Georgia State at Georgia Southern - 2025 Matchup Preview

Georgia State Panthers at Georgia Southern Eagles

Saturday, October 18th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Georgia Southern -6.5 (58.5) (-238) Open: -6.0
Georgia Southern 41 - Georgia State: 24 (Sun Belt)

Panthers (1 - 11) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (18 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

GASO 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Georgia Southern -13.5 (SP+ GASO -15)
Projected Score: GAST: 24 - GASO: 37 (61)
GASO Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
GAST Travel: 176 miles

Eagles (7 - 6) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (20 - 18)
Avg Score : 28 - 32 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
GAST Players
GASO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Georgia State at Ole Miss	+38.5	62.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/6	Georgia State vs Memphis	+14.5	57.5	L 16 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/13	Georgia State vs Murray State	-31.5	63.5	W 37 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/20	Georgia State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	53.5	L 21 - 70	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Georgia State vs James Madison	+19.5	52.5	L 7 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Georgia State vs App State	+3.0	55.5	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/18	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	+6.5	58.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Thu 10/23	Georgia State vs South Alabama	+5.5	54.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+7.0	56.5	L 27 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/15	Georgia State vs Marshall	+9.5	59.5	L 18 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/22	Georgia State at Troy	+9.5	51.0	L 19 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/29	Georgia State at Old Dominion	+29.0	58.5	L 10 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule

Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Georgia Southern at Fresno State	+2.5	54.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/6	Georgia Southern at USC	+29.0	61.5	L 20 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/13	Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State	-3.0	59.0	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Georgia Southern vs Maine	-22.0	57.5	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Georgia Southern at James Madison	+14.5	54.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9	Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss	+3.0	59.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Georgia Southern vs Georgia State	-6.5	58.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Georgia Southern at Arkansas State	-1.5	59.5	L 24 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	Georgia Southern at App State	+4.5	62.5	W 25 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina	-3.0	59.5	W 45 - 40	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion	+10.0	62.0	L 10 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/29	Georgia Southern at Marshall	+10.5	61.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Mon 12/29	Georgia Southern vs App State	-10.0	58.5	W 29 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	#92 (.15)	41% (90)	19.8	42% (92)	2.94 (86)	134	41% (79)	256	3.85 (76)	#121 (.28)	48% (123)	37.8	49% (119)	46% (118)	4.42 (120)	49.1	1.6	1.4
GASO	#68 (.19)	43% (65)	27.9	46% (44)	2.84 (101)	128	40% (85)	238	4.57 (17)	#105 (.23)	45% (108)	32.3	47% (109)	44% (102)	3.81 (71)	48.3	1.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GASO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Offense	12	19.8	18	41.2%	3.85	1.6	21	390	134	256	4.5	42%	58%	42%	41%	18%	.15
GASO Defense	13	32.3	33	45.5%	3.81	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	47%	44%	14%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Defense	12	37.8	45.3	47.6%	4.42	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	49%	46%	14%	.28
GASO Offense	13	27.9	36.2	42.9%	4.57	1.7	22	366	128	238	3.8	46%	53%	46%	40%	17%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia State	12	29:58	20.7	36%	37%	5.1	49.1	1.6	1.4	4	1.5	0	30.6
Georgia Southern	13	30:09	21.8	45%	75%	5.6	48.3	1.7	1.5	4.6	1.6	1	27.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Offense	12	42% (118)	42% (92)	30	134	4.5	13 (105)	.06 (105)	2.94 (86)	67% (108)	10% (83)	0.95 (74)
GASO Defense	13	47% (27)	47% (109)	-	-	-	-	.18 (99)	3.1 (87)	72% (60)	8% (106)	1 (79)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Defense	12	58% (130)	49% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (115)	3.36 (117)	79% (104)	8% (124)	0.95 (51)
GASO Offense	13	46% (95)	46% (44)	33.8	128.2	3.8	24 (45)	.15 (57)	2.84 (101)	78% (36)	11% (94)	0.99 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Offense	12	58% (15)	41% (79)	22.6	37.4	255.8	6.8	11.3	21 (51)	13 (103)	.24 (78)	1.6 (66)	33% (98)	32% (59)	.37 (54)	7% (114)	2.1 (53)
GASO Defense	13	53% (108)	44% (102)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (97)	1.5 (52)	31% (89)	32% (94)	.35 (89)	5% (100)	2 (54)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Defense	12	42% (5)	46% (118)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.38 (124)	1.6 (80)	29% (108)	38% (125)	.46 (123)	6% (60)	1.8 (11)
GASO Offense	13	53% (39)	40% (85)	22.2	34.2	237.8	7	10.7	21 (51)	11 (72)	.23 (86)	1.5 (84)	31% (60)	33% (48)	.39 (43)	6% (65)	2 (90)

