New Mexico State at UTEP - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at UTEP MinersUTEP logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Sun Bowl Stadium - El Paso, TX  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 18 - 22 (14 - 49 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
NMSU 2nd straight Road Game
UTEP is playing their 4th straight game
NMSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: UTEP -9.5   (SP+ UTEP -5)

Projected Score: NMSU: 21 - UTEP: 31 (52)
UTEP Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
NMSU Travel: 38 miles
Miners (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (42 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#52)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+2
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-7
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+14.5
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State-6.5
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+13
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State-7.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+39.5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+9.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-10.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
UTEP's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UTEP at Utah State+3.559.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 9/6 UTEP vs UT Martin-7.549.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 UTEP at Texas+39.552.5L 10 - 27UY
Sat 9/20 UTEP vs UL Monroe-5.547.5
Sat 9/27 UTEP vs Louisiana Tech-2.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 UTEP vs Liberty+2.5
Wed 10/15 UTEP at Sam Houston-9
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 UTEP at Kennesaw State-9
Sat 11/8 UTEP vs Jacksonville State-8.5
Sat 11/15 UTEP at Missouri State-8.5
Sat 11/22 UTEP vs New Mexico State-9.5
Sat 11/29 UTEP at Delaware+1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#111 (.08)35% (128)1822% (136)1.43 (136)4843% (73)2533.33 (104)#19 (-.03)33% (22)2223% (4)44% (99)2.13 (18)73.31.71.3
UTEP#88 (.14)37% (115)22.740% (100)1.86 (134)11635% (112)2234.36 (49)#39 (.04)40% (71)2438% (63)42% (85)3.35 (61)45.31.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
UTEP#121 (.07)37% (124)38% (118)2.8 (106)12136% (117)2002.81 (132)#46 (.13)40% (42)40% (42)39% (46)3.85 (78)50.91.61.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense3181434.5%3.331.717301482531.940%59%22%43%15%.08
UTEP Defense3241739.8%3.350.7 - - - - - 57%43%38%42%18%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense3224932.9%2.131.3 - - - - - 50%49%23%44%16%-.03
UTEP Offense322.74236.9%4.361.3153381162234.243%57%40%35%16%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State327:5016.734%100%7.773.31.71.36.31.7028.8
UTEP324:0515.330%40%5.745.31.30.79.33.3026.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense340% (124)22% (136)25481.91 (127)-.26 (136)1.43 (136)75% (52)10% (91)0.81 (104)
UTEP Defense357% (112)38% (63) - - - - -.02 (43)2.5 (42)47% (18)13% (32)0.92 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense350% (66)23% (4) - - - - -.22 (5)2.19 (20)43% (10)9% (91)1.05 (91)
UTEP Offense343% (114)40% (100)27.7115.74.24 (79).08 (88)1.86 (134)67% (86)11% (100)1.13 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense359% (14)43% (73)19.736.3253.3712.95 (54)3 (92).28 (70)1.5 (72)43% (135)27% (98).29 (80)5% (72)2.2 (41)
UTEP Defense343% (26)42% (85) - - - - - - 1 (87).13 (44)1.4 (38)30% (101)28% (64).11 (32)5% (88)1.4 (8)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense349% (57)44% (99) - - - - - - 4 (12).18 (57)1.2 (20)37% (30)20% (25).04 (24)8% (30)2.1 (88)
UTEP Offense357% (27)35% (112)20.733.7222.76.610.85 (54)3 (92).21 (87)1.5 (71)28% (46)24% (110).4 (54)5% (60)2.6 (9)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -9.72 #105
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 1.27 #128
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.99 #85
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.5 #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #123
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #125

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -9.72   UTEP: -4.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -18.5   UTEP: -14.0




UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -4.785 #81
UTEP's Offense Rating: 4.82 #107
UTEP's Defense Rating: 5.38 #57
2025 Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
UTEP's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
UTEP's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.0 #119
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #117
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #102

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 18 PPG
Offense on Road: 14
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 49

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
UTEP 31
New Mexico State 21


Total Points: 52

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 42
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

UTEP's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30New Mexico State35UTEP42UTEPNew Mexico State -3.5UTEP51.5Over
202310/18UTEP7New Mexico State28New Mexico StateNew Mexico State -3New Mexico State48.5Under
202209/10UTEP20New Mexico State13UTEPUTEP -17New Mexico State46.5Under
202108/28New Mexico State3UTEP30UTEPUTEP -9.5UTEP59.0Under
201911/23New Mexico State44UTEP35New Mexico StateNew Mexico State -8New Mexico State56.0Over
201809/22UTEP20New Mexico State27New Mexico StateNew Mexico State -4.5New Mexico State50.5Under
201709/23New Mexico State41UTEP14New Mexico StateNew Mexico State -17.5New Mexico State59.0Under
201609/03UTEP38New Mexico State22UTEPUTEP -3.5UTEP58.0Over
201509/19New Mexico State47UTEP50UTEPUTEP -4New Mexico State59.5Over
201409/13UTEP42New Mexico State24UTEPUTEP -11UTEP0
201309/14New Mexico State21UTEP42UTEPUTEP -6.5UTEP0
201209/15UTEP41New Mexico State28UTEP
201109/17New Mexico State10UTEP16UTEP
201009/18UTEP42New Mexico State10UTEP
200909/19New Mexico State12UTEP38UTEP
200809/20UTEP33New Mexico State34New Mexico State
200709/15New Mexico State29UTEP24New Mexico State
200609/30UTEP44New Mexico State38UTEP
200509/03New Mexico State17UTEP34UTEP
200410/02UTEP45New Mexico State0UTEP
200210/05New Mexico State49UTEP14New Mexico State
200009/29UTEP41New Mexico State31UTEP
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UTEP1554 Overs
New Mexico State765 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 105 - 64 - 21 - 4
Road Teams10 - 126 - 54 - 12 - 4

