Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State Game Matchup

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Aggie Memorial Stadium - Las Cruces, NM (Conference USA)

Blue Raiders (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 18 - 34 (14 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#78)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)

NMSU is playing their 7th straight game
MTSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico State -1.5 (SP+ NMSU -0)
Projected Score: MTSU: 28 - NMSU: 29 (55)
NMSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
MTSU Travel: 1190 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#105)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay	-6
Sat 9/6	Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin	+27.5
Sat 9/13	Middle Tennessee at Nevada	+2.5
Sat 9/20	Middle Tennessee vs Marshall	-2
Sat 9/27	Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State	-0.5
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Middle Tennessee at Delaware	+3.5
Wed 10/29	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	-4
Sat 11/8	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	+0
Sat 11/15	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+8.5
Sat 11/22	Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston	-2
Sat 11/29	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+1.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 11
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 11
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	New Mexico State vs Bryant	-5
Sat 9/6	New Mexico State vs Tulsa	-1.5
Sat 9/13	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+5
Thu 10/2	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-1
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	New Mexico State at Liberty	+21.5
Wed 10/22	New Mexico State vs Missouri State	-2
Sat 11/1	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+9.5
Sat 11/8	New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State	-4.5
Sat 11/15	New Mexico State at Tennessee	+38.5
Sat 11/22	New Mexico State at UTEP	+7.5
Sat 11/29	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)	18.1	38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)	34.3	50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)	21.6	46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)	36.3	43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	12	18.1	14.2	39.4%	3	1.6	18	352	91	261	3.2	41%	59%	38%	40%	19%	.13
NMSU Defense	12	36.3	34.8	41.3%	3.7	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	43%	40%	12%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	12	34.3	35.8	49.4%	4.61	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	49%	14%	.32
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	30.5	39.3%	3.8	1.9	19	322	179	143	4.4	58%	42%	46%	30%	18%	.08

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	12	30:15	18.2	38%	48%	7.3	61.3	1.6	0.8	4.6	1.7	1	25.2
New Mexico State	12	29:26	19.3	38%	38%	5.4	48.1	1.9	0.8	3.8	1.2	1	27

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	12	41% (123)	38% (114)	27.9	90.5	3.2	10 (122)	.04 (110)	2.82 (104)	56% (132)	11% (100)	0.98 (62)
NMSU Defense	12	50% (55)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.18 (98)	3.17 (93)	58% (5)	7% (134)	1.04 (95)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	12	54% (104)	50% (124)	-	-	-	-	.19 (107)	3.19 (97)	72% (61)	9% (100)	0.97 (59)
NMSU Offense	12	58% (20)	46% (41)	41.3	179.3	4.4	16 (90)	.11 (81)	3.33 (21)	77% (37)	11% (103)	0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	12	59% (11)	40% (83)	22.8	35.6	261.1	7.3	11.5	16 (87)	10 (63)	.19 (95)	1.5 (102)	32% (84)	25% (123)	.17 (121)	7% (112)	1.9 (113)
NMSU Defense	12	50% (76)	40% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.36 (118)	1.9 (132)	31% (80)	29% (42)	.42 (107)	6% (78)	2.3 (126)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	12	46% (33)	49% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.47 (129)	1.6 (90)	27% (127)	34% (109)	.53 (128)	5% (101)	2.3 (128)
NMSU Offense	12	42% (116)	30% (132)	11.8	26.7	143.2	5.4	12.2	12 (118)	12 (85)	.05 (128)	1.8 (17)	33% (100)	30% (87)	.13 (131)	7% (104)	1.7 (132)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -18.76 #118
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 8.09 #104
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 26.85 #128
2025 Talent Rating: 436.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4 #125
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #130
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -18.76 New Mexico State: -16.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -16.4 New Mexico State: -16.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -16.24 #130
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 18.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 29
Middle Tennessee 28

Projected Total Points: 55

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Middle Tennessee	21	New Mexico State	36	New Mexico State	Middle Tennessee -3.5	New Mexico State	54.0	Over
2023	11/04	New Mexico State	13	Middle Tennessee	7	New Mexico State	New Mexico State -3.0	New Mexico State	55.5	Under
2004	11/06	New Mexico State	44	Middle Tennessee	10	New Mexico State
2003	10/11	Middle Tennessee	35	New Mexico State	18	Middle Tennessee
2002	11/02	New Mexico State	24	Middle Tennessee	21	New Mexico State
2001	10/27	Middle Tennessee	39	New Mexico State	35	Middle Tennessee

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	4	2	1 Overs
Middle Tennessee	2	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 5	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#118) Middle Tennessee Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.76 #118
Offense Rating: 8.09 #104
Defense Rating: 26.85 #128
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #130
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107
Talent Rating: 436.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Awful OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Middle Tennessee Notes
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) QB Vattiato back, good, 3K LY. Must limit TOs
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
(3/26) Def awful LY, must trust depth, only 1 portal
(3/26) Mason good fit, year 2 for staff. Could bowl

Middle Tennessee Ratings Matchup New Mexico State

Power #118

#130

Off #104

#124

Def #128

#119

Talent #120

#131

SP+ #125

#122

SP+ Off #130

#106

SP+ Def #107

#124

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat Middle Tennessee last year (36-21)
New Mexico State beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (13-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MTSU | NMSU
Depth Chart: MTSU | NMSU
Rosters: MTSU | NMSU

(#130) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.24 #130
Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124
Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.8 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

New Mexico State Notes
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) QB Fife (Mont), Awad started late LY
(3/26) RB McGowan good, 2 P4 portals added
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) Def bad LY, returns some. 6 portal DL adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother

Middle Tennessee's OC Bodie Reeder

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	269	418	64%	3092	16	10	7.4
Roman Gagliano	4	9	44%	41	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rickey Hunt	76	393	2	5.2	59
Jekail Middlebrook	60	273	2	4.6	24
Nick Vattiato	86	77	1	0.9	16
Roman Gagliano	2	5	0	2.5	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Myles Butler	30	366	3	12.2	61
Cam'Ron Lacy	20	190	0	9.5	44
Jekail Middlebrook	22	163	1	7.4	24
Gamarion Carter	12	123	0	10.3	27

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

Middle Tennessee's DC Brian Stewart

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Parker Hughes	69	2	0	1	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Shakai Woods	42	4	1	1	0
Brandon Buckner	37	4	3	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	37	4	3	5	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Aidan Butts	10	2	2	0	2
Damonte Smith	25	4	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Butts	10	2	2	0	2
Abdul Muhammad	12	0	0	0	2
Damonte Smith	25	4	2	3	1

New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Logan Fife (Tr)	157	246	64%	1781	13	2	7.2
Parker Awad	74	159	47%	1079	7	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	26	124	1	4.8	60
Logan Fife (Tr)	52	120	5	2.3	22
Larenzo McMillan	7	111	1	15.9	84
Parker Awad	60	109	1	1.8	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Pride	34	374	2	11.0	53
Glynn Johnson Jr	19	346	2	18.2	54
Tyler King (Tr)	17	236	0	13.9	36
Gavin Harris (Tr)	11	173	1	15.7	60

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1
Sone Aupiu	55	4	0	2	5
Dakerric Hobbs	36	3	0	1	6
Nicolas Sessions	30	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1
Gabe Peterson (Tr)	6	1	1	0	0
Larry Jones III (Tr)	5	1	1	2	0
Glynn Johnson Jr	2	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dakerric Hobbs	36	3	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	2	5
Nicolas Sessions	30	1	0	3