Akron at Northern Illinois - 2024 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, November 13th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Northern Illinois -14 (43.5) (-600) Open: -18.0
Northern Illinois 29 - Akron: 16 (Mid-American)

Zips (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Joe Moorhead (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 20 - 32 (17 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

AKR coming off BYE
Our Line: Northern Illinois -18 (SP+ NIU -14)
Projected Score: AKR: 14 - NIU: 32 (45)
NIU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
AKR Travel: 381 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Huskies (8 - 5) (5 - 6 - 2)
Coach Thomas Hammock (24 - 33)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
AKR Players
NIU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Akron's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Akron at Ohio State	+50.5	58.5	L 6 - 52	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Akron at Rutgers	+24.5	41.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/14	Akron vs Colgate	-13.5	48.5	W 31 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/21	Akron at South Carolina	+25.0	42.0	L 7 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	Akron at Ohio	+8.5	46.0	L 10 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/5	Akron vs Bowling Green	+17.0	48.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Akron at Western Michigan	+9.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Akron vs Eastern Michigan	+2.5	50.5	W 25 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Akron vs Buffalo	-1.0	49.0	L 30 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/13	Akron at Northern Illinois	+14.0	43.5	L 16 - 29	O	Y
Tue 11/19	Akron at Kent State	-10.5	49.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Akron vs Toledo	+9.5	50.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Akron's Schedule

Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois	-36.5	55.5	W 54 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Northern Illinois at Notre Dame	+28.5	46.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Northern Illinois vs Buffalo	-13.0	42.5	L 20 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/28	Northern Illinois at NC State	+7.0	46.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts	-14.0	41.0	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 10/12	Northern Illinois at Bowling Green	+3.0	46.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Northern Illinois vs Toledo	-3.0	42.5	L 6 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northern Illinois at Ball State	-13.5	47.5	L 23 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Northern Illinois at Western Michigan	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Wed 11/13	Northern Illinois vs Akron	-14.0	43.5	W 29 - 16	O	N
Tue 11/19	Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)	+1.5	43.0	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Mon 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Fresno State	-2.0	41.0	W 28 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AKR	#122 (.07)	39% (114)	20.4	44% (64)	2.82 (103)	101	36% (118)	233	3.26 (120)	#91 (.21)	45% (101)	32	41% (55)	49% (126)	4.19 (108)	48.7	1.7	0.8
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)	24.5	44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)	18.5	41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AKR	#122 (.07)	39% (114)		44% (64)	2.82 (103)	101	36% (118)	233	3.26 (120)	#91 (.21)	45% (101)		41% (55)	49% (126)	4.19 (108)	48.7	1.7	0.8
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)		44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)		41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AKR Offense	12	20.4	16.9	38.8%	3.26	1.7	18	333	101	233	3.5	40%	59%	44%	36%	17%	.07
NIU Defense	13	18.5	17.2	37.7%	3.08	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	35%	17%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AKR Defense	12	32	37.3	44.6%	4.19	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	41%	49%	14%	.21
NIU Offense	13	24.5	27.8	42.1%	3.39	1.2	21	383	204	179	4.8	59%	41%	44%	40%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Akron	12	28:33	17.9	36%	31%	6.3	48.7	1.7	0.8	5	1.5	2	26.4
Northern Illinois	13	33:20	21.5	42%	45%	4.2	42.8	1.2	1.1	5.4	2.5	1	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AKR Offense	12	40% (124)	44% (64)	28.5	100.5	3.5	11 (116)	.03 (114)	2.82 (103)	78% (34)	10% (77)	0.91 (93)
NIU Defense	13	49% (44)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	.08 (45)	3.06 (79)	74% (73)	11% (53)	0.9 (33)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AKR Defense	12	54% (111)	41% (55)	-	-	-	-	.1 (57)	2.95 (58)	65% (24)	9% (95)	0.98 (66)
NIU Offense	13	59% (11)	44% (72)	42.8	204.2	4.8	22 (55)	.14 (66)	3.25 (33)	72% (83)	9% (60)	1 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AKR Offense	12	59% (13)	36% (118)	19.5	35	232.5	6.6	11.9	16 (87)	10 (63)	.12 (118)	1.6 (54)	35% (121)	25% (120)	.07 (133)	7% (91)	2.1 (36)
NIU Defense	13	51% (93)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.04 (4)	1.5 (55)	36% (15)	25% (10)	.18 (16)	7% (37)	2 (67)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AKR Defense	12	45% (23)	49% (126)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.37 (122)	1.5 (45)	28% (120)	36% (121)	.45 (114)	5% (90)	2.1 (71)
NIU Offense	13	41% (124)	40% (86)	16.5	28.5	179.1	6.3	10.8	16 (87)	8 (40)	.23 (84)	1.6 (58)	31% (68)	30% (89)	.17 (117)	5% (39)	1.9 (116)