(#105) New Mexico State Info
Power Rating: -9.72 #105
Offense Rating: 1.27 #128
Defense Rating: 10.99 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.5 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #123
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #125
Talent Rating: 306.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Awful Run Success 22%
Bad Pass Success 43%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 33%
Great in Scoring Position 2.13 PPO
Great Run Def Success 23%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

New Mexico State has lost 8 straight
New Mexico State has lost 5 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico State Notes
(7/15) RB Calloway good in '23 (Cal), 3 P4 portals
(7/12) QB Fife (Mont) QB1 over Awad, who had exp LY
(7/12) Def bad LY, returns some. 8 portal DL adds
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother

New Mexico State Highlights
New Mexico State offense is explosive (#29)
New Mexico State has a really good defense (#22)
New Mexico State defense is really good in red zone (#18)
New Mexico State has a good run defense (#4)
New Mexico State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#23)
New Mexico State Defensive Line is very good (#20)
New Mexico State Secondary is very good (#30)
New Mexico State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

New Mexico State Deficiencies
New Mexico State has a really bad Offense
New Mexico State has a bad TO Margin (#107)
New Mexico State Can Not Run the Ball (#136)
New Mexico State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
New Mexico State offense is really bad (#128)
New Mexico State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#136)
New Mexico State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#104)
New Mexico State run game is really bad (#136)
New Mexico State offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUTEPNMSU
OverallOver#86#78
OffenseOff#101#100
DefenseDef#74#67
Special TeamsST#73#25
PassingPass#107#87
RushingRush#41#106
Run BlockRBLK#88#75
Pass BlockPBLK#91#115
Route RunningWR Rt#96#41
TacklingTkl#1#106
Run DefenseR Def#76#81
Pass Rush DefPRush#32#51
Coverage DefCov#92#58

Previous Matchups
UTEP beat New Mexico State last year (42-35)
New Mexico State beat UTEP in 2023 (28-7)
UTEP beat New Mexico State in 2022 (20-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | UTEP
Depth Chart: NMSU | UTEP
Rosters: NMSU | UTEP
(#81) UTEP Info
Power Rating: -4.785 #81
Offense Rating: 4.82 #107
Defense Rating: 5.38 #57
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.0 #119
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #117
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #102
Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.36 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.35 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

UTEP has lost 8 straight
UTEP has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

UTEP Notes
(8/30) Run game/Off awful vs USU. QB Nelson bad
(8/21) QB1 M Nelson (BSU) beats Locklear for starter
(8/2) 8 new Def starters, but 3* croots as talent rises
(8/2) Def replaces most, 19 portal adds, better talent
(7/24) WR #1 Odom back, depth a ? 6 portals (3 FCS)
(7/24) K Thomas all purpose weapon, All CUSA as PR
(7/12) Last year in CUSA, join MWC in '26
(6/22) Proj #1 CB J Shelton arrested/left UTEP in June
(3/24) RB rebuild. Wilson (Char) a good add
(3/24) OL bad LY, 2/5 back, 2 more with a lot of exp

UTEP Highlights
UTEP is Undefeated at Home
UTEP is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

UTEP Defense Sacks the QB a lot


UTEP Deficiencies
UTEP Can Not Run the Ball (#112)
UTEP offense is really bad (#115)
UTEP Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#123)
UTEP run game is really bad (#100)
UTEP pass game is really bad (#112)
UTEP offense is bad on 3rd Downs


  
New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)5810854%756537.0
Glynn Johnson Jr11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)245812.417
Dijon Stanley (Tr)184702.613
Logan Fife (Tr)233701.614
Isaiah Rudison4501.34
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Glynn Johnson Jr13211216.240
Donovan Faupel13177113.655
Gavin Harris (Tr)9130114.434
Brodrick Malone568113.641

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez241013
Jamall Thompson226210
Naeten Mitchell210000
Sone Aupiu202101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamall Thompson226210
Sone Aupiu202101
Tory Gethers173100
Ezra Christensen (Tr)143132
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez241013
Nicolas Sessions150002
Ezra Christensen (Tr)143132

UTEP's OC Mark Cala
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Malachi Nelson (Tr)609663%665536.9
Skyler Locklear1333%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Hahsaun Wilson (Tr)14156111.194
Ashten Emory277222.712
Skyler Locklear337012.363
Kam Thomas163602.317
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kenny Odom19236212.474
Toric Goins Jr.9170118.949
Trevon Tate (Tr)97408.243
Eric Willis III96407.114

View UTEP's Full Roster
UTEP's DC Bobby Daly
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Micah Davey (Tr)312110
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)196221
Xavier Smith190010
Joshua Rudolph (Tr)181100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)196221
Ashaad Hall (Tr)82221
Elijah Baldwin123201
Micah Davey (Tr)312110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Neil Campbell (Tr)143102
Donte Thompson (Tr)111011
Ashaad Hall (Tr)82221