New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana Tech logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Louisiana Tech -10 (42.5) (-345)  Open: 0.0 | 42.5
Louisiana Tech 49 - New Mexico State: 14  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (3 - 5) (3 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 21 - 25 (19 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Temp: 93.9° (37% Hum)
Our Line: Louisiana Tech -12  (SP+ LT -16)

Projected Score: NMSU: 16 - LT: 28 (44)
LT Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
NMSU Travel: 821 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bulldogs (5 - 4) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (11 - 25)
Avg Score : 28 - 19 (37 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 4.4 (#48)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.553.5L 20 - 38ON
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.553.5W 37 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.548.5L 27 - 30OY
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.551.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.553.5L 16 - 35UN
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.552.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+33
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+7
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-8.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.550.5W 24 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.549.5L 7 - 23UY
Sat 9/13 Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.042.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 9/20 Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.051.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 9/27 Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.548.5W 30 - 11UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.546.5L 7 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.549.5L 27 - 28ON
Fri 10/31 Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.548.0W 55 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.556.5L 24 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 Louisiana Tech at Washington State+3
Sat 11/22 Louisiana Tech vs Liberty-6
Sat 11/29 Louisiana Tech at Missouri State-7.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#128 (.04)36% (126)21.431% (136)2.13 (127)6939% (97)2333.06 (123)#25 (.06)41% (74)25.437% (23)47% (121)3 (17)62.31.82.1
LT#94 (.13)42% (76)28.144% (63)2.76 (80)15739% (100)1733.42 (105)#11 (.02)37% (18)18.935% (12)38% (38)2.29 (4)661.11.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
LT#130 (.02)37% (119)37% (122)2.62 (125)10938% (111)2113.09 (124)#26 (.1)37% (13)39% (36)35% (11)3.72 (61)46.71.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense821.419.335.8%3.061.818302692332.540%58%31%39%21%.04
LT Defense918.915.236.6%2.291.7 - - - - - 44%56%35%38%21%.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense825.43841.5%32.1 - - - - - 49%49%37%47%16%.06
LT Offense928.13742.2%3.421.1183291571734.455%44%44%39%15%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State828:3417.940%38%6.862.31.82.15.81.9130.5
Louisiana Tech926:2017.641%40%6.8661.11.75.31.4529.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense840% (130)31% (136)2868.62.55 (132)-.11 (136)2.13 (127)77% (37)10% (100)0.94 (76)
LT Defense944% (12)35% (12) - - - - -.04 (14)1.77 (4)57% (10)10% (66)1.22 (132)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense849% (51)37% (23) - - - - -.1 (9)2.81 (78)74% (86)9% (76)0.89 (38)
LT Offense955% (31)44% (63)35.3156.84.416 (88).08 (80)2.76 (80)75% (47)10% (74)0.91 (90)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense858% (11)39% (97)19.335.5232.96.612.110 (86)9 (34).17 (100)1.5 (94)37% (133)26% (109).24 (95)11% (136)2 (51)
LT Defense956% (126)38% (38) - - - - - - 13 (4).11 (23)1.5 (75)35% (17)33% (109).29 (77)11% (1)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense849% (71)47% (121) - - - - - - 10 (31).25 (79)1.4 (18)32% (72)25% (18).12 (13)7% (37)2.2 (118)
LT Offense944% (108)39% (100)15.423.8172.67.311.27 (121)6 (34).21 (87)1.6 (54)31% (67)25% (114).21 (101)6% (70)2.2 (20)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -8.68  #107
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60  #110
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 11.28  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.0  #121
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #124
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3  #107

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -8.68   Louisiana Tech: 0.315

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.0   Louisiana Tech: 1.0




Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: 0.315  #90
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 0.17  #126
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 5.54  #55
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00  #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 4.4
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0  #67
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #96
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0  #41

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.3
Defense: 25.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Louisiana Tech 28
New Mexico State 16


Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisiana Tech 22
New Mexico State 20

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
Louisiana Tech 32
New Mexico State 19

