UTEP at Western Kentucky - 2024 Matchup Preview

UTEP Miners at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Thursday, October 10th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Western Kentucky -19 (55.5) (-1200) Open: -18.5
Western Kentucky 44 - UTEP: 17 (Conference USA)

Miners (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 32 (15 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WKU coming off BYE
Our Line: Western Kentucky -20.5 (SP+ WKU -21)
Projected Score: UTEP: 15 - WKU: 36 (51)
WKU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
UTEP Travel: 1196 miles, 1 hrs behind

Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (26 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UTEP Players
WKU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UTEP's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UTEP at Nebraska	+27.5	49.0	L 7 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/7	UTEP vs Southern Utah	-6.5	54.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/14	UTEP at Liberty	+23.5	57.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	UTEP at Colorado State	+8.5	49.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/3	UTEP vs Sam Houston	+10.0	49.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Thu 10/10	UTEP at Western Kentucky	+19.0	55.5	L 17 - 44	O	N
Wed 10/16	UTEP vs Florida International	+7.0	47.0	W 30 - 21	O	Y
Tue 10/22	UTEP at Louisiana Tech	+6.5	49.0	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	UTEP vs Middle Tennessee	-2.0	48.0	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	UTEP vs Kennesaw State	-4.5	42.0	W 43 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UTEP at Tennessee	+41.5	54.0	L 0 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/30	UTEP at New Mexico State	+3.5	51.5	W 42 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Western Kentucky at Alabama	+31.0	60.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/7	Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-18.5	59.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee	-10.5	53.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Western Kentucky vs Toledo	+2.0	60.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Western Kentucky at Boston College	+7.5	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Western Kentucky vs UTEP	-19.0	55.5	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/16	Western Kentucky at Sam Houston	+1.5	55.0	W 31 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30	Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/9	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	-18.0	53.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/16	Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech	-11.5	52.5	L 7 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/23	Western Kentucky at Liberty	+1.0	56.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State	+0.5	62.5	W 19 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/6	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	+4.5	58.5	L 12 - 52	O	N
Wed 12/18	Western Kentucky vs James Madison	+7.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP	#121 (.07)	37% (124)	19.5	38% (118)	2.8 (106)	121	36% (117)	200	2.81 (132)	#46 (.13)	40% (42)	32.3	40% (42)	39% (46)	3.85 (78)	50.9	1.6	1.5
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)	24.9	38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)	24.6	48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP	#121 (.07)	37% (124)		38% (118)	2.8 (106)	121	36% (117)	200	2.81 (132)	#46 (.13)	40% (42)		40% (42)	39% (46)	3.85 (78)	50.9	1.6	1.5
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)		38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)		48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Offense	12	19.5	14.7	37%	2.81	1.6	17	321	121	200	3.3	52%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.07
WKU Defense	14	24.6	13.5	44.7%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	63%	36%	48%	40%	13%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Defense	12	32.3	34.9	39.7%	3.85	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	40%	39%	18%	.13
WKU Offense	14	24.9	26.3	41.8%	3.83	1.7	19	374	110	265	3.5	45%	55%	38%	45%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UTEP	12	27:57	16.7	33%	30%	5.7	50.9	1.6	1.5	7.1	2.9	2	27.1
Western Kentucky	14	27:52	19.3	41%	59%	4.1	41.3	1.7	1.5	4.9	1.6	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Offense	12	52% (56)	38% (118)	36.4	120.8	3.3	9 (125)	.02 (118)	2.8 (106)	59% (127)	13% (125)	0.88 (114)
WKU Defense	14	63% (134)	48% (113)	-	-	-	-	.19 (103)	3.36 (116)	77% (93)	9% (88)	0.9 (35)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Defense	12	54% (103)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	.07 (40)	2.85 (44)	59% (7)	12% (18)	1.07 (102)
WKU Offense	14	45% (105)	38% (117)	31.1	109.7	3.5	14 (98)	.01 (121)	2.78 (108)	69% (100)	11% (87)	0.95 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Offense	12	47% (81)	36% (117)	18.6	30.4	200	6.6	10.8	15 (98)	12 (85)	.15 (108)	1.5 (112)	34% (111)	23% (128)	.23 (104)	7% (110)	2.2 (20)
WKU Defense	14	36% (1)	40% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (99)	1.8 (128)	28% (116)	29% (47)	.23 (37)	3% (132)	2.1 (92)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Defense	12	46% (36)	39% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.21 (54)	1.7 (115)	34% (34)	30% (56)	.28 (59)	6% (66)	2.1 (75)
WKU Offense	14	55% (26)	45% (33)	22.1	33.5	264.6	7.9	12	28 (15)	12 (85)	.36 (28)	1.6 (59)	33% (91)	30% (91)	.29 (89)	6% (56)	1.9 (100)

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -23.79 #127
UTEP's Offense Rating: 10.45 #128
UTEP's Defense Rating: 12.53 #95
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
UTEP's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UTEP's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.7 #130
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -23.79 Western Kentucky: -2.645

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -22.7 Western Kentucky: -2.2

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -2.645 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 19.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.7
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.9

UTEP's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 36
UTEP 15

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Kentucky 30
UTEP 14

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Western Kentucky 30
UTEP 18

Total Points: 48

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.3
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.5

