Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee - 2024 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Western Kentucky -10.5 (53.5) (-275) Open: -7.5 | 54.5
Western Kentucky 49 - Middle Tennessee: 21 (Conference USA)

Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Western Kentucky -16.5 (SP+ WKU -22)
Projected Score: WKU: 35 - MTSU: 19 (54)
WKU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
WKU Travel: 79 miles

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Western Kentucky at Alabama	+31.0	60.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/7	Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-18.5	59.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee	-10.5	53.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Western Kentucky vs Toledo	+2.0	60.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Western Kentucky at Boston College	+7.5	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Western Kentucky vs UTEP	-19.0	55.5	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/16	Western Kentucky at Sam Houston	+1.5	55.0	W 31 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30	Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/9	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	-18.0	53.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/16	Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech	-11.5	52.5	L 7 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/23	Western Kentucky at Liberty	+1.0	56.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State	+0.5	62.5	W 19 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/6	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	+4.5	58.5	L 12 - 52	O	N
Wed 12/18	Western Kentucky vs James Madison	+7.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech	-11.5
Sat 9/7	Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss	+42.5	60.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/14	Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky	+10.5	53.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Middle Tennessee vs Duke	+14.5	51.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Memphis	+27.0	62.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech	+5.0	48.0	L 21 - 48	O	N
Tue 10/15	Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State	-8.5	50.0	W 14 - 5	U	Y
Wed 10/23	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	+20.5	64.5	L 20 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/2	Middle Tennessee at UTEP	+2.0	48.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Middle Tennessee vs Liberty	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State	-3.5	54.0	L 21 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/30	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	+9.5	50.5	L 24 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#47 (.22)	40% (92)	29.5	38% (119)	3.07 (78)	107	41% (70)	295	4.95 (6)	#81 (.2)	44% (98)	22.8	48% (121)	41% (53)	4 (87)	36.8	1.8	1.8
MTSU	#95 (.14)	39% (104)	22.4	41% (93)	3.08 (74)	126	39% (94)	266	3.2 (115)	#60 (.17)	43% (81)	30.9	45% (88)	42% (78)	4.13 (100)	56.3	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	13	29.5	24.5	40%	4.95	1.8	20	402	107	295	3.9	38%	61%	38%	41%	16%	.22
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	32.5	42.9%	4.13	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	17%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	13	22.8	28	44%	4	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	48%	41%	14%	.2
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	24	39.4%	3.2	1.8	19	391	126	266	3.9	42%	57%	41%	39%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	13	29:32	20.2	43%	62%	4.5	36.8	1.8	1.8	4.4	2	1	28.2
Middle Tennessee	12	28:32	19.3	40%	45%	6.8	56.3	1.8	1.3	5.8	1.9	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (119)	27.5	106.6	3.9	12 (116)	.06 (117)	3.07 (78)	76% (45)	8% (23)	0.93 (99)
MTSU Defense	12	47% (30)	45% (88)	-	-	-	-	.06 (24)	2.97 (43)	71% (57)	10% (65)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	13	52% (94)	48% (121)	-	-	-	-	.19 (98)	3.47 (125)	73% (65)	9% (109)	0.96 (45)
MTSU Offense	12	42% (117)	41% (93)	32	125.5	3.9	13 (108)	.1 (93)	3.08 (74)	79% (22)	11% (95)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	13	61% (6)	41% (70)	26.4	41.5	295.2	7.1	11.2	38 (3)	14 (107)	.35 (42)	1.7 (29)	33% (90)	31% (69)	.39 (46)	9% (128)	2.4 (4)
MTSU Defense	12	52% (104)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (96)	1.5 (47)	30% (104)	32% (90)	.35 (88)	7% (31)	2.2 (100)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	13	47% (37)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.27 (64)	1.6 (69)	31% (80)	32% (99)	.37 (97)	6% (81)	1.9 (26)
MTSU Offense	12	57% (18)	39% (94)	24.6	36.5	265.6	7.3	10.8	23 (51)	13 (97)	.24 (84)	1.6 (59)	34% (101)	26% (110)	.24 (94)	6% (70)	2.3 (6)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -8.09 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -8.09 Middle Tennessee: -21.84

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.2 Middle Tennessee: -24.4

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -21.84 #130
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 35
Middle Tennessee 19

