Kentucky at South Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksSouth Carolina logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:45 PM EDT)
South Carolina -5.5 (46.5) (-218)  Open: -6.0
South Carolina 35 - Kentucky: 13  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 6) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Rain Shower Predicted
UK coming off BYE
SC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: South Carolina -6  (SP+ SC -3)

Projected Score: UK: 19 - SC: 25 (44)
SC Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UK Travel: 341 miles
Gamecocks (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Shane Beamer (29 - 21)
Avg Score : 23 - 22 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.545.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+7.555.5L 34 - 56ON
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+11.544.5W 10 - 3UY
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+4.544.5W 38 - 7OY
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-22.552.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+7.053.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+1.045.5L 0 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
South Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 South Carolina vs Virginia Tech-8.548.5W 24 - 11UY
Sat 9/6 South Carolina vs South Carolina State-43.054.0W 38 - 10UN
Sat 9/13 South Carolina vs Vanderbilt-3.048.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 9/20 South Carolina at Missouri+10.048.5L 20 - 29OY
Sat 9/27 South Carolina vs Kentucky-5.546.5W 35 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 South Carolina at LSU+8.544.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 10/18 South Carolina vs Oklahoma+4.542.5L 7 - 26UN
Sat 10/25 South Carolina vs Alabama+11.547.5L 22 - 29OY
Sat 11/1 South Carolina at Ole Miss+12.555.5L 14 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Carolina at Texas A&M+16.549.5L 30 - 31OY
Sat 11/22 South Carolina vs Coastal Carolina-24.050.0W 51 - 7OY
Sat 11/29 South Carolina vs Clemson-2.545.5L 14 - 28UN

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#115 (.08)42% (81)2345% (53)3.05 (51)13940% (96)2023.84 (57)#85 (.18)44% (97)26.444% (84)45% (112)3.98 (99)411.81.2
SC#109 (.1)37% (118)22.739% (107)2.89 (77)11236% (120)2252.61 (134)#30 (.09)42% (67)22.139% (39)44% (106)3.15 (29)57.31.51.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
SC#48 (.22)44% (58)44% (74)3.01 (73)17544% (42)2033.97 (62)#15 (.08)42% (73)45% (93)40% (61)3.19 (16)53.81.51.7



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense122310.841.6%3.841.8203411392023.951%47%45%40%18%.08
SC Defense1222.120.641.6%3.151.8 - - - - - 51%47%39%44%16%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1226.431.843.7%3.981.2 - - - - - 52%46%44%45%15%.18
SC Offense1222.724.937.2%2.611.5183371122253.349%50%39%36%20%.1

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1230:3819.740%52%4.9411.81.25.82.1029.6
South Carolina1227:5817.732%50%7.357.31.51.85.31.8426.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1251% (52)45% (53)35.9139.33.919 (70).06 (98)3.05 (51)70% (84)11% (111)0.82 (124)
SC Defense1251% (86)39% (39) - - - - -.06 (8)2.7 (31)68% (42)10% (49)0.88 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1252% (94)44% (84) - - - - .09 (63)2.89 (71)68% (44)10% (57)0.9 (41)
SC Offense1249% (73)39% (107)34111.63.314 (107).09 (81)2.89 (77)62% (124)14% (132)1.07 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1247% (85)40% (96)19.130.6201.96.610.615 (128)14 (60).19 (101)1.6 (59)31% (62)26% (113).02 (134)7% (95)1.7 (131)
SC Defense1247% (54)44% (106) - - - - - - 12 (22).25 (72)1.5 (40)31% (83)29% (68).14 (14)6% (69)1.9 (39)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1246% (37)45% (112) - - - - - - 12 (38).31 (99)1.5 (63)30% (91)31% (85).31 (76)5% (110)2 (53)
SC Offense1250% (63)36% (120)17.428.5225.37.912.913 (121)11 (60).17 (109)1.7 (30)36% (131)24% (127).14 (125)6% (81)1.8 (119)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 8.03  #45
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.41  #42
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.38  #41
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25%  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #63
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0  #78
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 8.03   South Carolina: 11.145

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 1.8   South Carolina: 5.2




South Carolina's Power Ratings
South Carolina's Power Rating: 11.145  #32
South Carolina's Offense Rating: 16.51  #49
South Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.42  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 36  #20
South Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
South Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2  #51
South Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #85
South Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5  #28

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
South Carolina 25
Kentucky 19


Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
South Carolina 18
Kentucky 17

Total Points: 35

Based on Entire Season
South Carolina 27
Kentucky 19

Total Points: 46
South Carolina Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

South Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27South Carolina35Kentucky13South Carolina -5.5South Carolina46.5Over
202409/07Kentucky6South Carolina31Kentucky -9.5South Carolina41.5Under
202311/18South Carolina17Kentucky14South Carolina -2.5South Carolina52.5Under
202210/08Kentucky14South Carolina24Kentucky -4South Carolina45.0Under
202109/25South Carolina10Kentucky16Kentucky -4.5Kentucky49.0Under
202012/05Kentucky41South Carolina18Kentucky -12Kentucky46.0Over
201909/28South Carolina24Kentucky7South Carolina -3.5South Carolina54.0Under
201809/29Kentucky24South Carolina10South Carolina -1Kentucky52.0Under
201709/16South Carolina13Kentucky23South Carolina -6Kentucky48.5Under
201609/24Kentucky17South Carolina10Kentucky -1.5Kentucky57.5Under
201509/12South Carolina22Kentucky26South Carolina -7.5Kentucky56.0Under
201410/04Kentucky45South Carolina38South Carolina -7.5Kentucky0
201310/05South Carolina35Kentucky28South Carolina -21Kentucky0
201209/29Kentucky17South Carolina38
201110/08South Carolina54Kentucky3
201010/16Kentucky31South Carolina28
200910/10South Carolina28Kentucky26
200810/11Kentucky17South Carolina24
200710/04South Carolina38Kentucky23
200610/07Kentucky17South Carolina24
200510/08South Carolina44Kentucky16
200410/16Kentucky7South Carolina12
200310/09South Carolina27Kentucky21
200210/12Kentucky12South Carolina16
200110/06South Carolina42Kentucky6
200010/06Kentucky17South Carolina20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Carolina1852 Overs
Kentucky889 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 117 - 65 - 52 - 1
Road Teams11 - 156 - 71 - 25 - 5

(#45) UK at (#32) SC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUKSC
Net PPPPPP #90 #65
Power RatePwr #45 #32
SP+SP+ #63 #51
Perf GradeGrade #75 #95
OffenseOff #89 #108
DefenseDef #42 #44
Spec TeamsST #112 #84
TalentTal #26 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #23 #20
Kentucky Notes
(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report
South Carolina Notes
(11/16) Blowing 30-3 lead vs A&M feels like the bottom
(11/2) OC Mike Shula fired after Ole Miss loss
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in Off scoring opportunities
(10/19) Off Success #'s bottom 10 in all CFB. Not improving
(10/19) Scored 44 pts vs 4 SEC games not named UK
(10/12) OL coach Lonnie Teasley fired after LSU game.
(9/22) RB Faison has issues blocking/protecting
(9/21) Run Off is awful, Run Def run over by Mizzu
(9/21) 51 car, 77 yds in SEC play, 431 rush yds allowed
(9/15) Sellers left Vandy game (concussion), ? Mizzu
(8/26) RB Faison (USU) cleared by NCAA to play TY
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp but 51% is via portals
South Carolina Injury Report
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffSC Def
PPPOffPPP #88 #91
Perf GradePerf #89 #44
SuccessSuc #81 #67
ExplosiveExp #128 #36
PPAPPA #115 #30
PowerPwr #42 #20
SP+SP+ #78 #28
Pts POPPO #57 #29
HavocHav #110 #61
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffSC Def
Run GameRun #90 #25
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #39
Run ExplRExp #124 #24
PPAExp #98 #8
Run BlockR Blk #47 -
OL YdsOLY #51 #31
Stuff RateStuff #51 #26
TackleTak -  #53
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffSC Def
Pass GamePass #117 #82
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #106
Pass ExplPExl #59 #40
PPAExp #101 #72
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #54 #70
F7 HavocF7 #111 #49
DB HavocDB #95 #69
South Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatSC OffUK Def
PPPDefPPP #88 #34
Perf GradePerf #108 #42
SuccessSuc #118 #97
ExplosiveExp #19 #57
PPAPPA #109 #85
PowerPwr #49 #41
SP+SP+ #85 #48
Pts POPPO #134 #99
HavocHav #130 #93
South Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
SC OffUK Def
Run GameRun #116 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #107 #84
Run ExplRExp #30 #41
PPAExp #81 #63
Run BlockR Blk #121 -
OL YdsOLY #77 #71
Stuff RateStuff #44 #53
TackleTak -  #27
South Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatSC OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #50 #109
Pass SuccessPSuc #120 #112
Pass ExplPExl #30 #63
PPAExp #109 #99
Pass Block/RushP Blk #102 #24
F7 HavocF7 #132 #57
DB HavocDB #81 #110
Program Comparison
SC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams-Brice Stadium
Conditions: Rain Shower
Temp: 77° - Wind: 7 mph
Rain: 0.008
Rematch from Week 5
South Carolina -5.5 (46.5)
South Carolina won vs Kentucky this year (35-13)

Previous Matchups
South Carolina beat Kentucky last year (31-6)
South Carolina beat Kentucky in 2023 (17-14)
South Carolina beat Kentucky in 2022 (24-14)

  
UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley19830166%216015127.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)285848%238024.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)165725124.420
Dante Dowdell (Tr)11256035.079
Jason Patterson5722513.929
Cutter Boley668521.330
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)53540310.271
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)28313111.245
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Josh Kattus17195211.534

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Daveren Rayner697224
Alex Afari Jr.617361
J.Q. Hardaway582105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.115432
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)317462
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)135300
Tavion Gadson284330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.Q. Hardaway582105
Daveren Rayner697224
Terhyon Nichols181024

SC's OC Mike Shula (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Lanorris Sellers17829361%24371388.3
Luke Doty193063%153015.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rahsul Faison (Tr)9647034.946
Lanorris Sellers14927051.826
Matthew Fuller7226023.672
Oscar Adaway III4114013.423
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nyck Harbor30618620.680
Vandrevious Jacobs32548417.174
Jayden Sellers22337115.375
Donovan Murph14197114.138

View South Carolina's Full Roster

SC's DC Clayton White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DQ Smith642001
Justin Okoronkwo (Tr)634021
Fred Johnson624143
Jalon Kilgore5400110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Thomas Jr.40117121
Dylan Stewart3112462
Nick Barrett426211
Jatius Geer133220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalon Kilgore5400110
Vicari Swain281105
Brandon Cisse (Tr)272015