Tulsa at New Mexico State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Tulsa logo Tulsa Golden Hurricane at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico State logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Tulsa -3.0 (52.5) (-130)  Open: -2.5 | 53.5
New Mexico State 21 - Tulsa: 14

 
Golden Hurricane (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tre Lamb (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
NMSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Tulsa -2.5  (SP+ TLSA -4)

Projected Score: TLSA: 29 - NMSU: 26 (55)
TLSA Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TLSA Travel: 672 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aggies (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (23 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
 
Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tulsa vs Abilene Christian-5.059.5W 35 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Tulsa at New Mexico State-3.052.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 9/13 Tulsa vs Navy+14.052.5L 23 - 42ON
Fri 9/19 Tulsa at Oklahoma State+10.554.5W 19 - 12UY
Sat 9/27 Tulsa vs Tulane+14.552.5L 14 - 31UN
Sat 10/4 Tulsa at Memphis+21.054.5L 7 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16 Tulsa at East Carolina+16.554.5L 27 - 41OY
Sat 10/25 Tulsa vs Temple+4.552.5L 37 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Tulsa at Florida Atlantic+4.560.5L 21 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Tulsa vs Oregon State-1.550.5W 31 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Tulsa at Army+10.043.5W 26 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Tulsa vs UAB-9.056.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.553.5L 20 - 38ON
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.553.5W 37 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.548.5L 27 - 30OY
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.551.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.553.5L 16 - 35UN
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.552.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.559.5L 9 - 42UY
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+4.044.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.552.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA#104 (.11)40% (97)23.242% (86)2.87 (81)17638% (104)2233.34 (104)#61 (.15)43% (82)28.942% (64)44% (99)3.78 (77)38.21.60.9
NMSU#124 (.05)37% (123)21.633% (135)2.13 (134)7740% (92)2503.21 (113)#41 (.11)42% (72)27.641% (54)44% (106)3.29 (36)54.421.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA#124 (.06)34% (131)35% (128)2.88 (97)15133% (126)2393.54 (100)#127 (.31)42% (75)38% (23)46% (115)4.7 (130)511.91.3
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Offense1223.21940.4%3.341.6223991762234.451%47%42%38%17%.11
NMSU Defense1227.617.742%3.291.9 - - - - - 50%48%41%44%16%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Defense1228.930.742.5%3.780.9 - - - - - 56%43%42%44%13%.15
NMSU Offense1221.623.236.7%3.21220328772502.639%59%33%40%20%.05

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tulsa1228:3322.238%57%5.138.21.60.95.31.9027.4
New Mexico State1230:0520.342%41%6.254.421.951.5128.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense1251% (57)42% (86)40.41764.418 (107).05 (102)2.87 (81)60% (127)11% (112)1.03 (47)
NMSU Defense1250% (60)41% (54) - - - - (15)2.99 (92)71% (69)9% (106)0.92 (46)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense1256% (127)42% (64) - - - - .06 (48)2.92 (76)67% (36)9% (99)0.94 (58)
NMSU Offense1239% (130)33% (135)29.777.42.69 (132)-.09 (135)2.13 (134)69% (88)11% (106)0.91 (88)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense1247% (82)38% (104)20.134.1222.56.511.115 (86)10 (108).15 (114)1.5 (104)32% (79)28% (88).26 (88)6% (78)1.9 (105)
NMSU Defense1248% (64)44% (106) - - - - - - 15 (31).26 (77)1.5 (42)31% (69)27% (28).23 (47)7% (24)2.1 (103)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense1243% (14)44% (99) - - - - - - 7 (55).28 (86)1.5 (53)29% (115)31% (91).28 (67)4% (131)1.8 (15)
NMSU Offense1259% (7)40% (92)2339.3250.36.410.917 (86)16 (34).17 (111)1.4 (109)36% (130)27% (108).2 (106)10% (136)1.9 (100)

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -5.71  #90
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 2.30  #113
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 8.01  #69
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Tulsa's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Tulsa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.2  #110
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #108
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4  #107

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -5.71   New Mexico State: -10.82

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -11.2   New Mexico State: -15.2




New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -10.82  #117
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60  #108
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 14.04  #105
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2  #124
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #113
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #119

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Tulsa's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Tulsa 29
New Mexico State 26


