Louisville at Kentucky Game Matchup
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Louisville -3.5 (48.5) (-185)  Open: -3.5 | 48.5
Louisville 41 - Kentucky: 14

 
Cardinals (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 24 (31 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Louisville -6.5   (SP+ LOU -8)
Projected Score: LOU: 28 - UK: 21 (51)
LOU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
LOU Travel: 69 miles
Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Louisville's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Louisville vs Austin Peay-38.554.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/7 Louisville vs Jacksonville State-27.556.5W 49 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Louisville vs Georgia Tech-9.556.0W 31 - 19UY
Sat 9/28 Louisville at Notre Dame+6.545.0L 24 - 31ON
Sat 10/5 Louisville vs SMU-6.555.0L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 Louisville at Virginia-7.054.0W 24 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Louisville vs Miami+4.561.5L 45 - 52ON
Fri 10/25 Louisville at Boston College-7.054.0W 31 - 27ON
Sat 11/2 Louisville at Clemson+11.062.5W 33 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Louisville at Stanford-21.057.5L 35 - 38ON
Sat 11/23 Louisville vs Pittsburgh-7.057.0W 37 - 9UY
Sat 11/30 Louisville at Kentucky-3.548.5W 41 - 14OY
Tue 12/31 Louisville vs Washington+1.050.5W 35 - 34OY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 5, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Kentucky vs Southern Miss-25.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Kentucky vs South Carolina-9.541.5L 6 - 31UN
Sat 9/14 Kentucky vs Georgia+24.045.0L 12 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Kentucky vs Ohio-19.042.0W 41 - 6OY
Sat 9/28 Kentucky at Ole Miss+15.051.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Kentucky vs Vanderbilt-12.544.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Kentucky at Florida-2.542.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/26 Kentucky vs Auburn-2.043.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/2 Kentucky at Tennessee+17.545.5L 18 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Kentucky vs Murray State-41.554.5W 48 - 6UY
Sat 11/23 Kentucky at Texas+18.547.0L 14 - 31UY
Sat 11/30 Kentucky vs Louisville+3.548.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#46 (.23)48% (11)36.551% (12)3.07 (80)17947% (26)2364.04 (53)#12 (.08)36% (13)24.135% (14)37% (16)3.9 (77)48.61.41.4
UK#49 (.22)40% (93)20.641% (88)2.79 (118)12840% (83)2124.46 (23)#50 (.16)43% (87)22.142% (56)45% (116)3.95 (84)50.81.51.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1436.531.348.4%4.041.4214151792364.751%48%51%47%16%.23
UK Defense1322.117.643.3%3.951.4 - - - - - 48%51%42%45%14%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1424.125.235.8%3.91.4 - - - - - 47%53%35%37%19%.08
UK Offense1320.621.940%4.461.5173391282124.943%55%41%40%18%.22

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1432:1320.837%54%5.648.61.41.45.42.3130.8
Kentucky1327:3416.938%20%6.150.81.51.45.52629.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1451% (57)51% (12)38.1178.54.731 (17).2 (43)3.07 (80)73% (78)10% (64)0.93 (101)
UK Defense1348% (46)42% (56) - - - - .1 (40)2.87 (29)70% (48)10% (75)0.87 (18)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1447% (26)35% (14) - - - - -.01 (14)2.4 (3)68% (37)12% (26)1 (68)
UK Offense1343% (108)41% (88)26.1127.74.918 (77).15 (71)2.79 (118)68% (106)11% (79)1.12 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1448% (74)47% (26)1929.1236.48.112.422 (61)12 (85).3 (64)1.6 (82)26% (6)37% (18).45 (33)6% (74)2.1 (42)
UK Defense1351% (92)45% (116) - - - - - - 11 (53).23 (45)1.4 (11)31% (76)30% (70).39 (104)5% (114)2.1 (75)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1453% (111)37% (16) - - - - - - 13 (26).19 (23)1.8 (123)37% (7)23% (3).24 (35)7% (32)2.4 (131)
UK Offense1355% (26)40% (83)16.228.8211.67.41325 (37)11 (68).32 (54)1.7 (25)35% (114)28% (88).31 (77)8% (113)2.2 (19)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 12.44 #20
Louisville's Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Louisville's Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
2024 Talent Rating: 770.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Louisville's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Louisville's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.44   Kentucky: 6.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 13.6   Kentucky: 5.5




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 6.32 #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
2024 Talent Rating: 830.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 28 #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Louisville's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 28
Kentucky 21


