Kentucky at Auburn - 2025 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn TigersAuburn logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Auburn -11.5 (44.5) (-470)  Open: -10.0
Kentucky 10 - Auburn: 3  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
AUB is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Auburn -14.5  (SP+ AUB -10)

Projected Score: UK: 15 - AUB: 30 (45)
AUB Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
UK Travel: 379 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach D. J. Durkin (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (26 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.545.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+7.555.5L 34 - 56ON
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+11.544.5W 10 - 3UY
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+4.544.5W 38 - 7OY
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-22.552.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+7.053.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+1.045.5L 0 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Auburn at Baylor-1.557.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Auburn vs Ball State-43.052.5W 42 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 Auburn vs South Alabama-26.556.5W 31 - 15UN
Sat 9/20 Auburn at Oklahoma+6.547.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 9/27 Auburn at Texas A&M+6.551.5L 10 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Auburn vs Georgia+4.545.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 10/18 Auburn vs Missouri+1.543.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 10/25 Auburn at Arkansas+2.555.5W 33 - 24OY
Sat 11/1 Auburn vs Kentucky-11.544.5L 3 - 10UN
Sat 11/8 Auburn at Vanderbilt+6.046.5L 38 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Auburn vs Mercer-26.551.5W 62 - 17OY
Sat 11/29 Auburn vs Alabama+6.548.5L 20 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#116 (.08)42% (79)2345% (53)3.05 (50)13940% (96)2023.84 (57)#84 (.18)44% (96)26.444% (83)45% (110)3.98 (99)411.81.2
AUB#71 (.17)43% (57)26.847% (31)3.19 (26)17740% (89)1973.9 (52)#21 (.07)38% (28)20.733% (5)44% (97)3.37 (44)63.70.71.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
AUB#42 (.24)45% (40)48% (21)3.32 (23)16642% (67)2643.42 (110)#21 (.09)38% (20)38% (19)38% (34)3.35 (25)49.31.81.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense122310.841.6%3.841.8203411392023.951%47%45%40%18%.08
AUB Defense1220.716.438.3%3.371.4 - - - - - 48%51%33%44%17%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1226.431.843.7%3.981.2 - - - - - 52%46%44%45%15%.18
AUB Offense1226.826.443.4%3.90.7213741771974.751%48%47%40%17%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1230:3819.740%52%4.9411.81.25.82.1029.6
Auburn1229:2520.839%52%7.863.70.71.46.62.6326.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1251% (52)45% (53)35.9139.33.919 (70).06 (98)3.05 (50)70% (85)11% (112)0.82 (123)
AUB Defense1248% (45)33% (5) - - - - -.11 (3)2.25 (4)70% (58)11% (24)0.89 (29)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1252% (97)44% (83) - - - - .09 (63)2.89 (71)68% (45)10% (57)0.9 (41)
AUB Offense1251% (60)47% (31)37.8176.94.723 (36).24 (15)3.19 (26)80% (18)11% (117)1 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1247% (85)40% (96)19.130.6201.96.610.615 (128)14 (60).19 (101)1.6 (59)31% (63)26% (111).02 (134)7% (94)1.7 (131)
AUB Defense1251% (96)44% (97) - - - - - - 11 (75).27 (80)1.6 (82)32% (56)31% (88).3 (71)5% (90)2 (60)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1246% (36)45% (110) - - - - - - 12 (38).31 (99)1.5 (65)30% (91)31% (83).31 (76)5% (110)2 (55)
AUB Offense1248% (78)40% (89)18.430.2197.16.510.711 (121)4 (3).13 (120)1.3 (134)31% (61)27% (106).21 (104)6% (54)2 (87)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 4.04  #56
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 9.52  #65
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 5.48  #49
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25%  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #63
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0  #78
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 4.04   Auburn: 17.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 1.8   Auburn: 11.9




Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 17.39  #24
Auburn's Offense Rating: 11.58  #55
Auburn's Defense Rating: -6.30  #10
2025 Talent Rating: 988.00  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52  #12
Auburn's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Auburn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9  #29
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #58
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #15

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 30
Kentucky 15


Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Auburn 25
Kentucky 19

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Auburn 28
Kentucky 18

Total Points: 46
Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.4

Auburn's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Auburn3Kentucky10Auburn -11.5Kentucky44.5Under
202410/26Kentucky10Auburn24Kentucky -2.0Auburn43.5Under
202009/26Auburn29Kentucky13Auburn -6.0Auburn47.0Under
201510/15Kentucky27Auburn30Auburn -1Auburn57.0Push
201010/09Kentucky34Auburn37
200910/17Auburn14Kentucky21
200511/05Kentucky27Auburn49
200410/23Auburn42Kentucky10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Auburn630 Overs
Kentucky213 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 61 - 31 - 20 - 1
Road Teams6 - 23 - 11 - 02 - 1

