UTEP at Liberty - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (6:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -23.5 (57.5) (-2500) Open: -22.0 | 57.5
Liberty 28 - UTEP: 10 (Conference USA)

Miners (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (20 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Liberty -26 (SP+ LIB -23)
Projected Score: UTEP: 15 - LIB: 41 (56)
LIB Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
UTEP Travel: 1596 miles, 2 hrs behind

Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UTEP Players
LIB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UTEP's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UTEP at Nebraska	+27.5	49.0	L 7 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/7	UTEP vs Southern Utah	-6.5	54.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/14	UTEP at Liberty	+23.5	57.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	UTEP at Colorado State	+8.5	49.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/3	UTEP vs Sam Houston	+10.0	49.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Thu 10/10	UTEP at Western Kentucky	+19.0	55.5	L 17 - 44	O	N
Wed 10/16	UTEP vs Florida International	+7.0	47.0	W 30 - 21	O	Y
Tue 10/22	UTEP at Louisiana Tech	+6.5	49.0	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	UTEP vs Middle Tennessee	-2.0	48.0	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	UTEP vs Kennesaw State	-4.5	42.0	W 43 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UTEP at Tennessee	+41.5	54.0	L 0 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/30	UTEP at New Mexico State	+3.5	51.5	W 42 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Liberty's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Liberty vs Campbell	-41.5	58.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/7	Liberty at New Mexico State	-22.5	54.5	W 30 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Liberty vs UTEP	-23.5	57.5	W 28 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	Liberty vs East Carolina	-7.5	55.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8	Liberty vs Florida International	-15.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23	Liberty at Kennesaw State	-27.0	48.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Wed 10/30	Liberty vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	64.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/9	Liberty at Middle Tennessee	-12.5	54.5	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Liberty at Massachusetts	-17.0	53.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/23	Liberty vs Western Kentucky	-1.0	56.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Liberty at Sam Houston	-2.5	47.5	L 18 - 20	U	N
Sat 1/4	Liberty vs Buffalo	+4.5	50.5	L 7 - 26	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP	#80 (.17)	39% (103)	23.3	43% (62)	3.05 (83)	144	36% (113)	218	3.59 (93)	#109 (.25)	43% (88)	30.4	48% (122)	38% (23)	4.62 (127)	58.8	1.5	1
LIB	#3 (.43)	54% (3)	25.6	56% (3)	3.77 (2)	281	51% (8)	197	4.54 (20)	#59 (.17)	42% (73)	26.5	47% (111)	40% (49)	3.63 (54)	59	1.1	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Offense	12	23.3	20.2	39.5%	3.59	1.5	18	362	144	218	3.9	53%	46%	43%	36%	16%	.17
LIB Defense	14	26.5	27.3	42.3%	3.63	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	43%	55%	47%	40%	18%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Defense	12	30.4	37.4	43.4%	4.62	1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	48%	38%	15%	.25
LIB Offense	14	25.6	31.5	54.2%	4.54	1.1	24	478	281	197	6.1	68%	32%	56%	51%	7%	.43

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UTEP	12	31:25	18.3	33%	45%	6.8	58.8	1.5	1	4.3	2	1	26.1
Liberty	14	31:18	23.6	50%	55%	5.9	59	1.1	1.7	4.9	1.7	2	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Offense	12	53% (42)	43% (62)	37.3	144.3	3.9	16 (89)	.09 (105)	3.05 (83)	76% (44)	9% (51)	0.89 (119)
LIB Defense	14	43% (9)	47% (111)	-	-	-	-	.19 (94)	3.14 (77)	75% (86)	10% (84)	0.97 (49)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Defense	12	57% (126)	48% (122)	-	-	-	-	.28 (127)	3.35 (113)	76% (89)	9% (106)	1.1 (112)
LIB Offense	14	68% (4)	56% (3)	45.9	281.3	6.1	39 (2)	.35 (3)	3.77 (2)	85% (4)	5% (1)	0.98 (81)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Offense	12	46% (94)	36% (113)	14.8	27.5	217.7	7.9	14.7	13 (111)	12 (85)	.29 (68)	1.9 (6)	32% (82)	29% (82)	.34 (65)	7% (104)	2.1 (37)
LIB Defense	14	55% (125)	40% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	21 (1)	.23 (48)	1.6 (84)	31% (77)	29% (48)	.17 (9)	9% (6)	2.1 (94)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Defense	12	43% (8)	38% (23)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.26 (61)	1.7 (104)	32% (67)	31% (87)	.48 (126)	7% (50)	2.3 (128)
LIB Offense	14	32% (130)	51% (8)	11.6	19.9	196.9	9.9	16.9	31 (14)	5 (6)	.65 (2)	1.9 (9)	23% (2)	38% (13)	.59 (8)	2% (2)	2.3 (18)

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -23.79 #127
UTEP's Offense Rating: 10.45 #128
UTEP's Defense Rating: 12.53 #95
2024 Talent Rating: 195.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
UTEP's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UTEP's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.7 #130
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -23.79 Liberty: 2.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -22.7 Liberty: 0.2

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 2.89 #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
2024 Talent Rating: 274.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

