Kentucky at Auburn - 2025 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn TigersAuburn logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Jordan-Hare Stadium - Auburn, AL  (FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start)

 
Wildcats (2 - 3) (1 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 24 - 28 (14 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#119)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
AUB is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Auburn -19  (SP+ AUB -10)

Projected Score: UK: 13 - AUB: 32 (45)
AUB Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
UK Travel: 379 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (3 - 3) (2 - 4 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (28 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#67)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.542.5
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+18
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+19
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+11
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-27
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+21.5
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+18.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Auburn at Baylor-1.557.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Auburn vs Ball State-43.052.5W 42 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 Auburn vs South Alabama-26.556.5W 31 - 15UN
Sat 9/20 Auburn at Oklahoma+6.547.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 9/27 Auburn at Texas A&M+6.551.5L 10 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Auburn vs Georgia+4.545.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 10/18 Auburn vs Missouri+1.543.5
Sat 10/25 Auburn at Arkansas-8
Sat 11/1 Auburn vs Kentucky-19
Sat 11/8 Auburn at Vanderbilt+5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Auburn vs Mercer-43.5
Sat 11/29 Auburn vs Alabama+3.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.08)41% (95)24.448% (42)3.24 (31)16033% (128)1724.11 (63)#92 (.2)42% (80)27.841% (62)44% (101)4.24 (100)451.61.2
AUB#86 (.16)43% (71)24.748% (39)3.01 (67)16438% (111)1674.7 (25)#31 (.07)36% (17)1728% (1)43% (88)3.24 (29)74.70.30.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
AUB#42 (.24)45% (40)48% (21)3.32 (23)16642% (67)2643.42 (110)#21 (.09)38% (20)38% (19)38% (34)3.35 (25)49.31.81.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense524.413.541.2%4.111.6183321601724.257%42%48%33%17%.08
AUB Defense61712.735.8%3.240.8 - - - - - 48%52%28%43%17%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense527.83542.4%4.241.2 - - - - - 57%43%41%44%12%.2
AUB Offense624.727.743%4.70.3193321641674.551%48%48%38%16%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky529:4918.439%38%5.6451.61.24.61.4032.8
Auburn630:2819.337%54%9.274.70.30.87.33126.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense557% (23)48% (42)37.6159.64.210 (65).14 (62)3.24 (31)67% (97)10% (89)0.89 (103)
AUB Defense648% (51)28% (1) - - - - -.15 (2)1.83 (1)70% (65)13% (22)0.92 (52)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense557% (121)41% (62) - - - - .1 (72)2.81 (54)69% (59)8% (117)1.06 (99)
AUB Offense651% (65)48% (39)36.5164.34.513 (35).24 (22)3.01 (67)89% (7)11% (102)1 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense542% (115)33% (128)14.627.4172.26.311.84 (125)4 (50).03 (129)1.6 (56)31% (62)19% (136)-.19 (136)7% (95)1.7 (130)
AUB Defense652% (87)43% (88) - - - - - - 2 (114).29 (89)1.6 (83)35% (26)25% (27).21 (41)4% (127)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense543% (15)44% (101) - - - - - - 6 (29).34 (107)1.6 (93)32% (74)34% (112).41 (109)4% (121)1.8 (20)
AUB Offense648% (73)38% (111)1828.5167.25.99.35 (116)0 (1).09 (123)1.2 (134)29% (40)21% (131).09 (128)5% (42)1.8 (113)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 2.90  #67
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 9.74  #78
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 6.84  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25%  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8  #62
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0  #70
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #51

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 2.90   Auburn: 22.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 3.8   Auburn: 13.4




Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 22.555  #18
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.56  #47
Auburn's Defense Rating: -10.15  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 988.00  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52  #12
Auburn's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Auburn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #27
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #62
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.5  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 13.5
Defense: 27.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 32
Kentucky 13


Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Auburn 26
Kentucky 19

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Auburn 29
Kentucky 17

Total Points: 46
Auburn Scoring
Offense: 24.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.7
Defense: 17 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.7

Auburn's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Kentucky10Auburn24Kentucky -2.0Auburn43.5Under
202009/26Auburn29Kentucky13Auburn -6.0Auburn47.0Under
201510/15Kentucky27Auburn30Auburn -1Auburn57.0Push
201010/09Kentucky34Auburn37
200910/17Auburn14Kentucky21
200511/05Kentucky27Auburn49
200410/23Auburn42Kentucky10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Auburn630 Overs
Kentucky102 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 51 - 21 - 10 - 1
Road Teams5 - 22 - 11 - 01 - 1

