New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana Tech logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Louisiana Tech -10 (42.5) (-345)  Open: 0.0 | 42.5
Louisiana Tech 49 - New Mexico State: 14  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 18 - 22 (14 - 49 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: Louisiana Tech -9.5   (SP+ LT -12)
Projected Score: NMSU: 17 - LT: 27 (44)
LT Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
NMSU Travel: 821 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bulldogs (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (11 - 25)
Avg Score : 27 - 12 (37 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#49)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+2
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-7
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+14.5
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State-6.5
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+13
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State-7.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+39.5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+9.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-10.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.550.5W 24 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.549.5L 7 - 23UY
Sat 9/13 Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.042.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 9/20 Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.051.5
Sat 9/27 Louisiana Tech at UTEP+2.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-9
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky+1
Tue 10/28 Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-14
Sat 11/8 Louisiana Tech at Delaware+1.5
Sat 11/15 Louisiana Tech at Washington State+2
Sat 11/22 Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+2.5
Sat 11/29 Louisiana Tech at Missouri State-8.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#111 (.08)35% (128)1822% (136)1.43 (136)4843% (73)2533.33 (104)#19 (-.03)33% (22)2223% (4)44% (99)2.13 (18)73.31.71.3
LT#129 (-.01)38% (109)26.745% (66)2.18 (127)18130% (128)1493.43 (99)#24 (-.01)39% (67)12.336% (48)43% (93)1.45 (6)93.70.32.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
LT#130 (.02)37% (119)37% (122)2.62 (125)10938% (111)2113.09 (124)#26 (.1)37% (13)39% (36)35% (11)3.72 (61)46.71.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense3181434.5%3.331.717301482531.940%59%22%43%15%.08
LT Defense312.3739.1%1.452.3 - - - - - 50%49%36%43%25%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense3224932.9%2.131.3 - - - - - 50%49%23%44%16%-.03
LT Offense326.736.537.6%3.430.3183301811494.451%49%45%30%19%-.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State327:5016.734%100%7.773.31.71.36.31.7028.8
Louisiana Tech330:151840%50%9.393.70.32.38.33029.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense340% (124)22% (136)25481.91 (127)-.26 (136)1.43 (136)75% (52)10% (91)0.81 (104)
LT Defense350% (65)36% (48) - - - - -.07 (30)2.71 (62)63% (43)15% (16)1.1 (97)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense350% (66)23% (4) - - - - -.22 (5)2.19 (20)43% (10)9% (91)1.05 (91)
LT Offense351% (70)45% (66)41.3181.34.44 (79)-.03 (113)2.18 (127)100% (1)12% (117)0.75 (120)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense359% (14)43% (73)19.736.3253.3712.95 (54)3 (92).28 (70)1.5 (72)43% (135)27% (98).29 (80)5% (72)2.2 (41)
LT Defense349% (63)43% (93) - - - - - - 5 (6).13 (48)1.2 (18)35% (52)33% (93).31 (82)10% (11)2 (71)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense349% (57)44% (99) - - - - - - 4 (12).18 (57)1.2 (20)37% (30)20% (25).04 (24)8% (30)2.1 (88)
LT Offense349% (66)30% (128)13.321.71496.911.24 (72)1 (23).02 (127)1.2 (125)34% (107)16% (131)- (123)7% (104)2 (72)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -9.72 #105
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 1.27 #128
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.99 #85
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.5 #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #123
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #125

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -9.72   Louisiana Tech: -4.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -18.5   Louisiana Tech: -6.1




Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -4.785 #103
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: -0.42 #134
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 8.05 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.1 #90
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #114
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #64

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 18 PPG
Offense on Road: 14
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 49

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Louisiana Tech 27
New Mexico State 17


Total Points: 44

Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 26.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.5
Defense: 12.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Louisiana Tech49New Mexico State14Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech -10Louisiana Tech42.5Over
202410/15New Mexico State33Louisiana Tech30New Mexico StateLouisiana Tech -12.5New Mexico State49.0Over
202310/24Louisiana Tech24New Mexico State27New Mexico StateLouisiana Tech -3New Mexico State55.0Under
201210/27New Mexico State14Louisiana Tech28Louisiana Tech
201111/26Louisiana Tech44New Mexico State0Louisiana Tech
201011/13New Mexico State20Louisiana Tech41Louisiana Tech
200910/17Louisiana Tech45New Mexico State7Louisiana Tech
200811/22New Mexico State31Louisiana Tech35Louisiana Tech
200710/13Louisiana Tech22New Mexico State21Louisiana Tech
200612/02New Mexico State50Louisiana Tech23New Mexico State
200510/01Louisiana Tech34New Mexico State14Louisiana Tech
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisiana Tech812 Overs
New Mexico State321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 42 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams4 - 71 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#105) New Mexico State Info
Power Rating: -9.72 #105
Offense Rating: 1.27 #128
Defense Rating: 10.99 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.5 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #123
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #125
Talent Rating: 306.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Awful Run Success 22%
Bad Pass Success 43%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 33%
Great in Scoring Position 2.13 PPO
Great Run Def Success 23%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

