Kentucky at South Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksSouth Carolina logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:45 PM EDT)
South Carolina -5.5 (46.5) (-218)  Open: -6.0
South Carolina 35 - Kentucky: 13  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (2 - 3) (1 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 24 - 28 (14 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#119)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 6) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Rain Shower Predicted
UK coming off BYE
SC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: South Carolina -11  (SP+ SC -6)

Projected Score: UK: 16 - SC: 27 (44)
SC Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UK Travel: 341 miles
Gamecocks (3 - 3) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Shane Beamer (29 - 21)
Avg Score : 22 - 19 (27 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#94)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.542.5
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+18
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+19
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+11
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-27
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+21.5
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+18.5

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
South Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 South Carolina vs Virginia Tech-8.548.5W 24 - 11UY
Sat 9/6 South Carolina vs South Carolina State-43.054.0W 38 - 10UN
Sat 9/13 South Carolina vs Vanderbilt-3.048.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 9/20 South Carolina at Missouri+10.048.5L 20 - 29OY
Sat 9/27 South Carolina vs Kentucky-5.546.5W 35 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 South Carolina at LSU+8.544.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 10/18 South Carolina vs Oklahoma+5.542.5
Sat 10/25 South Carolina vs Alabama+12
Sat 11/1 South Carolina at Ole Miss+16
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Carolina at Texas A&M+17.5
Sat 11/22 South Carolina vs Coastal Carolina-27
Sat 11/29 South Carolina vs Clemson+3

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.08)41% (95)24.448% (42)3.24 (31)16033% (128)1724.11 (63)#92 (.2)42% (80)27.841% (62)44% (101)4.24 (100)451.61.2
SC#102 (.14)37% (125)22.336% (126)2.72 (103)11638% (112)1952.79 (130)#20 (.05)42% (75)1941% (59)43% (91)3.43 (45)68.712
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
SC#48 (.22)44% (58)44% (74)3.01 (73)17544% (42)2033.97 (62)#15 (.08)42% (73)45% (93)40% (61)3.19 (16)53.81.51.7



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense524.413.541.2%4.111.6183321601724.257%42%48%33%17%.08
SC Defense6191842%3.432 - - - - - 55%45%41%43%15%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense527.83542.4%4.241.2 - - - - - 57%43%41%44%12%.2
SC Offense622.326.737%2.791183111161953.356%44%36%38%17%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky529:4918.439%38%5.6451.61.24.61.4032.8
South Carolina627:0717.836%46%9.268.7125.52.3426.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense557% (23)48% (42)37.6159.64.210 (65).14 (62)3.24 (31)67% (97)10% (89)0.89 (103)
SC Defense655% (111)41% (59) - - - - -.06 (10)2.79 (52)73% (81)11% (51)0.78 (12)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense557% (121)41% (62) - - - - .1 (72)2.81 (54)69% (59)8% (117)1.06 (99)
SC Offense656% (32)36% (126)35.7116.33.37 (95).08 (98)2.72 (103)74% (62)12% (126)1.14 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense542% (115)33% (128)14.627.4172.26.311.84 (125)4 (50).03 (129)1.6 (56)31% (62)19% (136)-.19 (136)7% (95)1.7 (130)
SC Defense645% (28)43% (91) - - - - - - 8 (12).18 (49)1.5 (65)31% (91)30% (81).09 (16)5% (106)1.9 (50)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense543% (15)44% (101) - - - - - - 6 (29).34 (107)1.6 (93)32% (74)34% (112).41 (109)4% (121)1.8 (20)
SC Offense644% (105)38% (112)15.323.8194.78.212.74 (125)3 (26).23 (86)1.6 (51)39% (135)22% (128).16 (112)4% (30)2 (78)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 2.90  #67
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 9.74  #78
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 6.84  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25%  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8  #62
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0  #70
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #51

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 2.90   South Carolina: 14.38

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 3.8   South Carolina: 10.1




South Carolina's Power Ratings
South Carolina's Power Rating: 14.38  #44
South Carolina's Offense Rating: 10.81  #71
South Carolina's Defense Rating: -2.85  #22
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 36  #20
South Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
South Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1  #40
South Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #68
South Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 13.5
Defense: 27.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
South Carolina 27
Kentucky 16


Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
South Carolina 18
Kentucky 17

Total Points: 35

Based on Entire Season
South Carolina 28
Kentucky 19

Total Points: 47
South Carolina Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.7
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

South Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27South Carolina35Kentucky13South Carolina -5.5South Carolina46.5Over
202409/07Kentucky6South Carolina31Kentucky -9.5South Carolina41.5Under
202311/18South Carolina17Kentucky14South Carolina -2.5South Carolina52.5Under
202210/08Kentucky14South Carolina24Kentucky -4South Carolina45.0Under
202109/25South Carolina10Kentucky16Kentucky -4.5Kentucky49.0Under
202012/05Kentucky41South Carolina18Kentucky -12Kentucky46.0Over
201909/28South Carolina24Kentucky7South Carolina -3.5South Carolina54.0Under
201809/29Kentucky24South Carolina10South Carolina -1Kentucky52.0Under
201709/16South Carolina13Kentucky23South Carolina -6Kentucky48.5Under
201609/24Kentucky17South Carolina10Kentucky -1.5Kentucky57.5Under
201509/12South Carolina22Kentucky26South Carolina -7.5Kentucky56.0Under
201410/04Kentucky45South Carolina38South Carolina -7.5Kentucky0
201310/05South Carolina35Kentucky28South Carolina -21Kentucky0
201209/29Kentucky17South Carolina38
201110/08South Carolina54Kentucky3
201010/16Kentucky31South Carolina28
200910/10South Carolina28Kentucky26
200810/11Kentucky17South Carolina24
200710/04South Carolina38Kentucky23
200610/07Kentucky17South Carolina24
200510/08South Carolina44Kentucky16
200410/16Kentucky7South Carolina12
200310/09South Carolina27Kentucky21
200210/12Kentucky12South Carolina16
200110/06South Carolina42Kentucky6
200010/06Kentucky17South Carolina20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Carolina1852 Overs
Kentucky889 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 117 - 65 - 52 - 1
Road Teams11 - 156 - 71 - 25 - 5

