James Madison at Georgia State - 2025 Matchup Preview
James Madison logo James Madison Dukes at Georgia State PanthersGeorgia State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
James Madison -19.5 (52.5) (-1350)  Open: -17.5
James Madison 14 - Georgia State: 7  (Sun Belt)

 
Dukes (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bob Chesney (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (34 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12.1 - 1.9 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
GAST coming off BYE
Our Line: James Madison -28.5  (SP+ JMU -38.5)

Projected Score: JMU: 42 - GAST: 13 (55)
JMU Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
JMU Travel: 447 miles
Panthers (1 - 11) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
 
James Madison's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 James Madison vs Weber State-26.554.5W 45 - 10OY
Fri 9/5 James Madison at Louisville+15.057.0L 14 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 James Madison at Liberty-7.546.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 James Madison vs Georgia Southern-14.554.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 10/4 James Madison at Georgia State-19.552.5W 14 - 7UN
Sat 10/11 James Madison vs Louisiana-18.544.5W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/18 James Madison vs Old Dominion-3.047.5W 63 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 James Madison at Texas State-7.555.5W 52 - 20OY
Sat 11/8 James Madison at Marshall-13.553.5W 35 - 23ON
Sat 11/15 James Madison vs App State-21.053.5W 58 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 James Madison vs Washington State-15.044.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/29 James Madison at Coastal Carolina-24.054.5W 59 - 10OY
Fri 12/5 James Madison vs Troy-24.547.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 12/20 James Madison at Oregon+22.547.5L 34 - 51OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for James Madison's Schedule
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia State at Ole Miss+38.562.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia State vs Memphis+14.557.5L 16 - 38UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia State vs Murray State-31.563.5W 37 - 21UN
Sat 9/20 Georgia State at Vanderbilt+27.553.5L 21 - 70ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Georgia State vs James Madison+19.552.5L 7 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Georgia State vs App State+3.055.5L 20 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 Georgia State at Georgia Southern+6.558.5L 24 - 41ON
Thu 10/23 Georgia State vs South Alabama+5.554.5L 31 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina+7.056.5L 27 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Georgia State vs Marshall+9.559.5L 18 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Georgia State at Troy+9.551.0L 19 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Georgia State at Old Dominion+29.058.5L 10 - 27UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU#37 (.22)45% (38)37.148% (20)3.17 (29)23042% (61)1883.98 (43)#10 (.04)31% (2)18.433% (6)30% (3)3.41 (50)64.41.11.1
GAST#88 (.14)41% (90)19.843% (74)2.89 (78)12440% (88)2543.39 (100)#126 (.27)46% (122)37.845% (104)47% (122)4.45 (128)67.91.40.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU#88 (.16)44% (61)47% (29)3.28 (30)19440% (87)2163.93 (66)#4 (.03)34% (1)34% (5)34% (3)3.64 (53)54.80.72.5
GAST#92 (.15)41% (90)42% (92)2.94 (86)13441% (79)2563.85 (76)#121 (.28)48% (123)49% (119)46% (118)4.42 (120)49.11.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Offense1437.134.145%3.981.1214192301885.757%41%48%42%13%.22
GAST Defense1237.830.345.5%4.450.5 - - - - - 56%42%45%47%13%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Defense1418.421.731.5%3.411.1 - - - - - 47%52%33%30%20%.04
GAST Offense1219.821.541%3.391.4203781242544.143%56%43%40%16%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
James Madison1431:3920.947%41%6.664.41.11.15.92.5332.6
Georgia State1230:1019.639%44%8.667.91.40.54.81.5025.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Offense1457% (18)48% (20)40.2230.45.736 (16).21 (25)3.17 (29)77% (35)7% (18)1.04 (43)
GAST Defense1256% (128)45% (104) - - - - .18 (113)3.17 (114)77% (110)8% (120)0.97 (75)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Defense1447% (31)33% (6) - - - - (17)2.35 (6)57% (4)11% (26)1.07 (117)
GAST Offense1243% (119)43% (74)30.5123.84.19 (122).06 (94)2.89 (78)63% (119)9% (69)0.87 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Offense1441% (118)42% (61)14.424188.17.813.124 (61)10 (34).29 (50)1.7 (22)31% (69)31% (64).26 (89)6% (73)2 (67)
GAST Defense1242% (8)47% (122) - - - - - - 3 (123).43 (130)1.6 (109)28% (125)37% (134).48 (131)5% (104)2 (73)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Defense1452% (105)30% (3) - - - - - - 12 (38).1 (17)1.8 (130)39% (3)24% (12).13 (12)9% (5)1.9 (41)
GAST Offense1256% (16)40% (88)2439.6254.46.410.622 (42)11 (60).24 (71)1.6 (58)33% (107)32% (50).32 (62)7% (102)2 (76)

James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 9.92  #43
James Madison's Offense Rating: 9.35  #66
James Madison's Defense Rating: -0.57  #29
2025 Talent Rating: 482.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
James Madison's 2025 Expected Record: 12.1 - 1.9
James Madison's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.5  #24
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5  #25
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.7  #25

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 9.92   Georgia State: -16.44

SP+ Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 14.5   Georgia State: -23.8




Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -16.44  #126
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 4.33  #97
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 18.41  #126
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00  #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.8  #133
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #117
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.8  #134

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


James Madison Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.1
Defense: 18.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

James Madison's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
James Madison 42
Georgia State 13


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
James Madison 33
Georgia State 26

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
James Madison 35
Georgia State 20

