Sam Houston at New Mexico State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Sam Houston logo   Sam Houston Bearkats at New Mexico State Aggies  New Mexico State logo
Thursday, October 2nd 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Sam Houston -1.5 (53.5) (-120)  Open: 0.0 | 51.5
New Mexico State 37 - Sam Houston: 10  (Conference USA)

 
Bearkats (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
SHSU coming off BYE
Our Line: New Mexico State -12.5  (SP+ NMSU -12)

Projected Score: SHSU: 20 - NMSU: 32 (52)
SHSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
SHSU Travel: 668 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aggies (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (23 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
 
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.560.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.558.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.047.5L 20 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Sam Houston at Texas+39.551.5L 0 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.553.5L 10 - 37UN
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.053.5L 27 - 29OY
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.546.5L 17 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/31 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.548.0L 14 - 55ON
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.052.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.556.5W 26 - 23UY
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.553.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.550.5L 16 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.553.5L 20 - 38ON
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.553.5W 37 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.548.5L 27 - 30OY
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.551.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.553.5L 16 - 35UN
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.552.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.559.5L 9 - 42UY
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+4.044.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.552.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)17.841% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)37.847% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)27.643% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense1317.815.139.3%2.971.2193491801684.357%43%41%38%15%.1
NMSU Defense1227.617.741.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense1337.83941.8%3.842.1 - - - - - 51%48%47%37%17%.11
NMSU Offense1221.623.239.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston1332:1018.839%67%4.637.91.22.15.42.2230.4
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense1357% (25)41% (100)42.5180.44.321 (59).1 (83)3.18 (44)68% (104)10% (69)0.9 (98)
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense1351% (74)47% (105) - - - - .17 (92)3.37 (119)75% (75)10% (56)0.83 (9)
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense1343% (113)38% (105)16.726.8168.26.310.115 (98)9 (48).13 (114)1.5 (106)30% (51)24% (126).13 (130)5% (47)2 (95)
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense1348% (60)37% (27) - - - - - - 16 (10).06 (6)1.4 (9)32% (57)25% (11).21 (32)6% (58)1.8 (12)
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -25.75  #136
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 1.86  #130
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 27.61  #137
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00  #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -27.8  #135
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #129
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.8  #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -25.75   New Mexico State: -14.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -27.8   New Mexico State: -15.5




New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -14.33  #128
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60  #127
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 20.76  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.5  #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7  #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.1
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico State 32
Sam Houston 20


Projected Total Points: 52
New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.2
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/02New Mexico State37Sam Houston10Sam Houston -1.5New Mexico State53.5Under
202409/21Sam Houston31New Mexico State11Sam Houston -15.5Sam Houston44.5Under
202310/11New Mexico State27Sam Houston13New Mexico State -4.5New Mexico State43.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico State220 Overs
Sam Houston113 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 03 - 02 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 30 - 10 - 2

(#136) SHSU at (#128) NMSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSHSUNMSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #136 #128
SP+SP+ #135 #123
Perf GradeGrade #134 #112
OffenseOff #135 #127
DefenseDef #128 #76
Spec TeamsST #47 #23
TalentTal #121 #132
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Sam Houston Notes
(10/10) Def could not hold vs Jax St, QB Watson is tough
(10/3) Hilarious mistakes vs NMSU, no wonder still 0 wins
(10/3) Def awful, Off somehow worse. Longo grade F-
(8/30) QB Watson cannot run this system, big issue
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
Sam Houston Injury Report
New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report
Sam Houston on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffNMSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #135 #76
SuccessSuc #107 #64
ExplosiveExp #127 #127
PPAPPA #115 #115
PowerPwr #130 #115
SP+SP+ #129 #120
Pts POPPO #129 #60
HavocHav #53 #128
Sam Houston Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #122 #98
Run SuccessRSuc #100 #69
Run ExplRExp #98 #95
PPAExp #83 #98
Run BlockR Blk #125 -
OL YdsOLY #44 #93
Stuff RateStuff #34 #66
TackleTak -  #42
Sam Houston Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #122 #63
Pass SuccessPSuc #105 #68
Pass ExplPExl #106 #132
PPAExp #114 #118
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #83 #57
F7 HavocF7 #69 #134
DB HavocDB #47 #78
New Mexico State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatNMSU OffSHSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #127 #128
SuccessSuc #106 #70
ExplosiveExp #95 #3
PPAPPA #119 #31
PowerPwr #127 #137
SP+SP+ #112 #135
Pts POPPO #82 #75
HavocHav #112 #58
New Mexico State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #135 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #41 #105
Run ExplRExp #61 #9
PPAExp #81 #92
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #119
Stuff RateStuff #28 #129
TackleTak -  #122
New Mexico State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatNMSU OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #99 #124
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #27
Pass ExplPExl #17 #9
PPAExp #128 #6
Pass Block/RushP Blk #123 #125
F7 HavocF7 #103 #56
DB HavocDB #104 #58
Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
Sam Houston 1.5 (53.5)
New Mexico State won vs Sam Houston this year (37-10)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston last year (37-10)
Sam Houston beat New Mexico State in 2024 (31-11)
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston in 2023 (27-13)

  
SHSU's OC Zack Patterson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson10418257%1108546.1
Landyn Locke7114150%765445.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landan Brown8448755.863
Elijah Green (Tr)5839126.780
Alton McCaskill (Tr)8837114.252
Hunter Watson7427623.755
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Reed30460515.354
Grady O'Neill (Tr)38392110.329
Landan Brown3723706.424
Tim Burns Jr.12228119.059

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Fish (Tr)786110
CJ Brown (Tr)642004
Tyler Bailey451102
Cecil Powell (Tr)424014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christopher Eaton Jr. (Tr)269550
Chauncey Chidi314300
Dean Ford326220
Dylan Frazier414222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emon Allen404005
Cecil Powell (Tr)424014
AJ Edwards413114

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)20336156%223211126.2
Adam Damante7010467%711546.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)11745033.829
Dijon Stanley (Tr)7329724.157
Isaiah Rudison4215823.836
Tyler King (Tr)81802.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donovan Faupel61661710.855
Tyler King (Tr)41588314.364
Gavin Harris (Tr)36514114.334
Glynn Johnson Jr27335312.440

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Tory Gethers875312
Sone Aupiu686134
Jamall Thompson618440
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)41115102
Jamall Thompson618440
Tory Gethers875312
Ta'Avili Tuitama194230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown173006
Stilton McKelvey182005