USC at Washington - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
USC -2 (55.0) (-125) Open: -3.0
Washington 26 - USC: 21 (Big Ten)

Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (22 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USC is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: USC -5.5 (SP+ USC -9)
Projected Score: USC: 29 - WASH: 23 (52)
USC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
USC Travel: 965 miles

Huskies (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jedd Fisch (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (29 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
WASH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	USC vs LSU	+4.0	66.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/7	USC vs Utah State	-30.5	62.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	USC at Michigan	-4.0	44.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/28	USC vs Wisconsin	-14.0	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/5	USC at Minnesota	-8.5	45.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	USC vs Penn State	+3.5	51.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/19	USC at Maryland	-6.5	56.5	L 28 - 29	O	N
Fri 10/25	USC vs Rutgers	-14.0	57.0	W 42 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/2	USC at Washington	-2.0	55.0	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	USC vs Nebraska	-6.5	51.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	USC at UCLA	-5.0	53.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/30	USC vs Notre Dame	+6.5	52.5	L 35 - 49	O	N
Fri 12/27	USC vs Texas A&M	+3.5	56.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Washington's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Washington vs Weber State	-29.0	51.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Washington vs Eastern Michigan	-25.0	48.5	W 30 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/14	Washington vs Washington State	-4.0	56.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/21	Washington vs Northwestern	-11.5	42.5	W 24 - 5	U	Y
Fri 9/27	Washington at Rutgers	+1.5	44.5	L 18 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/5	Washington vs Michigan	-1.5	39.5	W 27 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Washington at Iowa	+2.5	41.5	L 16 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Washington at Indiana	+5.5	54.0	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/2	Washington vs USC	+2.0	55.0	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Washington at Penn State	+13.5	48.0	L 6 - 35	U	N
Fri 11/15	Washington vs UCLA	-4.5	47.0	W 31 - 19	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Washington at Oregon	+17.5	50.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Tue 12/31	Washington vs Louisville	-1.0	50.5	L 34 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)	30.2	52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)	24.1	44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
WASH	#32 (.25)	47% (21)	23.4	46% (36)	3.29 (28)	122	48% (13)	233	3.52 (102)	#54 (.14)	43% (83)	23.8	48% (116)	38% (31)	4.04 (95)	48.7	0.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
WASH	#32 (.25)	47% (21)		46% (36)	3.29 (28)	122	48% (13)	233	3.52 (102)	#54 (.14)	43% (83)		48% (116)	38% (31)	4.04 (95)	48.7	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	30.2	21.8	48.4%	3.76	1.4	21	408	138	269	5.5	40%	60%	52%	46%	18%	.24
WASH Defense	13	23.8	12.3	43.1%	4.04	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	38%	14%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	24.1	23.8	43.8%	3.64	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	44%	14%	.18
WASH Offense	13	23.4	28.8	47%	3.52	0.8	19	355	122	233	4.1	46%	54%	46%	48%	16%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	28:12	21.3	45%	47%	5.3	46	1.4	1.2	3.9	1.5	1	33.7
Washington	13	27:50	19.1	36%	46%	5.5	48.7	0.8	1.2	3.3	1.5	0	27.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	40% (126)	52% (10)	25.2	138.4	5.5	19 (73)	.23 (21)	3.49 (9)	85% (6)	8% (24)	0.89 (106)
WASH Defense	13	52% (79)	48% (116)	-	-	-	-	.19 (106)	3.3 (114)	68% (36)	7% (131)	0.89 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	46% (22)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.18 (96)	3.17 (92)	76% (81)	7% (127)	1 (77)
WASH Offense	13	46% (100)	46% (36)	29.5	121.6	4.1	13 (105)	.12 (78)	3.29 (28)	77% (43)	11% (101)	0.83 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	60% (9)	46% (26)	24.1	38	269.2	7.1	11.2	25 (31)	12 (85)	.25 (74)	1.5 (108)	29% (24)	36% (18)	.4 (36)	10% (134)	2 (74)
WASH Defense	13	48% (58)	38% (31)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.09 (13)	1.5 (40)	30% (95)	33% (98)	.35 (90)	7% (32)	2 (57)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	53% (113)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.2 (49)	1.3 (4)	28% (122)	27% (27)	.14 (6)	7% (42)	1.8 (8)
WASH Offense	13	54% (38)	48% (13)	21.2	29.6	232.9	7.9	11	18 (68)	7 (26)	.37 (22)	1.5 (117)	27% (6)	34% (44)	.35 (62)	5% (35)	1.8 (121)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 7.42 #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62 #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19 #74
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41% #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.42 Washington: 4.02

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 11.9 Washington: 3.1

Washington's Power Ratings
Washington's Power Rating: 4.02 #64
Washington's Offense Rating: 19.16 #73
Washington's Defense Rating: 11.11 #81
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Washington's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Washington's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1 #58
Washington's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #66
Washington's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #36

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
USC 29
Washington 23

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Washington 25
USC 24

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Washington 25
USC 22

Total Points: 47

Washington Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.8
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.3

