New Mexico State at UTEP - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
UTEP -4 (44.5) (-192) Open: -2.5
New Mexico State 34 - UTEP: 31 (Conference USA)

Aggies (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

NMSU 2nd straight Road Game
UTEP is playing their 4th straight game
NMSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: UTEP -4.5 (SP+ NMSU -1.5)
Projected Score: NMSU: 22 - UTEP: 26 (48)
UTEP Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NMSU Travel: 38 miles

Miners (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (24 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
UTEP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	New Mexico State vs Bryant	-19.5	52.5	W 19 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/6	New Mexico State vs Tulsa	+3.0	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/13	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+10.0	42.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+16.5	53.5	L 20 - 38	O	N
Thu 10/2	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	+1.5	53.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	Y
Wed 10/22	New Mexico State vs Missouri State	+2.5	51.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+7.5	53.5	L 16 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/8	New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State	+11.5	52.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/15	New Mexico State at Tennessee	+41.5	59.5	L 9 - 42	U	Y
Sat 11/22	New Mexico State at UTEP	+4.0	44.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/29	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	52.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 3

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

UTEP's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UTEP at Utah State	+3.5	59.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/6	UTEP vs UT Martin	-7.5	49.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/13	UTEP at Texas	+39.5	52.5	L 10 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/20	UTEP vs UL Monroe	-5.5	47.5	L 25 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	UTEP vs Louisiana Tech	+3.5	48.5	L 11 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	UTEP vs Liberty	+1.5	46.5	L 8 - 19	U	N
Wed 10/15	UTEP vs Sam Houston	-3.5	46.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28	UTEP at Kennesaw State	+12.5	53.5	L 20 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/8	UTEP vs Jacksonville State	+1.5	46.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/15	UTEP at Missouri State	+6.5	47.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/22	UTEP vs New Mexico State	-4.0	44.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	UTEP at Delaware	+4.5	55.5	L 31 - 61	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 6

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#124 (.05)	37% (123)	21.6	33% (135)	2.13 (134)	77	40% (92)	250	3.21 (113)	#41 (.11)	42% (72)	27.6	41% (54)	44% (106)	3.29 (36)	54.4	2	1.9
UTEP	#130 (.02)	33% (135)	23.3	36% (129)	2.14 (133)	116	31% (135)	216	3.42 (95)	#45 (.11)	39% (42)	30.4	37% (14)	42% (75)	3.85 (88)	57.1	2	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8
UTEP	#121 (.07)	37% (124)		38% (118)	2.8 (106)	121	36% (117)	200	2.81 (132)	#46 (.13)	40% (42)		40% (42)	39% (46)	3.85 (78)	50.9	1.6	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	20	36.7%	3.21	2	20	328	77	250	2.6	39%	59%	33%	40%	20%	.05
UTEP Defense	12	30.4	26.8	39.3%	3.85	1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	37%	42%	16%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	12	27.6	37.5	42%	3.29	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	41%	44%	16%	.11
UTEP Offense	12	23.3	24	33%	3.42	2	17	332	116	216	3.7	44%	54%	36%	31%	19%	.02

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	12	30:05	20.3	42%	41%	6.2	54.4	2	1.9	5	1.5	1	28.4
UTEP	12	25:38	16.8	30%	54%	5.9	57.1	2	1	6.8	2.3	1	28.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	12	39% (130)	33% (135)	29.7	77.4	2.6	9 (132)	-.09 (135)	2.13 (134)	69% (88)	11% (106)	0.91 (88)
UTEP Defense	12	54% (113)	37% (14)	-	-	-	-	.02 (24)	2.63 (22)	64% (22)	11% (33)	0.98 (79)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	12	50% (60)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	(15)	2.99 (92)	71% (69)	9% (106)	0.92 (46)
UTEP Offense	12	44% (113)	36% (129)	31.3	115.6	3.7	14 (99)	.05 (105)	2.14 (133)	60% (127)	11% (106)	1.17 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	12	59% (7)	40% (92)	23	39.3	250.3	6.4	10.9	17 (86)	16 (34)	.17 (111)	1.4 (109)	36% (130)	27% (108)	.2 (106)	10% (136)	1.9 (100)
UTEP Defense	12	45% (25)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (123)	.24 (64)	1.4 (22)	32% (51)	27% (36)	.12 (10)	5% (110)	1.5 (1)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	12	48% (64)	44% (106)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (31)	.26 (77)	1.5 (42)	31% (69)	27% (28)	.23 (47)	7% (24)	2.1 (103)
UTEP Offense	12	54% (27)	31% (135)	18.7	34.2	216.3	6.3	11.6	21 (61)	20 (136)	.03 (130)	1.7 (17)	34% (116)	24% (125)	.21 (103)	8% (128)	2.1 (31)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -11.44 #117
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60 #108
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 14.04 #105
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #124
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #113
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #119

