New Mexico State at Liberty - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty FlamesLiberty logo
Tuesday, October 14th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Williams Stadium - Lynchburg, VA  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 18 - 22 (14 - 49 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
NMSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Liberty -14.5   (SP+ LIB -13)

Projected Score: NMSU: 15 - LIB: 30 (45)
LIB Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
NMSU Travel: 1597 miles, 2 hrs behind
Flames (1 - 2) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 5)
Avg Score : 22 - 21 (28 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#62)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+2
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-7
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+14.5
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State-6.5
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+13
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State-7.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+39.5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+9.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-10.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+9.548.5
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+4
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-2.5
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-14.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-8.5
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-18.5
Sat 11/15 Liberty vs Florida International-3
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-2.5
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State-19

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#111 (.08)35% (128)1822% (136)1.43 (136)4843% (73)2533.33 (104)#19 (-.03)33% (22)2223% (4)44% (99)2.13 (18)73.31.71.3
LIB#52 (.25)46% (55)21.747% (50)3.16 (49)17744% (66)2423.44 (98)#97 (.19)36% (42)21.341% (78)28% (13)3.73 (73)39.320.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense3181434.5%3.331.717301482531.940%59%22%43%15%.08
LIB Defense321.3735.8%3.730.7 - - - - - 64%35%41%28%10%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense3224932.9%2.131.3 - - - - - 50%49%23%44%16%-.03
LIB Offense321.72845.7%3.442194191772424.653%47%47%44%16%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State327:5016.734%100%7.773.31.71.36.31.7028.8
Liberty330:4019.349%29%4.739.320.73.71.3028.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense340% (124)22% (136)25481.91 (127)-.26 (136)1.43 (136)75% (52)10% (91)0.81 (104)
LIB Defense364% (131)41% (78) - - - - .27 (122)3.05 (98)75% (80)7% (118)1.49 (131)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense350% (66)23% (4) - - - - -.22 (5)2.19 (20)43% (10)9% (91)1.05 (91)
LIB Offense353% (55)47% (50)38.31774.63 (95).14 (67)3.16 (49)64% (98)7% (40)0.99 (60)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense359% (14)43% (73)19.736.3253.3712.95 (54)3 (92).28 (70)1.5 (72)43% (135)27% (98).29 (80)5% (72)2.2 (41)
LIB Defense335% (5)28% (13) - - - - - - 1 (87).06 (30)2 (128)37% (35)29% (69).29 (75)3% (118)2.2 (104)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense349% (57)44% (99) - - - - - - 4 (12).18 (57)1.2 (20)37% (30)20% (25).04 (24)8% (30)2.1 (88)
LIB Offense347% (80)44% (66)17292428.314.26 (34)3 (92).36 (58)1.8 (19)29% (57)37% (36).46 (48)9% (130)2 (66)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -9.72 #105
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 1.27 #128
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.99 #85
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.5 #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #123
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #125

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -9.72   Liberty: 0.145

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -18.5   Liberty: -5.4




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.145 #78
Liberty's Offense Rating: 10.53 #79
Liberty's Defense Rating: 9.85 #80
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4 #88
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #89
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 18 PPG
Offense on Road: 14
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 49

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 30
New Mexico State 15


Total Points: 45

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 21.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 28
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07New Mexico State24Liberty30LibertyLiberty -22.5New Mexico State54.5Under
202309/09Liberty33New Mexico State17LibertyLiberty -9Liberty54.5Under
202312/01Liberty49New Mexico State35LibertyLiberty -10.5Liberty54.0Over
202211/26Liberty14New Mexico State49New Mexico StateLiberty -24.0New Mexico State51.0Over
201910/05New Mexico State13Liberty20LibertyLiberty -4.5Liberty62.5Under
201911/30Liberty49New Mexico State28LibertyLiberty -14.5Liberty68.0Over
201810/06New Mexico State49Liberty41New Mexico StateLiberty -3New Mexico State64.0Over
201811/24Liberty28New Mexico State21LibertyLiberty -7Push72.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty644 Overs
New Mexico State234 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 35 - 23 - 12 - 1
Road Teams3 - 52 - 51 - 21 - 3

