App State at Georgia State - 2025 Matchup Preview
App State logo App State Mountaineers at Georgia State PanthersGeorgia State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
App State -3 (55.5) (-155)  Open: -4.5
App State 41 - Georgia State: 20  (Sun Belt)

 
Mountaineers (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dowell Loggains (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (22 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
GAST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: App State -5.5  (SP+ APP -13)

Projected Score: APP: 30 - GAST: 25 (55)
APP Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
APP Travel: 230 miles
Panthers (1 - 11) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
 
App State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 App State vs Charlotte-8.553.5W 34 - 11UY
Sat 9/6 App State vs Lindenwood-31.556.0W 20 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 App State at Southern Miss-3.055.5L 22 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 App State at Boise State+16.559.5L 14 - 47ON
Sat 10/4 App State vs Oregon State-1.553.5W 27 - 23UY
Sat 10/11 App State at Georgia State-3.055.5W 41 - 20OY
Sat 10/18 App State vs Coastal Carolina-10.548.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 10/25 App State at Old Dominion+12.560.5L 21 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 App State vs Georgia Southern-4.562.5L 23 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 App State at James Madison+21.053.5L 10 - 58ON
Sat 11/22 App State vs Marshall+3.557.5W 26 - 24UY
Sat 11/29 App State vs Arkansas State-1.054.5L 29 - 30ON
Mon 12/29 App State vs Georgia Southern+10.058.5L 10 - 29UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for App State's Schedule
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia State at Ole Miss+38.562.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia State vs Memphis+14.557.5L 16 - 38UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia State vs Murray State-31.563.5W 37 - 21UN
Sat 9/20 Georgia State at Vanderbilt+27.553.5L 21 - 70ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Georgia State vs James Madison+19.552.5L 7 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Georgia State vs App State+3.055.5L 20 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 Georgia State at Georgia Southern+6.558.5L 24 - 41ON
Thu 10/23 Georgia State vs South Alabama+5.554.5L 31 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina+7.056.5L 27 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Georgia State vs Marshall+9.559.5L 18 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Georgia State at Troy+9.551.0L 19 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Georgia State at Old Dominion+29.058.5L 10 - 27UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
APP#93 (.13)41% (85)24.243% (73)2.99 (58)11440% (85)2423.69 (71)#77 (.18)45% (109)29.845% (97)45% (114)4.18 (116)58.91.41.4
GAST#88 (.14)41% (90)19.843% (74)2.89 (78)12440% (88)2543.39 (100)#126 (.27)46% (122)37.845% (104)47% (122)4.45 (128)67.91.40.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
APP#57 (.21)44% (60)45% (58)3.01 (75)15743% (62)2733.89 (71)#123 (.3)49% (127)51% (130)47% (119)4.78 (132)5721.2
GAST#92 (.15)41% (90)42% (92)2.94 (86)13441% (79)2563.85 (76)#121 (.28)48% (123)49% (119)46% (118)4.42 (120)49.11.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
APP Offense1324.221.641.5%3.691.4193561142423.942%56%43%40%17%.13
GAST Defense1237.830.345.5%4.450.5 - - - - - 56%42%45%47%13%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
APP Defense1329.837.444.7%4.181.4 - - - - - 45%53%45%45%17%.18
GAST Offense1219.821.541%3.391.4203781242544.143%56%43%40%16%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
App State1326:0119.533%63%6.358.91.41.45.42.2128
Georgia State1230:1019.639%44%8.667.91.40.54.81.5025.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
APP Offense1342% (121)43% (73)291143.911 (99).07 (92)2.99 (58)67% (96)8% (29)0.77 (131)
GAST Defense1256% (128)45% (104) - - - - .18 (113)3.17 (114)77% (110)8% (120)0.97 (75)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
APP Defense1345% (16)45% (97) - - - - .05 (44)2.8 (55)70% (57)10% (57)0.82 (10)
GAST Offense1243% (119)43% (74)30.5123.84.19 (122).06 (94)2.89 (78)63% (119)9% (69)0.87 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
APP Offense1356% (15)40% (85)21.836.8241.86.611.123 (33)11 (108).23 (79)1.6 (60)33% (99)33% (35).33 (59)9% (133)1.9 (107)
GAST Defense1242% (8)47% (122) - - - - - - 3 (123).43 (130)1.6 (109)28% (125)37% (134).48 (131)5% (104)2 (73)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
APP Defense1353% (122)45% (114) - - - - - - 12 (22).31 (96)1.5 (52)32% (55)32% (93).36 (103)7% (24)2.2 (116)
GAST Offense1256% (16)40% (88)2439.6254.46.410.622 (42)11 (60).24 (71)1.6 (58)33% (107)32% (50).32 (62)7% (102)2 (76)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -11.03  #112
App State's Offense Rating: 3.41  #105
App State's Defense Rating: 14.44  #108
2025 Talent Rating: 650.00  #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
App State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
App State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.6  #108
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #92
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: -11.03   Georgia State: -16.44

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: -10.6   Georgia State: -23.8




Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -16.44  #126
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 4.33  #97
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 18.41  #126
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00  #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.8  #133
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #117
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.8  #134

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

App State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
App State 30
Georgia State 25


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia State 28
App State 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
App State 29
Georgia State 27