Total Points: 51
Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 37
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Louisiana Tech49New Mexico State14Louisiana Tech -10Louisiana Tech42.5Over
202410/15New Mexico State33Louisiana Tech30Louisiana Tech -12.5New Mexico State49.0Over
202310/24Louisiana Tech24New Mexico State27Louisiana Tech -3New Mexico State55.0Under
201210/27New Mexico State14Louisiana Tech28
201111/26Louisiana Tech44New Mexico State0
201011/13New Mexico State20Louisiana Tech41
200910/17Louisiana Tech45New Mexico State7
200811/22New Mexico State31Louisiana Tech35
200710/13Louisiana Tech22New Mexico State21
200612/02New Mexico State50Louisiana Tech23
200510/01Louisiana Tech34New Mexico State14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisiana Tech812 Overs
New Mexico State321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 42 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams4 - 71 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#107) NMSU at (#90) LT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSULT
Power RatePwr #107 #90
SP+SP+ #121 #67
Perf GradeGrade #114 #57
OffenseOff #127 #78
DefenseDef #65 #34
Spec TeamsST #17 #38
TalentTal #132 #122
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79
New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report
Louisiana Tech Notes
(10/22) Criminal clock management costly vs WKU
(10/22) QB Baker torched WKU for 340 yds and 49 rushing
(10/22) Most penalized team in CUSA, Def good but leaking
(10/21) QB1 Blake Baker, JAG w/ some mobility
(10/10) Give Cumbie 2 weeks he gets routed by Kennesaw St
(10/9) Lead CFB w/ 13 TOs & 5 Def TD. Allow 14 ppg
(9/21) Shockingly good start, box score ugly vs SMiss
(9/21) Off 2-13 on 3rd down, 2.7 ypc vs S Miss and won?
(9/17) Played hard vs LSU, Def great in red zone early
(5/20) OC Franklin - a legend of tempo, simplicity
(5/2) TE Eli Finley a good target, best on team
(3/24) QB Bullock back, JAG. Baker depth
Louisiana Tech Injury Report
New Mexico State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLT Def
Perf GradePerf #127 #34
SuccessSuc #126 #18
ExplosiveExp #44 #127
PPAPPA #128 #11
PowerPwr #110 #55
SP+SP+ #124 #41
Pts POPPO #123 #4
HavocHav #133 #6
New Mexico State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLT Def
Run GameRun #134 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #136 #12
Run ExplRExp #76 #132
PPAExp #136 #14
Run BlockR Blk #108 -
OL YdsOLY #127 #4
Stuff RateStuff #133 #11
TackleTak -  #64
New Mexico State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLT Def
Pass GamePass #99 #32
Pass SuccessPSuc #97 #38
Pass ExplPExl #94 #75
PPAExp #100 #23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #130 #109
F7 HavocF7 #100 #66
DB HavocDB #136 #1
Louisiana Tech on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatLT OffNMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #78 #65
SuccessSuc #76 #74
ExplosiveExp #105 #33
PPAPPA #94 #25
PowerPwr #126 #88
SP+SP+ #96 #107
Pts POPPO #105 #17
HavocHav #70 #65
Louisiana Tech Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
LT OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #14 #81
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #23
Run ExplRExp #90 #38
PPAExp #80 #9
Run BlockR Blk #105 -
OL YdsOLY #80 #78
Stuff RateStuff #76 #40
TackleTak -  #53
Louisiana Tech Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatLT OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #111 #56
Pass SuccessPSuc #100 #121
Pass ExplPExl #54 #18
PPAExp #87 #79
Pass Block/RushP Blk #69 #67
F7 HavocF7 #74 #76
DB HavocDB #70 #37
Program Comparison
LT 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joe Aillet Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 94°
Rematch from Week 3
Louisiana Tech -10.0 (42.5)
Louisiana Tech won vs New Mexico State this year (49-14)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech last year (33-30)
New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (27-24)

  
NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)15228154%1825996.5
Glynn Johnson Jr11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)8029833.729
Dijon Stanley (Tr)379602.613
Isaiah Rudison258413.411
Logan Fife (Tr)654310.724
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donovan Faupel39476312.255
Gavin Harris (Tr)27381114.134
Tyler King (Tr)15235015.754
Glynn Johnson Jr16227314.240

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell631003
Tory Gethers605302
Nicolas Sessions472002
Jamall Thompson447320
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)318562
Jamall Thompson447320
Tory Gethers605302
Cole Schnettgoecke152221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown113005
Sone Aupiu415103
Josiah Charles240003

LT's OC Tony Franklin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Baker9814866%1211538.2
Trey Kukuk294367%235225.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Clay Thevenin8443965.250
Omiri Wiggins7436244.937
Blake Baker7126133.738
Andrew Burnette3718435.066
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Finley25334013.473
Devin Gandy (Tr)18312217.342
Marlion Jackson15264117.642
Marques Singleton Jr.2114116.715

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Luke Olson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Fields552003
Sifa Leota407146
Mekhi Mason4010403
Kolbe Fields393210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mekhi Mason4010403
Jadon Mayfield324330
Kolbe Fields393210
Donovan Rieman214201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhamal Shelby Jr.282009
Sifa Leota407146
Cedric Woods191005