Massachusetts at Northern Illinois - 2024 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Northern Illinois Huskies

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Northern Illinois -14 (41.0) (-575) Open: -16.5
Northern Illinois 34 - Massachusetts: 20

Minutemen (2 - 10) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Shane Montgomery (Int) (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (18 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 18.3 MPH
UMASS 2nd straight Road Game
UMASS is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Northern Illinois -18.5 (SP+ NIU -18)
Projected Score: UMASS: 13 - NIU: 32 (45)
NIU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
UMASS Travel: 831 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Huskies (8 - 5) (5 - 6 - 2)
Coach Thomas Hammock (24 - 33)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
NIU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan	-2.5	49.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/7	Massachusetts at Toledo	+17.5	50.5	L 23 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Massachusetts at Buffalo	+3.5	45.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/21	Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut	-19.5	52.0	W 35 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/28	Massachusetts at Miami (OH)	+15.5	44.5	L 20 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Massachusetts at Northern Illinois	+14.0	41.0	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Massachusetts vs Missouri	+27.0	54.0	L 3 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Massachusetts vs Wagner	-23.0	48.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Massachusetts at Mississippi State	+19.5	59.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Massachusetts vs Liberty	+17.0	53.0	L 34 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Massachusetts at Georgia	+42.5	55.5	L 21 - 59	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Massachusetts vs UConn	+9.5	49.5	L 42 - 47	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois	-36.5	55.5	W 54 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Northern Illinois at Notre Dame	+28.5	46.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Northern Illinois vs Buffalo	-13.0	42.5	L 20 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/28	Northern Illinois at NC State	+7.0	46.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts	-14.0	41.0	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 10/12	Northern Illinois at Bowling Green	+3.0	46.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Northern Illinois vs Toledo	-3.0	42.5	L 6 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northern Illinois at Ball State	-13.5	47.5	L 23 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Northern Illinois at Western Michigan	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Wed 11/13	Northern Illinois vs Akron	-14.0	43.5	W 29 - 16	O	N
Tue 11/19	Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)	+1.5	43.0	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Mon 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Fresno State	-2.0	41.0	W 28 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)	22.5	43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)	35.5	51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)	24.5	44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)	18.5	41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)		43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)		51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)		44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)		41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	22.5	17.8	40.8%	3.73	0.8	20	346	164	182	4.1	56%	44%	43%	38%	17%	.19
NIU Defense	13	18.5	17.2	37.7%	3.08	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	35%	17%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	35.5	38.8	46.3%	4.66	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	40%	14%	.26
NIU Offense	13	24.5	27.8	42.1%	3.39	1.2	21	383	204	179	4.8	59%	41%	44%	40%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	32:19	19.7	38%	58%	7.3	63.2	0.8	0.8	4.1	1.3	1	25.4
Northern Illinois	13	33:20	21.5	42%	45%	4.2	42.8	1.2	1.1	5.4	2.5	1	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	56% (27)	43% (78)	40.2	164	4.1	18 (78)	.16 (53)	3.1 (50)	74% (62)	11% (95)	0.96 (68)
NIU Defense	13	49% (44)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	.08 (45)	3.06 (79)	74% (73)	11% (53)	0.9 (33)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.25 (125)	3.51 (131)	87% (131)	8% (113)	0.95 (52)
NIU Offense	13	59% (11)	44% (72)	42.8	204.2	4.8	22 (55)	.14 (66)	3.25 (33)	72% (83)	9% (60)	1 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	44% (109)	38% (110)	15.6	27.3	181.8	6.7	11.7	14 (108)	6 (10)	.23 (81)	1.7 (22)	33% (87)	32% (57)	.34 (69)	6% (80)	2 (98)
NIU Defense	13	51% (93)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.04 (4)	1.5 (55)	36% (15)	25% (10)	.18 (16)	7% (37)	2 (67)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	39% (2)	40% (71)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.29 (100)	1.7 (112)	28% (118)	28% (29)	.27 (51)	6% (72)	2.1 (89)
NIU Offense	13	41% (124)	40% (86)	16.5	28.5	179.1	6.3	10.8	16 (87)	8 (40)	.23 (84)	1.6 (58)	31% (68)	30% (89)	.17 (117)	5% (39)	1.9 (116)

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -16.22 #115
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Massachusetts's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -16.22 Northern Illinois: -0.635

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -21.9 Northern Illinois: -3.5

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -0.635 #73
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 16.86 #97
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 2.99 #11
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Northern Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Northern Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #84
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #115
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #32

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.8

Massachusetts's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Northern Illinois 32
Massachusetts 13

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 26
Massachusetts 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Northern Illinois 32
Massachusetts 19

Total Points: 51

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.2

Northern Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 2
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/12	Massachusetts	3	Northern Illinois	45	Northern Illinois -8.5	Northern Illinois	43.5	Over
2024	10/05	Northern Illinois	34	Massachusetts	20	Northern Illinois -14	Push	41.0	Over
2013	11/02	Massachusetts	19	Northern Illinois	63	Northern Illinois -24	Northern Illinois	0
2012	11/03	Northern Illinois	63	Massachusetts	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northern Illinois	4	2	2 Overs
Massachusetts	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2
Road Teams	2 - 2	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0

