SMU at Louisville - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Louisville -6.5 (55.0) (-265) Open: -11.0
SMU 34 - Louisville: 27 (ACC)

Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: SMU -1 (SP+ SMU -4)
Projected Score: SMU: 28 - LOU: 27 (54)
LOU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
SMU Travel: 722 miles, 1 hrs behind

Cardinals (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SMU Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	SMU at Nevada	-28.0	55.5	W 29 - 24	U	N
Sat 8/31	SMU vs Houston Christian	-32.5
Fri 9/6	SMU vs BYU	-12.5	55.5	L 15 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	SMU vs TCU	+1.0	58.5	W 66 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/28	SMU vs Florida State	-6.0	46.0	W 42 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/5	SMU at Louisville	+6.5	55.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	SMU at Stanford	-16.5	52.5	W 40 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	SMU at Duke	-11.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	SMU vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	55.5	W 48 - 25	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	SMU vs Boston College	-19.0	54.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/23	SMU at Virginia	-11.5	54.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/30	SMU vs California	-11.5	54.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/7	SMU vs Clemson	-2.5	56.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/21	SMU at Penn State	+9.0	52.5	L 10 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Louisville's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Louisville vs Austin Peay	-38.5	54.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Louisville vs Jacksonville State	-27.5	56.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-9.5	56.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Louisville at Notre Dame	+6.5	45.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Louisville vs SMU	-6.5	55.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Louisville at Virginia	-7.0	54.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Louisville vs Miami	+4.5	61.5	L 45 - 52	O	N
Fri 10/25	Louisville at Boston College	-7.0	54.0	W 31 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	Louisville at Clemson	+11.0	62.5	W 33 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Louisville at Stanford	-21.0	57.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/23	Louisville vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	57.0	W 37 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Louisville at Kentucky	-3.5	48.5	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/31	Louisville vs Washington	+1.0	50.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#24 (.28)	44% (46)	32.2	47% (30)	3.21 (49)	177	42% (67)	278	4.51 (21)	#7 (.04)	36% (10)	20.5	37% (17)	35% (8)	3.59 (51)	40.8	0.9	1.2
LOU	#46 (.23)	48% (11)	29.9	51% (12)	3.07 (80)	179	47% (26)	236	4.04 (53)	#12 (.08)	36% (13)	21.2	35% (14)	37% (16)	3.9 (77)	48.6	1.4	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	14	32.2	29.8	43.9%	4.51	0.9	24	455	177	278	4.5	50%	49%	47%	42%	12%	.28
LOU Defense	14	21.2	18.9	35.8%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	37%	19%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	14	20.5	22.2	35.7%	3.59	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	37%	35%	19%	.04
LOU Offense	14	29.9	33.8	48.4%	4.04	1.4	21	415	179	236	4.7	51%	48%	51%	47%	16%	.23

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	14	30:21	23.5	43%	59%	4.6	40.8	0.9	1.2	6.6	3.1	5	30.4
Louisville	14	32:13	20.8	37%	54%	5.6	48.6	1.4	1.4	5.4	2.3	1	30.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	14	50% (66)	47% (30)	39.7	176.6	4.5	29 (22)	.18 (52)	3.21 (49)	85% (2)	6% (4)	0.88 (122)
LOU Defense	14	47% (26)	35% (14)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (14)	2.4 (3)	68% (37)	12% (26)	1 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	14	47% (38)	37% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (19)	2.9 (35)	67% (30)	12% (23)	0.97 (50)
LOU Offense	14	51% (57)	51% (12)	38.1	178.5	4.7	31 (17)	.2 (43)	3.07 (80)	73% (78)	10% (64)	0.93 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	14	49% (71)	42% (67)	19.6	33.2	278.4	8.4	14.2	33 (11)	8 (30)	.45 (16)	2 (3)	31% (57)	33% (44)	.38 (53)	6% (58)	2.1 (46)
LOU Defense	14	53% (111)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.19 (23)	1.8 (123)	37% (7)	23% (3)	.24 (35)	7% (32)	2.4 (131)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	14	52% (97)	35% (8)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.09 (8)	1.7 (87)	36% (18)	22% (1)	.07 (2)	8% (19)	2.1 (70)
LOU Offense	14	48% (74)	47% (26)	19	29.1	236.4	8.1	12.4	22 (61)	12 (85)	.3 (64)	1.6 (82)	26% (6)	37% (18)	.45 (33)	6% (74)	2.1 (42)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.59 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 378.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 15.59 Louisville: 15.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 17.5 Louisville: 13.6

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 15.52 #20
Louisville's Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Louisville's Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
2024 Talent Rating: 391.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Louisville's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Louisville's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 28
Louisville 27

