SMU at Louisville - 2024 Matchup Preview
SMU logo SMU Mustangs at Louisville CardinalsLouisville logo
Saturday, October 5th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Louisville -6.5 (55.0) (-265)  Open: -11.0
SMU 34 - Louisville: 27  (ACC)

 
Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: SMU -1   (SP+ SMU -4)
Projected Score: SMU: 29 - LOU: 28 (59)
LOU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
SMU Travel: 722 miles, 1 hrs behind
Cardinals (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 24 (42 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
SMU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 SMU at Nevada-28.055.5W 29 - 24UN
Sat 8/31 SMU vs Houston Christian-32.5
Fri 9/6 SMU vs BYU-12.555.5L 15 - 18UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 SMU vs TCU+1.058.5W 66 - 42OY
Sat 9/28 SMU vs Florida State-6.046.0W 42 - 16OY
Sat 10/5 SMU at Louisville+6.555.0W 34 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 SMU at Stanford-16.552.5W 40 - 10UY
Sat 10/26 SMU at Duke-11.549.5W 28 - 27ON
Sat 11/2 SMU vs Pittsburgh-7.055.5W 48 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 SMU vs Boston College-19.054.5W 38 - 28ON
Sat 11/23 SMU at Virginia-11.554.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 11/30 SMU vs California-11.554.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 12/7 SMU vs Clemson-2.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 12/21 SMU at Penn State+9.052.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Louisville's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Louisville vs Austin Peay-38.554.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/7 Louisville vs Jacksonville State-27.556.5W 49 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Louisville vs Georgia Tech-9.556.0W 31 - 19UY
Sat 9/28 Louisville at Notre Dame+6.545.0L 24 - 31ON
Sat 10/5 Louisville vs SMU-6.555.0L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 Louisville at Virginia-7.054.0W 24 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Louisville vs Miami+4.561.5L 45 - 52ON
Fri 10/25 Louisville at Boston College-7.054.0W 31 - 27ON
Sat 11/2 Louisville at Clemson+11.062.5W 33 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Louisville at Stanford-21.057.5L 35 - 38ON
Sat 11/23 Louisville vs Pittsburgh-7.057.0W 37 - 9UY
Sat 11/30 Louisville at Kentucky-3.548.5W 41 - 14OY
Tue 12/31 Louisville vs Washington+1.050.5W 35 - 34OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#24 (.28)44% (46)36.547% (30)3.21 (49)17742% (67)2784.51 (21)#7 (.04)36% (10)22.137% (17)35% (8)3.59 (51)40.80.91.2
LOU#46 (.23)48% (11)36.551% (12)3.07 (80)17947% (26)2364.04 (53)#12 (.08)36% (13)24.135% (14)37% (16)3.9 (77)48.61.41.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1436.52943.9%4.510.9244551772784.550%49%47%42%12%.28
LOU Defense1424.121.335.8%3.91.4 - - - - - 47%53%35%37%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1422.122.235.7%3.591.2 - - - - - 47%52%37%35%19%.04
LOU Offense1436.541.848.4%4.041.4214151792364.751%48%51%47%16%.23

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1430:2123.543%59%4.640.80.91.26.63.1530.4
Louisville1432:1320.837%54%5.648.61.41.45.42.3130.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1450% (66)47% (30)39.7176.64.529 (22).18 (52)3.21 (49)85% (2)6% (4)0.88 (122)
LOU Defense1447% (26)35% (14) - - - - -.01 (14)2.4 (3)68% (37)12% (26)1 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1447% (38)37% (17) - - - - .04 (19)2.9 (35)67% (30)12% (23)0.97 (50)
LOU Offense1451% (57)51% (12)38.1178.54.731 (17).2 (43)3.07 (80)73% (78)10% (64)0.93 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1449% (71)42% (67)19.633.2278.48.414.233 (11)8 (30).45 (16)2 (3)31% (57)33% (44).38 (53)6% (58)2.1 (46)
LOU Defense1453% (111)37% (16) - - - - - - 13 (26).19 (23)1.8 (123)37% (7)23% (3).24 (35)7% (32)2.4 (131)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1452% (97)35% (8) - - - - - - 12 (37).09 (8)1.7 (87)36% (18)22% (1).07 (2)8% (19)2.1 (70)
LOU Offense1448% (74)47% (26)1929.1236.48.112.422 (61)12 (85).3 (64)1.6 (82)26% (6)37% (18).45 (33)6% (74)2.1 (42)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.59 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 15.59   Louisville: 15.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 17.5   Louisville: 13.6




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 15.52 #20
Louisville's Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Louisville's Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
2024 Talent Rating: 770.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Louisville's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Louisville's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 29
Louisville 28


Projected Total Points: 59
Louisville Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Louisville's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Louisville27SMU34SMULouisville -6.5SMU55.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville001 Overs
SMU110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#13) SMU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 15.59 #13
Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30
Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.41 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Great in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 35%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

SMU     Ratings Matchup     Louisville
Power #13
#20
Off #28
#26
Def #5
#40
Talent #47
#35
SP+ #12
#21
SP+ Off #5
#7
SP+ Def #30
#40

Rematch from Week 6
Louisville -6.5 (55.0)
SMU won at Louisville this year (34-27)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Louisville last year (34-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 81°

Team Information
Injuries: SMU | LOU
Depth Chart: SMU | LOU
Rosters: SMU | LOU
(#20) Louisville Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 15.52 #20
Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40
Talent Rating: 770.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.27 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.98 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Louisville Notes
(11/19) DB Holloway D.V arrest after blowing Stan game
(11/18) Dumbest L @ Stan. Off was decent, Pass D torched
(11/2) 200 yds Rushing, Def owned Clemson. Easy Nov
(10/23) Expl WR Lacy (#3) ops out before BC game
(10/19) Def torched by Miami. Great fight, Shough tough
(10/13) Def mauled by UVA, season saving comeback W
(10/6) Season slipping after SMU L. Rgame/Pass D bad
(9/28) Outgained ND by 100 yds. 3 TOs. Rgame better
(9/28) Shough a tough QB, gutty vs ND. Should've won
(9/23) WR J Thompson out for season (knee)


  
SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Preston Stone305159%421518.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)2341330145.771
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
LJ Johnson Jr.7430354.135
Derrick McFall2610624.117
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
Matthew Hibner (Tr)24368415.380
R.J. Maryland24359415.049
Brashard Smith (Tr)3932748.433

View SMU's Full Roster
SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmaad Moses646003
Alex Kilgore553103
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)408750
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)3013891
Isaiah Smith319761
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)408750
Cam Robertson296330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deuce Harmon (Tr)282006
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmaad Moses646003

Louisville's OC Brian Brohm
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tyler Shough (Tr)24438963%31952368.2
Harrison Bailey243373%227306.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown1651173117.177
Duke Watson6759778.968
Keyjuan Brown4724335.224
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)5017833.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Corey Brooks (Tr)611013916.686
Chris Bell43737417.168
Mark Redman (Tr)23251310.932
Caullin Lacy (Tr)18196110.934

View Louisville's Full Roster
Louisville's DC Ron English
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn824200
Stanquan Clark768102
Tamarion McDonald (Tr)584201
D'Angelo Hutchinson522003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tramel Logan Jr.206420
Jared Dawson197400
Thor Griffith (Tr)195300
Jordan Guerad (Tr)224321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Thornton (Tr)380016
Tayon Holloway (Tr)162105
D'Angelo Hutchinson522003