Total Points: 55
Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Georgia State7James Madison14James Madison -19.5Georgia State52.5Under
202411/09James Madison38Georgia State7James Madison -14.5James Madison53.5Under
202311/04Georgia State14James Madison42James Madison -6.0James Madison53.0Over
202211/19James Madison42Georgia State40James Madison -10Georgia State51.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia State022 Overs
James Madison422 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 22 - 21 - 11 - 1
Road Teams2 - 22 - 21 - 11 - 1

(#43) JMU at (#126) GAST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatJMUGAST
Power RatePwr #43 #126
SP+SP+ #24 #133
Perf GradeGrade #7 #128
OffenseOff #16 #129
DefenseDef #5 #114
Spec TeamsST #59 #81
TalentTal #120 #94
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #56
James Madison Notes
(12/6) Sun Belt champs, beat Troy. Could be CFP bound?
(12/5) Hiring Billy Napier (UF) after Chesney took UCLA job
(12/4) Only its 4th FBS season & could make CFP. Incredible
(12/3) HC Bob Chesney has taken UCLA job, will coach '25
(10/29) Just murdering SBC, very much a G5 CFP threat
(10/22) Leads CFB in Defensive Success Rate, Off Good
(10/21) Off shredded ODU for 624, 311 rushing, 12-16 on 3rd
(9/20) Good W @ Liberty, Def incredible. Run Off good
(9/5) QB Barnett holds too long, not pocket aware
(9/5) Def front 7 dominant. Shut down Louisville
(9/2) QB Barnett started opener, Run Off mauled FCS
(8/25) QB Barnett cleared to play, is a top SBC QB
James Madison Injury Report
Georgia State Notes
(10/23) QB Cameran Brown taken over for TJ Finley (awful)
(10/23) This defense is shameful, DC Travis Pearson no good
(10/20) Most penalized team in CFB, have had 4 gms of 13+
(10/12) Too many paycheck games & now killed by App? Oof
(9/30) 3 paycheck games + FCS, know nothing about GSU
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
Georgia State Injury Report
James Madison on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffGAST Def
Perf GradePerf #16 #114
SuccessSuc #38 #122
ExplosiveExp #42 #81
PPAPPA #37 #126
PowerPwr #66 #126
SP+SP+ #25 #134
Pts POPPO #43 #128
HavocHav #34 #121
James Madison Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffGAST Def
Run GameRun #8 #100
Run SuccessRSuc #20 #104
Run ExplRExp #43 #75
PPAExp #25 #113
Run BlockR Blk #16 -
OL YdsOLY #29 #114
Stuff RateStuff #65 #126
TackleTak -  #46
James Madison Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffGAST Def
Pass GamePass #61 #100
Pass SuccessPSuc #61 #122
Pass ExplPExl #22 #109
PPAExp #50 #130
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #41 #108
F7 HavocF7 #18 #120
DB HavocDB #73 #104
Georgia State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatGAST OffJMU Def
Perf GradePerf #129 #5
SuccessSuc #90 #2
ExplosiveExp #64 #132
PPAPPA #88 #10
PowerPwr #97 #29
SP+SP+ #117 #25
Pts POPPO #100 #50
HavocHav #79 #7
Georgia State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
GAST OffJMU Def
Run GameRun #124 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #74 #6
Run ExplRExp #111 #117
PPAExp #94 #17
Run BlockR Blk #135 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #6
Stuff RateStuff #96 #7
TackleTak -  #21
Georgia State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatGAST OffJMU Def
Pass GamePass #58 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #88 #3
Pass ExplPExl #58 #130
PPAExp #71 #17
Pass Block/RushP Blk #130 #26
F7 HavocF7 #69 #26
DB HavocDB #102 #5
Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

JMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 75° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 6
James Madison 19.5 (52.5)
James Madison won at Georgia State this year (14-7)

Previous Matchups
James Madison beat Georgia State last year (38-7)
James Madison beat Georgia State in 2023 (42-14)
James Madison beat Georgia State in 2022 (42-40)

  
JMU's OC Dean Kennedy (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alonza Barnett21637058%28062387.6
Matthew Sluka (Tr)81173%100329.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Wayne Knight207137396.673
Alonza Barnett127589154.658
Jordan Fuller (Tr)8241555.126
Jobi Malary4334948.173
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Ellis (Tr)36624517.362
Nick DeGennaro (Tr)28500517.976
Wayne Knight4039719.957
Jaylan Sanchez (Tr)30396113.280

View James Madison's Full Roster

JMU's DC Colin Hitschler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trent Hendrick967323
Tyler Brown715105
Jacob Thomas653237
Drew Spinogatti517163
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sahir West4614774
Xavier Holmes (Tr)317664
Aiden Gobaira (Tr)338530
Trent Hendrick967323
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Barksdale3630112
Justin Eaglin350008
Elijah Culp (Tr)444017

GAST's OC Hue Jackson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley (Tr)12720163%1244676.2
Cameran Brown (Tr)11918465%12591316.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Simmons9754325.692
Cameran Brown (Tr)6128444.722
Rashad Amos (Tr)6326724.229
Branson Robinson (Tr)4614813.247
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ted Hurst711004614.170
Javon Robinson (Tr)58599410.346
Grant Hollier21288413.752
Jordan Simmons2819216.932

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Travis Pearson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson968211
Jaylen Jones665001
Kedrick Walker577310
D-Icey Hopkins513105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jartavius Flounoy226311
Kedrick Walker577310
Josiah Robinson968211
Richard Kramer (Tr)132200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bernard Causey III (Tr)192106
D-Icey Hopkins513105
Jordan Huff (Tr)471004