Texas at Michigan - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Texas -7 (42.0) (-245) Open: -3.5
Texas 31 - Michigan: 12

Longhorns (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MICH 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Texas -14.5 (SP+ TEX -13.5)
Projected Score: TEX: 30 - MICH: 15 (45)
TEX Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
TEX Travel: 1134 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wolverines (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TEX Players
MICH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas vs Colorado State	-35.5	59.0	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Texas at Michigan	-7.0	42.0	W 31 - 12	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Texas vs UTSA	-36.5	56.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Texas vs UL Monroe	-43.5	54.5	W 51 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Texas vs Mississippi State	-37.0	58.5	W 35 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Texas vs Oklahoma	-16.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas vs Georgia	-4.0	57.0	L 15 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/26	Texas at Vanderbilt	-17.0	50.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Texas vs Florida	-24.5	48.5	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas at Arkansas	-13.0	57.5	W 20 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/23	Texas vs Kentucky	-18.5	47.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/30	Texas at Texas A&M	-4.5	49.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/7	Texas vs Georgia	-2.5	50.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 12/21	Texas vs Clemson	-13.5	49.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Texas vs Arizona State	-13.5	52.5	W 39 - 31	O	N
Fri 1/10	Texas vs Ohio State	+6.5	51.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Michigan's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Michigan vs Fresno State	-21.0	48.0	W 30 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan vs Texas	+7.0	42.0	L 12 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/14	Michigan vs Arkansas State	-22.0	47.5	W 28 - 18	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan vs USC	+4.0	44.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan vs Minnesota	-10.5	34.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/5	Michigan at Washington	+1.5	39.5	L 17 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan at Illinois	-6.0	44.0	L 7 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Michigan vs Michigan State	-3.5	39.0	W 24 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Michigan vs Oregon	+14.5	45.5	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Michigan at Indiana	+14.5	47.5	L 15 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Michigan vs Northwestern	-10.5	35.5	W 50 - 6	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Michigan at Ohio State	+20.5	41.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Michigan vs Alabama	+16.5	45.5	W 19 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX	#33 (.28)	45% (43)	30.5	42% (81)	3.19 (54)	176	48% (16)	266	3.84 (75)	#15 (.1)	36% (14)	20.3	33% (5)	38% (26)	3.43 (38)	47.5	1.1	1.6
MICH	#11 (.33)	50% (7)	27.5	47% (31)	3.26 (39)	140	56% (2)	190	4.79 (10)	#1 (-.01)	32% (1)	20.4	32% (4)	33% (4)	2.37 (1)	22.8	0.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MICH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Offense	14	30.5	19.8	44.7%	3.84	1.1	21	442	176	266	4.9	49%	51%	42%	48%	14%	.28
MICH Defense	15	20.4	13.3	32.3%	2.37	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	32%	33%	21%	-.01

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Defense	14	20.3	25.8	35.9%	3.43	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	33%	38%	19%	.1
MICH Offense	15	27.5	29.2	50.3%	4.79	0.5	18	330	140	190	4.3	56%	44%	47%	56%	11%	.33

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas	14	29:31	21.4	39%	63%	5.9	47.5	1.1	1.6	5.4	2.1	5	31
Michigan	15	28:25	17.7	47%	79%	2.5	22.8	0.5	1.6	4.9	2.1	4	33.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Offense	14	49% (80)	42% (81)	35.6	175.6	4.9	26 (30)	.21 (35)	3.19 (54)	64% (121)	8% (33)	1.13 (14)
MICH Defense	15	49% (50)	32% (4)	-	-	-	-	-.09 (1)	2.57 (9)	55% (4)	12% (13)	0.85 (11)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Defense	14	41% (4)	33% (5)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (4)	2.45 (5)	54% (2)	11% (37)	0.79 (5)
MICH Offense	15	56% (25)	47% (31)	32.9	140.2	4.3	35 (5)	.19 (45)	3.26 (39)	76% (46)	7% (7)	0.91 (107)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Offense	14	51% (50)	48% (16)	20.9	30.9	266.4	8.6	12.7	24 (41)	9 (40)	.35 (38)	1.5 (102)	30% (32)	34% (32)	.45 (32)	5% (46)	2.1 (52)
MICH Defense	15	50% (79)	33% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.09 (7)	1.6 (67)	36% (19)	25% (16)	.07 (1)	9% (3)	1.7 (3)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Defense	14	58% (131)	38% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.24 (52)	1.7 (92)	36% (20)	28% (31)	.27 (42)	8% (15)	2.1 (87)
MICH Offense	15	44% (105)	56% (2)	15.5	21	189.6	9	12.2	21 (65)	5 (6)	.55 (5)	1.5 (89)	28% (11)	38% (11)	.52 (16)	4% (12)	2 (77)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 25.36 #3
Texas's Offense Rating: 23.63 #31
Texas's Defense Rating: -0.40 #3
2024 Talent Rating: 617.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 66% #4
Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 25.36 Michigan: 10.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 24.1 Michigan: 10.6