Projected Total Points: 54

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Western Kentucky	42	Middle Tennessee	26	Western Kentucky -13.5	Western Kentucky	51.5	Over
2024	09/14	Middle Tennessee	21	Western Kentucky	49	Western Kentucky -10.5	Western Kentucky	53.5	Over
2023	09/28	Western Kentucky	31	Middle Tennessee	10	Western Kentucky -6.5	Western Kentucky	61.0	Under
2022	10/15	Middle Tennessee	17	Western Kentucky	35	Western Kentucky -7.5	Western Kentucky	67.5	Under
2021	11/06	Western Kentucky	48	Middle Tennessee	21	Western Kentucky -17.5	Western Kentucky	66.5	Over
2020	10/03	Middle Tennessee	17	Western Kentucky	20	Western Kentucky -7.0	Middle Tennessee	52.5	Under
2019	11/30	Western Kentucky	31	Middle Tennessee	26	Western Kentucky -10.5	Middle Tennessee	46.0	Over
2018	11/02	Middle Tennessee	29	Western Kentucky	10	Middle Tennessee -13.5	Middle Tennessee	53.0	Under
2017	11/17	Western Kentucky	41	Middle Tennessee	38	Middle Tennessee -1	Western Kentucky	56.0	Over
2016	10/15	Middle Tennessee	43	Western Kentucky	44	Middle Tennessee -2.5	Western Kentucky	75.0	Over
2015	10/10	Western Kentucky	58	Middle Tennessee	28	Western Kentucky -7.5	Western Kentucky	69.5	Over
2014	09/13	Middle Tennessee	50	Western Kentucky	47	Middle Tennessee -1	Middle Tennessee	0
2012	11/01	Western Kentucky	29	Middle Tennessee	34
2011	10/06	Middle Tennessee	33	Western Kentucky	36
2010	11/20	Western Kentucky	26	Middle Tennessee	27
2009	10/24	Middle Tennessee	62	Western Kentucky	24
2008	11/15	Western Kentucky	10	Middle Tennessee	21
2007	09/20	Middle Tennessee	17	Western Kentucky	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	6	4	7 Overs
Western Kentucky	12	8	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 9	8 - 4	6 - 2	2 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 9	4 - 8	2 - 2	2 - 6

(#92) WKU at (#130) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	MTSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#92	#130
SP+SP+	#78	#131
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#132
OffenseOff	#60	#125
DefenseDef	#81	#129
Spec TeamsST	#79	#120
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#102

Western Kentucky Notes(12/18) Zero Rgame/OL bad in bowl. QB Vetkamp great
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
(8/3) TO luck big LY, regression? Off Great, D Awful
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Notes(8/3) Will start 1-4, watch after bye on Oct 3
(10/22) Def stop rate 49% (#120) into week 9
(10/16) #3 Worst Rgame/OL in CFB. Ken St. dominated
(10/15) Given up 19 sacks, most in CUSA through week 8
(10/10) Killed by L.Tech, Def shreaded, Rgame awful
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Run Off/Def near bottom
(9/5) Lost best OL C Pierce (leg) for the season
(8/3) Def will be near last vs run, DL just poor
(7/30) QB Vattiato good dual threat has WR/TE weapons
(7/30) OL a huge ? but RB room is good/deep.
(7/30) Def portaled out, will take lumps early (often?)
(7/30) A D Mason team has to win with Off? Sept rough
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	MTSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#60	#129
SuccessSuc	#92	#81
ExplosiveExp	#8	#23
PPAPPA	#47	#60
PowerPwr	#71	#131
SP+SP+	#101	#122
Pts POPPO	#6	#100
HavocHav	#74	#49

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#114	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#119	#88
Run ExplRExp	#99	#13
PPAExp	#117	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#19	#31
TackleTak	-	#83

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#29	#47
PPAExp	#42	#96
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#131
F7 HavocF7	#23	#65
DB HavocDB	#128	#31

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#81
SuccessSuc	#104	#98
ExplosiveExp	#14	#41
PPAPPA	#95	#81
PowerPwr	#105	#86
SP+SP+	#131	#62
Pts POPPO	#115	#87
HavocHav	#89	#114

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#77	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#121
Run ExplRExp	#28	#45
PPAExp	#93	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#74	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#118
TackleTak	-	#6

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#33	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#53
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#69
PPAExp	#84	#64
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#136	#42
F7 HavocF7	#95	#109
DB HavocDB	#70	#81

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 73°

Rematch from Week 3
Western Kentucky 10.5 (53.5)
Western Kentucky won at Middle Tennessee this year (49-21)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee last year (42-26)
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee in 2024 (49-21)
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (31-10)

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caden Veltkamp	258	389	66%	3108	25	10	8.0
TJ Finley (Tr)	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	201	883	3	4.4	30
George Hart III (Tr)	44	204	2	4.6	30
Caden Veltkamp	113	150	7	1.3	25
LT Sanders	21	103	1	4.9	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)	75	925	7	12.3	51
Easton Messer	55	793	4	14.4	64
Dalvin Smith	30	397	4	13.2	65
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)	99	2	0	0	0
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2
Hosea Wheeler	62	4	2	2	0
Chandler Matthews (Tr)	59	3	0	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Thomas	54	7	4	3	0
Sebastian Benjamin	56	6	4	5	0
Kylan Guidry	45	7	3	0	1
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Johnson Jr.	48	5	0	1	6
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	269	418	64%	3092	16	10	7.4
Roman Gagliano	4	9	44%	41	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle	109	471	4	4.3	66
Jekail Middlebrook	60	273	2	4.6	24
Terry Wilkins	54	214	1	4.0	23
Nick Vattiato	86	77	1	0.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis	53	871	6	16.4	61
Omari Kelly (Tr)	53	869	4	16.4	71
Myles Butler	30	366	3	12.2	61
Cam'Ron Lacy	20	190	0	9.5	44

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	0	0	3
Parker Hughes	69	2	0	1	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	37	4	3	5	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1
Aidan Butts	10	2	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyrell Raby	16	0	6
Marvae Myers-Glover	41	1	4
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	3