(#67) UK at (#18) AUB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUKAUB
Power RatePwr #67 #18
SP+SP+ #62 #27
Perf GradeGrade #78 #95
OffenseOff #112 #94
DefenseDef #54 #90
Spec TeamsST #83 #131
TalentTal #26 #12
Blue ChipsBC% #23 #12

Kentucky Notes
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
(9/15) Boley looks better at QB, Calzada inj (shoulder)
(8/30) Run Off good vs Toledo, but Calzada really bad
(8/13) No NIL $, roster gap getting bigger, harder job
(6/9) AHC Marrow left in June, been w/ UK since '13??
(6/9) Stoops had a great run, but this looks over
(6/8) 6 Def starters from 9 portals, all DL starters
(6/8) 14 proj starters from portal, 8 Off & 6 Def
(6/8) RBs Wilcox good, Dowdell(Neb) + McGowen(NMSU)
(6/8) OL 1/5 back, 7 portal adds. 5 clear starters
(5/11) OL has a lot of exp but 66% comes from portals

Auburn Notes
(10/13) RB2 Damari Alston left team, will transfer
(10/12) Freeze 5-14 in SEC games, 2-7 at home
(10/9) 59 car, 119 yds, 23 penalites, 154 yards in past 2
(9/27) OL penalized a lot, AU avgs 8.5 penalties per game
(9/24) WR H Fields out for the season (broken foot)
(9/20) Arnold bad vs OU, Run Off worse. Def fought
(9/18) Starting CB Jay Crawford doubtful for OU
(9/4) RB Damari Alston out week two (shoulder)
(8/29) Arnold much better, run off great, pass D awful
(7/16) WR2 (LY) Simmons arrested on serious charges
(6/6) OL returns 5/5, plus portal adds. PFF top 10 unit
Kentucky on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
UK OffAUB Def
Perf GradePerf #112 #90
SuccessSuc #95 #17
ExplosiveExp #125 #107
PPAPPA #118 #31
PowerPwr #78 #6
SP+SP+ #70 #9
Pts POPPO #63 #29
HavocHav #94 #54
Kentucky Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
UK OffAUB Def
Run GameRun #82 #11
Run SuccessRSuc #42 #1
Run ExplRExp #103 #52
PPAExp #62 #2
Run BlockR Blk #53 -
OL YdsOLY #31 #1
Stuff RateStuff #43 #1
TackleTak -  #88
Kentucky Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
UK OffAUB Def
Pass GamePass #134 #135
Pass SuccessPSuc #128 #88
Pass ExplPExl #56 #83
PPAExp #129 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #43 #62
F7 HavocF7 #89 #22
DB HavocDB #95 #127
Auburn on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatAUB OffUK Def
Perf GradePerf #94 #54
SuccessSuc #71 #80
ExplosiveExp #132 #96
PPAPPA #86 #92
PowerPwr #47 #63
SP+SP+ #62 #51
Pts POPPO #25 #100
HavocHav #77 #128
Auburn Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
AUB OffUK Def
Run GameRun #44 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #39 #62
Run ExplRExp #54 #99
PPAExp #22 #72
Run BlockR Blk #28 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #54
Stuff RateStuff #32 #81
TackleTak -  #77
Auburn Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatAUB OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #130 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #111 #101
Pass ExplPExl #134 #93
PPAExp #123 #107
Pass Block/RushP Blk #67 #18
F7 HavocF7 #102 #117
DB HavocDB #42 #121
Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Kentucky last year (24-10)

  
UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley488457%627437.5
Zach Calzada (Tr)255347%234014.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)7943175.520
Dante Dowdell (Tr)5624714.479
Jason Patterson148315.929
Zach Calzada (Tr)142311.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)1917419.238
Josh Kattus9141215.734
Willie Rodriguez9141115.753
Jay Maclin8135016.944

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alex Afari Jr.374100
Ty Bryant311001
J.Q. Hardaway310000
Jordan Lovett302000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.52201
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)154221
Tavion Gadson163110
Alex Afari Jr.374100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols91013
Steven Soles Jr.52201
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)154221

AUB's OC Derrick Nix (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)10616564%983506.0
Deuce Knight2540%20004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Cobb7045346.546
Jackson Arnold (Tr)8324763.027
Damari Alston3212814.015
Durell Robinson (Tr)357119.054
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Coleman24305212.746
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)3027929.337
Horatio Fields (Tr)1210618.814
Malcolm Simmons1210208.526

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)377331
Robert Woodyard Jr.273230
Keyron Crawford227420
Kaleb Harris191001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford227420
Xavier Atkins (Tr)377331
Keldric Faulk113243
Robert Woodyard Jr.273230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keldric Faulk113243
Xavier Atkins (Tr)377331
Demarcus Riddick111101