(#67) UK at (#44) SC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUKSC
Power RatePwr #67 #44
SP+SP+ #62 #40
Perf GradeGrade #78 #82
OffenseOff #112 #111
DefenseDef #54 #65
Spec TeamsST #83 #86
TalentTal #26 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #23 #20

Kentucky Notes
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
(9/15) Boley looks better at QB, Calzada inj (shoulder)
(8/30) Run Off good vs Toledo, but Calzada really bad
(8/13) No NIL $, roster gap getting bigger, harder job
(6/9) AHC Marrow left in June, been w/ UK since '13??
(6/9) Stoops had a great run, but this looks over
(6/8) 6 Def starters from 9 portals, all DL starters
(6/8) 14 proj starters from portal, 8 Off & 6 Def
(6/8) RBs Wilcox good, Dowdell(Neb) + McGowen(NMSU)
(6/8) OL 1/5 back, 7 portal adds. 5 clear starters
(5/11) OL has a lot of exp but 66% comes from portals

South Carolina Notes
(10/12) Scored 37 pts in 3 SEC games not vs Kentucky
(10/12) OL coach Lonnie Teasley fired after LSU game.
(9/22) RB Faison has issues blocking/protecting
(9/21) Run Off is awful, Run Def run over by Mizzu
(9/21) 51 car, 77 yds in SEC play, 431 rush yds allowed
(9/15) Sellers left Vandy game (concussion), ? Mizzu
(8/26) RB Faison (USU) cleared by NCAA to play TY
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp but 51% is via portals
(5/3) ST's lost K, P, holder and LS. Could be notable
(5/1) Fr WR Malik Clark has flashed early, will play
(4/19) WR Harbor huge talent. Lots of talent, incl Fr
Kentucky on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
UK OffSC Def
Perf GradePerf #112 #65
SuccessSuc #95 #75
ExplosiveExp #125 #19
PPAPPA #118 #20
PowerPwr #78 #22
SP+SP+ #70 #18
Pts POPPO #63 #45
HavocHav #94 #81
Kentucky Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
UK OffSC Def
Run GameRun #82 #36
Run SuccessRSuc #42 #59
Run ExplRExp #103 #12
PPAExp #62 #10
Run BlockR Blk #53 -
OL YdsOLY #31 #52
Stuff RateStuff #43 #23
TackleTak -  #50
Kentucky Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
UK OffSC Def
Pass GamePass #134 #99
Pass SuccessPSuc #128 #91
Pass ExplPExl #56 #65
PPAExp #129 #49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #43 #54
F7 HavocF7 #89 #51
DB HavocDB #95 #106
South Carolina on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatSC OffUK Def
Perf GradePerf #111 #54
SuccessSuc #125 #80
ExplosiveExp #25 #96
PPAPPA #102 #92
PowerPwr #71 #63
SP+SP+ #68 #51
Pts POPPO #130 #100
HavocHav #94 #128
South Carolina Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
SC OffUK Def
Run GameRun #103 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #126 #62
Run ExplRExp #18 #99
PPAExp #98 #72
Run BlockR Blk #123 -
OL YdsOLY #103 #54
Stuff RateStuff #42 #81
TackleTak -  #77
South Carolina Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatSC OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #42 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #112 #101
Pass ExplPExl #51 #93
PPAExp #86 #107
Pass Block/RushP Blk #106 #18
F7 HavocF7 #126 #117
DB HavocDB #30 #121
Program Comparison
SC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams-Brice Stadium
Conditions: Rain Shower
Temp: 77° - Wind: 7 mph
Rain: 0.008
Rematch from Week 5
South Carolina -5.5 (46.5)
South Carolina won vs Kentucky this year (35-13)

Previous Matchups
South Carolina beat Kentucky last year (31-6)
South Carolina beat Kentucky in 2023 (17-14)
South Carolina beat Kentucky in 2022 (24-14)

  
UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley488457%627437.5
Zach Calzada (Tr)255347%234014.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)7943175.520
Dante Dowdell (Tr)5624714.479
Jason Patterson148315.929
Zach Calzada (Tr)142311.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)1917419.238
Josh Kattus9141215.734
Willie Rodriguez9141115.753
Jay Maclin8135016.944

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alex Afari Jr.374100
Ty Bryant311001
J.Q. Hardaway310000
Jordan Lovett302000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.52201
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)154221
Tavion Gadson163110
Alex Afari Jr.374100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols91013
Steven Soles Jr.52201
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)154221

SC's OC Mike Shula (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Lanorris Sellers7311464%1010428.9
Luke Doty182864%148015.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rahsul Faison (Tr)5423134.330
Matthew Fuller3315424.772
Oscar Adaway III3312113.723
Lanorris Sellers7011711.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vandrevious Jacobs20341217.159
Nyck Harbor13256119.764
Donovan Murph594018.827
Brady Hunt108908.920

View South Carolina's Full Roster

SC's DC Clayton White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DQ Smith321000
Fred Johnson291121
Jalon Kilgore270011
Justin Okoronkwo (Tr)261001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Stewart259351
Bryan Thomas Jr.215350
Nick Barrett213201
Jatius Geer72210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Cisse (Tr)182013
Vicari Swain180002
Gerald Kilgore71001