(#105) New Mexico State Info
Power Rating: -9.72 #105
Offense Rating: 1.27 #128
Defense Rating: 10.99 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.5 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #123
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #125
Talent Rating: 306.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Awful Run Success 22%
Bad Pass Success 43%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 33%
Great in Scoring Position 2.13 PPO
Great Run Def Success 23%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

New Mexico State has lost 3 straight
New Mexico State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico State Notes
(7/15) RB Calloway good in '23 (Cal), 3 P4 portals
(7/12) QB Fife (Mont) QB1 over Awad, who had exp LY
(7/12) Def bad LY, returns some. 8 portal DL adds
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother

New Mexico State Highlights
New Mexico State offense is explosive (#29)
New Mexico State has a really good defense (#22)
New Mexico State defense is really good in red zone (#18)
New Mexico State has a good run defense (#4)
New Mexico State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#23)
New Mexico State Defensive Line is very good (#20)
New Mexico State Secondary is very good (#30)
New Mexico State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

New Mexico State Deficiencies
New Mexico State has a really bad Offense
New Mexico State has a bad TO Margin (#107)
New Mexico State Can Not Run the Ball (#136)
New Mexico State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
New Mexico State offense is really bad (#128)
New Mexico State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#136)
New Mexico State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#104)
New Mexico State run game is really bad (#136)
New Mexico State offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatLIBNMSU
OverallOver#73#78
OffenseOff#58#100
DefenseDef#81#67
Special TeamsST#80#25
PassingPass#65#87
RushingRush#49#106
Run BlockRBLK#71#75
Pass BlockPBLK#100#115
Route RunningWR Rt#34#41
TacklingTkl#98#106
Run DefenseR Def#103#81
Pass Rush DefPRush#76#51
Coverage DefCov#26#58

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat New Mexico State last year (30-24)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2023 (49-35)
New Mexico State beat Liberty in 2022 (49-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | LIB
Depth Chart: NMSU | LIB
Rosters: NMSU | LIB
(#78) Liberty Info
Power Rating: 0.145 #78
Offense Rating: 10.53 #79
Defense Rating: 9.85 #80
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #89
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 606.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Avg Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 28%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Liberty has lost 5 straight
Liberty has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Liberty Notes
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
(3/22) WR bad LY, 2 portal adds. Lots of Sr's
(3/22) OL decent LY, 3/5 back. 3 portals. Looks good
(3/22) Def best in CUSA, returns a ton. 5 portals.
(3/22) Chadwell good coach, LY went south though
(3/22) 3rd year staff, schedule is a joke

Liberty Highlights
Liberty is Undefeated at Home

Liberty offense is good on 3rd downs
Liberty has a good pass defense (#13)

Liberty Deficiencies
Liberty has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Liberty Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Liberty gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#132)


  
New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)5810854%756537.0
Glynn Johnson Jr11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)245812.417
Dijon Stanley (Tr)184702.613
Logan Fife (Tr)233701.614
Isaiah Rudison4501.34
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Glynn Johnson Jr13211216.240
Donovan Faupel13177113.655
Gavin Harris (Tr)9130114.434
Brodrick Malone568113.641

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez241013
Jamall Thompson226210
Naeten Mitchell210000
Sone Aupiu202101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamall Thompson226210
Sone Aupiu202101
Tory Gethers173100
Ezra Christensen (Tr)143132
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez241013
Nicolas Sessions150002
Ezra Christensen (Tr)143132

Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)518659%726638.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)3723026.252
Caden Williams2011705.925
Ethan Vasko (Tr)409012.324
Julian Gray106506.513
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr8187323.462
Reese Smith1211819.818
Jamari Person (Tr)9106011.820
Julian Gray688114.772

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)151110
Joseph Carter141000
Brylan Green131002
Brenton Williams102110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Bazile Jr.92200
Derrell Farrar (Tr)151110
Brenton Williams102110
Damond Harmon71101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brylan Green131002
Eli Hall00001
Kam Cullins20001