Louisville at Notre Dame - 2024 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#24)Notre Dame logo
Saturday, September 28th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -6.5 (45.0) (-245)  Open: -9.5
Notre Dame 31 - Louisville: 24

 
Cardinals (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 24 (31 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ND 2nd straight Home Game
ND is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -14   (SP+ ND -10)

Projected Score: LOU: 18 - ND: 32 (50)
ND Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
LOU Travel: 243 miles
Fighting Irish (14 - 2) (13 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (34 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Louisville's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Louisville vs Austin Peay-38.554.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/7 Louisville vs Jacksonville State-27.556.5W 49 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Louisville vs Georgia Tech-9.556.0W 31 - 19UY
Sat 9/28 Louisville at Notre Dame+6.545.0L 24 - 31ON
Sat 10/5 Louisville vs SMU-6.555.0L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 Louisville at Virginia-7.054.0W 24 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Louisville vs Miami+4.561.5L 45 - 52ON
Fri 10/25 Louisville at Boston College-7.054.0W 31 - 27ON
Sat 11/2 Louisville at Clemson+11.062.5W 33 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Louisville at Stanford-21.057.5L 35 - 38ON
Sat 11/23 Louisville vs Pittsburgh-7.057.0W 37 - 9UY
Sat 11/30 Louisville at Kentucky-3.548.5W 41 - 14OY
Tue 12/31 Louisville vs Washington+1.050.5W 35 - 34OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Notre Dame at Texas A&M+3.047.0W 23 - 13UY
Sat 9/7 Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois-28.546.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/14 Notre Dame at Purdue-11.545.5W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/21 Notre Dame vs Miami (OH)-27.544.0W 28 - 3UN
Sat 9/28 Notre Dame vs Louisville-6.545.0W 31 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Notre Dame vs Stanford-22.545.5W 49 - 7OY
Sat 10/19 Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech-14.049.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/26 Notre Dame vs Navy-14.050.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Notre Dame vs Florida State-25.544.5W 52 - 3OY
Sat 11/16 Notre Dame vs Virginia-20.551.0W 35 - 14UY
Sat 11/23 Notre Dame vs Army-14.544.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 11/30 Notre Dame at USC-6.552.5W 49 - 35OY
Fri 12/20 Notre Dame vs Indiana-7.050.0W 27 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Notre Dame vs Georgia-1.546.5W 23 - 10UY
Thu 1/9 Notre Dame vs Penn State+1.545.5W 27 - 24OY
Mon 1/20 Notre Dame vs Ohio State+8.545.5L 23 - 34ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)36.548% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)24.140% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)36.147% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)15.543% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1336.531.346.4%4.270.8204241732515.845%54%48%45%13%.31
ND Defense1615.51236.4%2.751.8 - - - - - 51%48%43%29%19%-.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1324.125.240.2%3.981.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%40%16%.18
ND Offense1636.133.747%4.80.8173411811606.353%47%47%47%11%.32

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1327:3920.140%40%5.946.10.81.25.82.2130.3
Notre Dame1624:3416.839%76%4.842.40.81.842.1533.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1345% (103)48% (20)29.9172.75.827 (30).2 (35)3.09 (56)65% (116)8% (27)1.04 (43)
ND Defense1651% (78)43% (73) - - - - .1 (58)2.9 (49)67% (29)10% (57)0.85 (12)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1349% (50)40% (44) - - - - .08 (43)2.9 (51)65% (25)11% (43)0.99 (71)
ND Offense1653% (46)47% (26)28.6181.36.342 (3).36 (2)3.31 (24)73% (71)8% (26)1.3 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1354% (32)45% (30)19.630.9251.58.112.823 (41)6 (10).41 (9)1.7 (34)30% (40)38% (8).5 (9)5% (40)2.1 (42)
ND Defense1648% (59)29% (1) - - - - - - 18 (4)-.15 (1)1.6 (67)34% (29)27% (24).1 (2)8% (6)1.6 (2)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1351% (88)40% (65) - - - - - - 9 (76).27 (87)1.7 (111)31% (78)33% (99).26 (48)5% (94)1.8 (14)
ND Offense1647% (89)47% (21)14.922.4159.97.210.820 (58)6 (10).29 (50)1.3 (133)28% (19)32% (58).45 (22)3% (6)2.1 (50)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 12.44 #20
Louisville's Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Louisville's Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Louisville's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Louisville's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.44   Notre Dame: 26.78

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 13.6   Notre Dame: 23.9




Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 26.78 #5
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -1.27 #2
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Notre Dame's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9 #8
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1 #7

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Louisville's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 32
Louisville 18


Total Points: 50

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.7
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 12

