Florida at Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Commonwealth Stadium - Lexington, KY  (SEC)

 
Gators (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#43)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
UK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Florida -12   (SP+ FLA -12.5)
Projected Score: FLA: 30 - UK: 18 (47)
FLA Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
FLA Travel: 592 miles
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#109)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-43
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-21.5
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+8.5
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+6.5
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+4.5
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-21
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+5.5
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-12
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+1
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee-5
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State-14.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.548.5
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+10.5
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-22
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+13.5
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+25
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+21
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+10
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+14.5
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+12
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-28.5
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+3
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+9.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)28.345% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)23.149% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)20.647% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)22.149% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1328.327.543%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18
UK Defense1222.117.646%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense1323.127.843.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
UK Offense1220.621.941.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 22.14 #12
Florida's Offense Rating: 27.00 #9
Florida's Defense Rating: 4.86 #17
2025 Talent Rating: 1056.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 49% #10
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #14
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #16
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.2 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 954.75
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 22.14   Kentucky: 7.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 17.3   Kentucky: 4.7




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 7.49 #51
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 15.78 #55
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.50 #40
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #43
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 954.75
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74


Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 30
Kentucky 18

Projected Total Points: 47
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Florida48Kentucky20FloridaKentucky -2.5Florida42.5Over
202309/30Kentucky33Florida14KentuckyKentucky -1Kentucky44.0Over
202209/10Florida16Kentucky26KentuckyFlorida -6Kentucky53.0Under
202110/02Kentucky20Florida13KentuckyFlorida -7.5Kentucky56.5Under
202011/28Florida34Kentucky10FloridaFlorida -23.5Florida60.5Under
201909/14Kentucky21Florida29FloridaFlorida -10Kentucky46.5Over
201809/08Florida16Kentucky27KentuckyFlorida -13.5Kentucky52.5Under
201709/23Kentucky27Florida28FloridaFlorida -3Kentucky44.0Over
201609/10Florida45Kentucky7FloridaFlorida -16.5Florida48.5Over
201509/19Kentucky9Florida14FloridaFlorida -4.5Florida52.5Under
201409/13Florida36Kentucky30FloridaFlorida -17Kentucky0
201309/28Kentucky7Florida24FloridaFlorida -12.5Florida0
201209/22Florida38Kentucky0Florida
201109/24Kentucky10Florida48Florida
201009/25Florida48Kentucky14Florida
200909/26Kentucky7Florida41Florida
200810/25Florida63Kentucky5Florida
200710/20Kentucky37Florida45Florida
200609/23Florida26Kentucky7Florida
200509/24Kentucky28Florida49Florida
200409/25Florida20Kentucky3Florida
200309/27Kentucky21Florida24Florida
200209/28Florida41Kentucky34Florida
200109/22Kentucky10Florida44Florida
200009/22Florida59Kentucky31Florida
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky475 Overs
Florida2155 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 127 - 53 - 34 - 2
Road Teams12 - 135 - 72 - 43 - 3

(#12) Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.14 #12
Offense Rating: 27.00 #9
Defense Rating: 4.86 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #14
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #16
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.2 #21
Talent Rating: 1056.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 49% #10
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Great in Scoring Position 3.12 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Florida Notes
(6/6) DL a top 5 unit via PFF, front line + depth
(6/6) OL 2 starters, 2 w/ exp. PFF rates at top 5 OL
(5/23) Safety duo of Thorton & Castell a top unit in CFB
(5/6) Proj starting CB D Johnson arrested (serious)
(5/1) Fr WR D Wilson dominated spring ball, will play
(4/4) OT Jake Slaughter the top T via PFF
(3/29) QB Lagway is special, has inj history though
(3/29) WR lost top 2, Wilson fast, Jackson hurt LY
(3/18) RB Jaden Baugh (Fr) a breakout in '24
(3/18) Def improved LY, good returning prod in '25
Florida     Ratings Matchup     Kentucky
Power #12
#51
Off #9
#55
Def #17
#40
Talent #9
#22
SP+ #14
#43
SP+ Off #16
#79
SP+ Def #21
#31

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Kentucky last year (48-20)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2023 (33-14)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2022 (26-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FLA | UK
Depth Chart: FLA | UK
Rosters: FLA | UK
(#51) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.49 #51
Offense Rating: 15.78 #55
Defense Rating: 10.50 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31
Talent Rating: 876.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Kentucky Notes
(6/9) Stoops had a great run, but this looks over
(6/8) 6 Def starters from 9 portals, all DL starters
(6/8) 14 proj starters from portal, 8 Off & 6 Def
(6/8) RBs Wilcox good, Dowdell(Neb) + McGowen(NMSU)
(6/8) OL 1/5 back, 7 portal adds. 5 clear starters
(5/11) OL has a lot of exp but 66% comes from portals
(5/5) UK 2-10 run in SEC home games & 0-7 streak
(4/4) OG Joshua Braun a top G via PFF
(3/24) Portal DL Gusta (WSU)/Grace (S Dak) big
(3/22) Added 13 players that started LY via portal


  
Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway11519260%191512910.0
Aidan Warner215042%228034.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh13367375.155
Ja'Kobi Jackson9350075.420
D.J. Lagway5110102.022
Treyaun Webb219314.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)22315214.345
Eugene Wilson19266114.085
Hayden Hansen15207113.840
Aidan Mizell17202211.943

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Ron Roberts
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Jaden Robinson524410
Tyreak Sapp4613750
Bryce Thornton412013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp4613750
George Gumbs369642
Caleb Banks217561
Jaden Robinson524410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Bryce Thornton412013
Aaron Gates274013

Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zach Calzada (Tr)31247166%34323297.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)15381335.338
Dante Dowdell (Tr)143614124.338
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Zach Calzada (Tr)8323052.833
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javian Hester14315122.590
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Seth McGowan (Tr)23277312.043
Troy Stellato (Tr)26266110.234

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landyn Watson (Tr)664030
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)5810970
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)5810970
Kameron Olds (Tr)427621
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
David Gusta (Tr)203163
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
J.Q. Hardaway470003
David Gusta (Tr)203163