(#56) UK at (#24) AUB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUKAUB
Power RatePwr #56 #24
SP+SP+ #63 #29
Perf GradeGrade #70 #87
OffenseOff #91 #95
DefenseDef #38 #51
Spec TeamsST #87 #99
TalentTal #26 #12
Blue ChipsBC% #23 #12
Kentucky Notes
(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report
Auburn Notes
(12/2) DC D. J. Durkin will remain on Golesh staff in '26
(11/30) Hired Alex Golesh (S Florida, former Tenn OC).
(11/20) QB1 Fr Deuce Knight will start vs Mercer, Bama
(11/2) HC Hugh Freeze fired after UK loss
(11/1) Home L to UK w/ 241 total yds. Freeze done
(10/31) Ashton Daniels will start vs UK, Arnold benched
(10/25) WR Coleman & Singleton both hurt vs Ark
(10/24) QB1 battle in week 9, Arnold still the starter. Yikes
(10/23) Auburn on a 3-11 run vs P4 teams since '24
(10/22) K A McPherson bad, longest FG is 34 yards
(10/20) Top OL Center Connor Lew out for season (ACL)
(10/13) RB2 Damari Alston left team, will transfer
Auburn Injury Report
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffAUB Def
Perf GradePerf #91 #51
SuccessSuc #79 #28
ExplosiveExp #126 #92
PPAPPA #116 #21
PowerPwr #65 #10
SP+SP+ #78 #15
Pts POPPO #57 #44
HavocHav #110 #50
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffAUB Def
Run GameRun #88 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #5
Run ExplRExp #123 #29
PPAExp #98 #3
Run BlockR Blk #50 -
OL YdsOLY #50 #4
Stuff RateStuff #52 #5
TackleTak -  #75
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffAUB Def
Pass GamePass #120 #115
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #97
Pass ExplPExl #59 #82
PPAExp #101 #80
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #48 #44
F7 HavocF7 #112 #24
DB HavocDB #94 #90
Auburn on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatAUB OffUK Def
Perf GradePerf #95 #38
SuccessSuc #57 #96
ExplosiveExp #130 #57
PPAPPA #71 #84
PowerPwr #55 #49
SP+SP+ #58 #48
Pts POPPO #52 #99
HavocHav #99 #91
Auburn Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
AUB OffUK Def
Run GameRun #47 #28
Run SuccessRSuc #31 #83
Run ExplRExp #55 #41
PPAExp #15 #63
Run BlockR Blk #54 -
OL YdsOLY #26 #71
Stuff RateStuff #20 #53
TackleTak -  #38
Auburn Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatAUB OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #108 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #89 #110
Pass ExplPExl #134 #65
PPAExp #120 #99
Pass Block/RushP Blk #75 #10
F7 HavocF7 #117 #57
DB HavocDB #54 #110
Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 55°
Rematch from Week 10
Auburn -11.5 (44.5)
Kentucky won at Auburn this year (10-3)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Kentucky last year (24-10)

  
UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley19830166%216015127.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)285848%238024.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)165725124.420
Dante Dowdell (Tr)11256035.079
Jason Patterson5722513.929
Cutter Boley668521.330
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)53540310.271
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)28313111.245
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Josh Kattus17195211.534

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Daveren Rayner697224
Alex Afari Jr.617361
J.Q. Hardaway582105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.115432
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)317462
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)135300
Tavion Gadson284330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.Q. Hardaway582105
Daveren Rayner697224
Terhyon Nichols181024

AUB's OC Derrick Nix (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)13621563%1309626.1
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Cobb17596955.546
Jackson Arnold (Tr)11231182.856
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6328024.426
Deuce Knight13178413.775
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Coleman57725512.746
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)5853439.248
Malcolm Simmons25457218.391
Perry Thompson1715409.134

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)8417971
Robert Woodyard Jr.677251
Kaleb Harris502101
Keyron Crawford36105100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)8417971
Keyron Crawford36105100
Chris Murray (Tr)154410
Keldric Faulk275264
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kayin Lee310004
Jay Crawford151004
Keldric Faulk275264