Sam Houston at New Mexico State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Sam Houston logo Sam Houston Bearkats at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico State logo
Thursday, October 2nd 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Sam Houston -1.5 (53.5) (-120)  Open: 0.0 | 51.5
New Mexico State 37 - Sam Houston: 10  (Conference USA)

 
Bearkats (0 - 8) (1 - 7 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 41 (14 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0.8 - 11.2 (#135)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
SHSU coming off BYE
Our Line: New Mexico State -15.5  (SP+ NMSU -13)

Projected Score: SHSU: 18 - NMSU: 33 (51)
SHSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
SHSU Travel: 668 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aggies (3 - 5) (3 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 21 - 25 (24 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
 
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.560.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.558.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.047.5L 20 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Sam Houston at Texas+39.551.5L 0 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.553.5L 10 - 37UN
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.053.5L 27 - 29OY
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.546.5L 17 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/31 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.548.0L 14 - 55ON
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.052.5
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware+12
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+9.5
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International+10

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.553.5L 20 - 38ON
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.553.5W 37 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.548.5L 27 - 30OY
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.551.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.553.5L 16 - 35UN
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.552.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+33
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+7
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#122 (.05)38% (118)16.641% (89)2.27 (120)13937% (116)1832.71 (130)#122 (.25)48% (130)40.946% (109)52% (135)4.36 (115)58.81.31.4
NMSU#128 (.04)36% (126)21.431% (136)2.13 (127)6939% (97)2333.06 (123)#25 (.06)41% (74)25.437% (23)47% (121)3 (17)62.31.82.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)41% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)47% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense816.613.638.5%2.711.3173221391834.444%55%41%37%19%.05
NMSU Defense825.412.841.5%32.1 - - - - - 49%49%37%47%16%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense840.94548.2%4.361.4 - - - - - 53%45%46%52%13%.25
NMSU Offense821.423.535.8%3.061.818302692332.540%58%31%39%21%.04

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston829:0216.622%24%6.558.81.31.44.81.1125.3
New Mexico State828:3417.940%38%6.862.31.82.15.81.9130.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense844% (110)41% (89)31.9138.54.47 (122).1 (70)2.27 (120)69% (82)13% (127)1.11 (16)
NMSU Defense849% (51)37% (23) - - - - -.1 (9)2.81 (78)74% (86)9% (76)0.89 (38)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense853% (105)46% (109) - - - - .14 (103)2.62 (56)63% (26)9% (76)1.02 (95)
NMSU Offense840% (130)31% (136)2868.62.55 (132)-.11 (136)2.13 (127)77% (37)10% (100)0.94 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense855% (27)37% (116)18.431.5183.35.8108 (103)6 (60).03 (128)1.3 (127)37% (132)23% (131)-.02 (135)7% (96)1.8 (112)
NMSU Defense849% (71)47% (121) - - - - - - 10 (31).25 (79)1.4 (18)32% (72)25% (18).12 (13)7% (37)2.2 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense845% (27)52% (135) - - - - - - 4 (100).45 (131)1.6 (83)27% (131)39% (133).31 (83)4% (127)1.8 (31)
NMSU Offense858% (11)39% (97)19.335.5232.96.612.110 (86)9 (34).17 (100)1.5 (94)37% (133)26% (109).24 (95)11% (136)2 (51)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -22.47  #136
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 0.53  #122
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 23.00  #132
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00  #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 0.8 - 11.2
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -27.6  #135
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.9  #133
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.1  #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -22.47   New Mexico State: -9.34

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -27.6   New Mexico State: -15.0




New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -9.34  #107
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60  #110
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 11.28  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.0  #121
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #124
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3  #107

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 13.6
Defense: 40.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 45

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 8
Record vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico State 33
Sam Houston 18


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico State 31
Sam Houston 16

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico State 33
Sam Houston 17

Total Points: 50
New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.5
Defense: 25.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.8

