Texas A&M at Arkansas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas A&M logo (#4)Texas A&M Aggies at Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Texas A&M -7.5 (57.5) (-285)  Open: -8.5
Texas A&M 45 - Arkansas: 42  (SEC)

 
Aggies (11 - 2) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 34 - 21 (38 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 1.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Light Rain Predicted
Wind: 17.5 MPH
TA&M is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas A&M -14.5  (SP+ TA&M -17)

Projected Score: TA&M: 38 - ARK: 24 (62)
TA&M Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TA&M Travel: 397 miles
Razorbacks (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 33 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas A&M's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas A&M vs UTSA-21.556.5W 42 - 24ON
Sat 9/6 Texas A&M vs Utah State-34.557.5W 44 - 22ON
Sat 9/13 Texas A&M at Notre Dame+7.548.5W 41 - 40OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Texas A&M vs Auburn-6.551.5W 16 - 10UN
Sat 10/4 Texas A&M vs Mississippi State-17.557.5W 31 - 9UY
Sat 10/11 Texas A&M vs Florida-7.047.5W 34 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Texas A&M at Arkansas-7.557.5W 45 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Texas A&M at LSU-1.550.5W 49 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Texas A&M at Missouri-7.048.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/15 Texas A&M vs South Carolina-16.549.5W 31 - 30ON
Sat 11/22 Texas A&M vs Samford-54.559.5W 48 - 0UN
Fri 11/28 Texas A&M at Texas-2.554.5L 17 - 27UN
Sat 12/20 Texas A&M vs Miami-3.048.5L 3 - 10UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas A&M's Schedule
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas vs Alabama A&M-45.562.5W 52 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Arkansas vs Arkansas State-23.562.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Arkansas at Ole Miss+3.560.5L 35 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Arkansas at Memphis-7.059.5L 31 - 32ON
Sat 9/27 Arkansas vs Notre Dame+5.564.5L 13 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arkansas at Tennessee+10.068.5L 31 - 34UY
Sat 10/18 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+7.557.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas vs Auburn-2.555.5L 24 - 33ON
Sat 11/1 Arkansas vs Mississippi State-5.566.5L 35 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arkansas at LSU+4.058.5L 22 - 23UY
Sat 11/22 Arkansas at Texas+10.557.5L 37 - 52ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas vs Missouri+4.554.5L 17 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TA&M#29 (.24)46% (28)33.847% (35)3.16 (30)18546% (27)2604.14 (33)#55 (.13)34% (5)2136% (9)33% (5)3.91 (95)60.71.50.8
ARK#11 (.31)49% (12)32.954% (1)3.43 (6)19245% (38)2634.2 (31)#127 (.27)47% (127)33.850% (132)46% (117)4.21 (119)671.70.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TA&M#54 (.21)45% (41)46% (38)3.29 (27)18543% (58)1883.63 (93)#67 (.16)38% (23)40% (38)37% (22)3.03 (9)60.711.3
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)52% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)39% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TA&M Offense1333.83846.1%4.141.5234451852604.952%47%47%46%11%.24
ARK Defense1233.83547.3%4.210.8 - - - - - 54%44%50%46%15%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TA&M Defense132130.234.1%3.910.8 - - - - - 46%52%36%33%21%.13
ARK Offense1232.930.548.7%4.21.7234551922635.748%51%54%45%17%.31

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas A&M1332:3022.541%71%7.260.71.50.88.53.3232.5
Arkansas1229:0123.347%53%7.8671.70.85.41.8227.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TA&M Offense1352% (49)47% (35)38.11854.928 (36).16 (47)3.16 (30)75% (47)6% (1)0.93 (83)
ARK Defense1254% (118)50% (132) - - - - .21 (125)3.05 (100)71% (68)9% (89)0.95 (61)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TA&M Defense1346% (25)36% (9) - - - - .15 (96)2.67 (26)75% (97)16% (3)1.29 (136)
ARK Offense1248% (78)54% (1)33.6192.25.725 (30).3 (4)3.43 (6)65% (106)10% (79)1.08 (25)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TA&M Offense1347% (84)46% (27)19.131.4259.88.313.626 (22)14 (60).38 (26)1.5 (66)29% (30)29% (82).28 (75)5% (39)2 (67)
ARK Defense1244% (15)46% (117) - - - - - - 6 (75).44 (132)1.7 (122)31% (84)36% (132).44 (129)6% (52)2.1 (107)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TA&M Defense1352% (118)33% (5) - - - - - - 3 (123).1 (13)1.6 (91)39% (2)23% (4).22 (34)6% (75)2.3 (132)
ARK Offense1251% (55)45% (38)19.331.8262.98.313.722 (8)11 (60).37 (31)1.7 (22)31% (59)40% (5).58 (5)7% (114)2.3 (3)

Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 26.00  #5
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: 26.80  #5
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: 0.80  #11
2025 Talent Rating: 990.00  #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 65%  #6
Texas A&M's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 1.4
Texas A&M's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8  #8
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0  #8
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1  #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas A&M: 26.00   Arkansas: 9.505

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas A&M: 21.8   Arkansas: 4.9




Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 9.505  #43
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 24.32  #14
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 15.21  #80
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9  #52
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5  #16
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #99

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 38
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Texas A&M's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas A&M 38
Arkansas 24


Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas A&M 42
Arkansas 25

Total Points: 67

Based on Entire Season
Texas A&M 35
Arkansas 29

Total Points: 64
Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Arkansas42Texas A&M45Texas A&M -7.5Arkansas57.5Over
202409/28Texas A&M21Arkansas17Texas A&M -6.5Arkansas50.5Under
202309/30Arkansas22Texas A&M34Texas A&M -6.5Texas A&M53.5Over
202209/24Texas A&M23Arkansas21Texas A&M -1.5Texas A&M51.0Under
202109/25Arkansas20Texas A&M10Texas A&M -4.5Arkansas47.0Under
202010/31Texas A&M42Arkansas31Texas A&M -10.5Texas A&M0
201909/28Arkansas27Texas A&M31Texas A&M -23Arkansas59.5Under
201809/29Texas A&M24Arkansas17Texas A&M -20Arkansas56.5Under
201709/23Arkansas43Texas A&M50Arkansas -2.5Texas A&M58.5Over
201609/24Texas A&M45Arkansas24Texas A&M -3Texas A&M52.0Over
201509/26Arkansas21Texas A&M28Texas A&M -3.5Texas A&M61.5Under
201409/27Texas A&M35Arkansas28Texas A&M -12.5Arkansas0
201309/28Arkansas33Texas A&M45Texas A&M -3Texas A&M0
201209/29Texas A&M58Arkansas10
201110/01Arkansas42Texas A&M38
201010/09Texas A&M17Arkansas24
200910/03Arkansas47Texas A&M19
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas464 Overs
Texas A&M1376 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 76 - 73 - 43 - 3
Road Teams7 - 107 - 63 - 34 - 3

