Kentucky at Texas - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Texas -18.5 (47.0) (-1200) Open: -21.0
Texas 31 - Kentucky: 14 (SEC)

Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Texas -23.5 (SP+ TEX -19)
Projected Score: UK: 13 - TEX: 36 (49)
TEX Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
UK Travel: 925 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Longhorns (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UK Players
TEX Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Kentucky vs Southern Miss	-25.5	50.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Kentucky vs South Carolina	-9.5	41.5	L 6 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/14	Kentucky vs Georgia	+24.0	45.0	L 12 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Kentucky vs Ohio	-19.0	42.0	W 41 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Kentucky at Ole Miss	+15.0	51.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Kentucky vs Vanderbilt	-12.5	44.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Kentucky at Florida	-2.5	42.5	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Kentucky vs Auburn	-2.0	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/2	Kentucky at Tennessee	+17.5	45.5	L 18 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Kentucky vs Murray State	-41.5	54.5	W 48 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Kentucky at Texas	+18.5	47.0	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Kentucky vs Louisville	+3.5	48.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas vs Colorado State	-35.5	59.0	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Texas at Michigan	-7.0	42.0	W 31 - 12	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Texas vs UTSA	-36.5	56.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Texas vs UL Monroe	-43.5	54.5	W 51 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Texas vs Mississippi State	-37.0	58.5	W 35 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Texas vs Oklahoma	-16.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas vs Georgia	-4.0	57.0	L 15 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/26	Texas at Vanderbilt	-17.0	50.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Texas vs Florida	-24.5	48.5	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas at Arkansas	-13.0	57.5	W 20 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/23	Texas vs Kentucky	-18.5	47.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/30	Texas at Texas A&M	-4.5	49.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/7	Texas vs Georgia	-2.5	50.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 12/21	Texas vs Clemson	-13.5	49.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Texas vs Arizona State	-13.5	52.5	W 39 - 31	O	N
Fri 1/10	Texas vs Ohio State	+6.5	51.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK	#49 (.22)	40% (93)	23	41% (88)	2.79 (118)	128	40% (83)	212	4.46 (23)	#50 (.16)	43% (87)	26.4	42% (56)	45% (116)	3.95 (84)	50.8	1.5	1.4
TEX	#33 (.28)	45% (43)	30.5	42% (81)	3.19 (54)	176	48% (16)	266	3.84 (75)	#15 (.1)	36% (14)	20.3	33% (5)	38% (26)	3.43 (38)	47.5	1.1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Offense	13	23	10.8	40%	4.46	1.5	17	339	128	212	4.9	43%	55%	41%	40%	18%	.22
TEX Defense	14	20.3	17	35.9%	3.43	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	33%	38%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Defense	13	26.4	31.8	43.3%	3.95	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	45%	14%	.16
TEX Offense	14	30.5	38.8	44.7%	3.84	1.1	21	442	176	266	4.9	49%	51%	42%	48%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Kentucky	13	27:34	16.9	38%	20%	6.1	50.8	1.5	1.4	5.5	2	6	29.3
Texas	14	29:31	21.4	39%	63%	5.9	47.5	1.1	1.6	5.4	2.1	5	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Offense	13	43% (108)	41% (88)	26.1	127.7	4.9	18 (77)	.15 (71)	2.79 (118)	68% (106)	11% (79)	1.12 (17)
TEX Defense	14	41% (4)	33% (5)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (4)	2.45 (5)	54% (2)	11% (37)	0.79 (5)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Defense	13	48% (46)	42% (56)	-	-	-	-	.1 (40)	2.87 (29)	70% (48)	10% (75)	0.87 (18)
TEX Offense	14	49% (80)	42% (81)	35.6	175.6	4.9	26 (30)	.21 (35)	3.19 (54)	64% (121)	8% (33)	1.13 (14)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Offense	13	55% (26)	40% (83)	16.2	28.8	211.6	7.4	13	25 (37)	11 (68)	.32 (54)	1.7 (25)	35% (114)	28% (88)	.31 (77)	8% (113)	2.2 (19)
TEX Defense	14	58% (131)	38% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.24 (52)	1.7 (92)	36% (20)	28% (31)	.27 (42)	8% (15)	2.1 (87)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Defense	13	51% (92)	45% (116)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.23 (45)	1.4 (11)	31% (76)	30% (70)	.39 (104)	5% (114)	2.1 (75)
TEX Offense	14	51% (50)	48% (16)	20.9	30.9	266.4	8.6	12.7	24 (41)	9 (40)	.35 (38)	1.5 (102)	30% (32)	34% (32)	.45 (32)	5% (46)	2.1 (52)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 2.14 #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
2024 Talent Rating: 439.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 28% #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 2.14 Texas: 27.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 5.5 Texas: 24.1

