Louisville at Boston College - 2024 Matchup Preview

Louisville Cardinals at Boston College Eagles

Friday, October 25th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Louisville -7.0 (54.0) (-270) Open: -7.5 | 54.0
Louisville 31 - Boston College: 27 (ACC)

Cardinals (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LOU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -8.5 (SP+ LOU -12.5)
Projected Score: LOU: 31 - BC: 23 (54)
LOU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
LOU Travel: 819 miles

Eagles (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bill O'Brien (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 33 (26 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LOU Players
BC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Louisville vs Austin Peay	-38.5	54.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Louisville vs Jacksonville State	-27.5	56.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-9.5	56.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Louisville at Notre Dame	+6.5	45.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Louisville vs SMU	-6.5	55.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Louisville at Virginia	-7.0	54.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Louisville vs Miami	+4.5	61.5	L 45 - 52	O	N
Fri 10/25	Louisville at Boston College	-7.0	54.0	W 31 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	Louisville at Clemson	+11.0	62.5	W 33 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Louisville at Stanford	-21.0	57.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/23	Louisville vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	57.0	W 37 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Louisville at Kentucky	-3.5	48.5	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/31	Louisville vs Washington	+1.0	50.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

Boston College's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/2	Boston College at Florida State	+16.5	50.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Boston College vs Duquesne	-33.5	52.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Boston College at Missouri	+14.5	51.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Boston College vs Michigan State	-4.5	45.5	W 23 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/28	Boston College vs Western Kentucky	-7.5	48.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Boston College at Virginia	+2.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/17	Boston College at Virginia Tech	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 42	O	N
Fri 10/25	Boston College vs Louisville	+7.0	54.0	L 27 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Boston College vs Syracuse	-5.5	51.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Boston College at SMU	+19.0	54.5	L 28 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boston College vs North Carolina	+2.0	50.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Boston College vs Pittsburgh	-3.5	50.5	W 34 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/28	Boston College vs Nebraska	+3.0	47.5	L 15 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#46 (.23)	48% (11)	29.9	51% (12)	3.07 (80)	179	47% (26)	236	4.04 (53)	#12 (.08)	36% (13)	21.2	35% (14)	37% (16)	3.9 (77)	48.6	1.4	1.4
BC	#62 (.21)	42% (63)	25.4	46% (35)	3.31 (29)	197	37% (106)	184	3.92 (66)	#113 (.26)	43% (82)	32.8	43% (66)	44% (106)	4.41 (120)	55.2	1.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	14	29.9	23	48.4%	4.04	1.4	21	415	179	236	4.7	51%	48%	51%	47%	16%	.23
BC Defense	13	32.8	31.9	43.1%	4.41	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	43%	44%	12%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	14	21.2	25.5	35.8%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	37%	19%	.08
BC Offense	13	25.4	25.7	42.3%	3.92	1.5	21	381	197	184	4.7	61%	38%	46%	37%	13%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	14	32:13	20.8	37%	54%	5.6	48.6	1.4	1.4	5.4	2.3	1	30.8
Boston College	13	31:07	21.5	41%	76%	6.5	55.2	1.5	1.1	2.9	0.8	1	28.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	14	51% (57)	51% (12)	38.1	178.5	4.7	31 (17)	.2 (43)	3.07 (80)	73% (78)	10% (64)	0.93 (101)
BC Defense	13	55% (118)	43% (66)	-	-	-	-	.15 (77)	3.09 (65)	82% (113)	7% (128)	1.08 (107)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	14	47% (26)	35% (14)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (14)	2.4 (3)	68% (37)	12% (26)	1 (68)
BC Offense	13	61% (9)	46% (35)	42	196.7	4.7	25 (37)	.26 (17)	3.31 (29)	88% (1)	7% (17)	1.12 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	14	48% (74)	47% (26)	19	29.1	236.4	8.1	12.4	22 (61)	12 (85)	.3 (64)	1.6 (82)	26% (6)	37% (18)	.45 (33)	6% (74)	2.1 (42)
BC Defense	13	44% (16)	44% (106)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.43 (125)	1.7 (105)	31% (84)	32% (98)	.37 (99)	4% (123)	2.1 (82)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	14	53% (111)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.19 (23)	1.8 (123)	37% (7)	23% (3)	.24 (35)	7% (32)	2.4 (131)
BC Offense	13	38% (125)	37% (106)	15.7	27.8	184.2	6.6	11.7	15 (96)	14 (107)	.17 (103)	1.6 (71)	29% (18)	28% (89)	.39 (45)	6% (56)	2.4 (2)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 12.44 #20
Louisville's Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Louisville's Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
2024 Talent Rating: 391.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Louisville's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Louisville's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.44 Boston College: 4.395