UTEP's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 41
UTEP 15

Projected Total Points: 56

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/08	UTEP	8	Liberty	19	Liberty -1.5	Liberty	46.5	Under
2024	09/14	Liberty	28	UTEP	10	Liberty -23.5	UTEP	57.5	Under
2023	11/25	UTEP	28	Liberty	42	Liberty -18.0	UTEP	54.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Liberty	3	1	1 Overs
UTEP	0	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0

(#127) UTEP at (#60) LIB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTEP	LIB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#127	#60
SP+SP+	#130	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#130	#36
OffenseOff	#127	#21
DefenseDef	#105	#73
Spec TeamsST	#136	#98
TalentTal	#118	#84
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#82

UTEP Notes(12/11) Joining MWC on July 1, 2026
(10/23) Locklear benched in La Tech, Fr JD Pickles no arm
(10/18) QB Locklear #1 (benched earlier) w/ McConnell out
(10/17) Def 4 TOs, 3 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 FIU QBs knocked out
(10/16) Every Defensive starter listed as SR or GR
(10/10) Better vs WKU, expl plays. Def just can't hold up
(10/3) Off a mess, TO's, flags, drops. Def plays hard
(10/2) Def better than #'s, Off is awful. WR worst
(9/8) Outrushed 268-124 by S. Utah? Run D awful
(8/3) Front 7 decimated, will be bad vs run TY
(7/30) Portal 27 in/38 out, took 11 portals from A Peay
(7/30) QB Battle Locklear(A.P.)/McConnell some PT LY
UTEP Injury Report

Liberty Notes(11/25) Rgame 400+ yds (WKU), W vs SHSU=CUSA title gm
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
(7/30) QB Salter is v good & mobile. Best backfield in G5?
Liberty Injury Report

UTEP on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	LIB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#127	#73
SuccessSuc	#103	#73
ExplosiveExp	#49	#85
PPAPPA	#80	#59
PowerPwr	#128	#38
SP+SP+	#131	#70
Pts POPPO	#93	#54
HavocHav	#72	#30

UTEP Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#121	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#111
Run ExplRExp	#119	#49
PPAExp	#105	#94
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#83	#77
Stuff RateStuff	#98	#59
TackleTak	-	#71

UTEP Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#113	#49
Pass ExplPExl	#6	#84
PPAExp	#68	#48
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#67
F7 HavocF7	#51	#84
DB HavocDB	#104	#6

Liberty on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	UTEP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#105
SuccessSuc	#3	#88
ExplosiveExp	#94	#90
PPAPPA	#3	#109
PowerPwr	#17	#95
SP+SP+	#60	#113
Pts POPPO	#20	#127
HavocHav	#1	#88

Liberty Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#39	#86
Run SuccessRSuc	#3	#122
Run ExplRExp	#81	#112
PPAExp	#3	#127
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#12	#72
TackleTak	-	#51

Liberty Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#38	#118
Pass SuccessPSuc	#8	#23
Pass ExplPExl	#9	#104
PPAExp	#2	#61
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#81
F7 HavocF7	#1	#106
DB HavocDB	#2	#50

Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

UTEP 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
Liberty -23.5 (57.5)
Liberty won vs UTEP this year (28-10)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat UTEP last year (19-8)
Liberty beat UTEP in 2024 (28-10)
Liberty beat UTEP in 2023 (42-28)

UTEP's OC Jake Brown (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	149	236	63%	1591	10	6	6.7
Cade McConnell	40	71	56%	540	4	3	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jevon Jackson (Tr)	191	754	4	3.9	42
Ezell Jolly	64	248	1	3.9	14
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	80	237	2	3.0	18
JP Pickles	39	133	1	3.4	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenny Odom (Tr)	47	761	8	16.2	76
Kam Thomas (Tr)	46	512	2	11.1	69
Trey Goodman (Tr)	47	469	0	10.0	37
Jaden Smith (Tr)	21	177	0	8.4	41

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC J. J. Clark (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dorian Hopkins (Tr)	87	8	1	0	1
Nate Dyman	84	10	2	3	4
Xavier Smith (Tr)	78	1	0	0	5
Kory Chapman (Tr)	76	13	3	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maurice Westmoreland	45	9	8	6	1
Kyran Duhon	43	7	7	0	2
Kadarion Johnson	39	8	4	1	1
Kory Chapman (Tr)	76	13	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Smith (Tr)	78	1	0	0	5
Josiah Allen	61	5	2	0	5
Nate Dyman	84	10	2	3	4

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	147	261	56%	1886	15	6	7.2
Ryan Burger (Tr)	8	19	42%	88	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley	205	1254	13	6.1	44
Billy Lucas	123	720	5	5.9	55
Kaidon Salter	114	587	7	5.1	41
Vaughn Blue	35	207	1	5.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Treon Sibley	28	510	2	18.2	70
Elijah Canion (Tr)	25	354	3	14.2	50
Reese Smith	18	277	4	15.4	44
Tyson Mobley (Tr)	29	276	1	9.5	25

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
Jerome Jolly Jr.	55	5	1	1	1
CJ Bazile Jr.	54	5	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
CJ Bazile Jr.	54	5	2	2	0
Quinton Reese	40	5	2	1	0
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3
A'Khori Jones	53	5	0	0	3