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -11.44 UTEP: -8.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.2 UTEP: -16.6

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -8.91 #91
UTEP's Offense Rating: 0.12 #128
UTEP's Defense Rating: 6.34 #55
2025 Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
UTEP's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
UTEP's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.6 #129
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #112
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #125

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UTEP 26
New Mexico State 22

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
UTEP 31
New Mexico State 22

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
UTEP 28
New Mexico State 25

Total Points: 53

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.8

UTEP's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	UTEP	31	New Mexico State	34	UTEP -4	New Mexico State	44.5	Over
2024	11/30	New Mexico State	35	UTEP	42	New Mexico State -3.5	UTEP	51.5	Over
2023	10/18	UTEP	7	New Mexico State	28	New Mexico State -3	New Mexico State	48.5	Under
2022	09/10	UTEP	20	New Mexico State	13	UTEP -17	New Mexico State	46.5	Under
2021	08/28	New Mexico State	3	UTEP	30	UTEP -9.5	UTEP	59.0	Under
2019	11/23	New Mexico State	44	UTEP	35	New Mexico State -8	New Mexico State	56.0	Over
2018	09/22	UTEP	20	New Mexico State	27	New Mexico State -4.5	New Mexico State	50.5	Under
2017	09/23	New Mexico State	41	UTEP	14	New Mexico State -17.5	New Mexico State	59.0	Under
2016	09/03	UTEP	38	New Mexico State	22	UTEP -3.5	UTEP	58.0	Over
2015	09/19	New Mexico State	47	UTEP	50	UTEP -4	New Mexico State	59.5	Over
2014	09/13	UTEP	42	New Mexico State	24	UTEP -11	UTEP	0
2013	09/14	New Mexico State	21	UTEP	42	UTEP -6.5	UTEP	0
2012	09/15	UTEP	41	New Mexico State	28
2011	09/17	New Mexico State	10	UTEP	16
2010	09/18	UTEP	42	New Mexico State	10
2009	09/19	New Mexico State	12	UTEP	38
2008	09/20	UTEP	33	New Mexico State	34
2007	09/15	New Mexico State	29	UTEP	24
2006	09/30	UTEP	44	New Mexico State	38
2005	09/03	New Mexico State	17	UTEP	34
2004	10/02	UTEP	45	New Mexico State	0
2002	10/05	New Mexico State	49	UTEP	14
2000	09/29	UTEP	41	New Mexico State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTEP	15	5	5 Overs
New Mexico State	8	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 11	5 - 7	4 - 3	1 - 4
Road Teams	11 - 12	7 - 5	4 - 1	3 - 4

(#117) NMSU at (#91) UTEP

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	UTEP
Power RatePwr	#117	#91
SP+SP+	#124	#129
Perf GradeGrade	#110	#126
OffenseOff	#125	#131
DefenseDef	#61	#106
Spec TeamsST	#29	#110
TalentTal	#132	#82
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#88

New Mexico State Notes(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report