New Mexico State has won 2 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico State Notes
(7/15) RB Calloway good in '23 (Cal), 3 P4 portals
(7/12) QB Fife (Mont) QB1 over Awad, who had exp LY
(7/12) Def bad LY, returns some. 8 portal DL adds
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother

New Mexico State Highlights
New Mexico State offense is explosive (#29)
New Mexico State has a really good defense (#22)
New Mexico State defense is really good in red zone (#18)
New Mexico State has a good run defense (#4)
New Mexico State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#23)
New Mexico State Defensive Line is very good (#20)
New Mexico State Secondary is very good (#30)
New Mexico State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

New Mexico State Deficiencies
New Mexico State has a really bad Offense
New Mexico State has a bad TO Margin (#107)
New Mexico State Can Not Run the Ball (#136)
New Mexico State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
New Mexico State offense is really bad (#128)
New Mexico State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#136)
New Mexico State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#104)
New Mexico State run game is really bad (#136)
New Mexico State offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatLTNMSU
OverallOver#41#78
OffenseOff#46#100
DefenseDef#48#67
Special TeamsST#28#25
PassingPass#91#87
RushingRush#5#106
Run BlockRBLK#25#75
Pass BlockPBLK#98#115
Route RunningWR Rt#85#41
TacklingTkl#38#106
Run DefenseR Def#44#81
Pass Rush DefPRush#82#51
Coverage DefCov#32#58

Rematch from Week 3
Louisiana Tech -10.0 (42.5)
Louisiana Tech won vs New Mexico State this year (49-14)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech last year (33-30)
New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (27-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joe Aillet Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | LT
Depth Chart: NMSU | LT
Rosters: NMSU | LT
(#103) Louisiana Tech Info
Power Rating: -4.785 #103
Offense Rating: -0.42 #134
Defense Rating: 8.05 #71
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.1 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #64
Talent Rating: 472.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.43 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 39%
Great in Scoring Position 1.45 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Louisiana Tech has lost 1 straight
Louisiana Tech has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Louisiana Tech Notes
(5/20) OC Franklin - a legend of tempo, simplicity
(5/2) TE Eli Finley a good target, best on team
(3/24) QB Bullock back, JAG. Baker depth
(3/24) RB Wiggins has exp. No portals? Yikes
(3/24) WR rebuild, some exp. 2 portal adds
(3/24) OL awful LY, 3/5 back. 2 FCS portals
(3/24) Def played well LY, loses a ton. 3 portals?
(3/24) HC Cumbie is killing this program.

Louisiana Tech Highlights
Louisiana Tech is Undefeated vs Spread
Louisiana Tech is Undefeated at Home
Louisiana Tech is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Louisiana Tech Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Louisiana Tech defense is really good in red zone (#6)
Louisiana Tech Front 7 is disruptive (#16)
Louisiana Tech Secondary is very good (#11)
Louisiana Tech has a great TO Margin (#11)
Louisiana Tech defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Louisiana Tech Deficiencies
Louisiana Tech Commits a Lot of Penalties (#131)
Louisiana Tech offense is really bad (#109)
Louisiana Tech offense is not Explosive (#133)
Louisiana Tech pass game is really bad (#128)


  
New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)5810854%756537.0
Glynn Johnson Jr11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)245812.417
Dijon Stanley (Tr)184702.613
Logan Fife (Tr)233701.614
Isaiah Rudison4501.34
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Glynn Johnson Jr13211216.240
Donovan Faupel13177113.655
Gavin Harris (Tr)9130114.434
Brodrick Malone568113.641

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez241013
Jamall Thompson226210
Naeten Mitchell210000
Sone Aupiu202101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamall Thompson226210
Sone Aupiu202101
Tory Gethers173100
Ezra Christensen (Tr)143132
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez241013
Nicolas Sessions150002
Ezra Christensen (Tr)143132

Louisiana Tech's OC Tony Franklin
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trey Kukuk284070%224215.6
Blake Baker112446%228209.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Clay Thevenin2415116.333
Blake Baker2111615.538
Trey Kukuk2510404.224
Omiri Wiggins227213.317
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Gandy (Tr)378126.033
Eli Finley87709.623
David Pierro364021.356
Marques Singleton Jr.95806.413

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster
Louisiana Tech's DC Luke Olson
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kolbe Fields292100
Mekhi Mason237301
Sifa Leota174022
Jacob Fields161003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mekhi Mason237301
Jadon Mayfield93200
Kameron Carter41100
Christian Davis41100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhamal Shelby Jr.101005
Jacob Fields161003
Sifa Leota174022