Louisville at Kentucky - 2024 Matchup Preview

Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats

Saturday, November 30th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Louisville -3.5 (48.5) (-185) Open: -3.5 | 48.5
Louisville 41 - Kentucky: 14

Cardinals (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 24 (31 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Louisville -6.5 (SP+ LOU -8)
Projected Score: LOU: 28 - UK: 22 (50)
LOU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
LOU Travel: 69 miles

Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LOU Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Louisville vs Austin Peay	-38.5	54.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Louisville vs Jacksonville State	-27.5	56.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-9.5	56.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Louisville at Notre Dame	+6.5	45.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Louisville vs SMU	-6.5	55.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Louisville at Virginia	-7.0	54.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Louisville vs Miami	+4.5	61.5	L 45 - 52	O	N
Fri 10/25	Louisville at Boston College	-7.0	54.0	W 31 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	Louisville at Clemson	+11.0	62.5	W 33 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Louisville at Stanford	-21.0	57.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/23	Louisville vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	57.0	W 37 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Louisville at Kentucky	-3.5	48.5	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/31	Louisville vs Washington	+1.0	50.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Kentucky vs Southern Miss	-25.5	50.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Kentucky vs South Carolina	-9.5	41.5	L 6 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/14	Kentucky vs Georgia	+24.0	45.0	L 12 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Kentucky vs Ohio	-19.0	42.0	W 41 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Kentucky at Ole Miss	+15.0	51.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Kentucky vs Vanderbilt	-12.5	44.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Kentucky at Florida	-2.5	42.5	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Kentucky vs Auburn	-2.0	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/2	Kentucky at Tennessee	+17.5	45.5	L 18 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Kentucky vs Murray State	-41.5	54.5	W 48 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Kentucky at Texas	+18.5	47.0	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Kentucky vs Louisville	+3.5	48.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)	36.5	48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)	24.1	40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)	20.6	47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)	22.1	49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)		47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)		49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	13	36.5	31.3	46.4%	4.27	0.8	20	424	173	251	5.8	45%	54%	48%	45%	13%	.31
UK Defense	12	22.1	17.6	46%	3.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	49%	42%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	13	24.1	25.2	40.2%	3.98	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	40%	40%	16%	.18
UK Offense	12	20.6	21.9	41.5%	3.49	1.9	19	331	146	185	4	54%	46%	47%	35%	19%	.09

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	13	27:39	20.1	40%	40%	5.9	46.1	0.8	1.2	5.8	2.2	1	30.3
Kentucky	12	29:32	19.4	34%	44%	6.3	52.1	1.9	1.3	5.6	1.8	2	27

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	13	45% (103)	48% (20)	29.9	172.7	5.8	27 (30)	.2 (35)	3.09 (56)	65% (116)	8% (27)	1.04 (43)
UK Defense	12	58% (129)	49% (122)	-	-	-	-	.14 (75)	3 (67)	78% (101)	12% (32)	0.88 (24)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	13	49% (50)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	.08 (43)	2.9 (51)	65% (25)	11% (43)	0.99 (71)
UK Offense	12	54% (37)	47% (31)	36.7	146.4	4	11 (116)	.05 (107)	3.02 (71)	73% (71)	13% (120)	0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	13	54% (32)	45% (30)	19.6	30.9	251.5	8.1	12.8	23 (41)	6 (10)	.41 (9)	1.7 (34)	30% (40)	38% (8)	.5 (9)	5% (40)	2.1 (42)
UK Defense	12	42% (7)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.19 (46)	1.5 (27)	29% (109)	31% (83)	.3 (68)	5% (95)	2 (61)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	13	51% (88)	40% (65)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.27 (87)	1.7 (111)	31% (78)	33% (99)	.26 (48)	5% (94)	1.8 (14)
UK Offense	12	46% (97)	35% (123)	13.9	26	184.8	7.1	13.3	15 (98)	17 (127)	.13 (117)	1.9 (10)	33% (92)	28% (104)	.18 (114)	7% (103)	2.1 (46)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 12.44 #20
Louisville's Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Louisville's Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Louisville's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Louisville's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.44 Kentucky: 6.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 13.6 Kentucky: 5.5

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 6.32 #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 28 #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Louisville's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 28
Kentucky 22

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 26
Kentucky 26

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 27
Kentucky 23

Total Points: 50

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Louisville	41	Kentucky	0	Louisville -1.0	Louisville	45.5	Under
2024	11/30	Kentucky	14	Louisville	41	Louisville -3.5	Louisville	48.5	Over
2023	11/25	Louisville	31	Kentucky	38	Louisville -7.5	Kentucky	47.5	Over
2022	11/26	Kentucky	26	Louisville	13	Kentucky -3.5	Kentucky	42.5	Under
2021	11/27	Louisville	21	Kentucky	52	Louisville -3	Kentucky	58.0	Over
2019	11/30	Kentucky	45	Louisville	13	Kentucky -3.5	Kentucky	51.0	Over
2018	11/24	Louisville	10	Kentucky	56	Kentucky -17	Kentucky	53.0	Over
2017	11/25	Kentucky	17	Louisville	44	Louisville -10	Louisville	68.0	Under
2016	11/26	Louisville	38	Kentucky	41	Louisville -26	Kentucky	70.5	Over
2015	11/28	Kentucky	24	Louisville	38	Louisville -4	Louisville	51.5	Over
2014	11/29	Louisville	44	Kentucky	40	Louisville -14	Kentucky	0
2013	09/14	Kentucky	13	Louisville	27	Louisville -10.5	Louisville	0
2012	09/02	Louisville	32	Kentucky	14
2011	09/17	Kentucky	17	Louisville	24
2010	09/04	Louisville	16	Kentucky	23
2009	09/19	Kentucky	31	Louisville	27
2008	08/31	Louisville	2	Kentucky	27
2007	09/15	Kentucky	40	Louisville	34
2006	09/03	Louisville	59	Kentucky	28
2005	09/04	Kentucky	24	Louisville	31
2004	09/05	Louisville	28	Kentucky	0
2003	08/31	Kentucky	24	Louisville	40
2002	09/01	Louisville	17	Kentucky	22
2001	09/01	Kentucky	10	Louisville	36
2000	09/01	Louisville	40	Kentucky	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	11	7	7 Overs
Louisville	14	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 15	3 - 9	3 - 4	0 - 5
Road Teams	15 - 10	9 - 3	5 - 0	4 - 3