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 27.23 #3
Texas's Offense Rating: 23.63 #31
Texas's Defense Rating: -0.40 #3
2024 Talent Rating: 617.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 66 #4
Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas 36
Kentucky 13

Projected Total Points: 49

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 10
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Kentucky	13	Texas	16	Texas -12.5	Kentucky	45.5	Under
2024	11/23	Texas	31	Kentucky	14	Texas -18.5	Kentucky	47.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas	2	0	0 Overs
Kentucky	0	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#54) UK at (#3) TEX

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UK	TEX
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#54	#3
SP+SP+	#45	#7
Perf GradeGrade	#83	#5
OffenseOff	#95	#18
DefenseDef	#75	#1
Spec TeamsST	#32	#33
TalentTal	#25	#6
Blue ChipsBC%	#21	#4

Kentucky Notes(11/23) 30 car, 21 yds vs Tex. QB Boley bad, Def fought
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start
(8/18) Starting RB Trayanum out for opener, poss more
Kentucky Injury Report

Texas Injury Report

Kentucky on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	TEX Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#95	#1
SuccessSuc	#93	#14
ExplosiveExp	#4	#94
PPAPPA	#49	#15
PowerPwr	#96	#3
SP+SP+	#88	#2
Pts POPPO	#23	#38
HavocHav	#102	#21

Kentucky Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#31	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#88	#5
Run ExplRExp	#17	#5
PPAExp	#71	#4
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#118	#5
Stuff RateStuff	#131	#11
TackleTak	-	#35

Kentucky Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#1
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#26
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#92
PPAExp	#54	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#116	#5
F7 HavocF7	#79	#37
DB HavocDB	#113	#15

Texas on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	UK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#75
SuccessSuc	#43	#87
ExplosiveExp	#40	#10
PPAPPA	#33	#50
PowerPwr	#31	#62
SP+SP+	#13	#26
Pts POPPO	#75	#84
HavocHav	#27	#111

Texas Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#25	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#81	#56
Run ExplRExp	#14	#18
PPAExp	#35	#40
Run BlockR Blk	#33	-
OL YdsOLY	#54	#29
Stuff RateStuff	#79	#26
TackleTak	-	#104

Texas Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#16	#116
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#11
PPAExp	#38	#45
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#1	#23
F7 HavocF7	#33	#75
DB HavocDB	#46	#114

Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Texas -18.5 (47.0)
Texas won vs Kentucky this year (31-14)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Kentucky last year (16-13)
Texas beat Kentucky in 2024 (31-14)

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	125	218	57%	1593	10	8	7.3
Cutter Boley	26	53	49%	338	2	4	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamarion Wilcox	92	590	2	6.4	50
Demie Sumo	129	586	5	4.5	22
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)	49	183	2	3.7	24
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	90	131	0	1.5	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	47	715	2	15.2	42
Barion Brown	29	361	3	12.4	63
Jay Maclin	13	313	4	24.1	83
Demie Sumo	20	154	0	7.7	18

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Jordan Lovett	63	1	0	0	1
Alex Afari Jr.	62	11	2	1	1
Zion Childress	55	6	1	6	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.J. Weaver	31	7	4	4	1
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Tre'Vonn Rybka	34	5	3	2	1
Octavious Oxendine	20	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Terhyon Nichols	10	0	0	5
Maxwell Hairston	19	1	1	4
J.Q. Hardaway	47	0	0	3

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quinn Ewers	293	445	66%	3472	31	12	7.8
Arch Manning	61	90	68%	938	9	2	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	226	1064	5	4.7	43
Jaydon Blue	134	730	8	5.4	77
Jerrick Gibson	78	377	4	4.8	25
Arch Manning	25	108	4	4.3	67

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Golden (Tr)	58	987	9	17.0	54
Gunnar Helm	60	786	7	13.1	49
Isaiah Bond (Tr)	34	540	5	15.9	56
DeAndre Moore Jr.	39	455	7	11.7	49

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Andrew Mukuba (Tr)	69	4	0	1	6
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	48	14	9	9	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Trey Moore (Tr)	36	11	7	6	1
Barryn Sorrell	43	11	6	12	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Malik Muhammad	36	1	0	0	8