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 13.6 Boston College: 1.2

Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: 4.395 #51
Boston College's Offense Rating: 19.12 #75
Boston College's Defense Rating: 8.62 #58
2024 Talent Rating: 368.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Boston College's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Boston College's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #70
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #62
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #56

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 31
Boston College 23

Projected Total Points: 54

Boston College Scoring
Offense: 25.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.9

Boston College's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Louisville	38	Boston College	24	Louisville -25.5	Boston College	54.5	Over
2024	10/25	Boston College	27	Louisville	31	Louisville -7.0	Boston College	54.0	Over
2023	09/23	Louisville	56	Boston College	28	Louisville -14	Louisville	53.0	Over
2022	10/01	Boston College	34	Louisville	33	Louisville -13.5	Boston College	48.5	Over
2021	10/23	Louisville	28	Boston College	14	Louisville -4	Louisville	57.5	Under
2020	11/28	Boston College	34	Louisville	27	Boston College -1	Boston College	57.0	Over
2019	10/05	Louisville	41	Boston College	39	Louisville -3.5	Boston College	61.0	Over
2018	10/13	Boston College	38	Louisville	20	Boston College -11	Boston College	56.5	Over
2017	10/14	Louisville	42	Boston College	45	Louisville -20	Boston College	60.0	Over
2016	11/05	Boston College	7	Louisville	52	Louisville -24.5	Louisville	52.0	Over
2015	10/24	Louisville	17	Boston College	14	Louisville -8.5	Boston College	37.0	Under
2014	11/08	Boston College	19	Louisville	38	Louisville -2.5	Louisville	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boston College	4	8	9 Overs
Louisville	8	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	6 - 6	4 - 4	2 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 8	6 - 6	2 - 2	4 - 4

(#20) LOU at (#51) BC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LOU	BC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#20	#51
SP+SP+	#21	#70
Perf GradeGrade	#11	#56
OffenseOff	#12	#64
DefenseDef	#16	#33
Spec TeamsST	#35	#114
TalentTal	#37	#50
Blue ChipsBC%	#41	#82

Louisville Notes(12/14) Signed QB Miller Moss (USC)
(11/19) DB Holloway D.V arrest after blowing Stan game
(11/18) Dumbest L @ Stan. Off was decent, Pass D torched
(11/2) 200 yds Rushing, Def owned Clemson. Easy Nov
(10/23) Expl WR Lacy (#3) ops out before BC game
(10/19) Def torched by Miami. Great fight, Shough tough
(10/13) Def mauled by UVA, season saving comeback W
(10/6) Season slipping after SMU L. Rgame/Pass D bad
(9/28) Outgained ND by 100 yds. 3 TOs. Rgame better
(9/28) Shough a tough QB, gutty vs ND. Should've won
(9/23) WR J Thompson out for season (knee)
(9/23) Star CB Riley ? for ND game (ankle)
Louisville Injury Report

Boston College Notes(11/25) Rgame mauled NC, James OK, Def great in W
(11/18) Good fight @ SMU, QB James/Rgame meh, Def OK
(11/14) QB Castellanos entering the portal
(11/13) Rgame 321 yds, 6.7 ypc, att only 13 pass in Cuse W
(11/12) QB Cast. benched, James to start vs SMU
(11/8) No Kicking game, att only 1 FG, missed XPs
(10/17) Run D mauled by VT 368 yds, 9.2 ypc. Rgame bad
(10/6) Off bad, Rgame awful, 3 TO's in L @ UVA
(9/28) OG by WKU, Off awful w/ QB James. 3 TOs to W
(9/27) QB Castellanos out vs WKU (und inj)
(9/23) QB Cast. much improved. 10 TDs, 2 Ints so far
(9/23) Outgained by MSU but 4 TOs in big W
Boston College Injury Report