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -15.32 #122
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 8.02 #100
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 23.34 #128
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.5 #133
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.6 #116
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.1 #134

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -15.32 Georgia Southern: -6.36

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -24.5 Georgia Southern: -9.4

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -6.36 #93
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 15.06 #56
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 23.38 #129
2025 Talent Rating: 586.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Georgia Southern's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Georgia Southern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #103
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #130

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.3

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Georgia Southern 37
Georgia State 24

Projected Total Points: 61

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 33

Georgia Southern's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Georgia Southern	41	Georgia State	24	Georgia Southern -6.5	Georgia Southern	58.5	Over
2024	09/28	Georgia State	21	Georgia Southern	38	Georgia State -3.5	Georgia Southern	57.5	Over
2023	10/26	Georgia Southern	44	Georgia State	27	Georgia State -1.0	Georgia Southern	63.0	Over
2022	10/08	Georgia State	41	Georgia Southern	33	Georgia State -2.5	Georgia State	67.5	Over
2021	10/30	Georgia Southern	14	Georgia State	21	Georgia State -6	Georgia State	55.0	Under
2020	11/28	Georgia State	30	Georgia Southern	24	Georgia State -2.5	Georgia State	51.5	Over
2019	11/30	Georgia Southern	38	Georgia State	10	Georgia Southern -6.5	Georgia Southern	56.0	Under
2018	11/24	Georgia State	14	Georgia Southern	35	Georgia Southern -10	Georgia Southern	60.0	Under
2017	11/04	Georgia Southern	17	Georgia State	21	Georgia State -5.5	Georgia Southern	50.5	Under
2016	11/19	Georgia State	30	Georgia Southern	24	Georgia Southern -3.5	Georgia State	47.5	Over
2015	12/05	Georgia Southern	7	Georgia State	34	Georgia Southern -22	Georgia State	57.0	Under
2014	10/25	Georgia State	31	Georgia Southern	69	Georgia Southern -15	Georgia Southern	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia Southern	6	7	6 Overs
Georgia State	6	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 6	7 - 5	4 - 2	3 - 3
Road Teams	6 - 6	5 - 7	3 - 3	2 - 4

(#122) GAST at (#93) GASO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GAST	GASO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#122	#93
SP+SP+	#133	#103
Perf GradeGrade	#130	#108
OffenseOff	#128	#58
DefenseDef	#122	#131
Spec TeamsST	#90	#118
TalentTal	#94	#99
Blue ChipsBC%	#56	#65

Georgia State Notes(10/23) QB Cameran Brown taken over for TJ Finley (awful)
(10/23) This defense is shameful, DC Travis Pearson no good
(10/20) Most penalized team in CFB, have had 4 gms of 13+
(10/12) Too many paycheck games & now killed by App? Oof
(9/30) 3 paycheck games + FCS, know nothing about GSU
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
Georgia State Injury Report

Georgia Southern Notes(10/22) DL is statistically bottom 5 in CFB, line yds & havoc
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off Avg
(10/9) French 3 INT, team 12 flags, comeback short vs USM
(8/25) Will stay out West between @ Fresno & USC
(8/1) Two West coast games to open. Impact?
(8/1) QB French way to many TOs under pressure LY
(8/1) QB/RB/WR combo great potential as tops in SBC
(8/1) DBs could be strong TY but F7 has lots of ?
(7/12) Helton QBs are historically TO prone
(4/7) WR Brown (Aub) impressive. QB as good depth
(3/24) QB French back. Helton (WKU) added
(3/24) RB Arnold, Mbadinga exp'd. Gibbs big croot
Georgia Southern Injury Report