(#20) LOU at (#54) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LOU	UK
Power RatePwr	#20	#54
SP+SP+	#21	#45
Perf GradeGrade	#11	#83
OffenseOff	#12	#95
DefenseDef	#16	#75
Spec TeamsST	#35	#32
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#41	#21

Louisville Notes(12/14) Signed QB Miller Moss (USC)
(11/19) DB Holloway D.V arrest after blowing Stan game
(11/18) Dumbest L @ Stan. Off was decent, Pass D torched
(11/2) 200 yds Rushing, Def owned Clemson. Easy Nov
(10/23) Expl WR Lacy (#3) ops out before BC game
(10/19) Def torched by Miami. Great fight, Shough tough
(10/13) Def mauled by UVA, season saving comeback W
(10/6) Season slipping after SMU L. Rgame/Pass D bad
(9/28) Outgained ND by 100 yds. 3 TOs. Rgame better
(9/28) Shough a tough QB, gutty vs ND. Should've won
(9/23) WR J Thompson out for season (knee)
(9/23) Star CB Riley ? for ND game (ankle)
Louisville Injury Report

Kentucky Notes(11/23) 30 car, 21 yds vs Tex. QB Boley bad, Def fought
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start
(8/18) Starting RB Trayanum out for opener, poss more
Kentucky Injury Report

Louisville on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	UK Def
Perf GradePerf	#12	#75
SuccessSuc	#26	#111
ExplosiveExp	#14	#9
PPAPPA	#15	#62
PowerPwr	#26	#62
SP+SP+	#7	#26
Pts POPPO	#31	#31
HavocHav	#23	#56

Louisville Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#22	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#20	#122
Run ExplRExp	#43	#24
PPAExp	#35	#75
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#56	#67
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#48
TackleTak	-	#104

Louisville Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#30	#75
Pass ExplPExl	#34	#27
PPAExp	#9	#46
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#79	#23
F7 HavocF7	#27	#32
DB HavocDB	#40	#95

Kentucky on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	LOU Def
Perf GradePerf	#95	#16
SuccessSuc	#89	#49
ExplosiveExp	#123	#109
PPAPPA	#118	#73
PowerPwr	#96	#40
SP+SP+	#88	#40
Pts POPPO	#104	#87
HavocHav	#121	#62

Kentucky Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#31	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	#31	#44
Run ExplRExp	#133	#71
PPAExp	#107	#43
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#71	#51
Stuff RateStuff	#78	#22
TackleTak	-	#65

Kentucky Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	#123	#65
Pass ExplPExl	#10	#111
PPAExp	#117	#87
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#116	#17
F7 HavocF7	#120	#43
DB HavocDB	#103	#94

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 34° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 14
Louisville 3.5 (48.5)
Louisville won at Kentucky this year (41-14)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Kentucky last year (41-14)
Kentucky beat Louisville in 2023 (38-31)
Kentucky beat Louisville in 2022 (26-13)

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Shough (Tr)	244	389	63%	3195	23	6	8.2
Harrison Bailey	24	33	73%	227	3	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaac Brown	165	1173	11	7.1	77
Duke Watson	67	597	7	8.9	68
Keyjuan Brown	47	243	3	5.2	24
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)	50	178	3	3.6	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Corey Brooks (Tr)	61	1013	9	16.6	86
Chris Bell	43	737	4	17.1	68
Mark Redman (Tr)	23	251	3	10.9	32
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	17	230	0	13.5	58

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
TJ Quinn	82	4	2	0
Stanquan Clark	76	8	1	2
M.J. Griffin	63	2	1	2
Tamarion McDonald (Tr)	58	4	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ashton Gillotte	43	10	5	10
Tramel Logan Jr.	20	6	4	2
Jared Dawson	19	7	4	0
Thor Griffith (Tr)	19	5	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quincy Riley	33	3	0	0	9
Corey Thornton (Tr)	38	0	0	1	6
Tayon Holloway (Tr)	16	2	1	0	5

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	125	218	57%	1593	10	8	7.3
Cutter Boley	26	53	49%	338	2	4	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamarion Wilcox	92	590	2	6.4	50
Demie Sumo	129	586	5	4.5	22
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)	49	183	2	3.7	24
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	90	131	0	1.5	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	47	715	2	15.2	42
Barion Brown	29	361	3	12.4	63
Jay Maclin	13	313	4	24.1	83
Demie Sumo	20	154	0	7.7	18

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Jordan Lovett	63	1	0	0	1
Alex Afari Jr.	62	11	2	1	1
Zion Childress	55	6	1	6	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.J. Weaver	31	7	4	4	1
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Tre'Vonn Rybka	34	5	3	2	1
Octavious Oxendine	20	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Terhyon Nichols	10	0	0	5
Maxwell Hairston	19	1	1	4
J.Q. Hardaway	47	0	0	3