Louisville on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	BC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#33
SuccessSuc	#11	#82
ExplosiveExp	#105	#105
PPAPPA	#46	#113
PowerPwr	#26	#58
SP+SP+	#7	#56
Pts POPPO	#53	#120
HavocHav	#68	#130

Louisville Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	BC Def
Run GameRun	#22	#30
Run SuccessRSuc	#12	#66
Run ExplRExp	#101	#107
PPAExp	#43	#77
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#65
Stuff RateStuff	#110	#76
TackleTak	-	#39

Louisville Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	BC Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#106
Pass ExplPExl	#82	#105
PPAExp	#64	#125
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#79	#62
F7 HavocF7	#64	#128
DB HavocDB	#74	#123

Boston College on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	LOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#64	#16
SuccessSuc	#63	#13
ExplosiveExp	#79	#122
PPAPPA	#62	#12
PowerPwr	#75	#40
SP+SP+	#62	#40
Pts POPPO	#66	#77
HavocHav	#20	#23

Boston College Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#104	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	#35	#14
Run ExplRExp	#18	#68
PPAExp	#17	#14
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	#29	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#47	#7
TackleTak	-	#65

Boston College Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#49	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#71	#123
PPAExp	#103	#23
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#35	#17
F7 HavocF7	#17	#26
DB HavocDB	#56	#32

Program Comparison
BC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Louisville 7.0 (54.0)
Louisville won at Boston College this year (31-27)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Boston College last year (38-24)
Louisville beat Boston College in 2024 (31-27)
Louisville beat Boston College in 2023 (56-28)

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Shough (Tr)	244	389	63%	3195	23	6	8.2
Harrison Bailey	24	33	73%	227	3	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaac Brown	165	1173	11	7.1	77
Duke Watson	67	597	7	8.9	68
Keyjuan Brown	47	243	3	5.2	24
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)	50	178	3	3.6	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Corey Brooks (Tr)	61	1013	9	16.6	86
Chris Bell	43	737	4	17.1	68
Mark Redman (Tr)	23	251	3	10.9	32
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	17	230	0	13.5	58

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
TJ Quinn	82	4	2	0
Stanquan Clark	76	8	1	2
M.J. Griffin	63	2	1	2
Tamarion McDonald (Tr)	58	4	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ashton Gillotte	43	10	5	10
Tramel Logan Jr.	20	6	4	2
Jared Dawson	19	7	4	0
Thor Griffith (Tr)	19	5	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quincy Riley	33	3	0	0	9
Corey Thornton (Tr)	38	0	0	1	6
Tayon Holloway (Tr)	16	2	1	0	5

BC's OC Will Lawing (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Grayson James (Tr)	106	166	64%	1202	6	2	7.2
Thomas Castellanos	99	161	62%	1366	18	5	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kye Robichaux	175	744	10	4.3	41
Treshaun Ward (Tr)	77	406	2	5.3	36
Jordan Mcdonald (Tr)	53	361	3	6.8	41
Turbo Richard	55	278	2	5.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lewis Bond	67	689	3	10.3	49
Reed Harris	17	486	4	28.6	72
Kamari Morales (Tr)	28	325	6	11.6	54
Jeremiah Franklin	27	311	3	11.5	34

View Boston College's Full Roster

BC's DC Tim Lewis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KP Price	81	2	1	1	5
Donovan Ezeiruaku	76	19	14	14	1
Daveon Crouch	74	7	2	3	3
Carter Davis	43	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan Ezeiruaku	76	19	14	14	1
Quintayvious Hutchins	29	6	4	8	0
Owen Stoudmire	29	4	3	2	0
Daveon Crouch	74	7	2	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KP Price	81	2	1	1	5
Ryan Turner (Tr)	13	2	1	0	4
Amari Jackson	18	0	0	0	4