218.552
Devin Gandy (Tr)21366217.442
Clay Thevenin3326908.230

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Jeremiah Johnson (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Fields903015
Mekhi Mason6215434
Jadon Mayfield619451
Sifa Leota5812478
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Mayfield619451
Sifa Leota5812478
Mekhi Mason6215434
Donovan Rieman295301
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhamal Shelby Jr.472009
Sifa Leota5812478
Cedric Woods341018