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/02New Mexico State37Sam Houston10Sam Houston -1.5New Mexico State53.5Under
202409/21Sam Houston31New Mexico State11Sam Houston -15.5Sam Houston44.5Under
202310/11New Mexico State27Sam Houston13New Mexico State -4.5New Mexico State43.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico State220 Overs
Sam Houston113 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 03 - 02 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 30 - 10 - 2

(#136) SHSU at (#107) NMSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSHSUNMSU
Power RatePwr #136 #107
SP+SP+ #135 #121
Perf GradeGrade #131 #114
OffenseOff #131 #127
DefenseDef #119 #65
Spec TeamsST #13 #17
TalentTal #121 #132
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Sam Houston Notes
(10/10) Def could not hold vs Jax St, QB Watson is tough
(10/3) Hilarious mistakes vs NMSU, no wonder still 0 wins
(10/3) Def awful, Off somehow worse. Longo grade F-
(8/30) QB Watson cannot run this system, big issue
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
Sam Houston Injury Report
New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report
Sam Houston on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffNMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #131 #65
SuccessSuc #118 #74
ExplosiveExp #76 #33
PPAPPA #122 #25
PowerPwr #122 #88
SP+SP+ #133 #107
Pts POPPO #130 #17
HavocHav #131 #65
Sam Houston Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #128 #81
Run SuccessRSuc #89 #23
Run ExplRExp #16 #38
PPAExp #70 #9
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #78
Stuff RateStuff #96 #40
TackleTak -  #53
Sam Houston Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #108 #56
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #121
Pass ExplPExl #127 #18
PPAExp #128 #79
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #73 #67
F7 HavocF7 #127 #76
DB HavocDB #96 #37
New Mexico State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatNMSU OffSHSU Def
Perf GradePerf #127 #119
SuccessSuc #126 #130
ExplosiveExp #44 #89
PPAPPA #128 #122
PowerPwr #110 #132
SP+SP+ #124 #135
Pts POPPO #123 #115
HavocHav #133 #113
New Mexico State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #134 #103
Run SuccessRSuc #136 #109
Run ExplRExp #76 #95
PPAExp #136 #103
Run BlockR Blk #108 -
OL YdsOLY #127 #56
Stuff RateStuff #133 #77
TackleTak -  #132
New Mexico State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatNMSU OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #99 #123
Pass SuccessPSuc #97 #135
Pass ExplPExl #94 #83
PPAExp #100 #131
Pass Block/RushP Blk #130 #112
F7 HavocF7 #100 #76
DB HavocDB #136 #127
Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 77°
Rematch from Week 6
Sam Houston 1.5 (53.5)
New Mexico State won vs Sam Houston this year (37-10)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat New Mexico State last year (31-11)
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston in 2023 (27-13)

  
SHSU's OC Zack Patterson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson10418257%1108546.1
Mabrey Mettauer (Tr)325163%250224.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landan Brown5428725.363
Hunter Watson7427623.755
Elijah Green (Tr)4127126.680
Alton McCaskill (Tr)4824915.252
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Reed17231213.632
Grady O'Neill (Tr)16170010.629
Landan Brown2916005.517
Tim Burns Jr.6145124.259

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Fish (Tr)512000
CJ Brown (Tr)362003
AJ Edwards313103
Emon Allen304001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chauncey Chidi253200
Christopher Eaton Jr. (Tr)136230
Darien Jackson72101
Zeiqui Lawton92120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
AJ Edwards313103
CJ Brown (Tr)362003
Cecil Powell (Tr)272003

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)15228154%1825996.5
Glynn Johnson Jr11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)8029833.729
Dijon Stanley (Tr)379602.613
Isaiah Rudison258413.411
Logan Fife (Tr)654310.724
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donovan Faupel39476312.255
Gavin Harris (Tr)27381114.134
Tyler King (Tr)15235015.754
Glynn Johnson Jr16227314.240

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell631003
Tory Gethers605302
Nicolas Sessions472002
Jamall Thompson447320
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)318562
Jamall Thompson447320
Tory Gethers605302
Cole Schnettgoecke152221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown113005
Sone Aupiu415103
Josiah Charles240003