Total Points: 56
Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Georgia State20App State41App State -3App State55.5Over
202410/26App State33Georgia State26App State -7.5Georgia State59.0Push
202311/11Georgia State14App State42Georgia State -2.5App State62.5Under
202210/19App State42Georgia State17Appalachian State -9.5App State60.5Under
202110/02Georgia State16App State45Appalachian State -10.5App State54.5Over
202011/14App State17Georgia State13Appalachian State -18Georgia State63.0Under
201911/16Georgia State27App State56Appalachian State -15App State61.0Over
201811/17App State45Georgia State17Appalachian State -27.5App State54.5Over
201711/25Georgia State10App State31Appalachian State -6App State50.5Under
201610/01App State17Georgia State3Appalachian State -21Georgia State52.0Under
201510/10Georgia State3App State37Appalachian State -18App State61.0Under
201411/01App State44Georgia State0Appalachian State -5.5App State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia State034 Overs
App State1296 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 63 - 93 - 40 - 5
Road Teams6 - 69 - 35 - 04 - 3

(#112) APP at (#126) GAST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAPPGAST
Power RatePwr #112 #126
SP+SP+ #108 #133
Perf GradeGrade #90 #128
OffenseOff #98 #129
DefenseDef #53 #114
Spec TeamsST #36 #81
TalentTal #84 #94
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #56
App State Notes
(10/19) Horrific home loss to C Car, Run Def mauled 240+
(10/19) So QB JJ Kohl taken over for Swann (was injured)
(9/22) App has lost 5 straight road games into Boise St
(8/30) Swann great vs Char, Run game decent, Def imp
(8/1) Poss worst DL in SBC, 7 portal adds are meh
(8/1) Entire new team, portals meh, no bowl TY
(8/1) Def bottomed out LY. DL weak. LB avg, CB OK
(8/1) Don't love Loggains hire, SC was done w/ him
(7/13) WR rebuild, Stroman exp'd, 4 portal adds
(6/3) Watch WR J Barnes (A Peay) 1k yds, slot guy
(6/3) QB JJ Kohl (ISU) had best spring, Swann (LSU)?
(6/3) OL 3/5 back, bad LY. 8 portals, weak in spring
App State Injury Report
Georgia State Notes
(10/23) QB Cameran Brown taken over for TJ Finley (awful)
(10/23) This defense is shameful, DC Travis Pearson no good
(10/20) Most penalized team in CFB, have had 4 gms of 13+
(10/12) Too many paycheck games & now killed by App? Oof
(9/30) 3 paycheck games + FCS, know nothing about GSU
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
Georgia State Injury Report
App State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffGAST Def
Perf GradePerf #98 #114
SuccessSuc #85 #122
ExplosiveExp #97 #81
PPAPPA #93 #126
PowerPwr #105 #126
SP+SP+ #92 #134
Pts POPPO #71 #128
HavocHav #99 #121
App State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffGAST Def
Run GameRun #87 #100
Run SuccessRSuc #73 #104
Run ExplRExp #131 #75
PPAExp #92 #113
Run BlockR Blk #99 -
OL YdsOLY #58 #114
Stuff RateStuff #27 #126
TackleTak -  #46
App State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffGAST Def
Pass GamePass #74 #100
Pass SuccessPSuc #85 #122
Pass ExplPExl #60 #109
PPAExp #79 #130
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #115 #108
F7 HavocF7 #29 #120
DB HavocDB #133 #104
Georgia State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatGAST OffAPP Def
Perf GradePerf #129 #53
SuccessSuc #90 #109
ExplosiveExp #64 #44
PPAPPA #88 #77
PowerPwr #97 #108
SP+SP+ #117 #119
Pts POPPO #100 #116
HavocHav #79 #42
Georgia State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
GAST OffAPP Def
Run GameRun #124 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #74 #97
Run ExplRExp #111 #10
PPAExp #94 #44
Run BlockR Blk #135 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #55
Stuff RateStuff #96 #78
TackleTak -  #61
Georgia State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatGAST OffAPP Def
Pass GamePass #58 #105
Pass SuccessPSuc #88 #114
Pass ExplPExl #58 #52
PPAExp #71 #96
Pass Block/RushP Blk #130 #9
F7 HavocF7 #69 #57
DB HavocDB #102 #24
Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 75° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 7
App State 3.0 (55.5)
App State won at Georgia State this year (41-20)

Previous Matchups
App State beat Georgia State last year (33-26)
App State beat Georgia State in 2023 (42-14)
App State beat Georgia State in 2022 (42-17)

  
APP's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann (Tr)13022259%14941086.7
J.J. Kohl (Tr)13321662%14651226.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)17486845.039
Jaquari Lewis12456364.527
J.J. Kohl (Tr)305011.732
Khamani Alexander72804.06
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Barnes (Tr)55608711.159
Dalton Stroman32569417.872
Davion Dozier (Tr)20448522.468
Izayah Cummings (Tr)37374110.130

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC D. J. Smith (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colton Phares899223
Zyeir Gamble663004
DJ Burks652005
Elijah Mc-Cantos521002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Abrams-Verwayne397552
Aiden Benton345460
Caleb Sandstrom (Tr)194432
Thomas Davis256320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Johnson4010011
DJ Burks652005
Emory Floyd Jr. (Tr)471004

GAST's OC Hue Jackson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley (Tr)12720163%1244676.2
Cameran Brown (Tr)11918465%12591316.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Simmons9754325.692
Cameran Brown (Tr)6128444.722
Rashad Amos (Tr)6326724.229
Branson Robinson (Tr)4614813.247
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ted Hurst711004614.170
Javon Robinson (Tr)58599410.346
Grant Hollier21288413.752
Jordan Simmons2819216.932

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Travis Pearson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson968211
Jaylen Jones665001
Kedrick Walker577310
D-Icey Hopkins513105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jartavius Flounoy226311
Kedrick Walker577310
Josiah Robinson968211
Richard Kramer (Tr)132200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bernard Causey III (Tr)192106
D-Icey Hopkins513105
Jordan Huff (Tr)471004