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/10	Western Kentucky	44	UTEP	17	Western Kentucky -19	Western Kentucky	55.5	Over
2023	11/04	UTEP	13	Western Kentucky	21	Western Kentucky -9.5	UTEP	54.5	Under
2018	11/17	Western Kentucky	40	UTEP	16	Western Kentucky -6.5	Western Kentucky	47.5	Over
2017	10/07	UTEP	14	Western Kentucky	15	Western Kentucky -16.5	UTEP	53.5	Under
2014	11/08	Western Kentucky	35	UTEP	27	Western Kentucky -9	UTEP	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Kentucky	5	2	2 Overs
UTEP	0	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	4 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 4	0 - 2	1 - 2

(#127) UTEP at (#92) WKU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTEP	WKU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#127	#92
SP+SP+	#130	#78
Perf GradeGrade	#130	#64
OffenseOff	#127	#60
DefenseDef	#105	#81
Spec TeamsST	#136	#79
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#82

UTEP Notes(12/11) Joining MWC on July 1, 2026
(10/23) Locklear benched in La Tech, Fr JD Pickles no arm
(10/18) QB Locklear #1 (benched earlier) w/ McConnell out
(10/17) Def 4 TOs, 3 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 FIU QBs knocked out
(10/16) Every Defensive starter listed as SR or GR
(10/10) Better vs WKU, expl plays. Def just can't hold up
(10/3) Off a mess, TO's, flags, drops. Def plays hard
(10/2) Def better than #'s, Off is awful. WR worst
(9/8) Outrushed 268-124 by S. Utah? Run D awful
(8/3) Front 7 decimated, will be bad vs run TY
(7/30) Portal 27 in/38 out, took 11 portals from A Peay
(7/30) QB Battle Locklear(A.P.)/McConnell some PT LY
UTEP Injury Report

Western Kentucky Notes(12/18) Zero Rgame/OL bad in bowl. QB Vetkamp great
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
(8/3) TO luck big LY, regression? Off Great, D Awful
Western Kentucky Injury Report

UTEP on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	WKU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#127	#81
SuccessSuc	#124	#102
ExplosiveExp	#125	#36
PPAPPA	#121	#95
PowerPwr	#128	#86
SP+SP+	#131	#62
Pts POPPO	#132	#54
HavocHav	#126	#122

UTEP Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#121	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#113
Run ExplRExp	#114	#35
PPAExp	#118	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#106	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#118	#128
TackleTak	-	#6

UTEP Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#128
PPAExp	#108	#99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#42
F7 HavocF7	#125	#88
DB HavocDB	#110	#132

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	UTEP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#60	#105
SuccessSuc	#83	#42
ExplosiveExp	#33	#111
PPAPPA	#66	#46
PowerPwr	#71	#95
SP+SP+	#101	#113
Pts POPPO	#78	#78
HavocHav	#73	#34

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#114	#86
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#42
Run ExplRExp	#75	#102
PPAExp	#121	#40
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#44
Stuff RateStuff	#103	#34
TackleTak	-	#51

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#118
Pass SuccessPSuc	#33	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#115
PPAExp	#28	#54
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#5	#81
F7 HavocF7	#87	#18
DB HavocDB	#56	#66

Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

UTEP 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 65°

Rematch from Week 7
Western Kentucky -19.0 (55.5)
Western Kentucky won vs UTEP this year (44-17)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat UTEP last year (44-17)
Western Kentucky beat UTEP in 2023 (21-13)

UTEP's OC Jake Brown (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	149	236	63%	1591	10	6	6.7
Cade McConnell	40	71	56%	540	4	3	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jevon Jackson (Tr)	191	754	4	3.9	42
Ezell Jolly	64	248	1	3.9	14
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	80	237	2	3.0	18
JP Pickles	39	133	1	3.4	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenny Odom (Tr)	47	761	8	16.2	76
Kam Thomas (Tr)	46	512	2	11.1	69
Trey Goodman (Tr)	47	469	0	10.0	37
Jaden Smith (Tr)	21	177	0	8.4	41

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC J. J. Clark (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dorian Hopkins (Tr)	87	8	1	0	1
Nate Dyman	84	10	2	3	4
Xavier Smith (Tr)	78	1	0	0	5
Kory Chapman (Tr)	76	13	3	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maurice Westmoreland	45	9	8	6	1
Kyran Duhon	43	7	7	0	2
Kadarion Johnson	39	8	4	1	1
Kory Chapman (Tr)	76	13	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Smith (Tr)	78	1	0	0	5
Josiah Allen	61	5	2	0	5
Nate Dyman	84	10	2	3	4

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caden Veltkamp	258	389	66%	3108	25	10	8.0
TJ Finley (Tr)	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	201	883	3	4.4	30
George Hart III (Tr)	44	204	2	4.6	30
Caden Veltkamp	113	150	7	1.3	25
LT Sanders	21	103	1	4.9	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)	75	925	7	12.3	51
Easton Messer	55	793	4	14.4	64
Dalvin Smith	30	397	4	13.2	65
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)	99	2	0	0	0
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2
Hosea Wheeler	62	4	2	2	0
Chandler Matthews (Tr)	59	3	0	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Thomas	54	7	4	3	0
Sebastian Benjamin	56	6	4	5	0
Kylan Guidry	45	7	3	0	1
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Johnson Jr.	48	5	0	1	6
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2