Western Kentucky at New Mexico State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (6:00 PM EST)
Western Kentucky -18.0 (53.5) (-950) Open: -17.5 | 51.5
Western Kentucky 41 - New Mexico State: 28 (Conference USA)

Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Western Kentucky -14 (SP+ WKU -17)
Projected Score: WKU: 33 - NMSU: 19 (51)
WKU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 49%
WKU Travel: 1195 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aggies (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (23 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Western Kentucky at Alabama	+31.0	60.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/7	Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-18.5	59.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee	-10.5	53.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Western Kentucky vs Toledo	+2.0	60.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Western Kentucky at Boston College	+7.5	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Western Kentucky vs UTEP	-19.0	55.5	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/16	Western Kentucky at Sam Houston	+1.5	55.0	W 31 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30	Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/9	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	-18.0	53.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/16	Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech	-11.5	52.5	L 7 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/23	Western Kentucky at Liberty	+1.0	56.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State	+0.5	62.5	W 19 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/6	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	+4.5	58.5	L 12 - 52	O	N
Wed 12/18	Western Kentucky vs James Madison	+7.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State	-9.5	52.5	W 23 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/7	New Mexico State vs Liberty	+22.5	54.5	L 24 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/14	New Mexico State at Fresno State	+19.5	48.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico State at Sam Houston	+15.5	44.5	L 11 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+9.5	54.0	L 40 - 50	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/9	New Mexico State at Jacksonville State	+21.0	58.5	L 13 - 54	O	N
Tue 10/15	New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech	+12.5	49.0	W 33 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	New Mexico State vs Florida International	+7.0	43.5	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/9	New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky	+18.0	53.5	L 28 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico State at Texas A&M	+38.5	54.5	L 3 - 38	U	Y
Sat 11/23	New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee	+3.5	54.0	W 36 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/30	New Mexico State vs UTEP	-3.5	51.5	L 35 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#47 (.22)	40% (92)	29.5	38% (119)	3.07 (78)	107	41% (70)	295	4.95 (6)	#81 (.2)	44% (98)	22.8	48% (121)	41% (53)	4 (87)	36.8	1.8	1.8
NMSU	#29 (.28)	47% (17)	21.6	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	199	42% (61)	214	3.98 (59)	#91 (.22)	45% (103)	27.6	46% (96)	44% (96)	3.73 (63)	58.3	1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	13	29.5	24.5	40%	4.95	1.8	20	402	107	295	3.9	38%	61%	38%	41%	16%	.22
NMSU Defense	15	27.6	17.7	44.5%	3.73	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	13	22.8	28	44%	4	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	48%	41%	14%	.2
NMSU Offense	15	21.6	23.2	47.3%	3.98	1	20	412	199	214	5.7	55%	45%	52%	42%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	13	29:32	20.2	43%	62%	4.5	36.8	1.8	1.8	4.4	2	1	28.2
New Mexico State	15	31:28	20.5	43%	58%	6.2	58.3	1	0.9	5.5	2.1	1	28.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (119)	27.5	106.6	3.9	12 (116)	.06 (117)	3.07 (78)	76% (45)	8% (23)	0.93 (99)
NMSU Defense	15	47% (33)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.2 (103)	3.21 (95)	74% (73)	10% (70)	1.02 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	13	52% (94)	48% (121)	-	-	-	-	.19 (98)	3.47 (125)	73% (65)	9% (109)	0.96 (45)
NMSU Offense	15	55% (31)	52% (7)	35.1	198.6	5.7	22 (51)	.27 (11)	3.57 (5)	81% (17)	8% (35)	0.96 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	13	61% (6)	41% (70)	26.4	41.5	295.2	7.1	11.2	38 (3)	14 (107)	.35 (42)	1.7 (29)	33% (90)	31% (69)	.39 (46)	9% (128)	2.4 (4)
NMSU Defense	15	52% (108)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.25 (53)	1.5 (20)	29% (114)	30% (67)	.38 (102)	6% (83)	2.3 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	13	47% (37)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.27 (64)	1.6 (69)	31% (80)	32% (99)	.37 (97)	6% (81)	1.9 (26)
NMSU Offense	15	45% (100)	42% (61)	15.7	26.2	213.7	8.2	13.6	28 (23)	10 (56)	.33 (52)	1.7 (32)	29% (15)	34% (40)	.42 (41)	6% (61)	2 (68)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -8.09 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 203.00 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -8.09 New Mexico State: -19.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.2 New Mexico State: -19.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -19.115 #129
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 14.52 #111
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 16.79 #119
2024 Talent Rating: 127.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
New Mexico State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
New Mexico State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0 #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #127

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 33
New Mexico State 19

Projected Total Points: 51

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.2
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