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Michigan's Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Michigan's Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
2024 Talent Rating: 550.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 10
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas 30
Michigan 15

Projected Total Points: 45

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.2
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.3

Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/31	Texas	41	Michigan	27	Texas -7.0	Texas	50.0	Over
2024	09/07	Michigan	12	Texas	31	Texas -7	Texas	42.0	Over
2004	01/01	Texas	38	Michigan	37

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan	0	0	2 Overs
Texas	3	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#3) TEX at (#43) MICH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TEX	MICH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#3	#43
SP+SP+	#7	#26
Perf GradeGrade	#5	#21
OffenseOff	#18	#101
DefenseDef	#1	#7
Spec TeamsST	#33	#38
TalentTal	#6	#9
Blue ChipsBC%	#4	#16

Texas Injury Report

Michigan Notes(12/24) Signed QB Keene (Fresno) w Underwood
(12/11) Hired OC Chip Lindsey? (NC, UCF, Troy HC)
(12/3) Fired OC Kirk Campbell after the season
(12/1) Beat OSU again, Rgame tough, Def incredible
(11/13) Great 2nd H vs IU, nearly won. Off just sucks
(10/28) QB Tuttle retired after 5th concussion
(10/20) Star CB Johnson left Ill game (inj)
(10/19) Off gained yds but 3 TOs killed em. Bad team
(10/14) Replaced LT (worst PFF graded LT), shuffling OL
(10/10) Staff needs changing. DC Wink has to go
(10/6) QB Tuttle healthy, playing. Didn't matter vs UW
(9/21) Bully balled USC w/ a high school Off & great D
Michigan Injury Report

Texas on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MICH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#7
SuccessSuc	#43	#1
ExplosiveExp	#40	#37
PPAPPA	#33	#1
PowerPwr	#31	#51
SP+SP+	#13	#10
Pts POPPO	#75	#1
HavocHav	#27	#6

Texas Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MICH Def
Run GameRun	#25	#2
Run SuccessRSuc	#81	#4
Run ExplRExp	#14	#11
PPAExp	#35	#1
Run BlockR Blk	#33	-
OL YdsOLY	#54	#9
Stuff RateStuff	#79	#22
TackleTak	-	#10

Texas Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MICH Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#16	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#67
PPAExp	#38	#7
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#1	#1
F7 HavocF7	#33	#13
DB HavocDB	#46	#3

Michigan on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	TEX Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#101	#1
SuccessSuc	#7	#14
ExplosiveExp	#106	#94
PPAPPA	#11	#15
PowerPwr	#116	#3
SP+SP+	#93	#2
Pts POPPO	#10	#38
HavocHav	#6	#21

Michigan Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#58	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#31	#5
Run ExplRExp	#107	#5
PPAExp	#45	#4
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	#39	#5
Stuff RateStuff	#6	#11
TackleTak	-	#35

Michigan Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#125	#1
Pass SuccessPSuc	#2	#26
Pass ExplPExl	#89	#92
PPAExp	#5	#52
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#90	#5
F7 HavocF7	#7	#37
DB HavocDB	#12	#15

Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Declining CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Down to Average P4

TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Texas 7.0 (42.0)
Texas won at Michigan this year (31-12)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Michigan last year (41-27)
Texas beat Michigan in 2024 (31-12)

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quinn Ewers	293	445	66%	3472	31	12	7.8
Arch Manning	61	90	68%	938	9	2	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	226	1064	5	4.7	43
Jaydon Blue	134	730	8	5.4	77
Jerrick Gibson	78	377	4	4.8	25
Arch Manning	25	108	4	4.3	67

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Golden (Tr)	58	987	9	17.0	54
Gunnar Helm	60	786	7	13.1	49
Isaiah Bond (Tr)	34	540	5	15.9	56
DeAndre Moore Jr.	39	455	7	11.7	49

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Andrew Mukuba (Tr)	69	4	0	1	6
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	48	14	9	9	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Trey Moore (Tr)	36	11	7	6	1
Barryn Sorrell	43	11	6	12	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Malik Muhammad	36	1	0	0	8

MICH's OC Kirk Campbell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Davis Warren	133	207	64%	1198	7	9	5.8
Jack Tuttle	30	50	60%	306	1	2	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kalel Mullings	185	948	12	5.1	63
Donovan Edwards	128	589	4	4.6	41
Alex Orji	57	269	1	4.7	29
Jordan Marshall	31	120	0	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Colston Loveland	56	582	5	10.4	36
Tyler Morris	23	248	2	10.8	28
Semaj Morgan	27	139	1	5.1	31
Fredrick Moore	11	128	1	11.6	20

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ernest Hausmann	89	7	2	2	1
Jaishawn Barham (Tr)	66	4	1	5	2
Mason Graham	46	7	4	3	1
Makari Paige	45	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josaiah Stewart	33	13	9	7	0
TJ Guy	32	7	6	6	0
Derrick Moore	23	6	4	4	2
Mason Graham	46	7	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zeke Berry	37	3	0	2	9
Jyaire Hill	35	6	1	0	8
Quinten Johnson	43	1	0	0	5