Projected Total Points: 51
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Kentucky14Louisville41LouisvilleLouisville -3.5Louisville48.5Over
202311/25Louisville31Kentucky38KentuckyLouisville -7.5Kentucky47.5Over
202211/26Kentucky26Louisville13KentuckyKentucky -3.5Kentucky42.5Under
202111/27Louisville21Kentucky52KentuckyLouisville -3Kentucky58.0Over
201911/30Kentucky45Louisville13KentuckyKentucky -3.5Kentucky51.0Over
201811/24Louisville10Kentucky56KentuckyKentucky -17Kentucky53.0Over
201711/25Kentucky17Louisville44LouisvilleLouisville -10Louisville68.0Under
201611/26Louisville38Kentucky41KentuckyLouisville -26Kentucky70.5Over
201511/28Kentucky24Louisville38LouisvilleLouisville -4Louisville51.5Over
201411/29Louisville44Kentucky40LouisvilleLouisville -14Kentucky0
201309/14Kentucky13Louisville27LouisvilleLouisville -10.5Louisville0
201209/02Louisville32Kentucky14Louisville
201109/17Kentucky17Louisville24Louisville
201009/04Louisville16Kentucky23Kentucky
200909/19Kentucky31Louisville27Kentucky
200808/31Louisville2Kentucky27Kentucky
200709/15Kentucky40Louisville34Kentucky
200609/03Louisville59Kentucky28Louisville
200509/04Kentucky24Louisville31Louisville
200409/05Louisville28Kentucky0Louisville
200308/31Kentucky24Louisville40Louisville
200209/01Louisville17Kentucky22Kentucky
200109/01Kentucky10Louisville36Louisville
200009/01Louisville40Kentucky34Louisville
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky1177 Overs
Louisville1342 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 152 - 92 - 40 - 5
Road Teams15 - 99 - 25 - 04 - 2

(#20) Louisville Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 12.44 #20
Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40
Talent Rating: 770.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.27 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.98 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Louisville Notes
(11/19) DB Holloway D.V arrest after blowing Stan game
(11/18) Dumbest L @ Stan. Off was decent, Pass D torched
(11/2) 200 yds Rushing, Def owned Clemson. Easy Nov
(10/23) Expl WR Lacy (#3) ops out before BC game
(10/19) Def torched by Miami. Great fight, Shough tough
(10/13) Def mauled by UVA, season saving comeback W
(10/6) Season slipping after SMU L. Rgame/Pass D bad
(9/28) Outgained ND by 100 yds. 3 TOs. Rgame better
(9/28) Shough a tough QB, gutty vs ND. Should've won
(9/23) WR J Thompson out for season (knee)
Louisville     Ratings Matchup     Kentucky
Power #20
#54
Off #26
#96
Def #40
#62
Talent #35
#26
SP+ #21
#45
SP+ Off #7
#88
SP+ Def #40
#26

Rematch from Week 14
Louisville 3.5 (48.5)
Louisville won at Kentucky this year (41-14)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Kentucky last year (41-14)
Kentucky beat Louisville in 2023 (38-31)
Kentucky beat Louisville in 2022 (26-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 34° - Wind: 10 mph


Team Information
Injuries: LOU | UK
Depth Chart: LOU | UK
Rosters: LOU | UK
(#54) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.32 #54
Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Talent Rating: 830.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 28 #21
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Kentucky Notes
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start


  
Louisville's OC Brian Brohm
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tyler Shough (Tr)24438963%31952368.2
Harrison Bailey243373%227306.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown1651173117.177
Duke Watson6759778.968
Keyjuan Brown4724335.224
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)5017833.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Corey Brooks (Tr)611013916.686
Chris Bell43737417.168
Mark Redman (Tr)23251310.932
Caullin Lacy (Tr)18196110.934

View Louisville's Full Roster
Louisville's DC Ron English
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn824200
Stanquan Clark768102
Tamarion McDonald (Tr)584201
D'Angelo Hutchinson522003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tramel Logan Jr.206420
Jared Dawson197400
Thor Griffith (Tr)195300
Jordan Guerad (Tr)224321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Thornton (Tr)380016
Tayon Holloway (Tr)162105
D'Angelo Hutchinson522003

Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)12521857%15931087.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)4918323.724
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)9013101.522
Jason Patterson2011105.623
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key47715215.242
Barion Brown29361312.463
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Hardley Gilmore IV6153125.552

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
J.Q. Hardaway470003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Keeshawn Silver261120
Steven Soles Jr.52110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
J.Q. Hardaway470003
DJ Waller Jr. (Tr)130002