Florida at Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Florida -4.5 (44.5) (-205)  Open: -4.5
Kentucky 38 - Florida: 7  (SEC)

 
Gators (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Billy Gonzales (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (13 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
UK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Florida -4  (SP+ FLA -1)

Projected Score: FLA: 26 - UK: 22 (47)
FLA Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
FLA Travel: 592 miles
Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+8.551.5L 7 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4.542.5W 29 - 21OY
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+7.047.5L 17 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-9.550.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+7.050.5L 20 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-4.544.5L 7 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+10.553.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+3.557.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State+1.548.5W 40 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.545.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+7.555.5L 34 - 56ON
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+11.544.5W 10 - 3UY
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+4.544.5W 38 - 7OY
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-22.552.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+7.053.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+1.045.5L 0 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#89 (.14)42% (80)21.647% (37)3.26 (19)13738% (113)2054 (42)#83 (.18)43% (89)2443% (71)44% (107)3.46 (55)43.71.51.4
UK#116 (.08)42% (79)2345% (53)3.05 (50)13940% (96)2023.84 (57)#84 (.18)44% (96)26.444% (83)45% (110)3.98 (99)411.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1221.61341.6%41.5193411372054.347%52%47%38%15%.14
UK Defense1226.422.643.7%3.981.2 - - - - - 52%46%44%45%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense122430.443.3%3.461.4 - - - - - 53%45%43%44%15%.18
UK Offense122331.741.6%3.841.8203411392023.951%47%45%40%18%.08

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1229:461934%42%5.143.71.51.452.1027.7
Kentucky1230:3819.740%52%4.9411.81.25.82.1029.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1247% (88)47% (37)32136.84.310 (122).14 (55)3.26 (19)76% (42)10% (74)0.8 (127)
UK Defense1252% (97)44% (83) - - - - .09 (63)2.89 (71)68% (45)10% (57)0.9 (41)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1253% (107)43% (71) - - - - .08 (59)2.79 (53)79% (117)9% (83)0.93 (52)
UK Offense1251% (52)45% (53)35.9139.33.919 (70).06 (98)3.05 (50)70% (85)11% (112)0.82 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1252% (41)38% (113)19.531.2204.66.610.518 (61)14 (127).17 (109)1.5 (82)30% (43)27% (103).24 (94)6% (59)1.9 (96)
UK Defense1246% (36)45% (110) - - - - - - 12 (38).31 (99)1.5 (65)30% (91)31% (83).31 (76)5% (110)2 (55)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1245% (27)44% (107) - - - - - - 10 (38).3 (93)1.6 (86)31% (86)28% (50).3 (72)5% (90)2.3 (131)
UK Offense1247% (85)40% (96)19.130.6201.96.610.615 (128)14 (60).19 (101)1.6 (59)31% (63)26% (111).02 (134)7% (94)1.7 (131)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.92  #30
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.19  #27
Florida's Defense Rating: 1.27  #32
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52%  #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7  #62
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2  #84
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #45

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 15.92   Kentucky: 5.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 2.7   Kentucky: 1.8




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 5.42  #56
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 9.52  #65
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 5.48  #49
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #63
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0  #78
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 26
Kentucky 22


Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida 26
Kentucky 25

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Kentucky 28
Florida 21

Total Points: 49
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Kentucky38Florida7Florida -4.5Kentucky44.5Over
202410/19Florida48Kentucky20Kentucky -2.5Florida42.5Over
202309/30Kentucky33Florida14Kentucky -1Kentucky44.0Over
202209/10Florida16Kentucky26Florida -6Kentucky53.0Under
202110/02Kentucky20Florida13Florida -7.5Kentucky56.5Under
202011/28Florida34Kentucky10Florida -23.5Florida60.5Under
201909/14Kentucky21Florida29Florida -10Kentucky46.5Over
201809/08Florida16Kentucky27Florida -13.5Kentucky52.5Under
201709/23Kentucky27Florida28Florida -3Kentucky44.0Over
201609/10Florida45Kentucky7Florida -16.5Florida48.5Over
201509/19Kentucky9Florida14Florida -4.5Florida52.5Under
201409/13Florida36Kentucky30Florida -17Kentucky0
201309/28Kentucky7Florida24Florida -12.5Florida0
201209/22Florida38Kentucky0
201109/24Kentucky10Florida48
201009/25Florida48Kentucky14
200909/26Kentucky7Florida41
200810/25Florida63Kentucky5
200710/20Kentucky37Florida45
200609/23Florida26Kentucky7
200509/24Kentucky28Florida49
200409/25Florida20Kentucky3
200309/27Kentucky21Florida24
200209/28Florida41Kentucky34
200109/22Kentucky10Florida44
200009/22Florida59Kentucky31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky586 Overs
Florida2155 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 128 - 53 - 35 - 2
Road Teams12 - 145 - 82 - 53 - 3