UTEP Notes(10/29) Even game w/ Kenn St, St's & 2-16 3rd down killed
(10/8) This offense is pathetic. New OC Mark Cala a disaster
(9/29) QB Nelson benched, Skyler Locklear will take over
(9/28) Off is near worst in CFB. QB Nelson a disaster so far
(9/25) 20 1st Half points in 3 games vs FBS teams
(9/21) Ugly L vs ULM, Run Def mauled, Run Off shit
(9/17) Patchwork OL might be OK once in CUSA play
(9/13) Great fight at Tex, Def played hard, QB OK
(8/30) Run game/Off awful vs USU. QB Nelson bad
(8/21) QB1 M Nelson (BSU) beats Locklear for starter
(8/2) 8 new Def starters, but 3* croots as talent rises
(8/2) Def replaces most, 19 portal adds, better talent
UTEP Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UTEP Def
Perf GradePerf	#125	#106
SuccessSuc	#123	#42
ExplosiveExp	#57	#47
PPAPPA	#124	#45
PowerPwr	#108	#55
SP+SP+	#113	#125
Pts POPPO	#113	#88
HavocHav	#133	#67

New Mexico State Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#135	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	#135	#14
Run ExplRExp	#88	#79
PPAExp	#135	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	#134	#22
Stuff RateStuff	#134	#20
TackleTak	-	#30

New Mexico State Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#98	#112
Pass SuccessPSuc	#92	#75
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#22
PPAExp	#111	#64
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#125	#97
F7 HavocF7	#106	#33
DB HavocDB	#136	#110

UTEP on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NMSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#131	#61
SuccessSuc	#135	#72
ExplosiveExp	#2	#46
PPAPPA	#130	#41
PowerPwr	#128	#105
SP+SP+	#112	#119
Pts POPPO	#95	#36
HavocHav	#123	#70

UTEP Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#96	#92
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#54
Run ExplRExp	#5	#46
PPAExp	#105	#15
Run BlockR Blk	#120	-
OL YdsOLY	#133	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#124	#60
TackleTak	-	#47

UTEP Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#41
Pass SuccessPSuc	#135	#106
Pass ExplPExl	#17	#42
PPAExp	#130	#77
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#88	#47
F7 HavocF7	#106	#106
DB HavocDB	#128	#24

Program Comparison
UTEP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 13
UTEP -4.0 (44.5)
New Mexico State won at UTEP this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
UTEP beat New Mexico State last year (42-35)
New Mexico State beat UTEP in 2023 (28-7)
UTEP beat New Mexico State in 2022 (20-13)

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Logan Fife (Tr)	203	361	56%	2232	11	12	6.2
Adam Damante	70	104	67%	711	5	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	117	450	3	3.8	29
Dijon Stanley (Tr)	73	297	2	4.1	57
Isaiah Rudison	42	158	2	3.8	36
Tyler King (Tr)	8	18	0	2.3	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donovan Faupel	61	661	7	10.8	55
Tyler King (Tr)	41	588	3	14.3	64
Gavin Harris (Tr)	36	514	1	14.3	34
Glynn Johnson Jr	27	335	3	12.4	40

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Naeten Mitchell	92	2	0	0	7
Tory Gethers	87	5	3	1	2
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Nicolas Sessions	61	3	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)	41	11	5	10	2
Jamall Thompson	61	8	4	4	0
Tory Gethers	87	5	3	1	2
Ta'Avili Tuitama	19	4	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Naeten Mitchell	92	2	7
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown	17	3	6
Stilton McKelvey	18	2	5

UTEP's OC Mark Cala (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear	117	211	56%	1418	13	11	6.7
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	104	190	55%	1163	8	9	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashten Emory	119	569	4	4.8	56
Skyler Locklear	103	396	8	3.8	63
Hahsaun Wilson (Tr)	46	225	1	4.9	94
Kenny Odom	13	57	0	4.4	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Wondame Davis Jr.	25	604	6	24.2	75
Kenny Odom	62	582	6	9.4	74
Eric Willis III	27	290	2	10.7	43
Josh Schuchts	21	232	3	11.0	64

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC Bobby Daly (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Micah Davey (Tr)	114	8	1	3	0
Jayden Wilson (Tr)	92	8	1	6	0
Xavier Smith	60	2	0	1	4
Solo Barnes (Tr)	59	2	1	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)	41	10	5	3	1
Kadarion Johnson	55	10	4	5	1
Elijah Baldwin	23	6	4	4	4
Ashaad Hall (Tr)	24	4	3	7	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Content	58	6	0	1	6
Xavier Smith	60	2	0	1	4
Solo Barnes (Tr)	59	2	1	1	4