Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Friday, December 6th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Jacksonville State -4.5 (58.5) (-185) Open: -4.0 | 58.5
Jacksonville State 52 - Western Kentucky: 12 (Conference USA Championship)

Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (25 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

JVST is playing their 7th straight game
WKU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Jacksonville State -4.5 (SP+ JVST -1)
Projected Score: WKU: 26 - JVST: 31 (57)
JVST Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
WKU Travel: 222 miles

Gamecocks (9 - 5) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (18 - 6)
Avg Score : 36 - 26 (39 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
JVST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Western Kentucky at Alabama	+31.0	60.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/7	Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-18.5	59.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee	-10.5	53.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Western Kentucky vs Toledo	+2.0	60.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Western Kentucky at Boston College	+7.5	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Western Kentucky vs UTEP	-19.0	55.5	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/16	Western Kentucky at Sam Houston	+1.5	55.0	W 31 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30	Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/9	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	-18.0	53.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/16	Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech	-11.5	52.5	L 7 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/23	Western Kentucky at Liberty	+1.0	56.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State	+0.5	62.5	W 19 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/6	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	+4.5	58.5	L 12 - 52	O	N
Wed 12/18	Western Kentucky vs James Madison	+7.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Jacksonville State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina	-3.5	54.5	L 27 - 55	O	N
Sat 9/7	Jacksonville State at Louisville	+27.5	56.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/14	Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan	-2.5	53.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/21	Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss	-6.0	59.5	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/4	Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State	-17.5	49.5	W 63 - 24	O	Y
Wed 10/9	Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State	-21.0	58.5	W 54 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23	Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee	-20.5	64.5	W 42 - 20	U	Y
Wed 10/30	Jacksonville State at Liberty	+2.5	64.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech	-10.0	55.5	W 44 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/16	Jacksonville State vs Florida International	-12.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston	-5.5	57.5	W 21 - 11	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky	-0.5	62.5	L 17 - 19	U	N
Fri 12/6	Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky	-4.5	58.5	W 52 - 12	O	Y
Fri 12/20	Jacksonville State vs Ohio	+6.5	57.5	L 27 - 30	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)	24.9	38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)	24.6	48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
JVST	#22 (.27)	45% (35)	36	49% (18)	3.36 (17)	254	40% (95)	189	4.85 (3)	#55 (.14)	43% (84)	26.1	44% (79)	43% (85)	3.81 (70)	58.4	1.1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)		38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)		48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
JVST	#22 (.27)	45% (35)		49% (18)	3.36 (17)	254	40% (95)	189	4.85 (3)	#55 (.14)	43% (84)		44% (79)	43% (85)	3.81 (70)	58.4	1.1	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	14	24.9	24.9	41.8%	3.83	1.7	19	374	110	265	3.5	45%	55%	38%	45%	16%	.19
JVST Defense	14	26.1	21.3	43.2%	3.81	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	44%	43%	16%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	14	24.6	33.9	44.7%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	63%	36%	48%	40%	13%	.21
JVST Offense	14	36	39.1	45.2%	4.85	1.1	23	443	254	189	5.5	64%	36%	49%	40%	11%	.27

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	14	27:52	19.3	41%	59%	4.1	41.3	1.7	1.5	4.9	1.6	0	29.7
Jacksonville State	14	26:57	22.6	41%	54%	6	58.4	1.1	1.6	5.6	1.7	1	28.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	14	45% (105)	38% (117)	31.1	109.7	3.5	14 (98)	.01 (121)	2.78 (108)	69% (100)	11% (87)	0.95 (75)
JVST Defense	14	54% (108)	44% (79)	-	-	-	-	.09 (52)	3.01 (72)	63% (20)	10% (59)	0.88 (22)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	14	63% (134)	48% (113)	-	-	-	-	.19 (103)	3.36 (116)	77% (93)	9% (88)	0.9 (35)
JVST Offense	14	64% (4)	49% (18)	45.9	253.6	5.5	51 (1)	.25 (15)	3.36 (17)	67% (107)	8% (23)	1.07 (32)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	14	55% (26)	45% (33)	22.1	33.5	264.6	7.9	12	28 (15)	12 (85)	.36 (28)	1.6 (59)	33% (91)	30% (91)	.29 (89)	6% (56)	1.9 (100)
JVST Defense	14	46% (27)	43% (85)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.21 (55)	1.5 (56)	30% (102)	33% (105)	.36 (92)	6% (63)	2 (45)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	14	36% (1)	40% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (99)	1.8 (128)	28% (116)	29% (47)	.23 (37)	3% (132)	2.1 (92)
JVST Offense	14	36% (131)	40% (95)	13.4	22.3	189.4	8.5	14.1	14 (108)	7 (26)	.33 (35)	1.9 (5)	27% (10)	32% (65)	.33 (72)	3% (8)	2.1 (51)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -8.09 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -8.09 Jacksonville State: -0.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.2 Jacksonville State: -1.0

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -0.895 #85
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 24.74 #21
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 10.35 #76
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Jacksonville State's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Jacksonville State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #57
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.9
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.9

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Jacksonville State 31
Western Kentucky 26

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Jacksonville State 28
Western Kentucky 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Jacksonville State 33
Western Kentucky 25