(#5) TA&M at (#43) ARK
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTA&MARK
Net PPPPPP #31 #76
Power RatePwr #5 #43
SP+SP+ #8 #52
Perf GradeGrade #25 #77
OffenseOff #48 #42
DefenseDef #17 #112
Spec TeamsST #17 #116
TalentTal #11 #48
Blue ChipsBC% #6 #33
Texas A&M Notes
(12/15) Hired Holmon Wiggins as OC, coached WR '24-'25
(12/12) Hired DC Lyle Memphill to replace Jay Bateman at DC
(11/28) RB1 Le'Veon Moss out for Texas, still unable to play
(11/15) WR3 Bethel-Roman non-contact inj vs S.Car
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in scoring opportunites
(10/18) Survived Ark, Off was great, Def was torched for 527
(10/15) Only have one SEC home game left (11/15 - S Car)
(10/12) Def has held opp to 2 of 33 on 3rd down in SEC play
(10/8) OL is highest graded via PFF, heavy Run Off 55%
(10/1) Most penalized team in CFB at 9.5 per game
(10/1) Last in SEC in 3rd down conversions at 31%
(9/27) Offense torched ND, WR are electric, Def not great
Texas A&M Injury Report
Arkansas Notes
(11/30) Hired Ryan Silverfield (Memphis). Meh hire IMO
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off great
(10/18) Off great vs A&M, Def torched as usual. 9 flags hurt
(9/30) Def has no players, schematics almost don't matter
(9/30) Pittman fired, Petrino Interim, Def staff fired
(9/27) Damn break vs ND, Def mauled, Off awful. Green bad
(9/23) Have fumbled away 2 straight games, brutal
(9/23) QB Taylen Green leads CFB in total offense (Wk 5)
(9/19) Off hot start, QB Green great, WR Blake weapon
(9/19) Pass Def torched by Ole Miss, Run D held up
(8/17) OC & DC are fighting, nearly physically?
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
Arkansas Injury Report
Texas A&M on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
TA&M OffARK Def
PPPOffPPP #31 #20
Perf GradePerf #48 #112
SuccessSuc #28 #127
ExplosiveExp #81 #76
PPAPPA #29 #127
PowerPwr #5 #80
SP+SP+ #8 #99
Pts POPPO #33 #119
HavocHav #5 #74
Texas A&M Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
TA&M OffARK Def
Run GameRun #45 #74
Run SuccessRSuc #35 #132
Run ExplRExp #83 #61
PPAExp #47 #125
Run BlockR Blk #54 -
OL YdsOLY #30 #100
Stuff RateStuff #28 #63
TackleTak -  #19
Texas A&M Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
TA&M OffARK Def
Pass GamePass #92 #126
Pass SuccessPSuc #27 #117
Pass ExplPExl #66 #122
PPAExp #26 #132
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #69
F7 HavocF7 #1 #89
DB HavocDB #39 #52
Arkansas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatARK OffTA&M Def
PPPDefPPP #54 #120
Perf GradePerf #42 #17
SuccessSuc #12 #5
ExplosiveExp #17 #135
PPAPPA #11 #55
PowerPwr #14 #11
SP+SP+ #16 #21
Pts POPPO #31 #95
HavocHav #102 #4
Arkansas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffTA&M Def
Run GameRun #2 #32
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #9
Run ExplRExp #25 #136
PPAExp #4 #96
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #6 #26
Stuff RateStuff #93 #40
TackleTak -  #85
Arkansas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatARK OffTA&M Def
Pass GamePass #67 #24
Pass SuccessPSuc #38 #5
Pass ExplPExl #22 #91
PPAExp #31 #13
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80 #14
F7 HavocF7 #79 #3
DB HavocDB #114 #75
Program Comparison
ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

TA&M 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 70° - Wind: 18 mph
Rain: 0.008
Rematch from Week 8
Texas A&M 7.5 (57.5)
Texas A&M won at Arkansas this year (45-42)

Previous Matchups
Texas A&M beat Arkansas last year (21-17)
Texas A&M beat Arkansas in 2023 (34-22)
Texas A&M beat Arkansas in 2022 (23-21)

  
TA&M's OC Collin Klein (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Marcel Reed23437762%316925128.4
Miles O'Neill71450%120128.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rueben Owens11963955.457
Marcel Reed10449364.746
Le'Veon Moss7740465.238
Amari Daniels4121615.341
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Concepcion (Tr)61919915.148
Mario Craver (Tr)58911415.786
Ashton Bethel-Roman24503521.076
Nate Boerkircher (Tr)20204310.228

View Texas A&M's Full Roster

TA&M's DC Jay Bateman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Taurean York727153
Marcus Ratcliffe663023
Dalton Brooks616331
Daymion Sanford5710432
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cashius Howell32151356
Daymion Sanford5710432
Dayon Hayes (Tr)174461
Dalton Brooks616331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will Lee III502107
Cashius Howell32151356
Dezz Ricks261005

ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taylen Green19832661%271419118.3
KJ Jackson335461%441308.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Washington168106886.457
Taylen Green13877985.664
Braylen Russell5528655.223
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)65409.041
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)57760513.336
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)41592314.458
Rohan Jones (Tr)19519427.362
CJ Brown28319311.426

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavian Sorey Jr.818333
Stephen Dix Jr.794100
Larry Worth641001
Caleb Wooden (Tr)593013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.4316860
Phillip Lee (Tr)316440
Xavian Sorey Jr.818333
Bradley Shaw505211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kani Walker (Tr)5231011
Julian Neal (Tr)5520010
Jordan Young (Tr)280016