Akron's Power Ratings
Akron's Power Rating: -19.03 #121
Akron's Offense Rating: 12.44 #118
Akron's Defense Rating: 12.15 #90
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #62
Akron's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Akron's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #123
Akron's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.7 #129
Akron's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Akron: -19.03 Northern Illinois: -0.635

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Akron: -17.9 Northern Illinois: -3.5

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -0.635 #73
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 16.86 #97
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 2.99 #11
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Northern Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Northern Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #84
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #115
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #32

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Akron Scoring
Offense: 20.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.9
Defense: 32 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Akron's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Northern Illinois 32
Akron 14

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 23
Akron 20

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Northern Illinois 30
Akron 19

Total Points: 49

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.2

Northern Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 2
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/13	Northern Illinois	29	Akron	16	Northern Illinois -14	Akron	43.5	Over
2023	10/07	Akron	14	Northern Illinois	55	Northern Illinois -4	Northern Illinois	42.5	Over
2022	11/26	Northern Illinois	12	Akron	44	Northern Illinois -9.5	Akron	51.5	Over
2019	10/26	Northern Illinois	49	Akron	0	Northern Illinois -22	Northern Illinois	42.5	Over
2018	11/01	Akron	26	Northern Illinois	36	Northern Illinois -6	Northern Illinois	37.0	Over
2013	10/12	Northern Illinois	27	Akron	20	Northern Illinois -21.5	Akron	0
2012	10/20	Akron	7	Northern Illinois	37
2010	10/02	Akron	14	Northern Illinois	50
2009	10/31	Northern Illinois	27	Akron	10
2005	09/24	Akron	48	Northern Illinois	42
2005	12/01	Northern Illinois	30	Akron	31
2004	10/02	Northern Illinois	49	Akron	19
2000	10/13	Akron	35	Northern Illinois	52

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northern Illinois	10	3	5 Overs
Akron	3	3	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 7	1 - 5	1 - 3	0 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 6	5 - 1	2 - 0	3 - 1

(#121) AKR at (#73) NIU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AKR	NIU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#121	#73
SP+SP+	#123	#84
Perf GradeGrade	#135	#51
OffenseOff	#132	#80
DefenseDef	#127	#24
Spec TeamsST	#124	#38
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#62	#102

Akron Notes(11/27) Upset Toledo in finale. Outgained by 100+
(11/27) Won 3 of last 5, competitive team most of season
(11/18) Run game awful vs N Ill, 50 rush, 19/52 pass
(10/27) Run game great vs EMU in W, 220 yds, 7.1 ypc
(10/13) Finley great, Rgame awful, 4 TO's in L WMU
(10/4) Pass heavy Off is awful but Run game is worse
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Zips may be CFB #2 worst
(8/16) Ohio St, Rutgers and SC? Why?
(8/16) Off was dead last LY. Not much TY
(7/30) Def has some pieces, DB's need rebuild
(7/30) HC Moorhead has 4 wins in 2 yrs. Hot Seat?
(7/30) New QB Finley (Cal) has no proven weapons into '24
Akron Injury Report

