Louisville at Virginia - 2024 Matchup Preview

Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Louisville -7 (54.0) (-278) Open: -8.0
Louisville 24 - Virginia: 20 (ACC)

Cardinals (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UVA 2nd straight Home Game
LOU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -14 (SP+ LOU -18.5)
Projected Score: LOU: 34 - UVA: 20 (53)
LOU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
LOU Travel: 394 miles

Cavaliers (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (6 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LOU Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Louisville vs Austin Peay	-38.5	54.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Louisville vs Jacksonville State	-27.5	56.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-9.5	56.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Louisville at Notre Dame	+6.5	45.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Louisville vs SMU	-6.5	55.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Louisville at Virginia	-7.0	54.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Louisville vs Miami	+4.5	61.5	L 45 - 52	O	N
Fri 10/25	Louisville at Boston College	-7.0	54.0	W 31 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	Louisville at Clemson	+11.0	62.5	W 33 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Louisville at Stanford	-21.0	57.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/23	Louisville vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	57.0	W 37 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Louisville at Kentucky	-3.5	48.5	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/31	Louisville vs Washington	+1.0	50.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

Virginia's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Virginia vs Richmond	-21
Sat 9/7	Virginia at Wake Forest	-1.5	55.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Virginia vs Maryland	-2.5	55.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Virginia at Coastal Carolina	-3.5	52.0	W 43 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Virginia vs Boston College	-2.0	52.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Virginia vs Louisville	+7.0	54.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Virginia at Clemson	+20.0	57.5	L 31 - 48	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Virginia vs North Carolina	-3.5	58.5	L 14 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Virginia at Pittsburgh	+7.5	56.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Virginia at Notre Dame	+20.5	51.0	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/23	Virginia vs SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/30	Virginia at Virginia Tech	+4.5	44.5	L 17 - 37	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#46 (.23)	48% (11)	29.9	51% (12)	3.07 (80)	179	47% (26)	236	4.04 (53)	#12 (.08)	36% (13)	21.2	35% (14)	37% (16)	3.9 (77)	48.6	1.4	1.4
UVA	#88 (.15)	41% (84)	30.8	42% (82)	3 (89)	118	41% (76)	251	3.68 (85)	#117 (.26)	45% (113)	19.6	48% (118)	43% (90)	4.15 (103)	55.3	1.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	14	29.9	23	48.4%	4.04	1.4	21	415	179	236	4.7	51%	48%	51%	47%	16%	.23
UVA Defense	12	19.6	17.7	45.2%	4.15	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	48%	43%	15%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	14	21.2	25.5	35.8%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	37%	19%	.08
UVA Offense	12	30.8	36.4	41%	3.68	1.7	21	369	118	251	3.1	49%	50%	42%	41%	19%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	14	32:13	20.8	37%	54%	5.6	48.6	1.4	1.4	5.4	2.3	1	30.8
Virginia	12	31:24	21	36%	60%	6.5	55.3	1.7	1.2	4.8	0.9	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	14	51% (57)	51% (12)	38.1	178.5	4.7	31 (17)	.2 (43)	3.07 (80)	73% (78)	10% (64)	0.93 (101)
UVA Defense	12	51% (87)	48% (118)	-	-	-	-	.26 (124)	3.36 (116)	76% (92)	9% (108)	1.03 (84)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	14	47% (26)	35% (14)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (14)	2.4 (3)	68% (37)	12% (26)	1 (68)
UVA Offense	12	49% (76)	42% (82)	37.8	117.9	3.1	12 (116)	.11 (91)	3 (89)	70% (98)	13% (123)	0.89 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	14	48% (74)	47% (26)	19	29.1	236.4	8.1	12.4	22 (61)	12 (85)	.3 (64)	1.6 (82)	26% (6)	37% (18)	.45 (33)	6% (74)	2.1 (42)
UVA Defense	12	48% (48)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.32 (97)	1.6 (54)	28% (127)	30% (62)	.33 (76)	6% (57)	2.1 (85)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	14	53% (111)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.19 (23)	1.8 (123)	37% (7)	23% (3)	.24 (35)	7% (32)	2.4 (131)
UVA Offense	12	50% (62)	41% (76)	20.7	33	250.8	7.6	12.1	19 (78)	14 (107)	.29 (67)	1.6 (66)	32% (83)	29% (79)	.21 (105)	6% (79)	1.8 (126)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 12.44 #20
Louisville's Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Louisville's Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
2024 Talent Rating: 391.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Louisville's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Louisville's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.44 Virginia: -1.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 13.6 Virginia: -5.1

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -1.05 #69
Virginia's Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
2024 Talent Rating: 366.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 34
Virginia 20

Projected Total Points: 53

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Louisville	27	Virginia	30	Louisville -6.5	Virginia	59.5	Under
2024	10/12	Virginia	20	Louisville	24	Louisville -7	Virginia	54.0	Under
2023	11/09	Louisville	31	Virginia	24	Louisville -20.5	Virginia	49.5	Over
2022	10/08	Virginia	17	Louisville	34	Virginia -1.5	Louisville	47.5	Over
2021	10/09	Louisville	33	Virginia	34	Louisville -2.5	Virginia	69.5	Under
2020	11/14	Virginia	31	Louisville	17	Virginia -5.5	Virginia	64.5	Under
2019	10/26	Louisville	28	Virginia	21	Virginia -4.5	Louisville	51.0	Under
2018	09/22	Virginia	27	Louisville	3	Virginia -4.5	Virginia	51.5	Under
2017	11/11	Louisville	38	Virginia	21	Louisville -14	Louisville	66.5	Under
2016	10/29	Virginia	25	Louisville	32	Louisville -27	Virginia	69.5	Under
2015	11/14	Louisville	38	Virginia	31	Louisville -8.5	Virginia	48.0	Over
2014	09/13	Virginia	23	Louisville	21	Louisville -10	Virginia	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	5	9	3 Overs
Louisville	7	3	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	7 - 5	3 - 5	4 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 7	5 - 7	0 - 4	5 - 3

