Tulsa at New Mexico State Game Matchup

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Aggie Memorial Stadium - Las Cruces, NM

Golden Hurricane (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tre Lamb (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 43 (21 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 9)

NMSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: New Mexico State -1.5 (SP+ TLSA -0.5)
Projected Score: TLSA: 31 - NMSU: 33 (63)
NMSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
TLSA Travel: 672 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#105)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

Matchup
Schedules
TLSA Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Tulsa vs Abilene Christian	-6
Sat 9/6	Tulsa at New Mexico State	+1.5
Sat 9/13	Tulsa vs Navy	+10.5
Sat 9/20	Tulsa at Oklahoma State	+19.5
Sat 9/27	Tulsa vs Tulane	+18.5
Sat 10/4	Tulsa at Memphis	+22
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16	Tulsa at East Carolina	+12.5
Sat 10/25	Tulsa vs Temple	-3
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Tulsa at Florida Atlantic	+6.5
Sat 11/15	Tulsa vs Oregon State	+12
Sat 11/22	Tulsa at Army	+17
Sat 11/29	Tulsa vs UAB	+0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	New Mexico State vs Bryant	-5
Sat 9/6	New Mexico State vs Tulsa	-1.5
Sat 9/13	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+5
Thu 10/2	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-1
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	New Mexico State at Liberty	+21.5
Wed 10/22	New Mexico State vs Missouri State	-2
Sat 11/1	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+9.5
Sat 11/8	New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State	-4.5
Sat 11/15	New Mexico State at Tennessee	+38.5
Sat 11/22	New Mexico State at UTEP	+7.5
Sat 11/29	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA	#124 (.06)	34% (131)	25	35% (128)	2.88 (97)	151	33% (126)	239	3.54 (100)	#127 (.31)	42% (75)	42.5	38% (23)	46% (115)	4.7 (130)	51	1.9	1.3
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)	21.6	46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)	36.3	43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Offense	12	25	21.3	34.1%	3.54	1.9	20	390	151	239	4	47%	53%	35%	33%	18%	.06
NMSU Defense	12	36.3	34.8	41.3%	3.7	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	43%	40%	12%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Defense	12	42.5	40.3	42.2%	4.7	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	46%	15%	.31
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	30.5	39.3%	3.8	1.9	19	322	179	143	4.4	58%	42%	46%	30%	18%	.08

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tulsa	12	29:44	20.4	37%	32%	5.9	51	1.9	1.3	6.6	1.5	3	28.9
New Mexico State	12	29:26	19.3	38%	38%	5.4	48.1	1.9	0.8	3.8	1.2	1	27

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense	12	47% (93)	35% (128)	37.5	151.4	4	11 (116)	-.03 (125)	2.88 (97)	74% (65)	12% (110)	0.9 (102)
NMSU Defense	12	50% (55)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.18 (98)	3.17 (93)	58% (5)	7% (134)	1.04 (95)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense	12	48% (40)	38% (23)	-	-	-	-	.11 (65)	2.82 (40)	69% (42)	11% (42)	1.2 (130)
NMSU Offense	12	58% (20)	46% (41)	41.3	179.3	4.4	16 (90)	.11 (81)	3.33 (21)	77% (37)	11% (103)	0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense	12	53% (43)	33% (126)	20.7	36.4	238.6	6.6	11.5	23 (41)	12 (85)	.16 (104)	1.8 (21)	34% (116)	22% (131)	.17 (118)	6% (77)	2.2 (16)
NMSU Defense	12	50% (76)	40% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.36 (118)	1.9 (132)	31% (80)	29% (42)	.42 (107)	6% (78)	2.3 (126)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense	12	52% (97)	46% (115)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.51 (131)	1.9 (133)	32% (64)	33% (100)	.45 (118)	4% (130)	2.3 (132)
NMSU Offense	12	42% (116)	30% (132)	11.8	26.7	143.2	5.4	12.2	12 (118)	12 (85)	.05 (128)	1.8 (17)	33% (100)	30% (87)	.13 (131)	7% (104)	1.7 (132)