New Mexico State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Western Kentucky	35	New Mexico State	16	Western Kentucky -7.5	Western Kentucky	53.5	Under
2024	11/09	New Mexico State	28	Western Kentucky	41	Western Kentucky -18.0	New Mexico State	53.5	Over
2023	11/11	Western Kentucky	29	New Mexico State	38	Western Kentucky -4.5	New Mexico State	55.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	1	2	2 Overs
Western Kentucky	2	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1

(#92) WKU at (#129) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	NMSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#92	#129
SP+SP+	#78	#125
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#126
OffenseOff	#60	#130
DefenseDef	#81	#108
Spec TeamsST	#79	#72
TalentTal	#114	#128
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#53

Western Kentucky Notes(12/18) Zero Rgame/OL bad in bowl. QB Vetkamp great
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
(8/3) TO luck big LY, regression? Off Great, D Awful
Western Kentucky Injury Report

New Mexico State Notes(10/29) QBs 7-19, 30 yds, 2 INT vs FIU. Pass Off #132
(10/22) Def stop rate 48% (#122) into week 9
(10/16) Better @ home. Rgame good in La Tech upset
(10/9) Team is unbettable. Sanchez is a clown hire
(10/4) Run D allowed 330+ yds (N.M.), Pass Off near worst
(9/29) OC Wright suspended after ugly social media posts
(9/9) Hung w/ Liberty but outgained > 200 yds.
(7/30) Roster decimated by portal & staff TO, 1 Def starter
(7/30) 4/5 OL Return w/ expl. RB's. Only bright spot
(7/30) Forget Kill years, no team will step back more TY
(7/30) 4 way QB battle? Will roster have enough bodies?
(7/30) New HC Sanchez an awful hire, disaster at UNLV
New Mexico State Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	NMSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#60	#108
SuccessSuc	#92	#103
ExplosiveExp	#8	#44
PPAPPA	#47	#91
PowerPwr	#71	#119
SP+SP+	#101	#127
Pts POPPO	#6	#63
HavocHav	#74	#83

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#114	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#119	#96
Run ExplRExp	#99	#80
PPAExp	#117	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#95
Stuff RateStuff	#19	#87
TackleTak	-	#68

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#96
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#29	#20
PPAExp	#42	#53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#130
F7 HavocF7	#23	#70
DB HavocDB	#128	#83

New Mexico State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#130	#81
SuccessSuc	#17	#98
ExplosiveExp	#88	#41
PPAPPA	#29	#81
PowerPwr	#111	#86
SP+SP+	#120	#62
Pts POPPO	#59	#87
HavocHav	#34	#114

New Mexico State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#102	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#121
Run ExplRExp	#92	#45
PPAExp	#11	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#118
TackleTak	-	#6

New Mexico State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#61	#53
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#69
PPAExp	#52	#64
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#103	#42
F7 HavocF7	#35	#109
DB HavocDB	#61	#81

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Western Kentucky 18.0 (53.5)
Western Kentucky won at New Mexico State this year (41-28)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat New Mexico State last year (35-16)
Western Kentucky beat New Mexico State in 2024 (41-28)
New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (38-29)

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caden Veltkamp	258	389	66%	3108	25	10	8.0
TJ Finley (Tr)	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	201	883	3	4.4	30
George Hart III (Tr)	44	204	2	4.6	30
Caden Veltkamp	113	150	7	1.3	25
LT Sanders	21	103	1	4.9	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)	75	925	7	12.3	51
Easton Messer	55	793	4	14.4	64
Dalvin Smith	30	397	4	13.2	65
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)	99	2	0	0	0
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2
Hosea Wheeler	62	4	2	2	0
Chandler Matthews (Tr)	59	3	0	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Thomas	54	7	4	3	0
Sebastian Benjamin	56	6	4	5	0
Kylan Guidry	45	7	3	0	1
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Johnson Jr.	48	5	0	1	6
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Awad	74	159	47%	1079	7	4	6.8
Santino Marucci (Tr)	49	112	44%	519	3	5	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Seth McGowan	153	813	3	5.3	38
Michael Washington	158	713	8	4.5	47
Santino Marucci (Tr)	37	131	1	3.5	38
Larenzo McMillan	7	111	1	15.9	84

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Pride	34	374	2	11.0	53
Glynn Johnson Jr	19	346	2	18.2	54
Seth McGowan	23	277	3	12.0	43
Kordell David	18	191	0	10.6	38

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1
Da'Marcus Crosby	81	2	0	0	3
Tayden Barnes	57	2	0	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buddha Peleti	20	6	4	6	1
Kale Edwards (Tr)	36	7	4	4	0
Noah Arinze	16	5	3	1	0
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dakerric Hobbs (Tr)	36	3	1	6
Tayden Barnes	57	2	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	2	5