(#20) LOU at (#69) UVA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LOU	UVA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#20	#69
SP+SP+	#21	#91
Perf GradeGrade	#11	#115
OffenseOff	#12	#109
DefenseDef	#16	#109
Spec TeamsST	#35	#44
TalentTal	#37	#54
Blue ChipsBC%	#41	#82

Louisville Notes(12/14) Signed QB Miller Moss (USC)
(11/19) DB Holloway D.V arrest after blowing Stan game
(11/18) Dumbest L @ Stan. Off was decent, Pass D torched
(11/2) 200 yds Rushing, Def owned Clemson. Easy Nov
(10/23) Expl WR Lacy (#3) ops out before BC game
(10/19) Def torched by Miami. Great fight, Shough tough
(10/13) Def mauled by UVA, season saving comeback W
(10/6) Season slipping after SMU L. Rgame/Pass D bad
(9/28) Outgained ND by 100 yds. 3 TOs. Rgame better
(9/28) Shough a tough QB, gutty vs ND. Should've won
(9/23) WR J Thompson out for season (knee)
(9/23) Star CB Riley ? for ND game (ankle)
Louisville Injury Report

Virginia Notes(12/17) Signed QB C Morris (N Tex/OU/TCU)
(11/25) Pass D torched by SMU, Rgame awful, QB bad
(11/18) 5 TO's cost any shot @ ND, Pass Off awful
(11/13) QB Col OK, Rgame OK, Def great in Pitt upset
(10/31) QB? Colandrea or Muskett? Col goes downfield
(10/19) Rgame awful vs Clem, QBs good. Hung in a bit
(10/13) Off great, Def OK but gagged vs L'ville
(10/6) Run Def great, Off enough in big W (BC)
(9/23) 384 rush yds, 6.6 ypc in great W @ Coastal
(9/8) QB Colandrea great, entire Off. Good W @ Wake
(9/1) Good W over Richmond, QB Col. good, Rgame good
(8/19) QB Colandrea good find LY, portal WRs decent
Virginia Injury Report

Louisville on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	UVA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#109
SuccessSuc	#11	#113
ExplosiveExp	#105	#55
PPAPPA	#46	#117
PowerPwr	#26	#96
SP+SP+	#7	#86
Pts POPPO	#53	#103
HavocHav	#68	#96

Louisville Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#22	#104
Run SuccessRSuc	#12	#118
Run ExplRExp	#101	#84
PPAExp	#43	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#110	#96
TackleTak	-	#112

Louisville Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#82	#54
PPAExp	#64	#97
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#79	#72
F7 HavocF7	#64	#108
DB HavocDB	#74	#57

Virginia on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	LOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#16
SuccessSuc	#84	#13
ExplosiveExp	#96	#122
PPAPPA	#88	#12
PowerPwr	#84	#40
SP+SP+	#95	#40
Pts POPPO	#85	#77
HavocHav	#109	#23

Virginia Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	#82	#14
Run ExplRExp	#113	#68
PPAExp	#91	#14
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#89	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#7
TackleTak	-	#65

Virginia Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#66	#123
PPAExp	#67	#23
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#120	#17
F7 HavocF7	#123	#26
DB HavocDB	#79	#32

Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Louisville 7.0 (54.0)
Louisville won at Virginia this year (24-20)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Louisville last year (30-27)
Louisville beat Virginia in 2024 (24-20)
Louisville beat Virginia in 2023 (31-24)

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Shough (Tr)	244	389	63%	3195	23	6	8.2
Harrison Bailey	24	33	73%	227	3	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaac Brown	165	1173	11	7.1	77
Duke Watson	67	597	7	8.9	68
Keyjuan Brown	47	243	3	5.2	24
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)	50	178	3	3.6	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Corey Brooks (Tr)	61	1013	9	16.6	86
Chris Bell	43	737	4	17.1	68
Mark Redman (Tr)	23	251	3	10.9	32
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	17	230	0	13.5	58

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
TJ Quinn	82	4	2	0
Stanquan Clark	76	8	1	2
M.J. Griffin	63	2	1	2
Tamarion McDonald (Tr)	58	4	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ashton Gillotte	43	10	5	10
Tramel Logan Jr.	20	6	4	2
Jared Dawson	19	7	4	0
Thor Griffith (Tr)	19	5	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quincy Riley	33	3	0	0	9
Corey Thornton (Tr)	38	0	0	1	6
Tayon Holloway (Tr)	16	2	1	0	5

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	198	320	62%	2125	13	11	6.6
Tony Muskett	45	76	59%	545	3	3	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Pace	114	499	3	4.4	43
Xavier Brown	80	488	1	6.1	75
Anthony Colandrea	128	277	2	2.2	35
Noah Vaughn	36	120	0	3.3	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Fields	55	808	5	14.7	45
Tyler Neville (Tr)	37	394	2	10.6	39
Trell Harris (Tr)	15	221	2	14.7	45
Kobe Pace	21	189	0	9.0	52

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Kamren Robinson	64	6	5	2	1
Trey McDonald	57	3	1	1	1
Jermarian Jackson	55	1	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamren Robinson	64	6	5	2	1
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
James Jackson	45	5	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kempton Shine (Tr)	37	2	0	0	7
Jermarian Jackson	55	1	1	0	6
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4