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -19.65 #122
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 3.21 #125
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 22.86 #108
2025 Talent Rating: 558.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #82
Tulsa's 2025 Expected Record: 3.5 - 8.5
Tulsa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6 #120
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #103
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 532.14
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -19.65 New Mexico State: -16.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -15.6 New Mexico State: -16.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -16.24 #130
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.3
Defense: 42.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.3

Tulsa's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 33
Tulsa 31

Projected Total Points: 63

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2001	10/06	Tulsa	7	New Mexico State	24	New Mexico State
2000	10/13	New Mexico State	42	Tulsa	28	New Mexico State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	2	0	0 Overs
Tulsa	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#122) Tulsa Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -19.65 #122
Offense Rating: 3.21 #125
Defense Rating: 22.86 #108
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6 #120
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124
Talent Rating: 558.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #82
Expected Record: 3.5 - 8.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 34%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.54 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.7 PPO
Good Run Def Success 38%
Awful Pass Def Success 46%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Tulsa Notes
(5/23) QB Francis, meh LY but was a Fr. Depth??
(5/23) RB rebuild. 4 portals, nothing special looking
(5/23) WR complete rebuild. 5 good looking portals
(5/23) OL bad LY, 1/5 back, 8 portal adds, some exp
(5/23) Def awful LY, return some, 12 meh portals
(5/23) New HC Lamb a fast riser, ETSU LY, G. Webb
(3/24) Roster looks rough, year 0 situation

Tulsa Ratings Matchup New Mexico State

Power #122

#130

Off #125

#124

Def #108

#119

Talent #91

#131

SP+ #120

#122

SP+ Off #103

#106

SP+ Def #124

#124

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TLSA | NMSU
Depth Chart: TLSA | NMSU
Rosters: TLSA | NMSU

(#130) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.24 #130
Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124
Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.8 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

New Mexico State Notes
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) QB Fife (Mont), Awad started late LY
(3/26) RB McGowan good, 2 P4 portals added
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) Def bad LY, returns some. 6 portal DL adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother

Tulsa's OC Ty Darlington

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kirk Francis	149	253	59%	1585	9	6	6.3
Stephen Kittleman	3	3	100%	51	0	0	17.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Viron Ellison Jr.	62	353	1	5.7	32
Ajay Allen (Tr)	24	183	2	7.6	56
Sevion Morrison (Tr)	27	164	2	6.1	38
Dominic Richardson (Tr)	31	109	0	3.5	10

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zion Steptoe	15	203	0	13.5	34
Grayson Tempest	16	138	0	8.6	43
CJ Johnson II	11	121	0	11.0	23
Viron Ellison Jr.	14	90	1	6.4	23

View Tulsa's Full Roster

Tulsa's DC Mike Gray

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Drew	45	1	0	0	2
Chris Thompson Jr.	44	5	1	1	0
Buddha Garrett	38	1	0	0	3
Nunu Campbell	38	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J'Dan Burnett (Tr)	21	3	3	2	1
Joah Cash (Tr)	16	3	2	1	1
Ashton Williams	19	2	1	0	0
Chris Thompson Jr.	44	5	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Keuan Parker	20	0	4
Buddha Garrett	38	1	3
Jordan Drew	45	1	2

New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Logan Fife (Tr)	157	246	64%	1781	13	2	7.2
Parker Awad	74	159	47%	1079	7	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	26	124	1	4.8	60
Logan Fife (Tr)	52	120	5	2.3	22
Larenzo McMillan	7	111	1	15.9	84
Parker Awad	60	109	1	1.8	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Pride	34	374	2	11.0	53
Glynn Johnson Jr	19	346	2	18.2	54
Tyler King (Tr)	17	236	0	13.9	36
Gavin Harris (Tr)	11	173	1	15.7	60

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1
Sone Aupiu	55	4	0	2	5
Dakerric Hobbs	36	3	0	1	6
Nicolas Sessions	30	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1
Gabe Peterson (Tr)	6	1	1	0	0
Larry Jones III (Tr)	5	1	1	2	0
Glynn Johnson Jr	2	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dakerric Hobbs	36	3	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	2	5
Nicolas Sessions	30	1	0	3