Projected Total Points: 54

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	SMU	38	Louisville	6	SMU -4	SMU	49.5	Under
2024	10/05	Louisville	27	SMU	34	Louisville -6.5	SMU	55.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	0	0	1 Overs
SMU	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#13) SMU at (#20) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SMU	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#13	#20
SP+SP+	#12	#21
Perf GradeGrade	#14	#11
OffenseOff	#30	#12
DefenseDef	#13	#16
Spec TeamsST	#84	#35
TalentTal	#46	#37
Blue ChipsBC%	#47	#41

SMU Injury Report

Louisville Notes(12/14) Signed QB Miller Moss (USC)
(11/19) DB Holloway D.V arrest after blowing Stan game
(11/18) Dumbest L @ Stan. Off was decent, Pass D torched
(11/2) 200 yds Rushing, Def owned Clemson. Easy Nov
(10/23) Expl WR Lacy (#3) ops out before BC game
(10/19) Def torched by Miami. Great fight, Shough tough
(10/13) Def mauled by UVA, season saving comeback W
(10/6) Season slipping after SMU L. Rgame/Pass D bad
(9/28) Outgained ND by 100 yds. 3 TOs. Rgame better
(9/28) Shough a tough QB, gutty vs ND. Should've won
(9/23) WR J Thompson out for season (knee)
(9/23) Star CB Riley ? for ND game (ankle)
Louisville Injury Report

SMU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#16
SuccessSuc	#46	#13
ExplosiveExp	#15	#122
PPAPPA	#24	#12
PowerPwr	#28	#40
SP+SP+	#5	#40
Pts POPPO	#21	#77
HavocHav	#8	#23

SMU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#74	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	#30	#14
Run ExplRExp	#122	#68
PPAExp	#52	#14
Run BlockR Blk	#47	-
OL YdsOLY	#49	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#38	#7
TackleTak	-	#65

SMU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	#67	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#3	#123
PPAExp	#16	#23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#33	#17
F7 HavocF7	#4	#26
DB HavocDB	#58	#32

Louisville on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	SMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#13
SuccessSuc	#11	#10
ExplosiveExp	#105	#86
PPAPPA	#46	#7
PowerPwr	#26	#5
SP+SP+	#7	#30
Pts POPPO	#53	#51
HavocHav	#68	#14

Louisville Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#22	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#12	#17
Run ExplRExp	#101	#50
PPAExp	#43	#19
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#35
Stuff RateStuff	#110	#27
TackleTak	-	#43

Louisville Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#8
Pass ExplPExl	#82	#87
PPAExp	#64	#8
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#79	#15
F7 HavocF7	#64	#23
DB HavocDB	#74	#19

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Louisville -6.5 (55.0)
SMU won at Louisville this year (34-27)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Louisville last year (38-6)
SMU beat Louisville in 2024 (34-27)

SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	248	381	65%	3189	23	11	8.4
Preston Stone	30	51	59%	421	5	1	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)	234	1330	14	5.7	71
Kevin Jennings	101	354	5	3.5	59
LJ Johnson Jr.	74	303	5	4.1	35
Roderick Daniels	44	160	3	3.6	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roderick Daniels	42	601	4	14.3	81
Keyshawn Smith	33	527	5	16.0	45
Jordan Hudson	39	422	5	10.8	42
Kelvontay Dixon	21	386	1	18.4	87

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson	102	6	3	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	95	3	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker	88	8	1	4	3
Ahmaad Moses	64	6	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)	30	13	8	9	1
Isaiah Smith	31	9	7	6	1
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)	40	8	7	5	0
Elijah Roberts	32	10	7	10	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonathan McGill	52	2	1	6
Brandon Crossley	30	1	1	6
Deuce Harmon (Tr)	28	2	0	6

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Shough (Tr)	244	389	63%	3195	23	6	8.2
Harrison Bailey	24	33	73%	227	3	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaac Brown	165	1173	11	7.1	77
Duke Watson	67	597	7	8.9	68
Keyjuan Brown	47	243	3	5.2	24
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)	50	178	3	3.6	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Corey Brooks (Tr)	61	1013	9	16.6	86
Chris Bell	43	737	4	17.1	68
Mark Redman (Tr)	23	251	3	10.9	32
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	17	230	0	13.5	58

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
TJ Quinn	82	4	2	0
Stanquan Clark	76	8	1	2
M.J. Griffin	63	2	1	2
Tamarion McDonald (Tr)	58	4	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ashton Gillotte	43	10	5	10
Tramel Logan Jr.	20	6	4	2
Jared Dawson	19	7	4	0
Thor Griffith (Tr)	19	5	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quincy Riley	33	3	0	0	9
Corey Thornton (Tr)	38	0	0	1	6
Tayon Holloway (Tr)	16	2	1	0	5