Georgia State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	GASO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#128	#131
SuccessSuc	#90	#108
ExplosiveExp	#46	#70
PPAPPA	#92	#105
PowerPwr	#100	#129
SP+SP+	#116	#130
Pts POPPO	#76	#71
HavocHav	#108	#110

Georgia State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#127	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	#92	#109
Run ExplRExp	#74	#79
PPAExp	#105	#99
Run BlockR Blk	#130	-
OL YdsOLY	#86	#87
Stuff RateStuff	#94	#52
TackleTak	-	#59

Georgia State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#63	#78
Pass SuccessPSuc	#79	#102
Pass ExplPExl	#66	#52
PPAExp	#78	#97
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#132	#134
F7 HavocF7	#83	#106
DB HavocDB	#114	#100

Georgia Southern on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	GAST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#122
SuccessSuc	#65	#123
ExplosiveExp	#77	#46
PPAPPA	#68	#121
PowerPwr	#56	#128
SP+SP+	#59	#134
Pts POPPO	#17	#120
HavocHav	#87	#109

Georgia Southern Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#51	#111
Run SuccessRSuc	#44	#119
Run ExplRExp	#57	#51
PPAExp	#57	#115
Run BlockR Blk	#90	-
OL YdsOLY	#101	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#98	#111
TackleTak	-	#45

Georgia Southern Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#74	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	#85	#118
Pass ExplPExl	#84	#80
PPAExp	#86	#124
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#12	#109
F7 HavocF7	#94	#124
DB HavocDB	#65	#60

Program Comparison
GASO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Paulson Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Georgia Southern -6.5 (58.5)
Georgia Southern won vs Georgia State this year (41-24)

Previous Matchups
Georgia Southern beat Georgia State last year (41-24)
Georgia Southern beat Georgia State in 2024 (38-21)
Georgia Southern beat Georgia State in 2023 (44-27)

GAST's OC Jim Chaney (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley (Tr)	127	201	63%	1244	6	7	6.2
Cameran Brown (Tr)	119	184	65%	1259	13	1	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Simmons	97	543	2	5.6	92
Cameran Brown (Tr)	61	284	4	4.7	22
Rashad Amos (Tr)	63	267	2	4.2	29
Branson Robinson (Tr)	46	148	1	3.2	47

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ted Hurst	71	1004	6	14.1	70
Javon Robinson (Tr)	58	599	4	10.3	46
Grant Hollier	21	288	4	13.7	52
Jordan Simmons	28	192	1	6.9	32

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Travis Pearson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josiah Robinson	96	8	2	1	1
Jaylen Jones	66	5	0	0	1
Kedrick Walker	57	7	3	1	0
D-Icey Hopkins	51	3	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jartavius Flounoy	22	6	3	1	1
Kedrick Walker	57	7	3	1	0
Josiah Robinson	96	8	2	1	1
Richard Kramer (Tr)	13	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Bernard Causey III (Tr)	19	2	1	6
D-Icey Hopkins	51	3	1	5
Jordan Huff (Tr)	47	1	0	4

GASO's OC Ryan Aplin (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JC French	249	390	64%	2924	20	8	7.5
Turner Helton (Tr)	14	26	54%	74	1	0	2.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
OJ Arnold	144	1037	5	7.2	62
JC French	133	315	6	2.4	21
David Mbadinga	49	196	1	4.0	16
Weston Bryan	31	111	3	3.6	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Camden Brown (Tr)	65	1079	14	16.6	73
Marcus Sanders Jr.	50	797	5	15.9	52
Dalen Cobb	57	506	3	8.9	43
OJ Arnold	21	212	1	10.1	41

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jusfin Meyers	90	1	1	5
Brendan Harrington (Tr)	85	2	1	3
Brandon Tyson (Tr)	84	3	6	2
Ayden Jackson	74	4	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MJ Stroud	33	16	7	6	2
Caleb Moore (Tr)	27	4	2	2	1
Devin Collier	24	1	1	0	0
CJ Allen	16	2	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tracy Hill Jr.	41	4	1	0	7
Jusfin Meyers	90	1	0	1	5
Elijah McDowell	9	0	0	0	4