Washington's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Washington	26	USC	21	USC -2	Washington	55.0	Under
2023	11/04	USC	42	Washington	52	Washington -3.0	Washington	76.0	Over
2019	09/28	Washington	28	USC	14	Washington -12.5	Washington	60.5	Under
2016	11/12	Washington	13	USC	26	Washington -10	USC	59.5	Under
2015	10/08	USC	12	Washington	17	USC -17	Washington	59.5	Under
2012	10/13	Washington	14	USC	24
2011	11/12	USC	40	Washington	17
2010	10/02	USC	31	Washington	32
2009	09/19	Washington	16	USC	13
2008	11/01	USC	56	Washington	0
2007	09/29	Washington	24	USC	27
2006	10/07	USC	26	Washington	20
2005	10/22	Washington	24	USC	51
2004	10/23	USC	38	Washington	0
2003	10/25	Washington	23	USC	43
2002	10/19	USC	41	Washington	21
2001	10/06	Washington	27	USC	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Washington	7	4	1 Overs
USC	10	1	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 8	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	8 - 9	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#37) USC at (#64) WASH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	WASH
Power RatePwr	#37	#64
SP+SP+	#23	#58
Perf GradeGrade	#44	#69
OffenseOff	#36	#71
DefenseDef	#74	#62
Spec TeamsST	#65	#121
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#16	#23

USC Notes(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms
(10/19) Gagged vs MD, Rgame awful, Moss meh.
(10/18) OL undersized/no depth. #129 in Pass blocking
(10/16) DE Lucas (Starter) out for season
(10/16) Best LB Gentry injured, will redshirt TY
USC Injury Report

Washington Notes(12/31) QB D Williams (Mobile, Fr) great in bowl.
(12/27) Hired DC Walters (Pur HC)
(11/18) QB Williams replaced Rogers (UCLA W) better QB
(11/18) Good W vs UCLA, Run Def great, Off enough
(11/13) Off abysmal vs PSU, Rgame yuck, Def torched
(11/2) Big W over USC, Outgained but forced 3 TO's
(10/6) OG'd Michigan by 150+. QB Rogers really good
(10/4) Off #'s both Run/Pass great, flags killing them
(9/27) Outgained Gers by 200+ yds. 2-12 3rd down killer
(9/11) Off: Rogers good, WRs Hunter/Boston good.
(8/4) OL & DL do not have the talent TY
(8/4) Fisch good HC, but year 0 with 0 ret. starters
Washington Injury Report

USC on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	WASH Def
Perf GradePerf	#36	#62
SuccessSuc	#11	#83
ExplosiveExp	#91	#17
PPAPPA	#41	#54
PowerPwr	#60	#81
SP+SP+	#15	#36
Pts POPPO	#85	#95
HavocHav	#101	#107

USC Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	WASH Def
Run GameRun	#6	#90
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#116
Run ExplRExp	#106	#31
PPAExp	#21	#106
Run BlockR Blk	#87	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#114
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#123
TackleTak	-	#2

USC Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	WASH Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#31
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#40
PPAExp	#74	#13
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#114	#82
F7 HavocF7	#24	#131
DB HavocDB	#134	#32

Washington on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	WASH Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#71	#74
SuccessSuc	#21	#94
ExplosiveExp	#119	#24
PPAPPA	#32	#78
PowerPwr	#73	#74
SP+SP+	#66	#48
Pts POPPO	#102	#49
HavocHav	#74	#105

Washington Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	WASH Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#37	#92
Run SuccessRSuc	#36	#78
Run ExplRExp	#123	#77
PPAExp	#78	#96
Run BlockR Blk	#104	-
OL YdsOLY	#28	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#17	#120
TackleTak	-	#19

Washington Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	WASH Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#86	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#13	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#117	#4
PPAExp	#22	#49
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#131	#85
F7 HavocF7	#101	#127
DB HavocDB	#35	#42

Program Comparison
WASH 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Husky Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 53° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 10
USC 2.0 (55.0)
Washington won vs USC this year (26-21)

Previous Matchups
Washington beat USC last year (26-21)
Washington beat USC in 2023 (52-42)

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Miller Moss	233	362	64%	2555	18	9	7.1
Jayden Maiava (Tr)	101	169	60%	1201	11	6	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	198	1133	9	5.7	65
Quinten Joyner	63	478	3	7.6	75
Bryan Jackson	36	188	1	5.2	23
A'Marion Peterson	16	65	1	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	52	764	3	14.7	70
Ja'Kobi Lane	43	525	12	12.2	33
Zachariah Branch	47	503	1	10.7	42
Kyron Ware-Hudson	38	462	3	12.2	39

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Akili Arnold (Tr)	59	1	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braylan Shelby	28	5	3	2	1
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Eric Gentry	33	7	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DeCarlos Nicholson (Tr)	27	0	0	0	5
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3

WASH's OC Brennan Carroll (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers (Tr)	220	311	71%	2458	14	7	7.9
Demond Williams Jr. (Tr)	82	105	78%	944	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonah Coleman (Tr)	193	1053	10	5.5	64
Demond Williams Jr. (Tr)	83	282	2	3.4	43
Adam Mohammed (Tr)	42	193	0	4.6	32
Cameron Davis	44	190	0	4.3	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Giles Jackson	85	893	7	10.5	49
Denzel Boston	63	834	9	13.2	51
Jeremiah Hunter (Tr)	36	490	1	13.6	42
Keleki Latu (Tr)	40	371	1	9.3	36

View Washington's Full Roster

WASH's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Carson Bruener	104	2	0	3	5
Alphonzo Tuputala	81	4	4	2	1
Kamren Fabiculanan	54	1	0	1	2
Sebastian Valdez (Tr)	49	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alphonzo Tuputala	81	4	4	2	1
Russell Davis II (Tr)	4	3	3	0	0
Isaiah Ward (Tr)	28	6	3	2	2
Voi Tunuufi	36	4	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Thaddeus Dixon	43	2	0	10
Ephesians Prysock (Tr)	45	0	0	6
Jordan Shaw	37	4	1	6