Sam Houston at New Mexico State Game Matchup
Sam Houston logo Sam Houston Bearkats at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico State logo
Thursday, October 2nd 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Aggie Memorial Stadium - Las Cruces, NM  (Conference USA)

 
Bearkats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (25 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
SHSU 3rd straight Road Game
Our Line: New Mexico State -1   (SP+ SHSU -5)

Projected Score: SHSU: 27 - NMSU: 28 (51)
NMSU Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
SHSU Travel: 668 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#105)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/22 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+7.50.0
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.50.0
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Sam Houston at Texas+48.5
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State+1
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State-4.5
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+3.5
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+16.5
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware-2
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+2
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International-0

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 New Mexico State vs Bryant-5
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa-1.5
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+5
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+21.5
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State-2
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+9.5
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State-4.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+38.5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+7.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)23.841% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)20.547% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)36.343% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense1323.824.639.3%2.971.2193491801684.357%43%41%38%15%.1
NMSU Defense1236.334.841.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense1320.523.641.8%3.842.1 - - - - - 51%48%47%37%17%.11
NMSU Offense1221.630.539.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston1332:1018.839%67%4.637.91.22.15.42.2230.4
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense1357% (25)41% (100)42.5180.44.321 (59).1 (83)3.18 (44)68% (104)10% (69)0.9 (98)
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense1351% (74)47% (105) - - - - .17 (92)3.37 (119)75% (75)10% (56)0.83 (9)
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense1343% (113)38% (105)16.726.8168.26.310.115 (98)9 (48).13 (114)1.5 (106)30% (51)24% (126).13 (130)5% (47)2 (95)
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense1348% (60)37% (27) - - - - - - 16 (10).06 (6)1.4 (9)32% (57)25% (11).21 (32)6% (58)1.8 (12)
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -23.45 #132
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 3.00 #126
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 26.45 #127
2025 Talent Rating: 396.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #118
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #90

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -23.45   New Mexico State: -16.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -11.1   New Mexico State: -16.0




New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -16.24 #130
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico State 28
Sam Houston 27


Projected Total Points: 51
New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/21Sam Houston31New Mexico State11Sam HoustonSam Houston -15.5Sam Houston44.5Under
202310/11New Mexico State27Sam Houston13New Mexico StateNew Mexico State -4.5New Mexico State43.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico State110 Overs
Sam Houston112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#132) Sam Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -23.45 #132
Offense Rating: 3.00 #126
Defense Rating: 26.45 #127
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #118
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #90
Talent Rating: 396.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.97 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Sam Houston Notes
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
(3/26) RB complete rebuild. 2 portals inc. Green (IU)
(3/26) WR some exp, replacing a lot. 2 portal adds
(3/26) OL returns 6 w/ starting exp. Good rush LY
(3/26) Def awful, returns little. 9 portals, 5 DBs
(3/26) HC Longo interesting hire. Bad OC fit @ Wisc
(3/26) OC Patterson was SHSU RB coach past 2 yrs
Sam Houston     Ratings Matchup     New Mexico State
Power #132
#130
Off #126
#124
Def #127
#119
Talent #125
#131
SP+ #107
#122
SP+ Off #118
#106
SP+ Def #90
#124

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat New Mexico State last year (31-11)
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston in 2023 (27-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SHSU | NMSU
Depth Chart: SHSU | NMSU
Rosters: SHSU | NMSU
(#130) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.24 #130
Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124
Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.8 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


New Mexico State Notes
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) QB Fife (Mont), Awad started late LY
(3/26) RB McGowan good, 2 P4 portals added
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) Def bad LY, returns some. 6 portal DL adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother


  
Sam Houston's OC Zack Patterson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson15225360%15981186.3
Mabrey Mettauer (Tr)11100%2002.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Hunter Watson15262374.146
Elijah Green (Tr)2920156.951
Qua'Vez Humphreys32107.010
Alton McCaskill (Tr)71702.46
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Qua'Vez Humphreys18362420.167
Michael Phoenix II13205315.850
Malik Phillips225012.513
Shane Johnson21407.07

View Sam Houston's Full Roster
Sam Houston's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown (Tr)732012
Cecil Powell (Tr)241001
Chatavies Johnson151000
Emon Allen122001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown (Tr)732012
Grady O'Neill (Tr)20000
AJ Edwards10001
Gannon Tullos10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown (Tr)732012
AJ Edwards10001
Emon Allen122001

New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)15724664%17811327.2
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)2612414.860
Logan Fife (Tr)5212052.322
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Parker Awad6010911.825
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Tyler King (Tr)17236013.936
Gavin Harris (Tr)11173115.760

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Sone Aupiu554025
Dakerric Hobbs363016
Nicolas Sessions301003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Gabe Peterson (Tr)61100
Larry Jones III (Tr)51120
Glynn Johnson Jr20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dakerric Hobbs363016
Sone Aupiu554025
Nicolas Sessions301003