Northern Illinois Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Akron, QB meh, Run Def great
(11/8) Off healthy & improved. Rgame/QB Hampton good
(11/7) Owned WMU. Big plays, caused TO's, KR TD
(10/20) Near 400 yds and only 6 pts (Tol)? 4-19 3rd bad
(10/18) Def ranks top 25 in 13 diff stats, #4 in ypg (253)
(10/18) Great 3rd down Def 20% (#1) & Off 48% (#22)
(10/18) New QB Holst v mobile, cannot pass from pocket
(10/14) QB Hampton left BG game (concussion)
(10/13) DL mauled BGU. 5 sacks, hurt QB. Great Def
(10/4) Best Def in MAC? Off #'s awful so far, check back
(9/28) Def held NC St to 171 yds but 4 TOs killed them
(9/8) Outgained ND 388-286, best W of CFB, Def v good?
Northern Illinois Injury Report

Akron on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	NIU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#132	#24
SuccessSuc	#114	#19
ExplosiveExp	#66	#37
PPAPPA	#122	#11
PowerPwr	#118	#11
SP+SP+	#129	#32
Pts POPPO	#120	#12
HavocHav	#85	#48

Akron Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#112	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	#64	#52
Run ExplRExp	#93	#33
PPAExp	#114	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	#103	#79
Stuff RateStuff	#100	#104
TackleTak	-	#3

Akron Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#32
Pass SuccessPSuc	#118	#9
Pass ExplPExl	#54	#55
PPAExp	#118	#4
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#128	#73
F7 HavocF7	#77	#53
DB HavocDB	#91	#37

Northern Illinois on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	AKR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#80	#127
SuccessSuc	#79	#101
ExplosiveExp	#96	#54
PPAPPA	#86	#91
PowerPwr	#97	#90
SP+SP+	#115	#117
Pts POPPO	#113	#108
HavocHav	#44	#96

Northern Illinois Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	AKR Def
Run GameRun	#90	#115
Run SuccessRSuc	#72	#55
Run ExplRExp	#54	#66
PPAExp	#66	#57
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#33	#58
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#37
TackleTak	-	#136

Northern Illinois Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	AKR Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#130
Pass SuccessPSuc	#86	#126
Pass ExplPExl	#58	#45
PPAExp	#84	#122
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#58	#124
F7 HavocF7	#60	#95
DB HavocDB	#39	#90

Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

AKR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 47° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Northern Illinois -14.0 (43.5)
Northern Illinois won vs Akron this year (29-16)

Previous Matchups
Northern Illinois beat Akron last year (29-16)
Northern Illinois beat Akron in 2023 (55-14)
Akron beat Northern Illinois in 2022 (44-12)

AKR's OC Taylor Housewright (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Finley (Tr)	211	387	55%	2581	16	9	6.7
Tahj Bullock	22	30	73%	200	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Simmons	110	664	2	6.0	73
Charles Kellom	85	358	1	4.2	43
Tahj Bullock	53	138	8	2.6	15
Ben Finley (Tr)	80	51	0	0.6	33

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Adrian Norton	43	832	7	19.3	60
Bobby Golden	31	446	1	14.4	56
Ahmarian Granger	17	308	2	18.1	72
Jacob Newell	35	254	2	7.3	29

View Akron's Full Roster

AKR's DC Tim Tibesar (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryan McCoy	120	3	0	3	2
Paul Lewis III (Tr)	76	6	0	1	6
Darrian Lewis	72	3	0	0	6
Antavious Fish	67	2	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Nunnally	55	12	6	4	0
Bennett Adler	34	7	3	5	1
Kabbash Richards	9	6	2	0	0
Dimitri Madden (Tr)	4	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Devonte Nelson	33	1	0	7
Darrian Lewis	72	3	0	6
Paul Lewis III (Tr)	76	6	1	6

NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Hampton	143	245	58%	1608	12	6	6.6
Josh Holst	65	111	59%	593	2	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Williams	139	749	4	5.4	71
Antario Brown	115	567	4	4.9	49
Telly Johnson Jr.	103	480	4	4.7	38
Josh Holst	49	230	1	4.7	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	37	403	1	10.9	48
Cam Thompson	27	388	3	14.4	54
Grayson Barnes	31	338	4	10.9	60
Andrew McElroy (Tr)	26	264	0	10.2	42

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Fuhrman (Tr)	61	4	0	1	1
Jaden Dolphin	61	3	0	0	2
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte O'Malley	38	12	9	4	1
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1
Nevaeh Sanders	8	5	5	2	0
Skyler Gill-Howard	48	7	5	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8
Jacob Finley	36	3	1	0	8
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4