Florida at Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Commonwealth Stadium - Lexington, KY  (SEC)

 
Gators (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 27 - 13 (10 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
UK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Florida -6   (SP+ FLA -2.5)

Projected Score: FLA: 26 - UK: 20 (45)
FLA Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
FLA Travel: 592 miles
Wildcats (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 7.2 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+7.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+8
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+6.5
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-6
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+7.5
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+2.5
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State-0.5

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+6
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+20
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.5
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+11
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+18
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+6
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-32.5
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+12
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+10

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#91 (.13)45% (56)2751% (33)3.41 (32)13742% (77)2533.89 (72)#27 (-)32% (18)12.727% (7)38% (55)2.36 (29)53.321
UK#77 (.18)44% (65)31.754% (22)3.53 (24)21529% (130)1714.19 (60)#82 (.16)40% (70)2338% (65)41% (79)3.94 (88)49.30.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense3271045.5%3.892233911372534.340%59%51%42%16%.13
UK Defense3232339.6%3.941.3 - - - - - 51%49%38%41%12%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense312.72032.1%2.361 - - - - - 51%49%27%38%15%0
UK Offense331.731.743.9%4.190.7203852151715.159%40%54%29%14%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida335:2823.340%100%653.3213.30.3030.3
Kentucky331:162043%33%5.349.30.71.34.71.7035.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense340% (125)51% (33)32137.34.31 (127).21 (45)3.41 (32)100% (1)10% (88)0.83 (102)
UK Defense351% (75)38% (65) - - - - - (46)2.52 (45)69% (66)8% (102)0.94 (71)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense351% (78)27% (7) - - - - -.21 (6)2.01 (11)63% (43)8% (96)0.9 (62)
UK Offense359% (20)54% (22)42214.75.19 (17).3 (32)3.53 (24)57% (114)7% (38)0.92 (78)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense359% (12)42% (77)27.739.3253.36.49.27 (23)6 (132).13 (107)1.4 (106)30% (60)31% (72).12 (114)6% (92)1.8 (93)
UK Defense349% (65)41% (79) - - - - - - 4 (12).32 (104)1.7 (103)33% (62)30% (76).43 (104)4% (102)2.1 (80)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense349% (68)38% (55) - - - - - - 1 (87).22 (68)1.5 (59)35% (46)20% (27).18 (52)6% (56)2.2 (109)
UK Offense340% (118)29% (130)12.725.7170.76.713.52 (102)1 (23).07 (122)1.9 (12)29% (55)20% (124)-.01 (124)7% (102)1.9 (76)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 23.99 #18
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.79 #38
Florida's Defense Rating: -6.20 #7
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52% #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #30
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #47
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 23.99   Kentucky: 11.615

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 11.6   Kentucky: 9.1




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 11.615 #57
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 14.60 #56
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 5.47 #60
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 4.8 - 7.2
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.1 #41
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #62
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #29

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Florida Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense on Road: 10
Defense: 12.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 26
Kentucky 20


Total Points: 45

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 31.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Florida48Kentucky20FloridaKentucky -2.5Florida42.5Over
202309/30Kentucky33Florida14KentuckyKentucky -1Kentucky44.0Over
202209/10Florida16Kentucky26KentuckyFlorida -6Kentucky53.0Under
202110/02Kentucky20Florida13KentuckyFlorida -7.5Kentucky56.5Under
202011/28Florida34Kentucky10FloridaFlorida -23.5Florida60.5Under
201909/14Kentucky21Florida29FloridaFlorida -10Kentucky46.5Over
201809/08Florida16Kentucky27KentuckyFlorida -13.5Kentucky52.5Under
201709/23Kentucky27Florida28FloridaFlorida -3Kentucky44.0Over
201609/10Florida45Kentucky7FloridaFlorida -16.5Florida48.5Over
201509/19Kentucky9Florida14FloridaFlorida -4.5Florida52.5Under
201409/13Florida36Kentucky30FloridaFlorida -17Kentucky0
201309/28Kentucky7Florida24FloridaFlorida -12.5Florida0
201209/22Florida38Kentucky0Florida
201109/24Kentucky10Florida48Florida
201009/25Florida48Kentucky14Florida
200909/26Kentucky7Florida41Florida
200810/25Florida63Kentucky5Florida
200710/20Kentucky37Florida45Florida
200609/23Florida26Kentucky7Florida
200509/24Kentucky28Florida49Florida
200409/25Florida20Kentucky3Florida
200309/27Kentucky21Florida24Florida
200209/28Florida41Kentucky34Florida
200109/22Kentucky10Florida44Florida
200009/22Florida59Kentucky31Florida
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky475 Overs
Florida2155 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 127 - 53 - 34 - 2
Road Teams12 - 135 - 72 - 43 - 3