(#115) UMASS at (#73) NIU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UMASS	NIU
Power RatePwr	#115	#73
SP+SP+	#129	#84
Perf GradeGrade	#128	#51
OffenseOff	#114	#80
DefenseDef	#117	#24
Spec TeamsST	#126	#38
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#102

Massachusetts Notes(12/18) Hired HC Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC)
(11/18) HC Brown fired, OC Montgomery interim
(11/18) 1-5 stretch, fight w/ Liberty, Rgame good
(9/14) Very competitive 0-2. Outgained Toledo by 100 yds
(8/11) Play Clanga/Mizzu/Liberty/UGA weeks 7-13
(7/30) Lost a ton via portal, did add some. Depth issues.
(7/30) HC Brown improving each year, could they bowl?
(7/30) OL portal rebuild, top 2 RB's portaled out
(7/30) QB Phommachanh bad, WR mostly portal adds
(7/30) Run D nearly last in CFB LY, doesn't look much better
Massachusetts Injury Report

Northern Illinois Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Akron, QB meh, Run Def great
(11/8) Off healthy & improved. Rgame/QB Hampton good
(11/7) Owned WMU. Big plays, caused TO's, KR TD
(10/20) Near 400 yds and only 6 pts (Tol)? 4-19 3rd bad
(10/18) Def ranks top 25 in 13 diff stats, #4 in ypg (253)
(10/18) Great 3rd down Def 20% (#1) & Off 48% (#22)
(10/18) New QB Holst v mobile, cannot pass from pocket
(10/14) QB Hampton left BG game (concussion)
(10/13) DL mauled BGU. 5 sacks, hurt QB. Great Def
(10/4) Best Def in MAC? Off #'s awful so far, check back
(9/28) Def held NC St to 171 yds but 4 TOs killed them
(9/8) Outgained ND 388-286, best W of CFB, Def v good?
Northern Illinois Injury Report

Massachusetts on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	NIU Def
Perf GradePerf	#114	#24
SuccessSuc	#94	#19
ExplosiveExp	#72	#37
PPAPPA	#69	#11
PowerPwr	#69	#11
SP+SP+	#110	#32
Pts POPPO	#89	#12
HavocHav	#95	#48

Massachusetts Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#119	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	#78	#52
Run ExplRExp	#68	#33
PPAExp	#53	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#79
Stuff RateStuff	#38	#104
TackleTak	-	#3

Massachusetts Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#32
Pass SuccessPSuc	#110	#9
Pass ExplPExl	#22	#55
PPAExp	#81	#4
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#57	#73
F7 HavocF7	#95	#53
DB HavocDB	#80	#37

Northern Illinois on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	UMASS Def
Perf GradePerf	#80	#117
SuccessSuc	#79	#116
ExplosiveExp	#96	#41
PPAPPA	#86	#114
PowerPwr	#97	#122
SP+SP+	#115	#129
Pts POPPO	#113	#129
HavocHav	#44	#106

Northern Illinois Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#90	#119
Run SuccessRSuc	#72	#128
Run ExplRExp	#54	#52
PPAExp	#66	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#33	#131
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#131
TackleTak	-	#14

Northern Illinois Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#104
Pass SuccessPSuc	#86	#71
Pass ExplPExl	#58	#112
PPAExp	#84	#100
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#58	#86
F7 HavocF7	#60	#113
DB HavocDB	#39	#72

Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 72° - Wind: 18 mph

Rematch from Week 6
Northern Illinois -14.0 (41.0)
Northern Illinois won vs Massachusetts this year (34-20)

Previous Matchups
Northern Illinois beat Massachusetts last year (34-20)

UMASS's OC Shane Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh	132	234	56%	1590	8	6	6.8
AJ Hairston	40	73	55%	480	5	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen John	111	583	5	5.3	68
C.J. Hester (Tr)	119	529	4	4.4	24
Taisun Phommachanh	107	317	3	3.0	33
Brandon Campbell (Tr)	61	233	3	3.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jakobie Keeney-James (Tr)	51	870	6	17.1	75
Ty Harding	18	303	5	16.8	58
Jacquon Gibson	23	270	1	11.7	39
Sterling Galban (Tr)	25	210	0	8.4	21

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Stewart	77	3	3	1	2
Gerrell Johnson	74	3	1	2	2
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	0	0	3
Te'Rai Powell	52	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Louce Julien	43	7	4	1	1
Kofi Asare	30	6	3	1	1
Jalen Stewart	77	3	3	1	2
Christian Lebrun	22	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Lake Ellis (Tr)	29	3	5
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4
Tim Grant-Randall (Tr)	27	2	3

NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Hampton	143	245	58%	1608	12	6	6.6
Josh Holst	65	111	59%	593	2	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Williams	139	749	4	5.4	71
Antario Brown	115	567	4	4.9	49
Telly Johnson Jr.	103	480	4	4.7	38
Josh Holst	49	230	1	4.7	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	37	403	1	10.9	48
Cam Thompson	27	388	3	14.4	54
Grayson Barnes	31	338	4	10.9	60
Andrew McElroy (Tr)	26	264	0	10.2	42

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Fuhrman (Tr)	61	4	0	1	1
Jaden Dolphin	61	3	0	0	2
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte O'Malley	38	12	9	4	1
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1
Nevaeh Sanders	8	5	5	2	0
Skyler Gill-Howard	48	7	5	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8
Jacob Finley	36	3	1	0	8
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4