New Mexico State at Liberty Game Matchup
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty FlamesLiberty logo
Tuesday, October 14th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Williams Stadium - Lynchburg, VA  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (13 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#105)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
NMSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Liberty -21.5   (SP+ LIB -15)

Projected Score: NMSU: 16 - LIB: 38 (56)
LIB Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
NMSU Travel: 1597 miles, 2 hrs behind
Flames (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 5)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (32 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 1.7 (#7)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 11)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 New Mexico State vs Bryant-5
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa-1.5
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+5
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+21.5
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State-2
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+9.5
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State-4.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+38.5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+7.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Liberty vs Maine-23.5
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-16.5
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-11
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison-0.5
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion-8
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-11.5
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-21.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-19
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-21
Sat 11/15 Liberty vs Florida International-12.5
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-14
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State-23.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)36.343% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)28.854% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)23.539% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.612.639.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08
LIB Defense1223.522.339.4%3.681.3 - - - - - 55%45%39%40%16%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1236.338.441.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
LIB Offense1228.832.349.9%4.211.3224002381615.763%36%54%43%14%.26

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Liberty1228:4222.145%50%6.764.41.31.351.6028.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)
LIB Defense1255% (115)39% (30) - - - - .02 (20)2.68 (21)73% (62)10% (59)0.99 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
LIB Offense1263% (5)54% (2)41.8238.35.728 (25).25 (16)3.56 (7)76% (47)9% (43)0.91 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)
LIB Defense1245% (19)40% (66) - - - - - - 8 (93).21 (51)1.6 (77)32% (73)31% (81).18 (17)6% (82)1.8 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
LIB Offense1236% (130)43% (60)12.622.3161.27.212.815 (98)6 (10).27 (56)1.5 (104)24% (2)36% (23).43 (26)5% (36)1.9 (107)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -21.48 #130
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -21.48   Liberty: 2.535

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -16.0   Liberty: -1.1




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 2.535 #63
Liberty's Offense Rating: 14.42 #66
Liberty's Defense Rating: 13.25 #61
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #73
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 10.3 - 1.7
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.1 #69
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #61
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #69

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 38
New Mexico State 16


Projected Total Points: 56
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07New Mexico State24Liberty30LibertyLiberty -22.5New Mexico State54.5Under
202309/09Liberty33New Mexico State17LibertyLiberty -9Liberty54.5Under
202312/01Liberty49New Mexico State35LibertyLiberty -10.5Liberty54.0Over
202211/26Liberty14New Mexico State49New Mexico StateLiberty -24.0New Mexico State51.0Over
201910/05New Mexico State13Liberty20LibertyLiberty -4.5Liberty62.5Under
201911/30Liberty49New Mexico State28LibertyLiberty -14.5Liberty68.0Over
201810/06New Mexico State49Liberty41New Mexico StateLiberty -3New Mexico State64.0Over
201811/24Liberty28New Mexico State21LibertyLiberty -7Push72.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty644 Overs
New Mexico State234 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 35 - 23 - 12 - 1
Road Teams3 - 52 - 51 - 21 - 3

(#130) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -21.48 #130
Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124
Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.8 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


New Mexico State Notes
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) QB Fife (Mont), Awad started late LY
(3/26) RB McGowan good, 2 P4 portals added
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) Def bad LY, returns some. 6 portal DL adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother
New Mexico State     Ratings Matchup     Liberty
Power #130
#63
Off #124
#66
Def #119
#61
Talent #131
#84
SP+ #122
#69
SP+ Off #106
#61
SP+ Def #124
#69

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat New Mexico State last year (30-24)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2023 (49-35)
New Mexico State beat Liberty in 2022 (49-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | LIB
Depth Chart: NMSU | LIB
Rosters: NMSU | LIB
(#63) Liberty Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.535 #63
Offense Rating: 14.42 #66
Defense Rating: 13.25 #61
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.1 #69
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #61
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #69
Talent Rating: 594.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #73
Expected Record: 10.3 - 1.7

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.21 PPO
Great Run Success 54%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Liberty Notes
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
(3/22) WR bad LY, 2 portal adds. Lots of Sr's
(3/22) OL decent LY, 3/5 back. 3 portals. Looks good
(3/22) Def best in CUSA, returns a ton. 5 portals.
(3/22) Chadwell good coach, LY went south though
(3/22) 3rd year staff, schedule is a joke


  
New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)15724664%17811327.2
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)2612414.860
Logan Fife (Tr)5212052.322
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Parker Awad6010911.825
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Tyler King (Tr)17236013.936
Gavin Harris (Tr)11173115.760

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Sone Aupiu554025
Dakerric Hobbs363016
Nicolas Sessions301003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Gabe Peterson (Tr)61100
Larry Jones III (Tr)51120
Glynn Johnson Jr20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dakerric Hobbs363016
Sone Aupiu554025
Nicolas Sessions301003

Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)14827155%21201487.8
Ryan Burger81942%88004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ethan Vasko (Tr)10744754.229
Vaughn Blue3520715.945
Ryan Burger177014.157
Julian Gray106216.241
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamari Person (Tr)35373110.760
Elijah Canion25354314.250
Reese Smith18277415.444
Tyson Mobley2927619.525

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Carter885203
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
A'Khori Jones535003
Dexter Ricks Jr.392002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
Joseph Carter885203
Derrell Farrar (Tr)122110
Donovan Dozier31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Carter885203
A'Khori Jones535003
Amarian Williams140002