(#18) Florida Info
Power Rating: 23.99 #18
Offense Rating: 17.79 #38
Defense Rating: -6.20 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #30
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24
Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52% #12
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 32%
Good in Scoring Position 2.36 PPO
Great Run Def Success 27%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Florida has lost 7 straight
Florida has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Florida Notes
(9/7) Allowed 18 TFL through two games, Off a mess
(8/20) QB2 uncertain, but massive drop off either way
(8/13) Lagway health an issue, missing camp w/ others.
(6/30) DT Banks game wrecker, top 10 PFF w/ DE Sapp
(6/6) DL a top 5 unit via PFF, front line + depth
(6/6) OL 2 starters, 2 w/ exp. PFF rates at top 5 OL
(5/23) Safety duo of Thorton & Castell a top unit in CFB
(5/6) Proj starting CB D Johnson arrested (serious)
(5/1) Fr WR D Wilson dominated spring ball, will play
(4/4) OT Jake Slaughter the top T via PFF

Florida Highlights
Florida has a really good defense (#18)
Florida defense is really good in red zone (#29)
Florida has a good run defense (#7)
Florida Defensive Line is very good (#11)

Florida Deficiencies
Florida has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Florida throws a Lot of Interceptions (#132)
Florida offense is not Explosive (#103)
Florida does not Sack the QB (#130)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUKFLA
OverallOver#37#19
OffenseOff#73#44
DefenseDef#20#15
Special TeamsST#31#61
PassingPass#98#50
RushingRush#33#76
Run BlockRBLK#44#22
Pass BlockPBLK#31#4
Route RunningWR Rt#94#57
TacklingTkl#75#14
Run DefenseR Def#14#3
Pass Rush DefPRush#9#80
Coverage DefCov#80#35

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Kentucky last year (48-20)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2023 (33-14)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2022 (26-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FLA | UK
Depth Chart: FLA | UK
Rosters: FLA | UK
(#57) Kentucky Info
Power Rating: 11.615 #57
Offense Rating: 14.60 #56
Defense Rating: 5.47 #60
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.1 #41
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #62
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #29
Talent Rating: 896.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Expected Record: 4.8 - 7.2

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 40%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.19 PPO
Great Run Success 54%
Awful Pass Success 29%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.94 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Kentucky has lost 5 straight
Kentucky has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 1 (1 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Kentucky Notes
(8/30) Run Off good vs Toledo, but Calzada really bad
(8/13) No NIL $, roster gap getting bigger, harder job
(6/9) AHC Marrow left in June, been w/ UK since '13??
(6/9) Stoops had a great run, but this looks over
(6/8) 6 Def starters from 9 portals, all DL starters
(6/8) 14 proj starters from portal, 8 Off & 6 Def
(6/8) RBs Wilcox good, Dowdell(Neb) + McGowen(NMSU)
(6/8) OL 1/5 back, 7 portal adds. 5 clear starters
(5/11) OL has a lot of exp but 66% comes from portals
(5/5) UK 2-10 run in SEC home games & 0-7 streak

Kentucky Highlights
Kentucky is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Kentucky has Really Good Running Game (#22)
Kentucky has a top Offensive Line (#24)
Kentucky does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#28)

Kentucky has a great TO Margin (#28)
Kentucky defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Kentucky Deficiencies
Kentucky pass game is really bad (#130)


  
Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway7110071%629566.3
Tramell Jones Jr.121867%131207.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh3724316.626
Ja'Kobi Jackson205903.013
D.J. Lagway183101.710
Anthony Rubio52705.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III16197012.341
Hayden Hansen1311719.028
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)771110.118
Eugene Wilson146624.732

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Ron Roberts
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham172022
Jaden Robinson132001
Brendan Bett (Tr)121010
George Gumbs103020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp82100
Myles Graham172022
Titus Bullard10000
Javion Toombs20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton90013
Myles Graham172022
Devin Moore60002

Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zach Calzada (Tr)255347%234014.4
Cutter Boley132454%2782011.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)5127565.418
Dante Dowdell (Tr)3621415.979
Jason Patterson138016.229
Cutter Boley93804.213
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Kattus8112114.034
Jay Maclin4103025.844
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)697016.238
Kendrick Law (Tr)86908.623

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alex Afari Jr.263100
Ty Bryant211000
Jordan Lovett192000
Daveren Rayner170010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.52201
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)82120
Alex Afari Jr.263100
Jaden Williams (Tr)11110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols61013
Steven Soles Jr.52201
Quay'sheed Scott90001