Kentucky at Texas - 2024 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Texas LonghornsTexas logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Texas -18.5 (47.0) (-1200)  Open: -21.0
Texas 31 - Kentucky: 14  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Texas -23.5   (SP+ TEX -19)
Projected Score: UK: 12 - TEX: 36 (46)
TEX Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
UK Travel: 925 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Longhorns (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 33 - 15 (41 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Kentucky vs Southern Miss-25.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Kentucky vs South Carolina-9.541.5L 6 - 31UN
Sat 9/14 Kentucky vs Georgia+24.045.0L 12 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Kentucky vs Ohio-19.042.0W 41 - 6OY
Sat 9/28 Kentucky at Ole Miss+15.051.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Kentucky vs Vanderbilt-12.544.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Kentucky at Florida-2.542.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/26 Kentucky vs Auburn-2.043.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/2 Kentucky at Tennessee+17.545.5L 18 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Kentucky vs Murray State-41.554.5W 48 - 6UY
Sat 11/23 Kentucky at Texas+18.547.0L 14 - 31UY
Sat 11/30 Kentucky vs Louisville+3.548.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Texas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Texas vs Colorado State-35.559.0W 52 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Texas at Michigan-7.042.0W 31 - 12OY
Sat 9/14 Texas vs UTSA-36.556.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/21 Texas vs UL Monroe-43.554.5W 51 - 3UY
Sat 9/28 Texas vs Mississippi State-37.058.5W 35 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Texas vs Oklahoma-16.548.5W 34 - 3UY
Sat 10/19 Texas vs Georgia-4.057.0L 15 - 30UN
Sat 10/26 Texas at Vanderbilt-17.050.5W 27 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Texas vs Florida-24.548.5W 49 - 17OY
Sat 11/16 Texas at Arkansas-13.057.5W 20 - 10UN
Sat 11/23 Texas vs Kentucky-18.547.0W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/30 Texas at Texas A&M-4.549.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 12/7 Texas vs Georgia-2.550.5L 19 - 22UN
Sat 12/21 Texas vs Clemson-13.549.5W 38 - 24OY
Wed 1/1 Texas vs Arizona State-13.552.5W 39 - 31ON
Fri 1/10 Texas vs Ohio State+6.551.5L 14 - 28UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#49 (.22)40% (93)20.641% (88)2.79 (118)12840% (83)2124.46 (23)#50 (.16)43% (87)22.142% (56)45% (116)3.95 (84)50.81.51.4
TEX#33 (.28)45% (43)3342% (81)3.19 (54)17648% (16)2663.84 (75)#15 (.1)36% (14)15.333% (5)38% (26)3.43 (38)47.51.11.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense1320.61840%4.461.5173391282124.943%55%41%40%18%.22
TEX Defense1415.313.535.9%3.431.6 - - - - - 41%58%33%38%19%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1322.13143.3%3.951.4 - - - - - 48%51%42%45%14%.16
TEX Offense143340.944.7%3.841.1214421762664.949%51%42%48%14%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1327:3416.938%20%6.150.81.51.45.52629.3
Texas1429:3121.439%63%5.947.51.11.65.42.1531
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1343% (108)41% (88)26.1127.74.918 (77).15 (71)2.79 (118)68% (106)11% (79)1.12 (17)
TEX Defense1441% (4)33% (5) - - - - -.06 (4)2.45 (5)54% (2)11% (37)0.79 (5)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1348% (46)42% (56) - - - - .1 (40)2.87 (29)70% (48)10% (75)0.87 (18)
TEX Offense1449% (80)42% (81)35.6175.64.926 (30).21 (35)3.19 (54)64% (121)8% (33)1.13 (14)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1355% (26)40% (83)16.228.8211.67.41325 (37)11 (68).32 (54)1.7 (25)35% (114)28% (88).31 (77)8% (113)2.2 (19)
TEX Defense1458% (131)38% (26) - - - - - - 16 (9).24 (52)1.7 (92)36% (20)28% (31).27 (42)8% (15)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1351% (92)45% (116) - - - - - - 11 (53).23 (45)1.4 (11)31% (76)30% (70).39 (104)5% (114)2.1 (75)
TEX Offense1451% (50)48% (16)20.930.9266.48.612.724 (41)9 (40).35 (38)1.5 (102)30% (32)34% (32).45 (32)5% (46)2.1 (52)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 2.14 #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
2024 Talent Rating: 830.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 28% #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 2.14   Texas: 27.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 5.5   Texas: 24.1




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 27.23 #3
Texas's Offense Rating: 23.63 #31
Texas's Defense Rating: -0.40 #3
2024 Talent Rating: 1014.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 66 #4
Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 36
Kentucky 12


Projected Total Points: 46
Texas Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.9
Defense: 15.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.5

Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Texas31Kentucky14TexasTexas -18.5Kentucky47.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas100 Overs
Kentucky011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#54) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.14 #54
Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Talent Rating: 830.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 28% #21
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Kentucky Notes
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start
Kentucky     Ratings Matchup     Texas
Power #54
#3
Off #96
#31
Def #62
#3
Talent #26
#6
SP+ #45
#7
SP+ Off #88
#13
SP+ Def #26
#2

Rematch from Week 13
Texas -18.5 (47.0)
Texas won vs Kentucky this year (31-14)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Kentucky last year (31-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78°

Team Information
Injuries: UK | TEX
Depth Chart: UK | TEX
Rosters: UK | TEX
(#3) Texas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 27.23 #3
Offense Rating: 23.63 #31
Defense Rating: -0.40 #3
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2
Talent Rating: 1014.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 66 #4
Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.03 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Good Pass Success 44%
Good OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 2.57 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position



  
Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)12521857%15931087.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)4918323.724
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)9013101.522
Jason Patterson2011105.623
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key47715215.242
Barion Brown29361312.463
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Hardley Gilmore IV6153125.552

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
J.Q. Hardaway470003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Keeshawn Silver261120
Steven Soles Jr.52110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
J.Q. Hardaway470003
DJ Waller Jr. (Tr)130002

Texas's OC Kyle Flood
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning619068%9389210.4
Trey Owens2450%19004.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner226106454.743
Jerrick Gibson7837744.825
Arch Manning2510844.367
Ryan Wingo5100020.055
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matthew Golden (Tr)58987917.054
Isaiah Bond (Tr)34540515.956
DeAndre Moore Jr.39455711.749
Ryan Wingo27423215.775

View Texas's Full Roster
Texas's DC Pete Kwiatkowski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Hill Jr.11317841
Michael Taaffe7862110
Andrew Mukuba (Tr)694016
Liona Lefau635202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons4814992
Anthony Hill Jr.11317841
Trey Moore (Tr)3611761
Michael Taaffe7862110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Taaffe7862110
Malik Muhammad361008
Andrew Mukuba (Tr)694016