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico State 39
Tulsa 27

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico State 26
Tulsa 22

Total Points: 48
New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.2
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06New Mexico State21Tulsa14Tulsa -3.0New Mexico State52.5Under
200110/06Tulsa7New Mexico State24
200010/13New Mexico State42Tulsa28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico State310 Overs
Tulsa001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 20 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#90) TLSA at (#117) NMSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTLSANMSU
Power RatePwr #90 #117
SP+SP+ #110 #124
Perf GradeGrade #57 #110
OffenseOff #99 #125
DefenseDef #16 #61
Spec TeamsST #71 #29
TalentTal #87 #132
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Tulsa Notes
(11/22) Great fight & finish beating Oregon St & Army
(9/19) Physically dominating Ok St up front both sides
(9/19) Aggressive 4th down Off, QB2 Hayes can play
(9/19) Big program win over OK St. Lamb great job
(9/19) QB1 Kirk Francis out vs OK St (concussion)
(5/23) QB Francis, meh LY but was a Fr. Depth??
(5/23) RB rebuild. 4 portals, nothing special looking
(5/23) WR complete rebuild. 5 good looking portals
(5/23) OL bad LY, 1/5 back, 8 portal adds, some exp
(5/23) Def awful LY, return some, 12 meh portals
(5/23) New HC Lamb a fast riser, ETSU LY, G. Webb
(3/24) Roster looks rough, year 0 situation
Tulsa Injury Report
New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report
Tulsa on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffNMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #99 #61
SuccessSuc #97 #72
ExplosiveExp #60 #46
PPAPPA #104 #41
PowerPwr #113 #105
SP+SP+ #108 #119
Pts POPPO #104 #36
HavocHav #104 #70
Tulsa Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #37 #92
Run SuccessRSuc #86 #54
Run ExplRExp #47 #46
PPAExp #102 #15
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLY #81 #92
Stuff RateStuff #125 #60
TackleTak -  #47
Tulsa Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #112 #41
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #106
Pass ExplPExl #104 #42
PPAExp #114 #77
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #103 #47
F7 HavocF7 #112 #106
DB HavocDB #78 #24
New Mexico State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatNMSU OffTLSA Def
Perf GradePerf #125 #16
SuccessSuc #123 #82
ExplosiveExp #57 #41
PPAPPA #124 #61
PowerPwr #108 #69
SP+SP+ #113 #107
Pts POPPO #113 #77
HavocHav #133 #121
New Mexico State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffTLSA Def
Run GameRun #135 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #135 #64
Run ExplRExp #88 #58
PPAExp #135 #48
Run BlockR Blk #95 -
OL YdsOLY #134 #76
Stuff RateStuff #134 #79
TackleTak -  #4
New Mexico State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatNMSU OffTLSA Def
Pass GamePass #98 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #92 #99
Pass ExplPExl #109 #53
PPAExp #111 #86
Pass Block/RushP Blk #125 #37
F7 HavocF7 #106 #99
DB HavocDB #136 #131
Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

TLSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 74° - Wind: 5 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Tulsa 3.0 (52.5)
New Mexico State won vs Tulsa this year (21-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
TLSA's OC Ty Darlington (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Baylor Hayes (Tr)18631659%21591266.8
Kirk Francis538860%493345.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)212106555.057
Ajay Allen (Tr)9749755.140
Braylin Presley3221516.728
Baylor Hayes (Tr)9518832.024
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brody Foley (Tr)36521714.572
Zion Booker (Tr)4641829.140
Grayson Tempest22272112.451
Zion Steptoe21272013.042

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Mike Gray (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ray Coney (Tr)1287242
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)792004
Zach Williams731007
William Alexander661010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Dan Burnett (Tr)2810711
Byron Turner Jr. (Tr)147511
Ty Cooper (Tr)257311
Nahki Johnson (Tr)277300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Williams731007
Elijah Green592007
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)792004

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)20336156%223211126.2
Adam Damante7010467%711546.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)11745033.829
Dijon Stanley (Tr)7329724.157
Isaiah Rudison4215823.836
Tyler King (Tr)81802.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donovan Faupel61661710.855
Tyler King (Tr)41588314.364
Gavin Harris (Tr)36514114.334
Glynn Johnson Jr27335312.440

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Tory Gethers875312
Sone Aupiu686134
Nicolas Sessions613013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)41115102
Jamall Thompson618440
Tory Gethers875312
Ta'Avili Tuitama194230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown173006
Stilton McKelvey182005