(#30) FLA at (#56) UK
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFLAUK
Power RatePwr #30 #56
SP+SP+ #62 #63
Perf GradeGrade #52 #70
OffenseOff #53 #91
DefenseDef #58 #38
Spec TeamsST #89 #87
TalentTal #15 #26
Blue ChipsBC% #12 #23
Florida Notes
(12/6) Jon Sumrall won 3 conf titles in 4 years at Tulane
(12/4) Hired Buster Faulkner (GT OC) as OC. Great Hire
(12/2) Hired Brad White at DC, was DC at UK '19-'25
(11/30) Hired Jon Sumrall (Tulane). Good hire for Gators
(11/16) Gators fought hard, Off no showed 2H vs Ole Miss
(11/9) Have the Gators quit? Killed by Kentucky, yikes
(11/6) Injury report long vs UK. Motivation ?'s now
(11/2) WR D Wilson is out for the season (foot)
(10/19) Napier fired, WR coach Billy Gonzales interim
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
Florida Injury Report
Kentucky Notes
(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffUK Def
Perf GradePerf #53 #38
SuccessSuc #80 #96
ExplosiveExp #129 #57
PPAPPA #89 #84
PowerPwr #27 #49
SP+SP+ #84 #48
Pts POPPO #42 #99
HavocHav #61 #91
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffUK Def
Run GameRun #42 #28
Run SuccessRSuc #37 #83
Run ExplRExp #127 #41
PPAExp #55 #63
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLY #19 #71
Stuff RateStuff #22 #53
TackleTak -  #38
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #94 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #113 #110
Pass ExplPExl #82 #65
PPAExp #109 #99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #10
F7 HavocF7 #74 #57
DB HavocDB #59 #110
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffFLA Def
Perf GradePerf #91 #58
SuccessSuc #79 #89
ExplosiveExp #126 #68
PPAPPA #116 #83
PowerPwr #65 #32
SP+SP+ #78 #45
Pts POPPO #57 #55
HavocHav #110 #98
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #88 #46
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #71
Run ExplRExp #123 #52
PPAExp #98 #59
Run BlockR Blk #50 -
OL YdsOLY #50 #53
Stuff RateStuff #52 #91
TackleTak -  #19
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #120 #78
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #107
Pass ExplPExl #59 #86
PPAExp #101 #93
Pass Block/RushP Blk #48 #98
F7 HavocF7 #112 #83
DB HavocDB #94 #90
Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 53° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 11
Florida 4.5 (44.5)
Kentucky won vs Florida this year (38-7)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Kentucky last year (48-20)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2023 (33-14)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2022 (26-16)

  
FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway21333763%226416146.7
Tramell Jones Jr.213560%191205.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh220117085.326
D.J. Lagway7113611.938
KD Daniels2812014.316
Ja'Kobi Jackson279803.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III40524013.160
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)27406315.057
Hayden Hansen3025428.528
Eugene Wilson2723938.940

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham767274
Bryce Thornton563156
Jordan Castell540020
Aaron Chiles523111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Woods275431
Kamran James445332
Brendan Bett (Tr)404310
Myles Graham767274
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton563156
Myles Graham767274
J'Vari Flowers171004

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley19830166%216015127.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)285848%238024.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)165725124.420
Dante Dowdell (Tr)11256035.079
Jason Patterson5722513.929
Cutter Boley668521.330
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)53540310.271
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)28313111.245
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Josh Kattus17195211.534

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Daveren Rayner697224
Alex Afari Jr.617361
J.Q. Hardaway582105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.115432
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)317462
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)135300
Tavion Gadson284330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.Q. Hardaway582105
Daveren Rayner697224
Terhyon Nichols181024