Total Points: 58

Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 36 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.1
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Jacksonville State's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Jacksonville State	37	Western Kentucky	34	Western Kentucky -1.5	Jacksonville State	56.5	Over
2024	11/30	Western Kentucky	19	Jacksonville State	17	Jacksonville State -0.5	Western Kentucky	62.5	Under
2024	12/06	Jacksonville State	52	Western Kentucky	12	Jacksonville State -4.5	Jacksonville State	58.5	Over
2023	10/17	Jacksonville State	20	Western Kentucky	17	Western Kentucky -7.5	Jacksonville State	60.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Jacksonville State	3	3	2 Overs
Western Kentucky	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	4 - 0	1 - 0	3 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	0 - 4	0 - 3	0 - 1

(#92) WKU at (#85) JVST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	JVST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#92	#85
SP+SP+	#78	#73
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#68
OffenseOff	#60	#33
DefenseDef	#81	#84
Spec TeamsST	#79	#132
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#53

Western Kentucky Notes(12/18) Zero Rgame/OL bad in bowl. QB Vetkamp great
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
(8/3) TO luck big LY, regression? Off Great, D Awful
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Jacksonville State Notes(12/21) Hired HC C Kelly (Aub Co-DC, 1st time HC)
(12/2) Rgame good, Pass bad, 2-13 on 3rd, QB Huff hurt
(12/2) L to WKU, held to 13 1st downs (season low)
(12/1) QB Huff inj (ankle) in finale. ? in CUSA title gm
(11/25) Rgame mauled Sam H, clinched CUSA title game
(11/18) Fight w/ FIU? Def awful esp Run, Rgame great
(11/1) 4-0, avg 28 ppg margin in Oct, although lowering
(10/30) RB Steward 232 yds, 8.6, 4 TD in Liberty upset
(10/30) Won five straight after bad 0-3 start to '24
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/4) Killed S Miss. Off improving, QB Huff dual threat
(9/23) Rough start, Def awful. QB Huff is good though
Jacksonville State Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	JVST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#60	#84
SuccessSuc	#83	#84
ExplosiveExp	#33	#27
PPAPPA	#66	#55
PowerPwr	#71	#76
SP+SP+	#101	#81
Pts POPPO	#78	#70
HavocHav	#73	#66

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	JVST Def
Run GameRun	#114	#60
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#79
Run ExplRExp	#75	#22
PPAExp	#121	#52
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#103	#63
TackleTak	-	#24

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	JVST Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#33	#85
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#56
PPAExp	#28	#55
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#121
F7 HavocF7	#87	#59
DB HavocDB	#56	#63

Jacksonville State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#33	#81
SuccessSuc	#35	#102
ExplosiveExp	#30	#36
PPAPPA	#22	#95
PowerPwr	#21	#86
SP+SP+	#57	#62
Pts POPPO	#3	#54
HavocHav	#7	#122

Jacksonville State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#11	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#113
Run ExplRExp	#32	#35
PPAExp	#15	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#17	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#31	#128
TackleTak	-	#6

Jacksonville State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#53	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#95	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#128
PPAExp	#35	#99
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#93	#42
F7 HavocF7	#23	#88
DB HavocDB	#8	#132

Program Comparison
JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in JSU Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 38°

Rematch from Week 15
Jacksonville State -4.5 (58.5)
Jacksonville State won vs Western Kentucky this year (52-12)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky last year (52-12)
Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (20-17)

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caden Veltkamp	258	389	66%	3108	25	10	8.0
TJ Finley (Tr)	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	201	883	3	4.4	30
George Hart III (Tr)	44	204	2	4.6	30
Caden Veltkamp	113	150	7	1.3	25
LT Sanders	21	103	1	4.9	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)	75	925	7	12.3	51
Easton Messer	55	793	4	14.4	64
Dalvin Smith	30	397	4	13.2	65
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)	99	2	0	0	0
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2
Hosea Wheeler	62	4	2	2	0
Chandler Matthews (Tr)	59	3	0	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Thomas	54	7	4	3	0
Sebastian Benjamin	56	6	4	5	0
Kylan Guidry	45	7	3	0	1
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Johnson Jr.	48	5	0	1	6
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2

JVST's OC Rod Smith (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Huff (Tr)	178	293	61%	2543	14	7	8.7
Logan Smothers	11	19	58%	123	0	0	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Stewart	279	1636	25	5.9	75
Tyler Huff (Tr)	227	1344	15	5.9	51
Logan Smothers	22	175	3	8.0	72
Andrew Paul (Tr)	38	166	4	4.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Vaughn	49	804	5	16.4	75
Michael Pettway	25	454	3	18.2	92
Brock Rechsteiner	16	241	2	15.1	85
Tre Stewart	17	233	1	13.7	50

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Luke Olson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fred Perry	109	10	3	2	2
Antonio Carter II (Tr)	103	3	0	1	3
Reginald Hughes (Tr)	83	10	4	6	0
Laletia Hale	80	8	4	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reginald Hughes (Tr)	83	10	4	6	0
Laletia Hale	80	8	4	2	3
Jaylen Swain	44	11	4	2	0
Fred Perry	109	10	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jabari Mack	32	2	11
Zechariah Poyser	77	3	8
Geimere Latimer	46	0	5