Notre Dame's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 13 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Notre Dame31Louisville24Notre DameNotre Dame -6.5Notre Dame45.0Over
202310/07Louisville33Notre Dame20LouisvilleNotre Dame -6.5Louisville53.0Push
202010/17Notre Dame12Louisville7Notre DameNotre Dame -16.0Louisville62.5Under
201909/02Louisville17Notre Dame35Notre DameNotre Dame -19Louisville55.0Under
201411/22Notre Dame28Louisville31LouisvilleNotre Dame -9Louisville0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Notre Dame311 Overs
Louisville242 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 23 - 21 - 22 - 0
Road Teams2 - 32 - 30 - 22 - 1

(#20) Louisville Info
Power Rating: 12.44 #20
Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.27 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.98 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Louisville has won 3 straight
Record on Road: 5 - 2 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

Louisville Notes
(11/19) DB Holloway D.V arrest after blowing Stan game
(11/18) Dumbest L @ Stan. Off was decent, Pass D torched
(11/2) 200 yds Rushing, Def owned Clemson. Easy Nov
(10/23) Expl WR Lacy (#3) ops out before BC game
(10/19) Def torched by Miami. Great fight, Shough tough
(10/13) Def mauled by UVA, season saving comeback W
(10/6) Season slipping after SMU L. Rgame/Pass D bad
(9/28) Outgained ND by 100 yds. 3 TOs. Rgame better
(9/28) Shough a tough QB, gutty vs ND. Should've won
(9/23) WR J Thompson out for season (knee)

Louisville Highlights
Louisville offense is efficent (#77)
Louisville offense is explosive (#6)
Louisville Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#69)
Louisville has a great TO Margin (#82)

Louisville Deficiencies
Louisville gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#11)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNDLOU
OverallOver#8#9
OffenseOff#11#12
DefenseDef#8#12
Special TeamsST#5#31
PassingPass#30#9
RushingRush#4#16
Run BlockRBLK#12#42
Pass BlockPBLK#54#69
Route RunningWR Rt#53#10
TacklingTkl#8#57
Run DefenseR Def#28#12
Pass Rush DefPRush#15#16
Coverage DefCov#2#29

Rematch from Week 5
Notre Dame -6.5 (45.0)
Notre Dame won vs Louisville this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Louisville last year (31-24)
Louisville beat Notre Dame in 2023 (33-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LOU | ND
Depth Chart: LOU | ND
Rosters: LOU | ND
(#5) Notre Dame Info
Power Rating: 26.78 #5
Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Defense Rating: -1.27 #2
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9 #8
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #4
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1 #7
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.8 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Great Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Great Pass Def Success 29%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Notre Dame has won 2 straight
Notre Dame has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Notre Dame Highlights
Notre Dame has Really Good Running Game (#126)
Notre Dame offense is efficent (#75)
Notre Dame has a top Offensive Line (#115)
Notre Dame offense is good in red zone (#22)
Notre Dame Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Notre Dame has a really good defense (#104)
Notre Dame defense does not give up big plays (#63)
Notre Dame defense is really good in red zone (#113)
Notre Dame has a good pass defense (#110)
Notre Dame Secondary is very good (#113)
Notre Dame has a great TO Margin (#54)
Notre Dame defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Notre Dame Deficiencies


  
Louisville's OC Brian Brohm
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tyler Shough (Tr)24438963%31952368.2
Harrison Bailey243373%227306.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown1651173117.177
Duke Watson6759778.968
Keyjuan Brown4724335.224
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)5017833.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Corey Brooks (Tr)611013916.686
Chris Bell43737417.168
Mark Redman (Tr)23251310.932
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce17230013.558

View Louisville's Full Roster
Louisville's DC Ron English
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn824200
Stanquan Clark768102
M.J. Griffin632102
Tamarion McDonald (Tr)584201
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Gillotte43105100
Tramel Logan Jr.206420
Jared Dawson197400
Thor Griffith (Tr)195300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Riley333009
Corey Thornton (Tr)380016
Tayon Holloway (Tr)162105

Notre Dame's OC Mike Denbrock
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Riley Leonard (Tr)26940367%28612187.1
Steven Angeli243667%268307.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiyah Love1631124176.998
Riley Leonard (Tr)184906174.950
Jadarian Price12074676.270
Aneyas Williams3421926.458
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Greathouse42592414.154
Beaux Collins (Tr)41490312.053
Mitchell Evans4342139.833
Jordan Faison30356111.944

View Notre Dame's Full Roster
Notre Dame's DC Al Golden
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kiser905231
Xavier Watts834049
Drayk Bowen784122
Adon Shuler593025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rylie Mills379840
Howard Cross III275431
Donovan Hinish344441
Junior Tuihalamaka326331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leonard Moore4820111
Xavier Watts834049
Christian Gray353009